Africa Renaissance 2.0

Introduction

A refreshed intergenerational global wind is picking up strength which is impacting every corner of the planet with various degrees of outcomes. African nations and states are not only aware of this round but are active participants in its making and benefits. Suffice to say that the global geopolitical framework that took effect after world war 2 is bursting at the seams. Growing evidence consolidates its unfitness for purpose. Now we are concerned with surveying the so-called African regional powers and their status in the short term.

A Hegemon in Self-Demotion

In the grand strategic scheme of things United States of America has run its course, given that she can no longer satisfactorily undertake without challenge self-assigned tasks of full-spectrum policing of the world. NATO-Russia and West Asian conflicts testify this fact unequivocally. Like the USSR earlier through internal disequilibrium and misuse of resources, after nearly 2 generations US has finally set her course irreversibly south. 

Africa is an unmitigated victim of this holistic imperial domination, a holdover of a continuum from the violent and brutal colonialism of rapacious Europe. Under Washington DC’s watch, virulent neocolonialism unfurled its flag as the European colonial powers played second base to her while continuing the indirect neoliberal process of mass subjugation, oppression and murder. In any case till date, few African states are excluded from the civilisation-stripping machine front-desked by indigenous elite and political assets. Only Tanzania, Botswana and Namibia remain unmolested by indigenous-led post-independence dark tunnel digging.

Big is not always Beautiful

As the Russo-Ukrainian conflict winds down inevitably, the first peer-to-peer conflict for the US with her loss acknowledged by her own leaders, its effects are already manifesting across the world including Africa. Giants don’t fall alone, they take many far and near down with them. The ripple effects of a hegemon collapse endure over time and space. Nevertheless, US will remain a top player with massive influence and colonial impunity on militarily weak satrapies in Europe, South America and Africa. However an implication suggests that such effects unfolding slowly but surely in Africa will be influenced by numerous factors and variables. In this phase, the so-regional powers are not only excluded from its fuller advantage rather display reactionary moves to consolidate their regressive patterns of state impunity.

After US destruction of Libya in 2011, Egypt’s place was reconsolidated in her orbit in north Africa. Cairo is not and will not be a space of progressive change in the short-term so far as Washington DC sustains Egyptian elite with huge military aid and other largesse. Sadat syndrome that took root from Camp David Accord eliminated Cairo as an effective force in internal and foreign affair respectively for at least 2 generations. Realistic Egyptian regional leadership died with Gamal Nasser while Anwar Sadat’s imprimatur will loom for some time. Simply put, post-Nasser Egypt has no leadership responsibilities in Africa. The year-long catastrophe in West Asia particularly the situation of Palestinians draws currency from (Sadat) Egyptian relegation of responsibility and downgrading of Palestine to a mere refugee problem. So the renewed wind of African rebirth 2.0 will pick strength with Cairo on the sidelines.

In the West African shatterbelt, the main regional power until recently was France. De Gaulle’s neocolonial architecture was refreshed by successive occupants of Elysee Palace until her strategic regression forced resources away from President Macron. In the background is the fact that Nigeria was not, is not and will be a credible power in the short-term regardless of her associated potentials. Abuja denotes a perfect role of a colonial state transformed seamlessly into an indigenous neocolonial state committed to internal destruction underpinned by reprehensive institutional violence and clinical corruption. With an elite and political carpetbaggers nourished by thoughtlessness, historical amnesia and civilisation stripping; one doesn’t need a crystal ball or be an anthropologist in October 1960 to see that the future direction pointed south. As a house with faulty foundation, only a sword of Damocles overhangs a decision to either undertake uncertain costly refoundation or continue habitation until inevitable collapse. Nigeria will watch African renaissance 2.0 with a powerful telescope.

The long eastern coastline is dripping in uncertainty to narrow down serious contenders for serious change. Ethiopia’s has cut a path out of the western swamp to the comity of nations in the nascent BRICS. Addis Ababa has certainly made an irreversible geostrategic move towards the new uncharted water of multi-nodal global geopolitical realignment. She is actually engineering and fast-forwarding a difficult structural change and framework reordering in a very hazardous neighbourhood. It is rather noteworthy that Emperor Haile Selassie clung tightly to the imposed colonial order as the enduring template for Africa’s stabilisation. His grave is undergoing tremors since his country lost its coastline and continental shelves to Eritrea. Addis Ababa is displaying boldness and assertiveness towards Africa 2.0 that deserves a careful observation.

On the southern front a sublime stability reigns with punctations of uncertainty visible across the region. Conflicts and post-conflict realities continue to dodge effective government penetrations, policy implementation and internal security. Nevertheless South Africa seem to steal thunder from its post-apartheid embedding with strategic compromise. To accuse Nelson Mandela of betrayal is an understatement. He was just a neoliberal asset, a neocolonial handbag with intergenerational blood on his hands. It is not farfetched that powerful influences in ANC suddenly decided that the latest peak moment in Palestinian-Israeli conflict offered a rare opportunity to start righting historical injustice. There is no reason to deny Pretoria’s indefatigability and defiance in withstanding full-spectrum pressure against her stand with the Palestinian file at the International Court of Justice.

Conclusion

The jury is still out on the true nature and scope of Pretoria’s strategic commitment to Africa 2.0 given that many of its current elite and political class draw inspiration and sustenance from Nelson Mandela playbook on strategic betrayal of intergenerationally oppressed peoples. In summary, our hypothesis on the resistance of regional powers to new wind of global change is still a strong invitation.