Introduction
All of a sudden national media is
collectively pouring out of the various voices of pseudo-reason on the state of
the national economy as if anything radical is taking place. Nevertheless there
is an overdrive in warning about it in the similar manner elites shout on the
‘indivisibility of one Nigeria’ while all along dividing it by proxy. Now
everyone with microphone is nothing short of a Nobel Laureate in Economics
waxing lyrical on macro side of the sun at one time and forgetting the meat of
the story all the time before and after. So what is missing? Have a ride on the
short summary below.
A State devoid of State
There are 2 main cohorts in the
population found within the territory called Nigeria; the silent victims-majority
across all ethnic nations and the loud minority elite interlocking in a
powerful network across all ethnic nations. The majority have watched national
events since 1914 and concluded that watching is not a bad trait. In a twist of
fate watching is appropriated as a positive variable on quality of life for
this group. They diligently watch the elite eviscerate everything a state
should be in the last 3 generations which only produced confusion, waste,
malfeasance and death. Therefore they cannot be deceived into accepting that
the economy should be robust in confusion lighted by controlled demolition of state
structures. Where is the State in Nigeria?
Denial of History
One of the highest achievements
of the loud minority is the elimination of history and History from national
consciousness. Even before 24-hours news arrived to decapitate attention span
and thinking, the dogma of ahistoricity was instituted with seamlessness that
an average majority can only in silence seek his/her roots beyond the 2nd
generation. The drowning on his/her soul on technical secular education
dehumanised his essence to the level of immediate sensory perception devoid of
context. He/she is free to condemn those who came before without and against
reason while evidence piles for consumption.
No, it is not validated by the
North. No Dr Kenneth Dike, the foremost economist historian and his like count
for nothing. Even as the last blocks of neoliberal edifice successfully managed
by Chinese communists totters, he/she refuses to recall the wisdom of the past.
If you don’t know yesterday/origin, how can tomorrow/destination be navigable?
If such journey were Nigerian economy? What goes up comes down and up again.
Remember Shagari administration? How much did crude oil sell under his watch?
If you care check it out!
Consumption without Production
(Financialisation)
First of all there is no electricity
and by the way the refineries are condemned for sale. Solar energy is toy on
serious development. For the past 40 years Nigeria has been selling crude oil
and other unaccounted national resources, spend the income on anything money
can buy including imported toothpicks. Yes, General Gowon (Syndrome) unleashed
this demon that refuses to leave the hall called Nigeria. For all the noise,
policy documents, implementation initiatives and prostitution for foreign
investment; production is minus.
Even money is exported to foreign banks and
the other nations’ wastes are imported for show. And you are asking why the
economy has tanked? Toxic waste was once imported into Nigeria with bill of
lading to boot and cleared at a port near either Warri or Sapele. No, it is not
CBN, independent or not whatever it means! If you don’t produce and don’t save;
surely after the rain comes the sun or vice versa.
Unaccounted Accumulation not
Resource Scarcity
When the current administration
blamed the preceding one for all the ills and wrongs of the country, you wonder
if Nigeria has been under former President since 1960. National power has
changed hands between elites with and without uniform. National accountability
is anathema in Nigeria, the tradition has taken root and to uproot it will take
more than singing in one’s evening of life. If there was a government(s) that
paid attention to economic accountability, it expired in 1966.
So crude oil can sell for any
price by the way the selling price is not fixed or determined in Nigeria or by
Nigerians. They can sell it in Naira which is even splendid at least there will
be no temptation to print money or prop it up with another paper called US
dollar. Unsold volumes remain underground for another day. Until sold crude oil
receipts are audited and accounted for let every trap simply shut its dignity
on current diving prices.
Ignorance of Geopolitics
Who is Nigeria’s Foreign
Minister? Until the economy improves and domestic arena takes shape!
While we wait for answer to the
above question to filter in, the last few months have displayed an
administration that deliberated extricates itself from real global geopolitical
reconfiguration. The visit to US, attendance of G7 summit and other western
diplomatic soup kitchens all point to the same door; Washington DC. There are
other parts of the world and other serious players too. Unreconstructed
western-centricity is disastrous in foreign policy as Malaysia showed in the
1990s.
Few warning signs were ringing.
US recalibrated her position on Nigeria by stopping crude oil imports. Buyers
are customers and customer is king but Abuja can only swallow likes and
dislikes given her by Washington DC. In addition US under an ‘African-American’
showed real Africa policy in Libya and Egypt, and what happened to terrorism?
Any lessons or do you read only democracy while others see naked power? Is
Nigeria not threatened?
OPEC ceased to exist with the
passing of Venezuela’s Commandante Hugo Chavez and retirement of Iran’s Dr
Mahmoud Ahmedinajad. Next Saudi Arabia launched is geopolitical offensive in
2015 with overproduction phalanx and continues the policy till date. The
dividend is in the crystal ball. The icing on the cake is her all-out offensive
on Yemen; surely Riyadh can fight on many fronts. Any lesson for Abuja?
Lastly, we warned about potential
impacts of a successful conclusion of Iran – P5+1 nuclear negotiation. There
were no takers in Abuja. Tehran is singing for snatching a deal from Washington
DC without paying in war blood, Havana did the same. Any lesson for Abuja or
Nigerians? Crude oil price will dive into single digit before stabilising. OPEC
may go, Yemeni conflict ceases and new contracting quota system subsists for
crude oil price to go north.
Conclusion
Crude oil glut and price depression have their time. Many
responsible countries lack crude oil and care more for crude oil exporter's revenue (legal and illegal). Nigerians, please wake up.
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