African Leadership in the Post-United States Era

Introduction

The current story of leadership in Africa leaves a lot to be desired at all levels. Tragic and unpleasant narratives continue to dominate the continent two generations after most of the successors of colonial states gained so-called independence. What is counted as independence of nation-states are limited exclusive operations that transform the majority into victims of state aggression across the board. In this article our limited attention is on the potential opportunities implicit in United States overreach and decline. United States is the last form of western imperial colonial state.

Spectre of Colonial Mentality

Many may wonder why ‘colonial’ is mentioned two generations after the colonial era. A typical critic is fiercely seeking answers to the problem of leadership in Africa over the same period. Opposing arguments insist that the so-called independent states were equipped in statecraft plus accruing human resources over the generations. If so, why have the result been gross underperformance? Part of the problem is historical amnesia that fuel the false narrative that colonial projects were benevolent and beneficial to the people. There is no evidence in this regard.

The idea that colonial projects departed from civilisation mission to genuine investment in people-oriented values is intellectually dishonest. Not a single colonial project respected the indigenous peoples and tolerated genuine democracy, civilisation, progress and human rights. No colonial official was ever elected. Top-down bureaucratic operations, impunity, massacres and genocides were normalised in these profit-making projects. The mission statement of the project were based on false representation and devaluation of Africans. Once a peoples’ identity is questioned, their existence is appropriated.

The British, French, Portuguese, Italians, Germans and Spanish left horror legacies that continue to haunt us. The atrocities of Belgian King Leopold in DR Congo left a trail of intergenerational dehumanisation inherited by Mobutu and his successors. Similar cases dominate most of the continent. Preference of one colonial project over another is a testimony from the lunatic fringe. The so-called independence never brought holistic liberation of the peoples rather a radical regressive alteration of destinies and hybridisation of existence. People cannot give what they lack. Hence today most Africans are victims of repression, alienation, exclusion and marginalisation from leadership at all levels inherited and extended from colonial projects.  The cost is high in blood.

Items of Impossible

The fall of Kabul in 2021 signalled the end of uncontested US imperial prerogative and the decline of North Atlantic hegemony. The current loss-making conflicts in both Ukraine and Palestine simply confirm enduring patterns of irreversible decline of a panic-stricken ex-hegemon. With unsustainable public debt, decline of the US dollar, defeat in Ukraine, establishment of Iranian deterrence in West Asia, Yemeni mastery of the Red Sea and Palestinian endurance; potentials are growing for credible African renewal. 

New Conversation

Time has come for new focus and new collective sharing on the implications of dynamic geopolitical reconfigurations. Young people in West Africa are already chewing over what independence means, discerning enduring patterns for dignified existence and taking steps to advance the sanctity of their lives. For those who are still undecided, deep conversations are needed for sober assessment of the last two generations in an authentic embrace of histories. A people without active historical agency cannot stand.

US decline is significant in clarifying US citizens place in the world as normal people without exceptional qualities or manifest destiny. They built an empire with an expiry date that activated this decade for another empire to take the stage. Hence North Atlantic domination of the world for almost half a millennia is over.

African discussions must be honest, truthful, hopeful and trustworthy. Independence, dignity and sanctity doesn’t come from outside. No amount of intellectual and material investment outlines existential and ontological values of peoples in their community. A critical and deep review of the colonial project deserve penetrating exchanges because it continues to dominate conventional view of correctness and completeness despite the absence of both.

In addition, parallel discussions of indigenous legacies deserve utmost attention as foreign inputs have shown their cost in blood. True, no people have the monopoly of discernment, wisdom and knowledge. However any development not anchored on the unique experience of the people in a territory is futile. Equally when people decide to sleep with blanket of excuses for their miserable state, the status quo remains. Positive reversals don’t take long.

Any African leader at any level who is unable to factor in rapid change is irrelevant. Any leader without clear replicable plan of action, key performance indicators and critical success factors is malfeasant. Most importantly if African peoples at all levels refuse to engage, organise and mobilise for their personal and collective advancement in their unique experiences; current costs will continue to mount.

Conclusion

It is time for Africans to once again read sign of the times, take another look at ourselves in the spirit of unlearning and relearning to exchange on our status quo. Other peoples in other continents are defiantly taking their destinies in their hands. An authentic historical review of our past particularly the colonial project that unleashed our current sufferings through ugly nation-state leadership deserve urgent attention. A new narrative is essential, a narrative of independence, dignity and sanctity. Our existential and ontological constitutions are irreducible, non-negotiable and indispensable.

African Response to Vatican Slip Up

The Christian albeit Catholic world received a deserved New Year present from Africa. It is the present of theological orthodoxy and orthopraxis, with intergenerational implications. The background to this African testimony of maturity is the recent decision by the Vatican directing bishops/priests to bless homosexuals and lesbians in relationships. There's only one valid relationship in the church, marriage between one man and one woman.

If anyone was seeking for a credible sign of theological & spiritual compromise of Catholic leadership, look no further. Instead of seeking the Holy Spirit on biblical authority, trusting the Eucharist aligned with sacred tradition, worship is devolved to mere man to crush his maker in the name of progress. Just peruse the quality of post-announcement damage control by Dicastery for the Doctrine of Faith.  

You wonder what motivated this decision. A single reason, absence of faith in Jesus the Christ. 2000+ years testimony is rejected and despised. Such a radical departure from orthodox teaching should have considered a number of points including (a) reactions from Catholics in the Global majority (b) reaction of other Christians in the Global majority (c) the position of Orthodox Catholics (d) position of Muslims (e) position of global believers in all religions, cultures and creeds. Christian unity and inter-religious dialogue are seriously harmed.

That decision reflects European and North American church leadership intransigence, and their overthrow of faith to elevate pride. This decision aligned with Atlantic geopolitical currents validates the position that religion isn't a variable of importance. A final gesture to secularisation and flourishing ode to enlightenment! These views assert that for them God is indeed dead. Faith in Jesus left Europe long ago.

Then rose African bishops in solidarity and unanimity to reject the decree boldly declaring that they refuse to implement it in their dioceses based on biblical authority, sacred tradition and demand of indigenous religio-spiritual authenticity. Faithful pastors who know their faith, missions and constituencies! This is a brilliant sign with huge potentials for replication in other spheres of African endeavour. A first!

This decision destroys in a single strike the attitude of Africans Catholics to Vatican with proverbial 'yes father'. The pendulum has swung, true faith is outside of Europe and North America. There's little Christianity to learn from these spaces and from such cultures. Interestingly, the Vatican decision confirmed a recurring Marian apparitions warning of division among bishops and cardinals on orthodoxy and orthopraxis. Pope Paul VI warned about Satan in the high places.

I hope and pray for African faithful to keep up the determination and tenacity implicitly demanded by this new defence of the faith on the world stage. In the meantime prayerful celebration is worthwhile in Africa and among Africans.

Revitalised Amauku Ihitte-Okwe for the Future

 

Introduction

As Amauku Ihitte-Okwe restarts an authentic journey towards a future underpinned by credible disposition to a holistic educational outlook, the events of today stand in sharp relief as a watershed of stocktaking on how far we have travelled, how we got into our situation before today and the implication of today’s decisions on our collective future. This honest stocktaking is the objective of this article.

A generation yesterday

It is proper to look at issues with a contextual insight to ensure that comprehensive attention is given to primary explanatory variables among many. The main issue is the inevitable fact that Amauku is situated within the geopolitical umbrella called Nigeria with all its implications. More interestingly, most of the current population cohort arrived the scene after the devastating Nigeria-Biafra war whose ignored regressive effect continue to loom large.

To state that Nigeria is a problematic is an understatement, rather the current generation is a victim of Nigeria bearing the wounds of its poisonous decimation and industrial-scale holistic displacement. However, both its decimation and displacement is neither comprehensive nor total in so far as human agency isn’t totally robbed of dignity and freedom.

While we admit that the above paragraph deserved to be unpacked, a task beyond the scope of this piece, it equally signpost undeniable impacts on the ground with particular regard to low-quality of leadership, inauthentic decisions, unjust implementations and truncation of people’s expectations. Above all, it is the elevation of uncritical approach to existential struggle in general, a degradation of collective insights to problems and growing abscess of poor leadership as normative. In addition, knowledge and wisdom became untouchables effective from 1985.

Highlights of Errors

Four projects symbolise the malaise raised under the previous heading. 1986 Amauku Water Project commissioned by Lt Commander Amadi Ikwechegh fell victim to strategic blindness and post-commission inertia that manifested in the non-reticulation of  water through Umuihim and Umuotukwe. The summary is that at the time of writing there are least 30 private water boreholes in the community. Draw your own conclusion on the costs.

Second, is the electricity project design and implementation. This strategic project approached with the right intentions from inception lacked the input of credible and knowledgeable experts in the field of electric power and electrical engineering professionalism. This was ignored in spite of the abundant and available specialists sons and daughters in the profession. Third, is St Patrick Catholic mission expansion project. It was implemented in rejection of evident needs/cost benefit analysis provided at no cost to the community as a sound solution by one of our distinguished sons. A triple slap on him, on knowledge and on intellectual industry.

Last but not the least is 2020 COVID-19 related support provided by abroad Ihitte-Okwe family meetings. I deliberately avoid identifying the project’s given name because it is insulting to our collective memory, to ndiche and the collective gift of Ala. Apparently, the name is morbidly connected to regression of life towards its ending rather than its refreshment. It was an intellectual error given that its principals with the best intentions ignored basic facts on the ground which a simple needs analysis would have highlighted. A people blessed with fruitful resources don’t just ignore tested solutions to imitate erroneous neighbours.

Lessons

Taken together, the above errors initiated and consummated by our leaderships at local and central levels at various times have transformed into attractive destinations for our pilgrimage. An honest pilgrimage for humble observations and gentle examinations, mistakes identifications, gap analyses, what-if scenario reviews and admission that wrongs were executed. Only a deliberate and decent descent into errors allows one, groups and community to reassemble their equipment for credible investments and truthful implementations in the future. Unless leaderships in Amauku and Ihitte-Okwe in general adopt a comprehensive approach that is truthful, intelligent, reasonable and responsible; our future development will face serious obstacles.

Comprehensive Authentic Education for Amauku

Today December 26^th & Amauku Day at the LA School our community is united in a strategic deliberation to articulate the way forward for our collective future underpinned by a comprehensive approach to conscientization, learning, teaching, production and development. The most beautiful cast of this development is its indigeneity and ground-upness. All solutions must have the footprints of our experts home and abroad. In short every expert son/daughter is by default a consultant to Amauku.

The trigger for this new dawn is Nigeria expressed through state abandonment of schools, teachers and pupils. So the community has assumed responsibility of employing/supporting teachers with relevant resources, investing in the physical infrastructure and providing our pupils with the requirements for conducive learning. Yes, Amauku is res Amauku, a republic. The Latin root means the reality of the people.

Our effort is not ignorant of potential stumbling blocks rather integrate them into agreed initiatives, scalable deliverables and strategic visions upon which the holistic development of Amauku is based. Our children must have a clear identity, clear conscience, learn as a human right and grow into responsible persons looking forwards without loss of everything received from ndiche. Our appreciation is huge on the drivers, stimulators and facilitators of this latest eruption of goodwill.

It is not a coincidence that all these efforts are bearing fruit at Christmas with deep theological implication on virtues manifesting through resourceful communications, respectful coordination, insightful collaborations and wise donations of selves for the greater good. Christian doctrine teaches that God reconciled the world to Godself through Jesus, so authentic knowing of Jesus by the Holy Spirit must follow the models of Mary, the shepherds and the Magi. Rich interiority, self-knowledge and holistic unity of person, of marriages, of families and of community. This time around, the journey from today will not delink from the chain of consistency and continuity. 

Summary

There is an advantage in every disadvantage and error. Only that high cost in patience required to go through each case prevent most investors from appreciating  forensic reviews. Amauku is turning the curve of self-knowledge and collective unity with tentative steps in full awareness that without this bitter pill, there is no collective future for us. Let it be clear that the Nigeria that we groan about and expect to transform is best perceived through the lens of Amauku. For our children and generations yet unborn, this is our handover file. Only an authentic and holistic restoration of our collective development can reassert our honour, dignity, integrity and excellence.

Which Direction is Ihitte-Okwe Heading?

 Introduction

The title question is timely given the currency of the on-going dynamic reconfiguration of the global geopolitical plates. The recent peace agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran reached in China is monumental for its regional implications particularly its dissolution of US full-spectrum dominance designs. Riyadh was least expected to choose a different path but facts on the ground suggest otherwise. In addition, the Russo-NATO conflict have ruptured assumptions on both the strategy and durability of United States power projection. It is within these developments that the above question is asked in order to shed light on Ihitte-Okwe and attempt a construct of future requirements for its direction identification.

Which Ihitte-Okwe?

There is a context to every situation and the reality of Ihitte-Okwe is not excluded. Ihitte is the first son of Okwe hence Ihitte-Okwe. This is the geographical area and autonomous community space of around 30km square that shares boundaries with Umuohiagu, Umuowa, Umukabia, Ngor, Nnorie and Umuhu. Majority of its population i.e. the 180+1 day per year citizens/residents, include those who descend from the age cohorts of the generation born both between 1901 and 1935. Simply put, those born within the period are few at the time of writing.

The implication of the above is clear in the following ways. First, most of the citizens/ residents are inheritors of all that is found in the territory, beneath the surface and in its airspace. Second, there are no new lands to be discovered, no new boundaries to be demarcated, no new strategic paths/road/intersections to be designed, no new markets to add to the calendar and no new settlements for migration. Third, there is no new language to be invented for communication in the community. Fourth, some graves of ancestors of that age cohort and most of those preceding them remain unidentified.

Despite numerous variables, the above named offer tasters of some of the core elements and inherent attributes of Ihitte-Okwe. Nevertheless, more insight is required towards an understanding of the geostrategic wisdom of these ancestors on boundaries and settlement locations. Prior to that an overview of the current learning foundation is presented.

Anti-Indigenous Design

One can easily accept everything observed in Ihitte-Okwe without question. Given the predatory civilisational stripping nature of British colonial education which continues to this day, such pattern of learning is a natural result. This is the case where formal learning in the community is not done in Igbo, curricula exclude local history, indigenous religion/spirituality, indigenous philosophy/theology, indigenous knowledge systems, indigenous science/technology etc. 

In addition is the aggressive exclusive policy of hegemonic authoritarian view of Christianity which label most things indigenous as suspect and devilish to this day. A systemic intergenerational transfer of such poison in the name of education render most citizens/residents foreigners in their bodies/homeland. A misunderstood geostrategic wisdom of our ancestors that shaped Ihitte-Okwe to this day deserves a highlight.

Geostrategic Wisdom

When observing our current town and village plans, one should be cautious in reaching conclusions of their locations/designs. In the absence of continuous historical and archaeological records, one could mistakenly assume that the observed are the default since time immemorial. There have been many internal migrations within the area and within villages hence the existence of okpulo. Umuekwum was once a thriving village.

Settlements were placed proximate to external boundaries. In all the decisions the external boundaries have remained unchanged and unchallenged in the last 200 years at least. The current population though reduced compared to that of the previous generation is significantly higher than those 1901 – 1931. The lands were huge per capita. Imagine how tiny Amauku/Arum would have been in comparison to its overall land space 100 years ago.

It fosters wonder in view of how these lands where acquired, allocated and secured by our ancestors; the spiritual and technological initiatives they invested towards their acquisition and the security offensive/defensive capabilities deployed for their protection against potential usurpers/invaders from neighbouring communities. It doesn’t require a genius to conclude that our ancestors possessed high level of internal cohesion, sharp spiritual awareness/consciousness, great intellectual power and huge charity towards unborn generations including the present (us). An enduring example is the indigenous priest, Nna Ekeanya’s securing the nascent Amauku Catholic Church funds.   

Post-War Struggles

Given limited documented records and scattered historical accounts, one enduring post-war feature of the community is the absence of cohesion or centrality. Cheap references blame it on geography contrary to facts on the ground. Most citizens born before 1966 attended primary schools in Umuagbom. Orie Ihitta and Eketa were the main points of internal trade & resource exchange in an agricultural economy till the late 1990s. There was an historical agreement in the community that backed the candidacy of High Chief B I Obirieze in the 1970s for autonomous community lead. Umuagbom served and continue to serve as a ‘centre’ though its potency has reduced over time. So, the question of weak internal relationship is a serious question in need of an unambiguous answer. This weakness has manifested into villages, kindreds and families with deadly consequences in the last four decades. Let us first address the bright spots.

Achievements

The biggest resource any community has is its population, its people. What is above or beneath its grounds are secondary expressions of their dynamic initiatives. This is the case of Ihitte-Okwe with examples. The search for sustainable sources of water challenged the community for decades. This was addressed with various solutions including digging of deep wells in the 1970s. Fluctuating water tables and increased risk/costs compelled the people to address the situation and the best outcome was expressed in the commissioning of Amauku Ihitte Water Project by the then Lt Commander Amadi Ikwechegh in 1986. Nze Eleoha of Umuhim and the project initiation team remain evergreen examples.

Since then the Catholic community have been granted parish status matching our territory. The highest honour to date is the approval and gazetting of autonomous community status in the 2000s by Imo State government. This privilege affords the community the status of recognised state with a defined territory, of a population with a centre (Eze’s palace). Ihitte-Okwe is no different from DR Congo, Brazil, Russia, China and Liechtenstein. Our ancestors sang and danced in their graves for this honour in anticipation of greater things that this privilege affords. What have we done since?

Autonomous Community Reality 

Every new state formed by administrative procedure or battle-won independence arrive with great anticipation and Ihitte-Okwe is no different. Now this is the problem in this case. Facts on the ground testify to a regression on many indicators. To address this point, it is important to revert back to the initial application for autonomy because this should unveil any evidence or lack of behind alleged poor leadership and poor followership.

Did Ihitte-Okwe population/leaders of the time ever deliberate and write down expectations of  new enhanced autonomy in view of its potentials, opportunities, strengths and capabilities? Does a document exist on any agreement or promise of action by Eze candidates? If, ‘no’, is the answer to both questions, as the situation went downhill, did the population particularly family meetings and development meetings address the issue with consultations, published documents/communiques? If the answer is no, then, the stink is thicker than imagined. Truth be told, the implications and full potential of autonomy is not realised by most of the people.

The current generation need to urgently and collectively look at ourselves and ask the following questions: What form of Ihitte-Okwe do I want to hand over to my children? Does the current Ihitte-Okwe make a deserving gift to my children? Will I recommend Ihitte-Okwe as a holiday destination or an event (wedding-birthday-research-retreat-conference) spot to colleagues/friends?

The currency of skeletal organisation of the Eze’s office including an almost ceremonial cabinet is unfit for comprehensive development in the 21^st century. Ihitte-Okwe as a space of consistent capital flight to other communities is unacceptable. It is despicable that Ihitte-Okwe tolerates unfit-for-purpose schools for their children. It is not a space for waste of scarce resources, abuse of process and celebration of ignorance. The case of parallel and competing initiatives by different well-intentioned stakeholders without consistent data-centred strategy flowing from Eze’s office is unhelpful. All policies/initiatives most be signed-off at the centre. Eze’s office is not a museum rather is similar to the Kremlin, White House & the Forbidden City. It is a power centre, the glue of bureaucracy and crucible of strategic initiatives. Ihitte-Okwe is neither little nor insignificant.

A radical change of both thinking and worldviews of citizens/residents/leaders is critical going forward. Data-centric questions, credible investigations and robust analyses of processes, solutions, targets, dependences and decisions can no longer be dismissed. Complexity must be accepted, centralisation received and modest institutionalisation inevitable. These aren’t concepts experienced only abroad and in textbooks. It is odious to transfer Owerri/Abuja’s weakness into our community. 

A new way of systematically and competently running our community is urgently needed. Many will not appreciate such change but there is no room for business-as-usual if Ihitte-Okwe burns in your heart. Simply put, Ihitte-Okwe is stagnant and its collective leadership across the board is unfit-for-purpose. Therefore, how should these insights be implemented?

Structuration Summit

There is nothing original in the suggestions or accounts presented above. The suggestion are items for deliberation as they are unready for implementation in their current state. For Ihitte-Okwe to realign its identity according to our ancestral foundations, discover its direction in line with indigenous strategic values and endeavour to reposition its capabilities/potentials in interactions with other communities/states/empires; an ambitious summit or grand assembly of the people is needed before the end of 2024. Ihitte-Okwe deserves a robust integrated and comprehensive governance infrastructure. Summitry are normal events for collective interactions, consultations and discussion towards strategic goals. Annual August meetings of our mothers is an example.

The summit must be organised to address issues, challenges and opportunities of the community towards signing-off visionary strategies, finding processes, approve solutions, creating structures and setting up a dynamic infrastructure for taking Ihitte-Okwe forward. Every citizen/(resident) from every part of the world should be invited to participate in this summit. Issues for discussion include but unlimited to conflict-resolution, culture/heritage, Eze's office, food production, health care, micro-finance, economy, rule of law, leadership training, skill development, accessing Umuneke/Owerri/Abuja resources, governance etc. 

Agreements, decisions and strategies must be collated in a (grand strategy) document which guides administration and implementation on agreed schedules. It is important to stress that the responsibility for planning and hosting this summit should be discussed by the Eze’s office, homebased retired seniors and family meetings in Rivers State, Lagos State and Owerri. We have experienced brothers and sisters in this areas.

The summit should be a testament that the community has come to a crossroad of maturity. It should be focus on upgrading the existing order and a testament of Ihitte-Okwe as a defined stature, with rich potentials and also a productive population consisting of with diverse & capable citizens  in different parts of the world. Time has come to contend with emerging reality in a rapidly reconfiguring global geopolitical dynamics. Ihitte-Okwe deserves a seat on the big table, and it is time for its citizens/residents to confront the fact and act urgently.

Taliban Triggers the Onset of US Decline

 Introduction

Sunday 15^th August 2021 was the culmination of a long multi-generational process. Finally Taliban took Kabul without firing a shot and became the master of Afghanistan in a bloodless masterstroke that defied logic and deeply-held western worldview. The closest comparison military annals is 1940’s fall of Paris to the German army, an operation with the imprimatur of Field-Marshall Eric von Manstein. The boldest print of this outcome is the comprehensive defeat of United States, and everything it stood for. This is one of those rare geopolitical events that closes an era while signalling a paradigm shift that opens a new chapter. Where did this outcome come from? How did it emerge when it did? Some of the answers form the basis of light touches of dynamic processes steeped in history, unique indigeneity of justice and collective memories.  

The Spark of Long Durée

Two formidable intellectuals and religio-spiritual revolutionaries widely acknowledged in their homelands but unknown abroad opened the gates that later unleashed pregnant forces against accepted realities in 1979. The Roman Catholic Church was forced to elect a second pope in less than 60 days in the person of Pope John Paul II from Poland. At the time Warsaw was under communist rule as a satellite of USSR. Exiled Ayatollah Khomeini landed in Tehran and became the master of Iran. Opinion in Washington DC and other western capitals paid more attention to his long beards, inability to speak English and unconventional attire. By the way USSR invaded Afghanistan against the advice of its premier Kosygin.

The appearance of these two men at the same period confirmed two ignored facts; that the nation-state failed the goal it set for itself as the god who can solve all citizens problems and that religion has a place and role to play. Simply put, secularisation is limited. The forces unleashed in Tehran were felt first in direct challenge to the US in the taking her citizens hostage and in 1982 when US footprint was eliminated in Lebanon with the suicide bombing of its military barrack in Beirut. Later inducement of Saddam Hussein into an 8-year war with Iran did nothing to blunt Tehran’s ambition rather was rewarded by 2003 US invasion of Iraq which extended her sphere of influence and confirmed her position as the master of the Persian Gulf. Sanctions never deterred Tehran mobilisation and ascendance in the Middle East.

Pope John Paul II understood the injustice of communism first-hand in Poland and became a lighting rod of a constellation of forces that challenged Warsaw and Moscow in an existential struggle with his first papal visit to his homeland. Moscow took notice but drew the wrong conclusions. By the time Secretary Gorbachev started Glasnost and Perestroika, the disease has irreversibly metastasized. When he approved unilateral withdrawal from Afghanistan which Washington DC saw as defeat, Commandante Fidel Castro reminded Moscow to keep faith in the liberation of Southern African liberation among his prescient concerns. Moscow obliged until US backed rebels and their master receded from the scene for Luanda, Pretoria and Windhoek to breath a sigh of relief from 1991.

US pressed her cold war victory in Afghanistan following the collapse of USSR in 1991 in a geostrategic confusion that closed all moderation and opened the door for Taliban 1.0 to make its first foray on Kabul in the 1990s. Middle East petroleum commanded higher premium so Taliban 1.0 had an unopposed run. Besides the Russian Caucasus was burning. Moscow was in decline and hurting. Time waited for the launching of global full-spectrum dominance in the new American century. Twin bombings in Kenya and Tanzania edged in with the usually dismissed collateral damage.

War on Terror Phase

Once the buildings of New York were pulverised into dust, a motive and an offender were identified for hellfire treatment in 2001. Taliban 1.0 was carpet-bombed from power and a two decade-onslaught against innocent Afghanis were unleashed with all the sophisticated weapons, guns, missiles and boots on the ground. Unlimited fund were flowing to military contractors, arms dealers and the US military industrial complex. Afghani casualties where even deemed undignified enough to be counted. They should have asked indigenous peoples of North America and transported African slaves about humanity under an empire.  Afghanistan became a geopolitical bazaar for sharing trillions dollar cake.

Disregarding uniqueness of a people and their hurting collective memory of inter-generational conflicts imposed by foreign powers, US decreed ‘democracy’ of warlords whose government legitimacy were limited to Kabul and extended further only by force of arms. The neighbouring states watched the grand design unfold. Russia initially offered to help only to later realise that the subtext was different. Beijing stood aside and looked on as ferocious offensives were annihilating in two fronts, Iraq and Afghanistan. China accepted the easier option of turning itself into the global factory since US formally de-industrialised offering firms tax cuts to relocate to China for the highest profit from cheapest labour.

After newly 20 years, all Afghanis agreed on a single point. They are tired of conflicts, local and foreign. Even the puppet governments in Kabul knew so much but had no influence on serious change. Tokyo and Berlin are pass masters in those areas. European capitals obliged the only global hegemon after all since 1945, Europeans ceased to be global powers except for periodic reminders and ruffles on the African continent especially in their former colonial stomping grounds.

Death of Civilisation Mission

The arrival of Taliban 2.0 started when they signed a peace programme with US in Doha obviously from a position of strength. It was a clash of worldviews, civilisations and paradigms. It had little to do with religion. Religion in politics is only a vehicle for conveying collective interest and constituencies of unique experience. However in this clash like other clashes, secularised technology-oriented US greatly disdains religious Taliban without asking what and why that makes group resilient, formidable and irrepressible. With so much faith in their sophisticated weapon, precision systems and radar evading fighter jets; bearded non-English irregulars are deemed easy targets for pulverisation from a distance.

United States lost Afghanistan on a number of fronts which will baffle most analysts. The first point is failure to accept history fully in its complexity and non-linearity. Lack of respect of peoples, unique cultures and different collective memory only manifest deeper costly ignorance. The price of dismissing peoples as the Other. Dehumanisation precedes destruction. The lack of inter-communal clashes and inter-ethnic national conflicts is confounding the western mind who betted on post-US conflagration. Taliban 2.0 is non-violent on display while the violent ran by helicopters.

Afghanis trusted Taliban in the conclusion that they possess a common enemy who doesn’t deserve extra blood of their innocent. Suffering builds resilience, patience and hope in a positive setting. Man is more than flesh. Man is equally spirit. Ascetic disposition and discipline in the face of hardship raises the spirit. All the blabbing on democracy, women rights and human rights failed to admit that all casualties from imposed conflict have ignored rights without statute of limitation.

The second point of difference is knowledge. Most parts of the Global South reflect a collective dehumanisation where nothing of their origin, history and indigeneity is deemed worthy. Learning, ideas, theories and even attitudes are fit only when they come from the north. Western universities and English language are the correct symbols of progress. Taliban and Afghanis have added a notch in the restoration and glorification of Global South identities as viable life-giving niches. Indigenous knowledge system drawing from old sources continues to refine and adapt to new realities display the context for successfully engaging and blunting foreign impositions. There is no need for Harvard/MIT MBA for excellent organisation. Indigenous systems are open and do welcome adaptation to emerging realities at lower cost. Collaboration without dismissal of indigenous values is encouraged. How much did US loss and Taliban victory respectively cost?

One would be delusional to think that Taliban are unaware of Clausewitz theories in On War, ignorant of the fine points of Rommel’s North African desert maneuverers or remote from the brilliance of von Manstein exploits on the eastern front prior to the tank battle of Kursk. They settled for asymmetrical engagement and won.

Thirdly, there is a sad and harmful reality. This is the emerging or rather a confirming trend of the successful role of Islamic sensitivities in the confrontation of suffocating imperial impositions and geopolitical hegemonies in the last generation. The sad aspect is the erroneous conclusion that US and her European remora are Christian when they are anything but. One can simply conclude that both United States and Europe are vehemently opposed to Christianity as much as they are opposed to Islam or any religion.

Fourthly, this Taliban defeat of US has finally signalled the limitation of the latter in her global pretensions. While US will continue to be a formidable power, in geopolitical terms, it occupies just a seat at the table like any other state. In a sense US Empire has not only reached its zenith, it has abandoned that zenith in obedience to gravity never to return to it anytime soon probably until military loss on home soil triggers a deeper thinking. In summary US knowledge, technology, systems, capability, worldview and thinking failed woefully.  A lot of conclusion will be drawn in many capitals. Inspirations will not be in short supply either. As for US invincibility or exceptionalism, its place in the archive is secure.

United States has become the third superpower after Britain and USSR to be buried in the graveyard of empires, Afghanistan.

Nnamdi Kanu: Kenya and International Covert Operations

Introduction
Nnamdi Kanu, the leader of Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) was abducted in Kenya between the last week of June 2021 and the first week of July 2021. Abuja confirmed that the abduction took place under her directives citing Interpol as a collaborator. A careful review of Interpol website Red Notices of wanted persons and News of recent arrests fails to mention the abductee. In the meantime Nairobi through its High Commissioner in Abuja has denied any involvement in the case that occurred in its territory. It is not the first time Kenya denies knowledge of international covert operation in her territory.

The article attempts to sketch out Kenya’s role as a state and location of high-profile international covert operation. In addition a review of emerging options in Nigeria is presented.

Outlier Diplomacy
Knowledge in geography and history is essential towards understanding diplomatic, intelligence and geopolitical developments. While states are the smallest units of geopolitical engagements, all the actions occur in fixed locations called cities. Cities have many qualities, values and functions which ebb and flow over time. Some of these functions include favourability to covert intelligence and espionage operations. Examples include Cairo, Florida, London, Athens, Geneva, Brussels, Berlin, Beirut, Dubai, Bangkok, Kabul, Mexico City and Nairobi. All these cities are important intersection of international flow of persons/services regardless of size.

Intelligence and espionage are the stock-in-trade of every state which are conducted overtly and covertly in locations. Extra-territorial footprints define the big and medium powers. The big states play high-stake operations while the small players do what they must. Some of the big players including London may have supplied information/intelligence from sources including infiltrating assets in IPOB to facilitate the operation in Nairobi.

Intelligence and espionage are statecraft tools for enhancing strategic advantage of a state including higher profits, material improvement and resource access. These are not mindless policies implemented by irrational personnel. Kenya has evolved in this role in the last 4 decades with variable levels of successes and losses. Our attention will be concentrated on just two which consolidated her pedigree as a favourable operator in the dark arts of international covert operations.  

Entebbe via Nairobi
In 1976 an Air France passenger aircraft was hijacked by pro-Palestinian groups fighting for the liberation of Palestine. Most of the passengers on board were Israelis. The aircraft finally landed in Entebbe, Uganda during the administration of Field Marshall Idi Amin. Naturally the hijackers got media attention and pressed their demands. Israel reviewed her options and favoured attack-and-rescue operations. There were major problems. 

One was diplomatic and the other geography. After 1973 Arab-Israeli war, Israel became a pariah state in Africa in solidarity with Egypt whose Sinai peninsular was occupied by Tel Aviv. No African states will open her airspace to Israeli planes. Secondly the distance between Israel and Uganda is over 4000km. Probably these discounted the use of tankers for mid-air refuelling to avoid nuisance of being discovered.

While negotiations with the hijackers via Ugandan government was ongoing, Tel Aviv approached Nairobi for assistance. President Daniel Arap Moi who was in charge agreed. Israeli forces took off south-bound navigating from the Gulf of Aqaba into the middle course of the Red Sea, then due south east until Bab el Mandeb before rounding the Horn of Africa. From that point they flew due south parallel to the eastern African seaboard until they entered Kenya airspace. 

The entire inbound and outbound flight height was low to avoid radar detection. Soviet listening post in Ethiopia was aware, so were US warships in proximity. Inside Kenya the planes descended into the rift valley until they emerged onto Nairobi International Airport to refuel.  After refuelling, they made for Entebbe via the rift valley in a surprise attack, rescued the hostages and flew home in triumph with minimum casualties.  Nairobi denied involvement at the time.

PKK-Ankara Dance via Nairobi
Abdalla Ocalan is the founder-leader of Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), fighting for the liberation of Kurds in Turkey. The Kurds are one of the minority nations discriminated in Turkey among other countries in the region including Iraq, Syria and Iran. They are referred to as the biggest nation without a state. He studied political science at Ankara University. To increase pressure on Turkey, he led his group in armed struggle while based in Syria. However as facts of the ground changed, Damascus reminded him of his new status of an unwelcome guest.

From then he travelled to many countries in Europe including Russia but none granted him asylum. When his plane approached Amsterdam to enable him stand trial, it was refused entry. Greece allowed him entry for a brief period because the diplomatic heat was fierce that no capital wants to have anything associated with him or PKK. Turkish intelligence and her allies deployed across the world monitoring this global movement with the single purpose to capture him.

Ocalan left Greece on a private jet for Nairobi where he was under Greek protection. No one till today can accurately explain the chain of events that followed. Nevertheless Athens came under heavy pressure, Nairobi played her usual part. On February 1999, Ocalan left the Greek embassy in Nairobi for the airport and was stopped and arrested by armed masked men later identified as Turkish intelligence operatives. He was transferred to a waiting aircraft and flown out immediately to Turkey. Naturally Nairobi denied involvement in the operation.

Post-Abduction Fall-Out in Nigeria
Any credible geopolitical watcher will be at a loss on the strategic reason for this costly operation. Given the uncertainty, instability and unreliability of security and public administration which is increasingly spatially limited, Abuja’s triumphalist dispatches are unclear. A number of points need to be recognised for clarity.

The situation on the ground in Nigeria which is accelerating centrifugal forces is unmitigated by the abduction. The spatial spread of instability, non-government armed interventions and kidnappings is wider. This is stronger in the northern part of the country. On this singular point it is evident that the state have lost its monopoly of violence in its territory. Not only that, there is no effective response to lawlessness including absence of arrest of suspects and successful prosecutions.

By the abduction, Nnamdi Kanu has been elevated in stature beyond Abuja’s calculation. Various players on the ground within and outside the government have drawn different conclusions. Rather than destroying morale, it may well transform the fortunes of his supporters and his organisation in the long-term. Nearly 2 decades since Abdallah Ocalan’s arrest, the Kurdish Question remains unresolved by Turkey. Apparently cosmetic accommodations has been by Ankara since then despite the clear fact of the impossibility of its suppression. However the collapse of Iraq following US invasion has effectively granted self-governing Iraqi Kurdistan a lifeline.

Nigeria has not made any tangible gain from this event. One watt of electricity is not added and one litres of clean water is not accessed in the country. Rather instability continues to dodge the country in a situation created and sustained by incompetence of the ruling elite. Apparently, the rank and file of the state are clinging on due to unfettered access to liquid resources, material incentives and privileges.

Conclusion
Therefore in the absence of a credible resolution of generations-long Nigeria problem, the abduction of a person with a foreign passport in a 3^rd country will only exacerbate the situation by highlighting ineffectiveness of the government. Over time the state will be seen to have grappled more than it can chew as its inability to stem the ever growing centrifugal forces as they continue to gain ground towards wider legitimacy.  

Storm of Change - Lessons for Africa

 All are presently given to concentrate on COVID-19 infection. This global blanket is serving various roles and is understood in various ways while a variety of conclusions are drawn by different peoples. The implications are huge at a critical juncture of the world mostly in the Global South.

Old epistemologies have become irrelevant, new approaches are constructed while indigenous solutions are gradually standing up against the barrage of pressures.

The world geopolitical fault lines have sharpened for the next generation. Washington consensus have shrunk to the North American shark and European supplicants. The continued weakening of Europe is reassuring. The rest of its global footprint is imposed with direct and proxy violent offensive. In a sense, a renewed scramble for precious resources beneath their populations.

Russia in the last 2 decades have consolidated her interest in very innovative ways that irreversibly locked Europe and her near-abroad in a strategic stronghold. Her weapons programme is growing by leaps and bounds. To the uninitiated Moscow is not wealthy, while she’s the only country that is building and deploying the most advanced nuclear-powered stealth submarines. Instead of wasting resources on aircraft carriers, strategic weapon-carrying corvettes are deployed with target ranges of 3000km. S-400 air-defence system is already causing mayhem in NATO since Turkey purchased them.

Asia is long gone beyond the total dominance of western powers. Beijing is spearheading a consolidating reality at a speed that her opponents can only be grateful to reflect on.

In West Asia even Gaza Strip is showing active deterrence to an overwhelming force. Tel Aviv seem to be uncertain about her adherence to strategic ambiguity. Her military superiority is chipped away by new technologies held by her adversaries. Washington is rapidly drawing down in the Arabian peninsula and Afghanistan. She left Lebanon in a hurry 1982.

Africa is in a stalemate. This is aptly captured by the recent passing of a hero, President Kenneth Kaunda of Zambia. He was one of the few who understood like President Kwame Nkrumah, that the independence of one country is useless unless the rest of Africa is unchained. He coordinated with brother African heads of government, USSR, Cuba and China. He invested resources for the liberation of Mozambique via Samora Machel (Frelimo), Angola (MPLA), Namibia (SWAPO), Zimbabwe (ZANU/ZAPU) and South Africa (ANC/PAC/etc). He also presciently foresaw the devastation of HIV on the continent.

The main liberation of the mind continues to elude Africa. West African shatterbelt is reeling from a programmed conflict triggered by Ghaddafi’s removal. A proxy conflict for the appropriation of scarce natural resources is ongoing. You can draw your own conclusions on the so-called anti-terror, anti-bandit and anti-militant strategies by western powers. Paris is not leaving Africa and is committed to giving all to keep her stake. President Jacques Chirac said that France doesn’t exist without a supplicant Africa.

Now, South America is regaining her dignity in the last few decades. Her conquest of her mind with appropriate epistemologies imbued with indigenous knowledge systems is redefining her image. Cuba is the first non-power to develop COVID-19 vaccine, followed by Iran. The arrival of South America on modern stage is summarised by events in Venezuela. In Hugo Chavez, the marginalised finally took power. The plebes, hewers of wood, drawers of water and wretched of the earth embraced power through the ballot box and held it. Regardless of pressure, sanctions, afflictions, deprivation and suffering; the collective dignity of people’s across the continent have secured a solid reference.

Outsiders will never understand, the Western-oriented cannot appreciate the groundswell of intergenerational convergence of struggle with opportunity. In this documentary, important conclusions can be drawn especially by the African.