Introduction
President Buhari kicked off his
diplomatic shuttles with an immediate foray among the comity of nations. His
first official trip to Nigeria’s neighbours speaks volumes in the short and
medium terms as it harks back into a defined precedence. This piece will review
the import and potentials. The other following trip took him beyond African
shores to G7 Summit in Germany. This trip is pregnant with meaning while it
triggers a lot of concerns for Nigeria in the medium and long terms. On this
point hangs an uncertainty of Nigeria’s diplomacy in a rapidly geopolitically
reconfiguring world where erstwhile centre no longer holds.
Neighbour-Africa-Centre-Diplomacy
President Buhari’s first foreign
trip to Niger and Chad should be a no-brainer but within the context of
‘decolonised’ Africa it is heavyweight with meaning. It is also important to
appreciate credible diplomatic gestures displayed by neighbouring leaders on
his election by paying him pre-inuagural courtesy calls which is unprecedented.
Some of them also attended his inauguration despite their tight schedules,
poignantly all these countries were colonised by France.
With demise of USSR and slight
dent on naked colonisation, Africa-centred foreign policy continues to defy
expectation at it gradually responds positively to new geopolitical realities.
These realities include the rise of China which is felt in Africa by her increasing
investment footprint, the regression of France who has forced her against
teleological design into Washington DC arms. The implication is observed in
Paris re-parcelisation of France-Afrique policy to facilitate USAFRICOM
objectives. The result has led to re-encirclement of Nigeria by United States
via establishment of military bases in West Africa including but not limited to
airbase in Niamey (less than 500 miles North of Abuja) and in Ouagadougou. This
is instability per excellence!
It is equally on this framework
that one start to appreciate the insertion of Boko Haram into the geopolitical
equation. Boko Haram is an extra-African geopolitical insertion to weaken
Nigeria and Africa. Solution to Boko
Haram is openly appreciated in Ndjamena and apparently this conclusion was
misread public by Dr Goodluck Jonathan’s presidency, who made the biggest error
with his ill-fated Paris visit a year ago.
On this note President Buhari’s move is wise on the surface; the
diplomatic hurdle will be in obtaining full agreement in a short time with
minimum French & Washington DC obstructions.
Nigeria’s current status
including conflicted Foreign Affair ministry & hostaged Armed Forces
leadership indicates that the time line of eliminating Boko Haram as a threat
may take longer than anticipated. The levers of geopolitical initiative
unfavourable to Abuja are partly pulled in Paris and endorsed in Washington DC.
Currently and for a long time Nigeria has played passive role & subservient
disposition below her full diplomatic potential in her relationship with both
capitals. Nevertheless the presidential visits surely restore confidence in
both capitals, reopen weakened channels and encourage sustained interaction
with Nigeria.
The Other Summit
President Buhari left Ndjamena
for Germany to attend G7 meeting in Germany. Of course Nigeria is not a member
and the agenda issue are contentious. The reason for inviting Nigeria (lumped with
Liberia, Iraq), a current geopolitical lightweight can be read as sub-text of an
imposed grand design rather than with elation for winning diplomatic brownie
points. Nevertheless, a few issues need to be mentioned in advanced.
It is must be appreciated that a
person of President Buhari’s experience and capacity should adhere to
diplomatic norms especially in full knowledge that Nigeria is not a banana
republic. His pre-inaugural visit to the United Kingdom in un-presidential,
geopolitically distasteful and diplomatically unsavvy. The message must have
been closely watched in Beijing, Moscow, Pretoria, Brasilia, Tehran& Delhi.
Nevertheless there is an
opportunity for President Buhari to talk, listen and read presentations of G7
members without giving anything away. G7 has questionable design on Nigeria. It
must be an exploratory visit bearing in mind that National Assembly and various
ministries are still in post-election mode and gradually settling down. G7 has
made clear her policy on Africa with the recent regressive murderous demarche
on migrant crossing the Mediterranean Sea. It must also not be lost on the
President that G7 is a global destabilising force. The strategic trajectory of
the group is unfavourable and tilts heavily on the negative be it economy, security,
politics, health, culture, education and religion. Abuja must take stock and
avoid particularly taking on spurious regressive geoeconomic policies like TIPP
in the guise that Nigeria is Africa’s largest market!
Most discussion time must be
allocated with US team especially at the lower levels for meatier details,
followed by France team. It must be stated that Paris is not always in sync
with Washington DC despite her rapidly declining fortunes. With limited information
of geopolitically experienced members of the team at the time of writing, the
President is not a greenhorn in global geopolitics with his mettle as Oil
Minister and Head of State. Historically, he’s one of the only 2 Nigeria’s Heads
of State that maintained robust diplomacy with the West in their
administration. The other was General Muhammed who stood down United States a la Kissinger during the Angolan
imbroglio. It is strange that both administrations didn’t last long.
The Other History
Observing the changing global
scenario and reconfiguring geopolitics, President Buhari is aware of the
transfer and consolidation of economic power in the east i.e. Asia led by China.
This singular fact must be considered in all diplomatic and geopolitical
dimensions of pursuing Nigeria’s strategic interests. China is a heavyweight
that cannot be ignored and in acknowledgement mustn’t be acquiesced to easily.
China is the behest of new &
unstoppable geopolitical configurations unfurling new diplomatic momentum which
is beyond erstwhile capacity of the West to impinge or reverse. A number of
institutional developments must be noted by the President and his incoming team
across the board as opportunities for Nigeria. These include but not limited to
Brazil, Russia, India, China & South Africa (BRICS), BCRICS New Development
Bank, Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) & Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation (SCO).
There is a strategic need and necessity
for the incoming team to contain West-centred worldview and cautiously
acknowledge recent & consolidating global geopolitical dynamics led by
Beijing. It is imperative to specifically diminish credibility ascribed to the
geo-economic design of Bretton Woods’ institutions with a view towards higher
flexibility on independence and strategic decision making. Nigeria is at a
comfortable position & equilibrium to tap into declining West and rising
East for Nigeria’s narrow interest and as step-board towards securing Africa’s
interest. Until Abuja appreciate the weight of her continental
responsibilities, the administration may struggle not just in the domestic
front but on the geopolitical/international space.
Conclusion
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