Last month was the first of conclusive steps in United Kingdom’s exit from the multi-state continent group European Union. In a sense UK have spent the last 5 years working feverishly
to overcome what seem apparently like an crisis of identity but in reality is a
natural response to emerging shifts in geopolitical power. The thrust of this
discuss is to draw historical contours of this response in view of wider reconfigurations,
isolate what remains for the Kingdom and summarise some evident post-Brexit
structures.
Europe has been a sustained
theatre of geopolitical contests for the last 500 years. In most of these
centuries, power projection is coupled with fire power finally decided in major
wars where and when necessary. To say the least, Europe is a violent space and such heritage remains
near the surface despite a gap of conflict in the last 70 years. When the fate
of post-WW11 was decided in Yalta, the real winners where United States and
Soviet Union. United Kingdom at the table was no better than France outside. Evidently
both winners divided the spoils of war i.e. Europe between them with the
marking west of Vistula (Poland) on the doorsteps of Elbe (West Germany). This cartographic
reality sustained by mutually agreed deception known in the West as Cold War endured
till 1991.
As 2nd rate players on
the western flank with full awareness of history, UK and France spearheaded a dual
renewal based on remaining colonial possessions in Africa & Asia under US
imprimatur and revaluation of their common European home. As Churchill was
deluding with grandiose global panache of uneconomically pedigree he locked totally in Washington DC embrace, De Gaulle was clear that French hegemony was
limited in the face of the ascendant United States. As a professor of history and
fluent in German he fully understood his remit. Keep out the Anglo-Saxons for a
while!
His grand strategy was simple. Nip
future German aggression in the bud by tying her down with trade arrangements
powered by Paris and Bonn (then West Germany capital). He approached Adenauer,
the German chancellor and they fleshed out a phased programme for European integration
starting with 6 countries. UK was not part of the 6. With the Treaty of Rome in
the bag, institutionalised Europe was decided, created and progressed. It was a
success. De Gaulle ensured that UK will play no part and that 'law' was effective
until his death. United States had no problem with the idea and its substance after
all she was the unrivalled master of Europe.
Bearing in mind that France is a
permanent UN member with huge colonial possessions, was blinded by the complexity
of a stale geopolitical identity which expressed itself in her wasteful wars in Indochina
and Algeria. Nevertheless the cost of wars and cost of post-war reconstruction
naturally opened the door to embrace trade in a global market. UK was deftly
reconfiguring her colonies with ‘peaceful’ arrangements of future neo-colonial
control with an awareness that the Commonwealth market is limited.
UK cannot be successful while
removed from Europe, so with the demise of De Gaulle applied for EC membership
and was accepted with Ireland in 1973. It was convenient for London to play in
the new field of successors between US and USSR taking advantage of the new EC geopolitical
realignment to advance trade expansion, technological advancement and
diplomatic maneuvers. Falkland Wars was an
example where France halted weapon sales to Argentina for UK interest.
The African
space was collectively manacled with the odious Africa-Caribbean-Pacific (ACP) wireframe called Lomé Convention. Simply
put it specifies that ACP states are the markets while EC is the seller with
limited access for ACP products in her market. This remains the case today. In a sense EC/EU arrangement suited
London, Paris and Bonn/Berlin for a time. London’s status as a global financial
centre became ascendant with the Thatcher regime drawing capital from the EC.
The weight of UK in EC/EU mustn’t be underestimated, it was a heavyweight but
this was not causing discontent at home.
The collapse of the Soviet Union
brought new realities to Europe and Berlin made the most of it by pragmatically
restoring its sphere of influence. Starting with German reunification and
advancing the collapse of Yugoslavia, it gradually stepped up the plate with
its huge resources towards fuller mastery of Europe. Despite US geopolitical
primacy, other developments in Russia and Asia especially Japan, China and
India; opened the door to challenge the global order in various fronts.
United States found it cheaper
to produce in Asia (with tax cuts) and progressed its deindustrialisation while
concentrating on the niche/military/high technological footprints. Only Germany
was ascending in similar path with economic growth, economic development and
silent diplomacy on the world stage. EU’s advantage surged. With a new currency (Euro) constructed on the German Deutsch Mark, Germany became EU banker and lender of
last resort.
With sustained less than 2% economic
growth, poverty of innovation and limited industrial production, France and UK are
bound to stagnate. With domestic interest rate at 0% for nearly 2 decades
freezing savings out, declining wages and widening societal gaps; London was
condemned to confront discontent and polarisation in its domestic politics. Failure
to admit irresponsibility is equal to finding an enemy and EU fitted the bill
and was baptised thus. All politics is economic! Simply put, Berlin is the rivalled master of Europe with the paraphernalia, wealth and influence.
With Trumpian US making clear its
preference for an isolated hegemony devoid of remoras, UK was contained towards
imposed renewal drawn the poverty of a virile political elite. So with rising
Asia, consolidating Russia, buoyant EU and stirring rest of the world; UK had
one way to go. The historical baggage of empire days languished in the face of modern
aggressive geopolitical competitors. A test case is the recent past purchase of
5G network from Hauwei. UK lacks the technology and lack the resources to
purchase costlier options from its western partners.
UK has never been far from
Europe. It has decided the fate of many outcomes on the continent. She is a beneficiary of Westphalian geopolitical infrastructure. However the
recent ascendance of Berlin is perceived as both a challenge and message. Germany
was defeated in 2 horrible conflicts, and has emerged to take the hotspot two
generations later without a shot. Germany is the new rivalled master of Europe, of course
US is the security chief.
As UK returns to her place the chalky
islands across the channel, it is important to stress that she is not a loser
in the real sense as states are not condemned to remain ad infinitum in alliances. Alliances
are parallel envelopes for short-term and medium-term expressions of grand
strategy. London remains a permanent member of the UN with veto power, it
possess nuclear arsenals, has limited armed force in terms extra-territorial
projection/deployment ability and sustains a working economy. Her physical boundary is
limited to North Atlantic waters and Northern Ireland on land. It wasn’t so in 1920.
Her global influence continues to
weld through perception of its values, identities and image. One example is the
recent past UK-Africa summit where African heads of state huddled together in London raptly
focused on a dishevelled and inaudible prime minister. So the strong do what
they can, the weak suffer what they must.
UK remains one of the great
powers in or out of the EU. Still a premier European state!
No comments:
Post a Comment