Reflecting on Western Instability and Uncertainty from Africa

 Introduction

Observation is an empirical art influenced by complex variables connected to different  observers. Nevertheless general patterns do emerge over time despite the fact that they are limited in terms of offering specific answers to current facts on the ground. Using long durée approach, patterns of less than 500 years old carry lightweight. This is the case with observing the West i.e. United States including her protectorates (Germany, Japan, South Korea etc), United Kingdom and her underlines (Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc). Viewed from Africa, these states loom larger than life with an almost intellectual and metaphysical suffocation disconnected from reality. A critical reflection of the same data from Africa (of the rolling 500 years) in the last decade (contrary to daily fake news) reveal patterns that have been in place all the time suggesting that these capitals and their chancelleries are rather expressions of enduring human condition.

After 2011

2011 is an important year for Africa and Africans because this is the year when the last shred of collective dignity and potent sovereignty evaporated with the murder of Col Ghaddafi and the destruction of Libya. The result has been a reinforcement of regressive unjustifiable leadership across the continent but also an explosion of enormous pressure on the minority voices clamouring for true enduring change for the majority.

The intellectual class formed on uncritical ideas and poisonous hand-me-down theories from western thinkers continue to froth passionately their assumed solutions without evidence. Most in the religious sphere excluding indigenous religions continue to peddle their conflation of fake Christianity with rationalist European mantra plus gaps in true Islam. For these, salvation is Western Europe and United States. Alternative voices continue to struggle to be heard despite the absence of clear ideological footprint. Prior to 2020, celebration of stagnation and consolidation of ontological poverty turned into national treasure in Egypt, Senegal, Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia, DR Congo and South Africa.

On the economic front the capital sin of international trade took a divine right posture where domestic currencies are eliminated for the enthronement of the dollar and euro. In the case of Nigeria, headlines bloom with findings of billions of foreign currency in officials’ homes. Evidently the owners validate their inability to redirect resources for common good. Capital flight is most evident from the same officials that wire huge number abroad to invest in foreign economies for the wellbeing of foreigners. Apparently, governments don’t work so anything the powerful elite do in private suffices. Nothing trickles down and none will trickle down. Is it just an African problem? The same human right champions of the West look the other way as their affirmation of ‘justice’. Let us see how they have performed so far?

Western Unravelling

As Africans continue their’ suffering and smiling’ in victimhood imposed by their own leaders over the decade, the Western elite radically advanced the integration of African economies through financial technological means. This consolidation of capital accumulation and financialization is underpinned by unlimited exploitation of Africa’s mineral resources. Geopolitically, the so-called independent states were further balkanised without fixed geographies to enable seamless illegal transfers at the cost of millions of lives. All profits, blood money, capital and precious resources go north. This is the pattern. Even the French-speaking countries must obtain Paris’ approval on their central banking, fiscal and monetary policies. A comfortable place to be across generations!

Then came December 2021 when Moscow sent 2 treaties to the United States to codify the cessation of NATO eastern expansion. Moscow was rubbished with condescending impunity. This is the same smart elite that ran with legs touching the back of their heads from Kabul earlier. From February 2022 a new mechanism arrived through the barrel of the gun, the first peer-to-peer exchange between nuclear powers in the battlefield. A geoeconomic settlement of accounts rather than a geopolitical consolidation by means of war!

With the onslaught entering its 3^rd year the gloss has worn off digital pretence. This is the first conflict where the profits yield in limitation for the US. It is certainly making profit off its European vassals and satraps. Its vaunted weapons, military tactics and strategic initiatives have unravelled. In the economic heartbeat of Europe, the German elite stabbed their national interest with radio silence at the Nord Stream pipeline destruction. United Kingdom is hollowed out by funding NATO conflict while France’s compounding problems improved with expulsion from former African Sahel and the first sacking of a prime minister in generations. In South Korea recently, the president rushed to martial rule in the absence of credible national threat.

Plain Truth

Africans are observing these emerging patterns with complex dispositions. They are real and undenied. Many questions, numerous lack of answers and certain volume of daze. What is the difference between Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire and Olaf Schulz of Germany? What is the line between Kier Starmer of UK and Mohammed Said Barre on Somalia? What is dissimilar between Jean Bokassa of CAR and Emmanuel Macron of France? Nothing. They are united in unleashing destruction on their country and peoples.

This is the point that most Africans need to recover from fast. There is no such thing as civilised people, advanced populations, superior nations and all sorts. Human dignity human condition are universal. Both are irreducible. Error, impunity, corruption, glory, abuse and excellence are never up for monopoly. Development can never be imported. The first development law is the admiration of one’s being, family and people rather than material derivatives. No people need permission to stand up, to remain standing and to die standing. The same western elite that seem invincible to Africans have no qualms subjecting their own peoples to oppression and death in the name of national interest.

This is the simple lesson of our reflection.

Africa Renaissance 2.0

Introduction

A refreshed intergenerational global wind is picking up strength which is impacting every corner of the planet with various degrees of outcomes. African nations and states are not only aware of this round but are active participants in its making and benefits. Suffice to say that the global geopolitical framework that took effect after world war 2 is bursting at the seams. Growing evidence consolidates its unfitness for purpose. Now we are concerned with surveying the so-called African regional powers and their status in the short term.

A Hegemon in Self-Demotion

In the grand strategic scheme of things United States of America has run its course, given that she can no longer satisfactorily undertake without challenge self-assigned tasks of full-spectrum policing of the world. NATO-Russia and West Asian conflicts testify this fact unequivocally. Like the USSR earlier through internal disequilibrium and misuse of resources, after nearly 2 generations US has finally set her course irreversibly south. 

Africa is an unmitigated victim of this holistic imperial domination, a holdover of a continuum from the violent and brutal colonialism of rapacious Europe. Under Washington DC’s watch, virulent neocolonialism unfurled its flag as the European colonial powers played second base to her while continuing the indirect neoliberal process of mass subjugation, oppression and murder. In any case till date, few African states are excluded from the civilisation-stripping machine front-desked by indigenous elite and political assets. Only Tanzania, Botswana and Namibia remain unmolested by indigenous-led post-independence dark tunnel digging.

Big is not always Beautiful

As the Russo-Ukrainian conflict winds down inevitably, the first peer-to-peer conflict for the US with her loss acknowledged by her own leaders, its effects are already manifesting across the world including Africa. Giants don’t fall alone, they take many far and near down with them. The ripple effects of a hegemon collapse endure over time and space. Nevertheless, US will remain a top player with massive influence and colonial impunity on militarily weak satrapies in Europe, South America and Africa. However an implication suggests that such effects unfolding slowly but surely in Africa will be influenced by numerous factors and variables. In this phase, the so-regional powers are not only excluded from its fuller advantage rather display reactionary moves to consolidate their regressive patterns of state impunity.

After US destruction of Libya in 2011, Egypt’s place was reconsolidated in her orbit in north Africa. Cairo is not and will not be a space of progressive change in the short-term so far as Washington DC sustains Egyptian elite with huge military aid and other largesse. Sadat syndrome that took root from Camp David Accord eliminated Cairo as an effective force in internal and foreign affair respectively for at least 2 generations. Realistic Egyptian regional leadership died with Gamal Nasser while Anwar Sadat’s imprimatur will loom for some time. Simply put, post-Nasser Egypt has no leadership responsibilities in Africa. The year-long catastrophe in West Asia particularly the situation of Palestinians draws currency from (Sadat) Egyptian relegation of responsibility and downgrading of Palestine to a mere refugee problem. So the renewed wind of African rebirth 2.0 will pick strength with Cairo on the sidelines.

In the West African shatterbelt, the main regional power until recently was France. De Gaulle’s neocolonial architecture was refreshed by successive occupants of Elysee Palace until her strategic regression forced resources away from President Macron. In the background is the fact that Nigeria was not, is not and will be a credible power in the short-term regardless of her associated potentials. Abuja denotes a perfect role of a colonial state transformed seamlessly into an indigenous neocolonial state committed to internal destruction underpinned by reprehensive institutional violence and clinical corruption. With an elite and political carpetbaggers nourished by thoughtlessness, historical amnesia and civilisation stripping; one doesn’t need a crystal ball or be an anthropologist in October 1960 to see that the future direction pointed south. As a house with faulty foundation, only a sword of Damocles overhangs a decision to either undertake uncertain costly refoundation or continue habitation until inevitable collapse. Nigeria will watch African renaissance 2.0 with a powerful telescope.

The long eastern coastline is dripping in uncertainty to narrow down serious contenders for serious change. Ethiopia’s has cut a path out of the western swamp to the comity of nations in the nascent BRICS. Addis Ababa has certainly made an irreversible geostrategic move towards the new uncharted water of multi-nodal global geopolitical realignment. She is actually engineering and fast-forwarding a difficult structural change and framework reordering in a very hazardous neighbourhood. It is rather noteworthy that Emperor Haile Selassie clung tightly to the imposed colonial order as the enduring template for Africa’s stabilisation. His grave is undergoing tremors since his country lost its coastline and continental shelves to Eritrea. Addis Ababa is displaying boldness and assertiveness towards Africa 2.0 that deserves a careful observation.

On the southern front a sublime stability reigns with punctations of uncertainty visible across the region. Conflicts and post-conflict realities continue to dodge effective government penetrations, policy implementation and internal security. Nevertheless South Africa seem to steal thunder from its post-apartheid embedding with strategic compromise. To accuse Nelson Mandela of betrayal is an understatement. He was just a neoliberal asset, a neocolonial handbag with intergenerational blood on his hands. It is not farfetched that powerful influences in ANC suddenly decided that the latest peak moment in Palestinian-Israeli conflict offered a rare opportunity to start righting historical injustice. There is no reason to deny Pretoria’s indefatigability and defiance in withstanding full-spectrum pressure against her stand with the Palestinian file at the International Court of Justice.

Conclusion

The jury is still out on the true nature and scope of Pretoria’s strategic commitment to Africa 2.0 given that many of its current elite and political class draw inspiration and sustenance from Nelson Mandela playbook on strategic betrayal of intergenerationally oppressed peoples. In summary, our hypothesis on the resistance of regional powers to new wind of global change is still a strong invitation.  

African Leadership in the Post-United States Era

Introduction

The current story of leadership in Africa leaves a lot to be desired at all levels. Tragic and unpleasant narratives continue to dominate the continent two generations after most of the successors of colonial states gained so-called independence. What is counted as independence of nation-states are limited exclusive operations that transform the majority into victims of state aggression across the board. In this article our limited attention is on the potential opportunities implicit in United States overreach and decline. United States is the last form of western imperial colonial state.

Spectre of Colonial Mentality

Many may wonder why ‘colonial’ is mentioned two generations after the colonial era. A typical critic is fiercely seeking answers to the problem of leadership in Africa over the same period. Opposing arguments insist that the so-called independent states were equipped in statecraft plus accruing human resources over the generations. If so, why have the result been gross underperformance? Part of the problem is historical amnesia that fuel the false narrative that colonial projects were benevolent and beneficial to the people. There is no evidence in this regard.

The idea that colonial projects departed from civilisation mission to genuine investment in people-oriented values is intellectually dishonest. Not a single colonial project respected the indigenous peoples and tolerated genuine democracy, civilisation, progress and human rights. No colonial official was ever elected. Top-down bureaucratic operations, impunity, massacres and genocides were normalised in these profit-making projects. The mission statement of the project were based on false representation and devaluation of Africans. Once a peoples’ identity is questioned, their existence is appropriated.

The British, French, Portuguese, Italians, Germans and Spanish left horror legacies that continue to haunt us. The atrocities of Belgian King Leopold in DR Congo left a trail of intergenerational dehumanisation inherited by Mobutu and his successors. Similar cases dominate most of the continent. Preference of one colonial project over another is a testimony from the lunatic fringe. The so-called independence never brought holistic liberation of the peoples rather a radical regressive alteration of destinies and hybridisation of existence. People cannot give what they lack. Hence today most Africans are victims of repression, alienation, exclusion and marginalisation from leadership at all levels inherited and extended from colonial projects.  The cost is high in blood.

Items of Impossible

The fall of Kabul in 2021 signalled the end of uncontested US imperial prerogative and the decline of North Atlantic hegemony. The current loss-making conflicts in both Ukraine and Palestine simply confirm enduring patterns of irreversible decline of a panic-stricken ex-hegemon. With unsustainable public debt, decline of the US dollar, defeat in Ukraine, establishment of Iranian deterrence in West Asia, Yemeni mastery of the Red Sea and Palestinian endurance; potentials are growing for credible African renewal. 

New Conversation

Time has come for new focus and new collective sharing on the implications of dynamic geopolitical reconfigurations. Young people in West Africa are already chewing over what independence means, discerning enduring patterns for dignified existence and taking steps to advance the sanctity of their lives. For those who are still undecided, deep conversations are needed for sober assessment of the last two generations in an authentic embrace of histories. A people without active historical agency cannot stand.

US decline is significant in clarifying US citizens place in the world as normal people without exceptional qualities or manifest destiny. They built an empire with an expiry date that activated this decade for another empire to take the stage. Hence North Atlantic domination of the world for almost half a millennia is over.

African discussions must be honest, truthful, hopeful and trustworthy. Independence, dignity and sanctity doesn’t come from outside. No amount of intellectual and material investment outlines existential and ontological values of peoples in their community. A critical and deep review of the colonial project deserve penetrating exchanges because it continues to dominate conventional view of correctness and completeness despite the absence of both.

In addition, parallel discussions of indigenous legacies deserve utmost attention as foreign inputs have shown their cost in blood. True, no people have the monopoly of discernment, wisdom and knowledge. However any development not anchored on the unique experience of the people in a territory is futile. Equally when people decide to sleep with blanket of excuses for their miserable state, the status quo remains. Positive reversals don’t take long.

Any African leader at any level who is unable to factor in rapid change is irrelevant. Any leader without clear replicable plan of action, key performance indicators and critical success factors is malfeasant. Most importantly if African peoples at all levels refuse to engage, organise and mobilise for their personal and collective advancement in their unique experiences; current costs will continue to mount.

Conclusion

It is time for Africans to once again read sign of the times, take another look at ourselves in the spirit of unlearning and relearning to exchange on our status quo. Other peoples in other continents are defiantly taking their destinies in their hands. An authentic historical review of our past particularly the colonial project that unleashed our current sufferings through ugly nation-state leadership deserve urgent attention. A new narrative is essential, a narrative of independence, dignity and sanctity. Our existential and ontological constitutions are irreducible, non-negotiable and indispensable.

African Response to Vatican Slip Up

The Christian albeit Catholic world received a deserved New Year present from Africa. It is the present of theological orthodoxy and orthopraxis, with intergenerational implications. The background to this African testimony of maturity is the recent decision by the Vatican directing bishops/priests to bless homosexuals and lesbians in relationships. There's only one valid relationship in the church, marriage between one man and one woman.

If anyone was seeking for a credible sign of theological & spiritual compromise of Catholic leadership, look no further. Instead of seeking the Holy Spirit on biblical authority, trusting the Eucharist aligned with sacred tradition, worship is devolved to mere man to crush his maker in the name of progress. Just peruse the quality of post-announcement damage control by Dicastery for the Doctrine of Faith.  

You wonder what motivated this decision. A single reason, absence of faith in Jesus the Christ. 2000+ years testimony is rejected and despised. Such a radical departure from orthodox teaching should have considered a number of points including (a) reactions from Catholics in the Global majority (b) reaction of other Christians in the Global majority (c) the position of Orthodox Catholics (d) position of Muslims (e) position of global believers in all religions, cultures and creeds. Christian unity and inter-religious dialogue are seriously harmed.

That decision reflects European and North American church leadership intransigence, and their overthrow of faith to elevate pride. This decision aligned with Atlantic geopolitical currents validates the position that religion isn't a variable of importance. A final gesture to secularisation and flourishing ode to enlightenment! These views assert that for them God is indeed dead. Faith in Jesus left Europe long ago.

Then rose African bishops in solidarity and unanimity to reject the decree boldly declaring that they refuse to implement it in their dioceses based on biblical authority, sacred tradition and demand of indigenous religio-spiritual authenticity. Faithful pastors who know their faith, missions and constituencies! This is a brilliant sign with huge potentials for replication in other spheres of African endeavour. A first!

This decision destroys in a single strike the attitude of Africans Catholics to Vatican with proverbial 'yes father'. The pendulum has swung, true faith is outside of Europe and North America. There's little Christianity to learn from these spaces and from such cultures. Interestingly, the Vatican decision confirmed a recurring Marian apparitions warning of division among bishops and cardinals on orthodoxy and orthopraxis. Pope Paul VI warned about Satan in the high places.

I hope and pray for African faithful to keep up the determination and tenacity implicitly demanded by this new defence of the faith on the world stage. In the meantime prayerful celebration is worthwhile in Africa and among Africans.