Thursday, 23 October 2025

Update on Africa’s Geopolitical Reconfiguration

Introduction

A few decades ago in certain African English-speaking neocolonies, it is not uncommon for educated but untransformed talking heads to wax lyrical on their perceived inadequacies of family branches in the French-speaking neighbourhoods. A triggers was football competitions where French teams dominated by African sons. Another was perceived economic certainty with the preponderance of 'stable' CFA franc linked to French franc at the time. Of course those boneheads had surplus poverty of history and blind spot on the concept of civilisation. Fast-forward to the present, so much has evolved from irreversible expulsion of unproductive forces by wise French-speaking neighbours. Therefore our focus is the current manifestation of the latest iteration of geostrategic changes in Africa. 

Conventional Wisdom

It is critical to stress from the beginning that full-spectrum European colonialism in Africa was a long-term geopolitical project with integrated geoeconomic, geostrategic and despiritual dimensions. As a civilisational enterprise, there was no methodological distinction in executing epistemic and physical violence of Africans on industrial scale strapped on the acquiescence of fake Christianity. It is therefore a weak intellectual debate as to differences in inhumanity perpetrated by Britain, France, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Italy, Denmark and Germany. There was a common design, common agenda and common strategy currently manifesting in the form of European Union.

Furthermore, flag-independence agreements on immutability of colonial boundaries, European language lingua franca, limited intra-African trade and rejection of true sovereignty are set in stone. Such mascara of illusion are forced down millions of children across 2 generation through poisonous public education system to reject themselves and keep looking north. Any dissent is visited with either divide-and-conquer or shoch-and-awe. History is littered with examples of such normalised disequilibrium countersigned by so-called indigenous nationalists and independence fighters. 6 decades later reveal them to be no less opaque as most of their legacies lie in ruins borne by innocent millions crushed by their malignant decisions.  This set the structure for temporal colonial extension prolonged in the flag-independent flowers of neocolonialism contracted to the indigenous elite.

Neocolonial Geopolitical Culture

The British worked hard to ensure that their colonies where handed over to pliant satraps or to a divided ensemble of pretenders who unceasingly sang the moderate line of illegitimacy. Nigeria is the classic example where prior to flag-independence all players knew that they had no future apart from their stomach allowances. Sudan fell under the sway of immediate instability which still echoes till today while Nasser and Nkrumah were churned out quickly complementing their operational insensitivities. On the French side after the debacle of Algeria; le vieux Boigny held the forth in Abidjan for France Afrique, Bongo in Libreville while Senghor waxed negritude in Dakar to no effect. 

Mobutu massaged Zaire for Bruxelles backed by Washington DC (uranium for US WW2 atomic bombs came from here) while the rest of Portuguese and Spanish colonial ventures turned into textbooks of genuine African revolutionary triumph baptised in blood. The 1970s, 1980 and 1990s came and went with seeds of hope struggling. When a fuller account is drawn decades later most neocolonial spaces are no more better than a century ago as geographies of holistic stagnation while foreign curators regurgitate their certainty that Africans flourish in suffering and smiling. Or do they?

New Facts on the Ground

The murder of Col Muammar Ghaddafi in 2011 was a watershed moment for many Africans particularly on the West African French-speaking neighbourhood in view of the immediate destabilising impact and the outsized role of President Sarkozy. Of course, part of the geopolitical gambit include the humiliation of Ivorians on their own turf. What is left out of narratives is the resistance culture in many communities that fell to the French. Many West African peoples faced down French forces with formidable solidarity and strategic response that compromised designs and inflated cost setting the stage for intergenerational enmity whose explosion would occur at the critical mass of time. A profound aspect of these struggles and resistance is the role of Islam in checking French penetration.

So what appeared like post-WW2 surface geopolitical stability enacted by Charles de Gaulle simmered with tectonic pressure until it tipped over with post-2011 French overreach. A country with a debt accounting over 100% of its GDP can only play for time before its weakness turns into a rout. Descendants of the marginalised and humiliated particularly led by gallant armed forces of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso saw the writing on the wall with each hefty stream of intelligence. Holding territory and conducting conflict is pure money business. After centuries of impunity, stealing and murder in Africa; new facts are emerging on the gradual decline of French power projection. The 3 cited countries became economically sovereign for the first time from 2022, yes. For decades, they and others were run like departments/ministries of the French government from Paris.

Uhuru is still far away but its winds are picking up new strength. Gabon swung from Bongo dynasty and Madagascar has at least recently confirmed another puncture in the French geopolitical tyre. More is coming because the economic and political prognosis of Europe devoured by deindustrialization and war debt imposed by US profiteering can only raise new possibilities. Ascendant geopolitical powers are equally driven by weighty geostrategic interests calling for higher interrogation and detailed analyses for African consumption. Still culture and attitudes to power by African elite remains neoliberal, anti-people, anti-solidarity and anti-indigenous. Crisis of knowledge remain in the firm embrace of crisis of identity. The road is very long.

Conclusion

A new era of possibilities is upon Africa inserted by renewed awareness and incremental relegation of regressive neocolonial forces currently facing massive costs that is blunting their geopolitical designs and power projection. Few African countries are stirring beyond rhetoric to commence genuine decolonisation for real independence. The currency of conflicts on the continents is an indicator of the challenge but the moment is pregnant with unknown options for deepening the path of restoration. This path is bumpy, rough and existential. One thing is very clear, for Africans, hope will be the last to die.

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