Matters arising from latest Blowback of Kenyan State Clientism

Introduction

The media has been abuzz in the last 2 weeks with the targeted attack on a select target in Kenya by Somalia’s non-state violence purveyor, Al-Shabab.  Apart from the usual media razzmatazz, there were important issues already on operation before the attack with potential to re-occur in future. These issues are part of Kenya’s DNA. With the media circus out of the way it is justified to highlight this incident based on world-system framework and invisibility periscope.

Foreign Policy Agenda

Kenya is an interesting place and a periphery country despite her potentials. It is one of the few African countries where the military has never tasted power so far since independence. However despite her painful independence struggle against the British who unleashed genocide as fallout of world war experience, Nairobi political elite has constituently maintained a pro-Western foreign policy which was consolidated towards Washington DC under Mr Daniel Arap Moi. He sedimented Nairobi’s role in geopolitics as a client state of United States and her remora (UK) which managed Nairobi desk in the face of sustained US ambivalent African policy.

This meant that US interest in the proximity of East Africa and the Horn is likely to be facilitated unchallenged by Nairobi and this was the case in the 1970s and 1980s. The collapse of USSR opened her to competitors as Ethiopia swung around with the flight of Col Mengistu, the revival of Entebbe under Mr Museveni and lately Kigali post-genocide.  Nevertheless it has been a refreshing and calm neighbourhood. Nairobi proved her mettle in facilitating Israeli raid on Entebbe that refuelled in Nairobi on the rift-valley radar evading mission. Ex-president Kibaki and current president Mr Kenyatta have not departed from this foreign policy orientation.

Somalia Factor

Funny enough Somalia is one of those countries or political spaces one expects to have political stability in the possession of a common language and a population consisting of one people divided between 2 clans. Some of these family members extend into Kenya and Ethiopia as a result of Berlin Conference inconsideration but adhered-to boundary delineations. Somalia is not and has never been a security/strategic threat to Nairobi even with the collapse of Said Barre’s government, the last government in Somalia for decades.

Kenyan political elite are aware of this dimension however for parochial interest in personal enhancement blindly pursue a policy that placed Somalia or Somalis as enemies.  The ill-fated assault of Mogadishu (mineral resources) by US led troops in early 1990s led Washington DC to go ‘lite’ by ushering clients like Nairobi to carry the burden, to fulfil no-boots-on-the-ground. By accepting this poisoned chalice, Kenyan political and foreign policy experts opened a can of worms whose dividends can only be exhausted violently by time. There is no reason or interest for Kenya in Somalia. Somalia is not a threat to Nairobi and any military engagement or invasion of the former by the latter is bound to blowback contrary to attribution to corruption by select western armchair ‘analysts’.

Blowback Party a la Nairobi

Nairobi’s dalliance in clientism has brought a number of dividends. Unfortunately the violent dividends has been selective in the victims that are targeted. The 1998 explosion of Nairobi US embassy is an example where common people rather than the elites bore the brunt of reverse attack on non-independent non-state violence purveyors.  Importantly target locations are always upscale and swanky locations with high proportion of elite (core) investments that target ordinary people (periphery) disposable income. In the US embassy case, most of the dead were ordinary people who have nothing to do against Somalia. The latest attach bears the mark of targeted high investment location of used dependents on common people for profit.

Targeting the rich and powerful is not usually the case for avengers with limited resources. Funny enough when the news reached the airwaves, the body counts highlights those of foreigners while that of Kenyans are counted as given. Orientalism in practice! Al-Shabab can never invade Kenya rather in their bid to attack symbols of Kenya power and prowess, ordinary innocent Kenyans will be caught down. These Kenyans are different and reside farther away from the rich and powerful unlike the line taken by the foreign minister who careers placed her outside more than inside the country for nearly 3 decades.

Powerful Enemy within

No matter how much this latest incident is spun it remains in the background of violence in Kenya a minor spur.  State and elite-sponsored violence in Kenya is a matter that apparently took over from British pre-independence national security initiatives. Various governments from Jomo Kenyatta promoted law & order which is another guise to arrest, torture, imprison indefinitely and genocide. Mr Daniel Arap Moi turned it into a national past-time as repression, mass arrest, mass imprisonment and genocide because first line of citizens handling. The 1984 Wajir massacre by Kenyan security forces under Mr Moi made global headlines with over 400 men killed. Other massacres include Malkameri in 1996, Garissa in 1980, Madogashe in 1982 and Bagala in 1989.

By coincidence, most of the victims are ethnic Somalis. Till today there is no record of comprehensive investigation and retribution.  A sitting Foreign Minister, Dr Robert Ouko was cut down by invisible hands of the state he served as her top diplomat. One of the foremost Kenya’s writers, Ngugi wa Thiongo, himself a victim of state repression, is probably one of the lucky ones alive. Even the election war of 2007/8 took more lives of ordinary Kenyans at the instigation of their powerful compatriots. So we argue that Kenya’s enemy is not anyone in the neighborhood, or Al-Qaida or Al-Shabab. No amount of media spotlight will hide this crucial fact nor standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the hegemon can obliterate the cry of innocent blood shed by kenya’s elite.

Masters in (taking Advantage) Diplomacy

Event of the last few days has catapulted the art of diplomacy to the firmament of dazzle as various stakeholders in the Syrian conflict found themselves (and their interests) diametrically removed from initial positions. Beyond the biased pontifications of various groups, somehow diplomacy resurrected from the abyss of near-neglect to the high throne of attention with minor effort from smart reaction.

For many watchers of events the gradual decline of so-called democracy and their arch apostles followed by potency of power-is-might, the high priest of democrazy, USA, since 1991 has consolidated her grip on dismantling what remain of Treaty of Westphalia and associated definition of nation-state. For Washington DC states are insignificant vehicles for advancing strategic interest of the most powerful global elites with brute violence. In the rabid hunt to secure scarce mineral resources and coral emerging markets for the highest profits, the last decade has seen US dismantle 3 countries with little to show those whose erstwhile countries are ‘liberated’.

As Syria remains in the crosshairs of potential surgical strike of US armament, a twist took place with all the trappings of unquantifiable hubris in addition to heavy dose of diplomatic inexperience. Despite domestic and international stomach-ache for another conflict, US Secretary of State, John Kerry, arrived in London, the hotspot of poodlism and remora geopolitics, to declare his next ‘sermon on Whitehall’ in contradiction to earlier unambiguous rejection of war by British Parliament. Very disrespectful of British people!

In a near state of trance this imperial inexperienced diplomat open his being to a perfect declaration of invincibility in creating and destroying scenarios without care for consequences. Above all he judged it impossible for Damascus to be rational. Sadly he not only forgot that his counterparts in Damascus, Teheran and Moscow were attentive in real-time. Like the best strikers in the world, an opponent’s error in the penalty box is a welcome gift, these savvy men of diplomacy gave US an own goal with clinical finish. It was not just an excellent finish, it turned to be rescuing stroke for US President and his pack of global elites. Another lesson in diplomacy in a highly connected world! Be mindful of your mouth especially if it is a basket.

Contrasting Mr Kerry and the Russian Foreign Minister, Mr Lavrov shows a sharp contrast between a gung-ho high walker and a consummate professional with many years of experience. The confidence, language, composition and nuanced of Russia’s top diplomat is stratospheric. Foreign ministers look ugly with lack of confidence, devoid of nuance and careless with words. Mr Kerry cut a lonely figure just like US among the comity of nations.

Lastly the dissimilarity struck poignantly yesterday night in Geneva press conference of the first meeting between Mr Kerry and Mr Lavrov since the debacle of monumental proportion with Mr Kerry caught out again when he ‘missed’ part of a translation of his Russian speech where simply warned that ‘Diplomacy likes silence’.

In this diplomatic pugilism, Mr Lavrov couldn’t have helped to confirm that he is a master of diplomacy. Important to chancelleries around the world especially Washington DC!

Matters Arising from Slavery and UK inter-generational Historical Outcomes

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/27/britain-slave-trade

Tent, Upheavals and National Security

Introduction

The last 2 years has accelerated with precision characteristic hubris of imperialistic machine in North Africa. It is important to stress that Africa is a single continental block including her continental shelves, islands and peoples. Acts of imperial preponderance with associated metageographical reconfigurations which attempt to partition or decapitate the continent are time-constrained for each imperial power. Therefore one should not be confused with the concept of ‘Middle East’ that includes contiguous parts of Africa. Be that as it were, the focus of the piece is to highlight what amounts to geopolitical 419 in the name of ‘revolutions’ executed with clinical efficiency as it simultaneously simulates national security loses in the national security crisis.

Flag of the Tent

Tents have many meanings but more so to nomadic and desert communities. Considering the harsh climatic conditions that necessitated their emergence, functionally they are complete in the face of the elements. The howling dry winds, harsh hot storms and deadly sandstorms abet for those staying tents. It is a bastion of security in its unique place and time. Of course majority of human population who have been relatively sedentary have cultivated superiority in their perceptions of tents as fit only for the less Other.

In the last few decades, tents warmed their way into international diplomacy in a curious way. For many observers it represented nothing short of irrationality at best and mediaeval at worst. Nevertheless those who pitch their tents in the face of severe geopolitical machinations though they later lost were prescient.  It is not lost on anyone that late Libyan president, Col Muammar Ghaddafi, raised the flag of illegal surveillance and gradual emergence of surveillance geopolitics but was dismissed.  On a number of occasions be it state visits or visit to United Nations in US, this leader preferred pitching his tent in an open space or rather created Libya in a temporary abrogation of imposed metageographical construction. Diplomats and Heads of State stay in posh hotels and special houses in the hosting countries.

With the emergence of Wikileaks and Mr Edward Snowden, it is clear that Col Ghaddafi was not only ahead of the times but his allergy confirmed the massive surveillance machine then dismissed as irrationality. It is now common knowledge that US regime’s surveillance apparatus has no regard for diplomatic norms and international conduction as United Nations diplomats and visiting Heads of States are fair game. Overt and covert operations are deployed to capture voice record, passwords and DNA of the gullible lot. So much for staying in real houses and hobnobbing with ‘friends and allies’! Only time will reveal how much intel have been creamed off Nigerian diplomats abroad and in the External Affairs Ministry Abuja by US surveillance machine!

Upheavals in the North

A few years ago rent-a-crowd of a different kinds started mutating in various North African countries.  Talk of democracy increased as economies of United States and European Union started heaving like emphysema patients. With populations in various shapes of political maturity drifting in and out awareness coma, they were bombarded with strong advertisement of ‘liberty and freedom’ and ‘revolution’. With unprecedented firepower where applicable colonial war for scarce resources were unleashed with genocidal aplomb in a ‘Yes, we can’ charisma from the ‘rear’; communities became entombed.

Rewind to the present Libya which is no longer a state, Egypt is haemorrhaging, Tunisia barely sleep-walking and ‘revolutions’ were affirmed without change of power from the ruling class to the ruled. Apparently the status quo barely changed for the better. This is classic geopolitical 419 101! Whoever sold the construct that massive crowds without coherent, independent and articulate political roadmap could grab power without force or violence from an entrenched group is the ultimate salesperson. Nice one! The Egyptian reversal waited and reached its natural conclusion. Now my dear North African ‘revolutionaries’, please go home and find something to eat and later seat down to plan for grabbing power by any means.

Snowden and Nigeria

Snowden is resting in Russia but his fart is smelling big time in various capitals. What is it for Nigeria? While spying Nigeria Embassies is a forgone conclusion, what of interference into domestic affairs? Are local telecommunication carriers and internet service providers compromised? Are submarine cables transmitting data to Nigeria compromised? What does the high service-charging MTN, Globacom, Etisalat and the lot incredibly do to their vast customers? At least Wikileaks established the pattern of intrusions and subversion of internal affairs/national interest by state and non-state actors. The establishment of US Drone Base in Niamey, Niger, is nothing reassuring to Abuja rather is a threat to Nigeria’s strategic interest in the West Africa.

Conclusion

In the single race of the single military superpower toward a surveillance state, nation states have become perfect tools for compromise and destruction in the insatiable hunger for information. Nigeria no doubt is too weak an entity and too confused a viable state to raise talk less of highlighting the issues of alleged illegal surveillance. Rather   Nigeria and many other states will be collaterally damaged in the US quest for total domination in military and cyber spheres. There is a consolation anyway, which is the fact that in this race for unchallenged domination lie seeds of self-degradation, overreach and apparent self-diminution which may restrict Washington DC to her front yard in time. In the meantime her erstwhile backyard is gradually reverting to its rightful owners.

One small step for United Kingdom, one giant leap for ….

Recent developments in Syria has gone in overdrive towards accelerating plans and complexity which above all are intended to finally quarantine Arabistan for years to come. While Cairo got a breathing space from intense media coverage of its coup-is-not-a-coup, the use of banned gases in Damascus that resulted in massive dead has among other things exposed many players definition of reason and due-process. From making doubtful conclusions to jumping without looking to making a mess of due-process, finally the usual dogs-of-war, merchants of death and hustlers of innocent blood have repositioned to cash their pay. United Kingdom is one of those playing her allocated part.

Interestingly those calling for punishment of Damascus without diplomacy, due-process and evidence are isolated and should be. The same capitals who flaunt their democratic and rule of raw credentials have once again failed miserably in standing up for their beliefs.  One would have expected London to initially call for full investigation of the alleged gas incident rather Mr David Cameron made a direct detour for immediate military attack. The hubris of Tripoli few years ago remain evergreen. Constrained success begets constrained success! Of course he’s a direct descendant of Blair-lite remora geopolitics. How times have changed!

Since democracy and rule of law have failed London, apparently London did not fail. It is clear that from Mr Cameron’s perspective, United Kingdom lack independence, sovereignty and integrity to stand alone from the shark of White House. By so doing Mr Cameron allowed himself into believing that British people are no more than willing lapdogs who are doomed to jump as high as directed. Misreading an ally’s intention, despising party line and ignoring public opinion are not marks of a politician of worthy stripe, rather are attributes of one lacking legitimacy and sees national pride as anathema. One cannot legitimately accuse Conservative Party of signing up for the questionable decision to attack Damascus for now.

Unfortunately Mr Cameron missed important issues. Times have changed and public opinion‘s memory bank is not depleted. His reading of Washington DC’s imperial power was misleading and inaccurate. The times of London unquestioned nodding to State Department’s instructions may be declining. United State power is diminishing and many indicators are already on display. United Kingdom possesses the chance to commence baby-steps towards post US hegemony. The West or what is left of it is increasingly isolated and blind followership of United States will not help matters. The rest of the world is watching these changes in fortune as a gradual as they evolve with keen interest.

In view of this Labour Party arrived well to the party even though the jury is still out on their brand of foreign policy and ‘special’ relationship with Washington DC. By accurately reading public opinion, weak global appetite for conflict and declining economic fortunes, Mr Ed Miliband defied conventional wisdom by leading his party on the argument of caution, common sense and respect for due-process in international law. In a sense he robustly taught the constitutional law professor holding the fort in Washington DC.  He equally distinguished himself from a previous party leader and former prime minister, marking a sharp contrast that UK politicians have deep appreciation for their country and its national interest rather than blind followership of questionable blood-thirsty military campaigns. He also repositioned his party as the party of reason when it comes to foreign policy, a party ready for post-US hegemony and finally a party for true UK independence and sovereignty. Of course it will take time to unravel if he’ll finally put finishing touches on these first showings. He has not made a strong show of his position on supply and funding sources of the current Syrian civil war. Too early for the end of Remora Geopolitics!

Nevertheless it is abundantly clear that Liberal Democrats have rightly dissolved their credibility as the anti-war party as they are now singing Coalition war hymns. They are the main loser in the current discourse.

It is worth noting that around the world United States and United Kingdom are isolated in their warmongering. Paris is a surprise late entrée. It beggars belief that Charles De Gaulle’s France is now jumping and barking loud for State Department since ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy, hence making London compete strongly to fend her off the special relationship prize. Apparently De Gaulle needs to be given a final burial as his France has ceased to exist. So much for Gallic pride! European Union ranking members seem to be humming along the anticipated script without declared commitment to rhetoric or imminent action.

Events are still unfolding nevertheless this is the first stab on the test of future relevance of UK politicians as the right custodians of UK independence and sovereignty. Labour Party has opened up a new vista towards potential reconfiguration of Remora geopolitics into a foreign policy fit for a future where US power is diminishing or diminished. Then UK will once again take her rightful place in the comity of nations.

Deportation Lagos State Footprint

Introduction

The media is abuzz with the latest display of political incoherence and strategic blunder of Lagos State in the guise of internally deporting Nigerian citizens across state boundary under false premise. For a state that converges as the commercial centre of the country and an international interface such a policy comes in conflict with expectations of social-conscious governance for both the state and its governor.  The article attempts to review the issues at stake including positions taken by select members of a motley crew of state officials and media sympathisers as well as point out rich reserves of historical amnesia on their parts.

Action Governor

This week many newspapers have been running with the story regarding internal deportation of 70 Nigerian citizen-residents of Lagos State to Anambra State on the orders of Governor Babatunde Fashola.  Further investigation confirmed that the policy is standard policy of the state as part of an overarching policy implementation instrument.  This is an interesting development in the life of both state and the republic as it carries a lot of uncertainties. Our position is to review the position taken by the state from a legal point of view.

Legal Hellhole

A number of pundits have resorted to becoming state echo-chamber without credible facts for or against the policy. Nevertheless before tackling the problem one must initially address the issue of citizenship in Nigeria with regard to states and local governments. While the first line of citizenship is without question except when ex-president, Alhaji Shehu Shagari, deported Alhaji Shugaba to the Sahel, internal deportation has always carried the spot-mark of illegality mostly under the threat of death under irrepressible religio-politcally motivated violence.

It my understanding that 2^nd line and 3^rd line citizenship based on domicile is unclear in Nigeria. It is common knowledge that citizens can reside in another part of the country for years and not be legally recognised as citizens of those states/local governments hence contract working arrangements in the public sector for proverbial non-indigenes in many states. Surely internal discrimination! One must conjecture that this fuzzy application of right of domicile as criteria for citizenship is part of the motivation of the legal-governor to strike. It is unfortunate that other variables were not critically considered including her role as primary city/state. If Nigerians have the right to reside in any part of the country therefore they are not supposed to be internally deported to another state unless convicted of a grave crime or in compliance with an extradition request. The absence of coherent legal structures to formalise 2^nd/3^rd level citizenship through right of domicile exposes the flawed concept of Nigeria’s federalism.

Then the 70 (Igbo) men or so women were ‘convicted’ by the governor and summarily dispatched like cattle across the state boundary without recourse to law and potential social opprobrium. Maybe Ikeja conjured that quick and fast internal deportation is cheaper than going the whole legal route. Above all they rested on their historical amnesia laurel as if such action is ethnic-neutral in a country where ethnic sentiment is high for very good reasons. The question will be what happens to a Yoruba/Lagos indigene fitting the criteria adopted for current internal deportation?

The shallowness of the affair has exposed the governor as lacking in clarity in the purported exchange with his counterpart in Awka who rightly raise the issue with Abuja.  Sadly Ikeja failed miserably to provide its legal justification to the media at least to bolster her position which is more in line with uncoordinated understanding of information management. Therefore Ikeja succeeded in scoring an own-goal which in part left her reputation in tatters.  In Fela’s parlance, legal teacher has taught me legal nonsense. It is Law stupid!

Semantics Illusion

Concerned citizens have jumped onto the issue from both sides with their eclectic array of understandings. Some have moved across the aisle to dismiss any suggestion of ethnicity as if ethnicity is a no-go area al a IBB. It is the fundamental question in Nigeria and only when it is tackled with respect, clarity and progressive strategy can the country move forward. Currently Nigeria is an unfortunately leaking umbrella holding over disappointed 250 nationalities/ethnic groups. The speed with which some pundits rushed to dismiss the ethnic footprint of the victim reeks of rootless intellectualism without functional dimension. Which part of the world is ethnicity delimited or discredited with reckless aplomb? Even France failed to construct herself effectively along such lines.  This motley crew of knowledgeable men and women seem to forget that states are social constructions with dynamic changes over time.

It is insensitive of Lagos State and her governor to embark on this wild chase without historical recollection. Maybe they gave it thumps-up as doing politics by other means in parallel to Lenin perception of war as politics by other means.

Another vista of this intellectual hubris is attempted justification of the most inhuman act with pretentious light touch of Marx without details distinguishing from Bolshevik communism. It is impressive that these streams of knowledge deliberately run dry suddenly at the river’s youthful stage. Marx not only deconstructed class conflict but flayed those who assume power in the name of bring good only to betray it. In his 18^th Brumaire of Louis-Napoleon, he incisively remarked on the grave dangers of the French revolution which pretended to sweep clean the political landscape only to evolve into a position no different to the preceding decadent days. He noticed how the upper and middle classes conspired in the Napoleon III coup d’état to betray the commons with the massacre of Paris Commune leaders that represented the lower class. Eventually what the usurpers of powers succeeded in doing was adopting the state toward tight coupling with machines of capital accumulation via the market.

Despite the fact that current governor got into office by elections, some similarity is found in the latest fumble of Lagos State as the targeted deportees are no more than those the state considered wretched of the earth, unfit to share the space and largesse of the state with the powerful, the rich and the elite. Marx was right after all.  Unfortunately these unfortunate individuals are treated in the media as if they lack history and humanity, or have never contributed positively to the state and have no positive and lasting links with the state. Similar action by a foreign state on a Nigerian may potentially carry the mark of institutional racism and discrimination.

Final Legal Recollection

One of Punch Newspaper respondents in favour claiming to be a lawyer gave his widow’s mite by considering the act as legal and labelled it resettlement. In an increasingly interconnected world such justification attempt to lump Lagos State with some of the most despicable episodes of inhumanity.  It is worth reminding readers that as Dr Martin Luther King Jr. said, “Injustice anywhere is a threat to peace everywhere”.

Words similar to resettlement have been used and adopted to justify dispossession, repression and annihilation of peoples in recent memory. Scramble for Africa was implemented with similar illegal and forceful movement/dispossession/genocide of various African peoples by the French (in Congo), Belgium (in DRC Congo), British (in Zambia/Zimbabwe/Kenya), Germans (in Namibia/Cameroun/Togo) and Portuguese (Angola/Mozambique) in the name of law and order. The eminence grise of concentration camping of the innocent!

Peoples of Pre-Columbian America where invested with similar resettlements, dispossession, rape and genocide that reached its zenith in the United States during Andrew Jackson regime that finally consigned indigenous Indians to reservations till the present day. Eminent historian Howard Zinn captured these stark realities in his excellent book, Peoples History of the United States. Similar exploitations of peoples through forced relocation policies in the Americas is reconstructed by Eduardo Gealano in his epic, Open Veins of South America.

In the last century European elites not only decimated their population with industrial killing machines called world wars, but equally condemned the weak and vulnerable in forced relocation policies that annihilated millions like sanctions flowing from Adolph Hitler’s executive legal orders. Consolidation of nascent communist power projected Joseph Stalin to corrupt the first fruit of practical Bolshevik communism with mass murder of millions through forced deportations to gulags across the land. The remnants are today littered across the former Soviet Union with returning Tartars in conflict with later occupiers of their lands in Crimea and the burning Nargano-Karabak conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Lessons

In conclusion it is wise to admit that leadership is complex but short cuts do not provide lasting solutions. Leadership without understanding of history is counter-productive and such expression must be condemned. Lagos State and her leaders must be clear on the implication of their decisions because it has a vibrant brand within and beyond her boundaries that could be tarnish by reckless resort to quixotic pseudo legalism. Such mustn’t be allowed to happen again.

Egypt is still Africa

This glorious country with rich historical pedigree has descended into specialist media machination and mash-up of recent that you wonder if history has actually ended. However what is emerging is a testament to historical amnesia of majority Egyptians who have been sold down the river numerous times that they have lost count. The purpose of this article is to explicit forgotten lines on the conflicting imageries and narratives of what Egypt means and how today’s mess came to the fore. It is important to stress that ordinary majority Egyptians haven’t precipitated this outcome rather the powerful minority (elite) among them have.

Son of Africa

One of the sad elements of current Egyptian crisis is her apparent and deliberate loss of identity. There is no dispute Africa extends from Cape to Cairo, Cape Verde to the Mogadishu (the Horn). Later narratives have gradually with some success deconstructed Egypt’s Africaness and migrated it into the sad conundrum called Middle East. Egypt is one of the giant sons and daughters of Africa. In the early post world war 2 days, Egypt’s place was assured and secure as General Nasser reflected and transformed this historical patrimony.

What is sadder with the extension of this ugly metageography devoid of any continental underpinning is the depiction of the so-called Middle East as ranging from Morocco to the eastern ends of the Arabian Peninsula. It is curious that the metageography of Middle East is coterminous to lands mostly populated by Arabs, which in any case should be referred to as Arabistan.  In the bid to consolidate this front of self-determination coupled with rise of petro-dollar hegemony, Egypt was put on the back foot of both African and Arab leadership from which it is yet to recover. President Morsi’s reaction to the recent Nile Treaty ratified by most countries in the catchment area represents a perfect summary of Egypt’s identity crisis.

Historical Self-Destruction Marker

Post-Nasser period presented binary expectations for continuation of a proud nation with clear focus and unimpeded strategic goal which is not subordinate to foreign interest. Nevertheless the current crisis was signed and seal with Camp David Accord which simply evoked her death warrant. With this treaty Egypt lost every trapping of an independent state and an able player in the global field including immediate loss of leadership in both Arab and Islamic worlds. By willingly playing second fiddle Egypt was consigned to the side-lines of a summit where she is the agenda. President Sadat may have paid with his life but that payment was sustained by General Hosni Mubarak with vivacity.

In another strategic outcome of that treaty Egypt was summarily divided into two opposing forces, the power elite composed of the privileged dominating one party machinery including the military beholding to foreign interest, and the poor ordinary masses who wait endlessly for bread and or sort solace in the arm of puritanical interpretation of religious doctrines. Bamboozled with foreign aid of all manners, the elite slipped into comfortable coma letting down the majority in failing to accept them as the only asset the country have after all. Problems do not only extend, they mutate and bid their pre-explosion time.

Zero-sum geopolitics

Egypt in the persons of Sadat and Mubarak (and elite) permitted playing second fiddle as existential goal during the cold war however miserably failed to project post-cold war geopolitical calculus with any sense of national interest dynamic. In essence they count of being part of the winning team. Sadly there was only one winner! They forgot that it takes many lives to make one general. As the new world order took shape Cairo was immune to the emerging nuances that the sole winner want no challengers even as her relevance was reduced to check-mating the largest open prison in the world.  What commenced as a binary geography of world view that placed Egypt in the ‘axis of not - evil’ unveiled the fact that the only thing that mattered in Egypt is not the people but the army, an army whose doctrine is not national defence.

On the foot of unwinnable war on terror of which Cairo falsely believed it is on the winning team, another packaged upheaval or controlled mayhem mislabelled as a revolution ensued across the African part of Arabistan. Curiously the non-African part of Arabistan held, of course what is left of Iraq is anyone’s guess. A revolution unfolded as a top-down theatre where the majority down and out were mere players devoid of potency, cohesion and plan played along. Only that the elite were doing musical chairs in the interregnum. It is evil and this time one can paraphrase Clausewitz (of course for a member of the ‘axis of not – evil’) evil is extension of politics by other means. Therefore Egypt is a beneficiary of the evil that was intended for members of the proverbial ‘axis of evil’.

Economy Foolish

When a coup against an elected government is now debated on its (de)merits with the untouched army up again in the fore at least those apostles of democracy still relish the right to do a decent job. Egypt is down and out for another generation. Maybe South America may beckon for lessons learnt! The main problem above all is economic hardship and economic sabotage underpinned by neoliberal doctrine which will not go away until wealth distribution is implemented in a true mass reaction lead by the down. Apart from that the power elite will cling to power with divide and rule tactics in the short term while the big one waits on the window of time.

For those who have suffered most have no worries holding out as long as time allows. Muslim Brotherhood will not wait another swath of decades to kiss power again hence the bloody horizon. No easy way out of this one.

Lessons if at all Learnt

The so-called revolution has unravelled and it is time for majority Egyptians to seat down, think and regroup. They have been on the road of euphoria and intoxication hoping to make real change without time or plan.  In addition it is time for the majority to use similar binary cognition to distinguish between friends and foes; within and without.

Sadly and truthfully mayhem will not leave Egypt soon because the problem has morphed into hydra. Nevertheless the biggest lesson is for the Brotherhood to focus on remaining relevant to their base. They need to critically recalculate and reconscientize their raison d’etre, foreign relations, choice of dependable allies and strategic initiatives, revaluation of capitalism. ‘Egypt first’ policy will be welcome. Only then will the first seeds of stability be sown. Stop the isolation in the Arabistan camp as it is empheral and unsustainable. Nevertheless their problem in government is the problem of Egypt; cancerous lack of self-confidence. The future of Egypt among other places is not in the Peninsula or the Gulf (Arabian or Persian).