What Will Russia Do on the Emerging Phase of Perpetual "Middle East" Conflict?

"Middle East" Geopolitical Conflict Landmark

Airstrike Bombing, Beheading; ‘Legitimate’ Target-Collateral Damage, Atrocity

Introduction

The title is deliberate, reasonable and timely. The last decade has brought a new dimension to state sponsored violence as effective non-state sponsored purveyors of violence continue to decline. This is in part due to the demise of USSR in 1991 and associated collapse of ideological divide. If imagination is stretched to its limits it becomes apparent that violence of various forms is mostly sponsored by states directly or by proxy. With this picture, this article attempts a partial treatment through uncomfortable dalliance with ‘critical’ geopolitics in presenting the complexity of recent investment in state sponsored industrial violence around the world, the main requirements and various forms of competing justification descriptions (not narratives) in English (language).

‘Critical’ Geopolitics

The beauty of geography is that everything dabbles into it, like a form of intellectual prostitute. In the case of ‘critical’ geopolitics, it can be reduced to geopolitics without maps, a geopolitics without geography except for text and descriptors associated with locations and areas. The core of ‘critical’ geopolitics revolves around pathological repulsion of geographical core elements; scale, distance, distance, bearing and topography hence the intellectual allergy of maps and geography indeed. Within its fort of textual and discourse analysis, the objective of the article reconciles its essence to capture various dimension of conflicts and industrial violence in select urban spaces in Africa, Arab world and parts of south Asia.

New state-sponsored Industrial Violence Requirement

All conflicts are problems and all problems are projects and all projects have requirements for successful execution and solution. Napoleon Bonaparte was one the first generals who clearly articulated the role of finance or money as pre-requisite for successful prosecution of war. Despite the fact this position is that of a nation-state, the template is the same for liberation movements seeking self-determination, proxy groups seeking nebulous dividends and isolated group running for impervious expectations. It is on this note that conflict on industrial scale is surely a profit making venture requiring huge financing and bottomless lines of credit. Napoleon wasn’t the first to realise this as many successful and unsuccessful generals in antiquity expressed such awareness in their various campaigns.

Money among other requirements is no longer sufficient. Operating war machines on war path not only require support of nation-state citizens/residents but the war campaign must be imposed on them with noisy justifications of armchair ‘expert’ and inconclusive and uncoordinated reports of embedded & biased ‘reporters’. Having the media on side is now an inevitable part of a successful war machine to enable the imposer and impunity-purveyor win not just on the imposed battlefield but equally in the court of public opinion for ‘hearts’ and ‘minds'.

The media machine allows war makers (surely the global power elite) and industrial violence purveyors to commodify murder and industrial killings. Where morality is relativized and determined in a deliberate restrictive definition by the powerful, war and murders are turned into products cheaply accessed and obtained on any communication platform. This initially nauseating product dominates cable networks, newspapers and Internet. Unsurprisingly the repetition of the tired war ‘winning’ questionable narrative transforms the listener or viewer into a norm, careless and disinteresting mind whose consciousness on morality is murdered by a murder product imposed on the airwaves. 

These individuals unconsciously de-appropriate their rights of care, repudiate their right of investigation and at times give up their gift of critical analysis simply because on the surface the war theatre is far away from home.  This state of mind may not change when one of their own, a warrior ‘doing the job he/she loves’ is returned lifeless in a body bag. At this point critical thinking and basic analysis is eliminated by self-delusion and deliberate carelessness in part because the source of livelihood is not dented or seriously challenged.

Competing Justification Descriptions

War is not just an assault on human beings but more so a rape of their heritage, their essence, their ontology and on the earth. Violence purveyors have attempted to arrogate the powers of the impossible towards playing the complex game of ambiguity in their unquenchable belief in weapons precision, specificity of design and sophistication. Hence the use of words like ‘guided’, ‘precision’, and ‘surgical’ to justify lunatic abstraction from reality that weapon cannot be offensive and protective at the same time. 

None of the weapons given above-mentioned prefixes or adjectives have killed less people in Gaza, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Rather it maximises the indignity of taking human lives through caustic celebration of dehumanisation and degradation whose dignity is disturbingly reduced to the level of ‘collateral damage’. Even to the point that surviving victims are placed in a binary confusion of simultaneously confirming death of a loved one but no longer possess part of his/her humanity for burial.

As the world navigates through the last 2 decades with various unjust wars and unnecessary conflicts of madness, advanced weapons and sophisticated devices have being deployed in nothing short of barbarism and atrocities. Whether the powers that be acknowledge them or not is immaterial. 2011 Libyan (Africa) invasion by North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) under the direction of another African from afar only displayed unending barbarism, horror, atrocities and abominations in full glare of ubiquitous 24 hours media lens until other violence interests redirect them to new theatres. Libya is currently a real-time outcome of NATO barbarism, atrocities and abomination in their war planes, drones and foot-soldiers. Sadly Libya has not survived. Gaza is trying to.

The last few weeks have brought forward wider awareness of a stage on proxy outfit metamorphosis. Of course the metamorphosis has many stages to go as is the case with well-oiled and well strategized proxies. Their existence and operation is the only strategy in town for the violator-in-chief.  (Northern) Nation-states now exist only to make war, it is their raison d’être!

Posted images and motions of beheadings have been termed ‘barbaric’, ‘atrocious’ and ‘inhuman’ by the usual suspects. Yes, 24 hour media lens has become the leveller of different modes of murders for the same global population but carefully select audience(s). Even the bandwagon of illusory bunch of misplaced victims whose origins are the same war theatres and inappropriately labelled ‘moderates’ joined the chorus probably for self-preservation. In the absence of moral comparison talk less of justification of heinous methods of murder (by a knife or by F-15 or by Hellfire drone), no one or government can appropriate the right or power of event description or reallocation of meanings of violence expecting everyone in the English speaking world to follow slavishly.

Conclusion

Evidently these barbaric methods of murder on industrial scale mentioned above are globally geography neutral hence the fitting label of such analysis within ‘critical’ geopolitics. Of course local (regional) bias exist, anyone can be attacked anywhere. What is actually present but dismissed is that smaller proxy metamorphosis run parallel to regressive metamorphoses of the sponsors. It exhibits insecurity about the future which is best left like a sacred cow.

Future is a black box and only reinforcement of past glories and biased acknowledgement or attacks of unstoppable positive changes of other global players suffices. However the erstwhile foundation upon which the hubristic firmaments generating the disconnected conclusions have withered. It matters little what terms are associated with murder or by who made the association or to whom they is made for. Contextual implications of investment in violence and industrial killings may be multi-dimensional but its intergenerational component is immutable.

New geopolitical powers may be on the way to appropriate, refine and reallocate meanings in the violence & industrial murder dictionary. Whether others will follow slavishly is open to questions.

Ebola and Unravelling Global Geopolitical Reconfiguration

Introduction

The recent outbreak of Ebola virus in parts of West and Central Africa has projected a new dynamic in the relationship between African countries on one hand and their collective relationship with the so-called great (fading) powers. While the lethal nature of this virus is undeniable, it presented an opportunity for some global players to consolidate their myopic geopolitical designs on Africa through among other tools sustained misinformation, regressive reinforcement of counter-productive imagery of African peoples and deliberate attack on their own strategic economic interest. Nevertheless some African players have displayed astute and formidable response by eschewing panic and remaining open for business. These responses are the focus of this article.

Beyond Viral Attack

Ebola virus is one of the most lethal diseases to hit the scene. Its potency is amplified by the lack of a viable antidote. Baring noisy responses from the usual suspects, the primary geographies and states where the outbreak reoccur have no reason to avoid investment in drug research for an effective antidote. The idea that the so-called powers including Russia were sending experts to monitor and collect samples from victim-patients who they will not/never cure spoke volumes. 

There is no doubt an opportunity is identified by these powers towards development of vaccine not just to cure the disease but equally to extend their biological weapon stockpile. While some Africans perceive these actions as anti-Africa (which is of course misplaced), Ebola outbreak has real geopolitical implications and Africa in this case is the battleground while Africans will be the desperate and unrewarded guinea peas.

Managed BreakOut

Depending on the timeline of the current outbreak, in each country of outbreak the initial phase was highly localised in the cities or its outskirts and are clearly unmanaged due to poor investment in public service and accessible health care. There is no solid evidence indicating that it is beyond the capacity of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone governments to provide their citizens with adequate preventive health care system. These 3 countries have passed through conflicts of one kind or another in the last 3 decades, with the guns silent the leaders/elite should have invested in durable peace and stability.

The inexcusable absence of health facilities and lack of investment in resources offered few openings for the capitals to manage their expectations in questionable templates. The movement of an Ebola patient from Liberia under Liberian government imprimatur to Nigeria by air is not an accident. Nothing stopped the patient from making a b-line to United States or to Europe if obtaining the biggest attention is the priority. This is a dangerous move by Monrovia despite huge investment and resources made to bring it to stability. Abuja no doubt must take notice of this underhanded diplomatic foray by Monrovia.

However if other variables are fused together, it becomes apparent that some warfare is afoot. Strangely Monrovia allowed herself to be outmanoeuvred in a case of deadly biological weapon thereby threatening Nigeria’s national security. Nigeria has been struggling with weak governments at all levels, she is currently challenging by a non-state military actor and the government is running on diminished legitimacy. 

Considering that Liberia is more than a US client with huge US listening post on her territory, it makes sense that Nigeria is chosen as the first reception point of Ebola package to disconcert, intimidate and further destabilise the country. The patient not only died but other health professionals that attended to him equally died.

It is curious that other foreign doctors who contracted the virus in Sierra Leone and Liberia were evacuated by their countries under appropriate quarantine conditions and are given undisclosed treatment on arrival ensuring their survival.

Rapid Response

While western media doodled with misinformation when Middle East & Russia are not the priority, they continued their well-worn lines of diminution of Africa and African peoples. Nevertheless events started unfolding rapidly as various African governments rose to the challenge. Nigerian government timely marshalled out human and material resources to check, monitor and contain Ebola virus within her territory and entry/exit points. Within the country in places of interest including public and private sphere prevention kits were set up for all visiting citizens to ensure they do minimise potential contact with Ebola.

Huge information drive took over the airwaves across the country. You will be surprised that while Europe including many migrant Nigerians is riding on waves of apocalyptic demise of Africa, Nigerians on ground and other Africans refused to be locked down as they moved about their business. A sharp response and rebuke to the erstwhile masters of the world, the so-called great powers! It was clear that Nigeria was and remains open for business to those genuinely interested in advancing their mutually beneficial proposals/investments.

The main entry/exit airports/seaports/border post were equipped with professionals and equipments to check, monitor and identify and manage any case of Ebola arriving/departing in real time into/from the country. The organisation was excellent, professional and coordinated. There is no way anyone could slip through the net.

Air Opportunity

One of the initial reactions of Europe to Ebola outbreak was assuming positions of negative distraction. Europeans have recently been driven to zealous and obsessive anti-Russian position contrary to their collective strategic interest that Ebola offers little posture beyond knee-jerk reaction. French zeal amplified the knee-jerk action quite expectedly as Paris banned Air France flights to affected countries and flights to France directly coming from those countries.  Full flights were taking off from various European airports to West and Central African destinations filled with mostly Europeans. 

If one reviews French foreign policy on Africa in the last decade, evidence of incompetence abounds, originality of strategy vanishes, rather what become clear is a re-emergence of self-destructive erstwhile British lapdog strategy a la Sarkozy and now Hollande. In these policies and failures, you simply confirm the decline of the French state.

Now a strong African airline took the advantage of the situation as its hub turned into a beehive of flights to various African destinations including Conakry, Monrovia and Freetown. While on a recent rendezvous at this impressive city hub, I was deeply impressed that this great country and her airline seamlessly adapted to pick up profit that the French deliberately abandoned. It also expresses the problematic defining how French elite are disconnected from French people. French elite myopia at home and abroad is increasing at astronomical rate with only political and economic stagnation as dividend.

Africa Open for Business

While North America and Europe have decided their fates in a geographical limited world through violent expansion of interest and imposition by force of arms including pathological obsession with Middle East, Africa being both past and current victim of these designs is limping into a new era. This is contrary to Kissingerian conclusion that Africa is not a space of positive outcomes. Africans in various countries of the continent are working assiduously towards creating stable spaces for economic revival, political consolidation and economic development.

Ebola virus is not a threat to the lofty expectation dismissed by the West. China is part of this burgeoning partnership for nearly 2 decades and the partnership is still going strong. Dividends of the partnership are mutating across the continent with peculiar and unique contradictions albeit in a forward direction. It is rather sad and questionable that Russia is not part of this renaissance. As a great power without global geopolitical design of imposition, it is a combination of naivety and geopolitical miscalculation for Moscow to deprive herself of a strategic economic foothold in Africa.

Conclusion

Ebola virus recent outbreak has exposed weakness of many global players, reinforced the viability of Africa as a space of potential, a space of economic development and a space of progress. Within Africa, many countries with their unique structures are reforming their strategic relationships with various powers based on their unique experiences and expectation. The West is gradually retreating from Africa leaving only US gun and boots while China continues to display strategic depth in engagement, interaction and investment.

Ebola virus outbreak and responses has presented interesting local & geopolitical impacts and rightly place the burden of insight and positive action for future direction on African leaders and elites. So far they are on the right track.

Where is Europe Heading to?

Introduction

There is a perverse spectre haunting Europe since the last few decades. A spectre of confusion, dislocation and disconnection between the political leadership and the peoples. From east to west, north to south; this flowing stream of unwanted confusion dominates and suffocates with subtlety in every sphere of human endeavour despite ‘freedom’ and ‘democracy’. This article attempts to navigate through the issues at stake especially the emerging geopolitics of weakness that is gradually taking hold on the continent of retrogression and an apparent space of exhaustion.

Open Door to Darkness

The end of cold war was greeted with anticipation in Europe especially in the Anglo world where part of the losers of the great second war substituted their meltdown for the role of new order remora.  While it was clear that United States will have a freer hand to conduct affairs in a world as its sole constituency, only united Germany become the sole geopolitical consolation. Of course some will claim that unshackling of East European countries is worth the feast, nevertheless the geostrategic goodwill that enable remained unrewarded. Even as the cold war was winding down, most of the political and economic structures of Europe have already started the rotting process.

What the so-called cold war winner remoras didn't foresee was their new imposed roles as cheerleaders and sponsors of new Washington DC conflicts.  The descending darkness of national politics created a sharp divide between the elected and the electorate in a corrosive relegation of the latter to their greatest surprise mostly for gross misreading of history. They don’t count rather the new global power elite consolidated as real winners of the neoliberal virulent economic programme beating gravity to suspend the majority to the expectation of ill-fated ‘trickle down’ effects.

After Germany then what?

Leaders of Europe turned into reverse creativity in deviating from addressing the critical question of the new century; what is the new role of Europe in the post-cold war world? For many leaders of Europe the period seems to align with an ‘end of history’ for a new ‘beginning of history’. The question definitely is loaded as it doesn't in itself suggest independence or subservience to United States. One can only assume that from legacy information and geopolitical capacity, with the demise of USSR, Europe naturally becomes a client continent.

While this stage of geopolitical evolution is not totally pessimistic, future stages cannot be anticipated from current European leaders. Even the Mitterrand-Kohl ticket only provided an inward framework that never challenged US supremacy. Consolidation of Berlin-Paris axis simply sustained a repeat of events at the Hall of Mirrors 1871. Europe is insecure and insular to consolidate power under a common framework and is intellectually deflective to pursue the world as her space of dominance.  The wisdom of elongation of NATO’s relevance versus WARSAW Pact demise makes sense in this dimension, as a tool of military dominance over Europe. This tool can be unleashed domestically to put European house in check in fashion similar to Operation Gladio.

In retrospect it becomes very clear that the highest geopolitical achievement of Europe is the violent balkanisation of Yugoslavia with Berlin in the diplomatic ‘lead’ and United States making the ‘weaponistan’ killing. Deutschland uber alles! Curiously, the main driver of this calculation was Washington DC’s geostrategic extension of an old elite hatred of and curtailing Russian (cultural) sphere of influence. Yugoslavia never posed a threat to Europe.

Falling Over Nonsense

While Europe became scared of the world basking in its ‘successes’ it became apparently clear that political, economic and military consolidation under United States allows for extension of neoliberal agenda, global security via ‘war on terrorism’ and sustenance of convention, tactical and strategic wars machines/hardware of which US is the sole supplier. In the name of winning the cold war, Washington DC cleverly cornered the market and with the threat of raw hard power got the leaders to acquiesce to her initiative. One way of getting European capitals to confirm is the threat of closing their exports to the rich North American market.

An important evidence of European total capture is the French re-joining of NATO Command under President Nicolas Sarkozy. That singular geopolitical suicidal act closed any gap of difference in the European space as far as US is concerned.  By formally linking their geopolitical future with Washington DC, the subservience phase becomes completed and the case for the west finally closed.

The haemorrhage of leadership in Europe led by Berlin opens another chapter economically with uncontrollable descent in standard of living and deceleration of income across the board except for the elite. The economic space barely makes 1% annual growth rate for many years with entire countries imploding such as Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain and Ireland with other unnamed basket cases. In their miserable states and intransigence of Berlin, the perceived powerhouse, their important assets have become welcome chips for Beijing and other large sovereign wealth funds.  The recent past collapse of the French government attributed to erstwhile ministers’ squabble on the merits of austerity measure/neoliberal agenda is significant. Europe is now a space of austerity measures suffocating majority for the benefit of the minority.

These funds and their handlers have learnt how to pick up items of investment like airports, seaports, railways and other fixed asset on the cheap with huge multiplier profits. This is the same structural adjustment programme World Bank/IMF imposed on developing countries few decades ago. Now we wait for the capital flight from Europe to investor countries. In any case these sovereign wealth funds have becomes new geopolitical actors holding Europe at the stake and milking their many strategic assets for many years to come.

Now comes the Bear

One would have expected Europe to welcome and appreciate Europe that extends to the Urals powerful or powerless. The strategic interest of countries and the continent should have been a higher leverage for constructing an improved relationship with Moscow. On the contrary weak Europe invested their asset and resources to sabotage their core interest even when huge economic opportunities are at stake especially for those countries in the doldrums.

By placing sanction on Moscow, the thesis of subservience is confirmed; the leadership crisis in Europe is certified especially in Berlin and Europe as a space of retrogression is unequivocally entrenched. Geopolitically and geoeconomically, Europe as a space of economic downturn is clarified. If the planet is spread out on a flat 2 dimensional map, other continents and regions will display rises in annual economic growth (height) of various proportion, while Europe will surely be a large depression as a promontory of Asia.

In the latest round of sanction against Moscow, Europe was the loser before its enactment.  Even Egypt and South American countries are potential beneficiaries of the huge Russian market. When states or continent groups design geopolitical policies in contrary to the spirit of their strategic interest, then their raison d’etre has ceased to exist. Unexamined leadership is not worthy of existence.

Investment in Perpetual Conflict (Weaponistan) – Epitome of Sustainable Development

Introduction

Post World War 2 security and stability around the world provides curious spatial patterns, relationships and trends. Despite the natural disposition to take each new conflict as it emerged rather than on its merit (which is mostly absent), deeper appreciation of each conflict is the avoidance of isolating them. By collating all the conflicts over longer periods of time in specific locations, better understanding of these conflicts will become clearer in terms of their timing, specific theatre, mineral/political resource at stake, motives, players, instigators, weapons suppliers and funders. Full capture of these variables over time and space allows for wider scope for informed & contextual analysis disparate from mantra of the usual suspects who are rather unbeknown investors in Weaponistan.

Weaponistan

It is not a place rather an existing context and phenomenon of the times with regard to weapons and conflicts. Weaponistan is associated with interlocking, networked & powerful individual geopolitical hierarchical relationships connecting political, media, economic, infrastructure, weapon production, mineral extraction, logistics interests etc.  These are sections of crème de la crème of the global power elite with no fixation for countries but concentrate on specific interest at a given period. Based on an overriding ‘grand strategy’ of the hegemonic power currently emanating from Washington DC, these are investors in perpetual conflict as a sustainable development.  By leveraging the instruments and assets of the state, state interest in conflated with narrow elite interest towards extraction and accumulation of targeted interest accelerated by violence perpetrated by investment in a cycle of perpetual conflict.

USSR Exit

The dynamic of conflicts in the cold war hung on the premise that since both nuclear armed superpowers cannot confront each other in detente, then the whole world becomes open space of conflict investment. There were few conflicts where both superpowers were on the same side which was an exception. An example is the 1967 – 1970 Nigeria-Biafra War. In most cases, all conflicts were proxy battles wedged between Moscow and Washington DC, both sides supplying killing equipments and killing advisers in a sustainable development akin to Murder Incorporated a la Bruce Springsteen.

The 1991 demise of USSR changed the geopolitical calculus that left United States only standing, even though there is no evidence Washington DC defeated Moscow as the myopic, triumphalist & hubristic mantra goes. As this change sank in with parallel expectation that post WW2 peace will finally reign, no such thing happened. Rather conflicts were spatial reconfigured, displaced and reinforced. Weaponistan did not shrink rather its sales boosted as the movers and shakers sought for higher profits around the world mostly for states seeking her defensive posture.

Under Washington DC Watch

Since US hegemony hubristically consolidated without inhibition, rather with renewed vigour against any suggestion of challenge Washington DC moved to expand its military asset including military bases and associated hardware to provide conditions for new conflicts in Africa, Middle East and Asia. Interestingly South America finally escaped from the clutches of perpetual (ideological) conflicts leaving only Colombia to hold the can of worms with FARC. 

Defence budget of South American countries have increased with purchases of US hardware mostly except Venezuela where Commandante Hugo Chavez revolutionised her military doctrine, her defensive capability and sourced new suppliers of hardware.  By shifting attention to Moscow as her major supplier, Caracas invested huge resources to purchase ready materiel, training and capabilities to prevent supply hostage of erstwhile suppliers. Weaponistan grew fatter! As the new mission against ‘terrorism’ took shape, Weaponistan took a shine in permitting United States to open 2 new war fronts in quick succession in Afghanistan and Iraq. 

These conflicts regardless of their origins have only one beneficiary, Weaponistan. With trillions of dollars creamed off huge treasury bonds and trades in dollar as global reserve currency, expensive weapons were purchased and deployed to fight ‘terrorism’ which in the process created new dimension of the same conflict or new conflicts from the old theatres. By so doing these conflicts are easily manipulated to sustain for long periods in the same old name of ‘war against terrorism’.  War for the sake of war!

When the so-called ‘terrorists’ are compared with sophisticated and advanced US military machine, the odds are very high in favour of the latter. However if these conflicts are subjected to forensic analyses it becomes clear that these are not conflicts where clear victory or completion is the objective. The grand strategy is perpetual conflicts which stakeholders of Weaponistan perceive as sustainable development. 

The interlocking relationships between political animals and captains of weapon industry are very dense that instruments and other resources of the state are commandeered in disguise to sustain unsubstantiated threats. 

Iraqi conflicts has recycled in the last decade from 1991 kicking Iraqis out of Kuwait, to protecting the Kurds in the mountains with Non-Fly Zones, 2003 seeking exit of Sadaam Hussein, to giving Iraqis ‘democracy’ & ‘freedom’, to current balkanising of Iraq with no clear strategic follow-up plan. Fast forward to destabilisation of Syria and 'unveiling' of ISIS whose ‘caliphate’ is coterminous to areas with huge crude oil deposit and struggle to clarify the fate of Iraqi Kurdistan. 

Why should ISIS or their handlers seek Baghdad with such rich deposits at hand? Who is ISIS master/handler? Just a division of Weaponistan deployed to distract in a maze of obvious contradiction! Forget about the religious scarce, a detritus of deliberate misinformation!  So Weaponistan is unperturbed. US is ‘back’ to Iraq with new advanced weapons which they refused to supply to Baghdad despite receiving payment. Mistakes are not deliberately made more than once without strategic initiative or purpose.

The cauldron of Middle East continues to boil under US watch whether it is Israeli attack on Gaza, destabilisation of Syria, maintenance of open border & easy movement of assets between Arabstan and Afghanistan. Middle East is sustained as the main theatre of the biggest weapon space and market for over 5 decades. Middle East is now sure bet of serious conflict every 3 years, huge arms purchase every 5 years and daily news of conflicts as a 'therapy' a la Anglo media. 

One may even go as far as to suggest that Middle East is a metageographical metaphor dedicated to conflict and uncertainty. This case is unfolding as an unstoppable reconfiguration of geopolitical reality in the metageography sweeping round with some player struggling to understand, contain or take advantage of it.  By and large the metageography has failed as a political project as it has become a huge island of instability where apparent conflict winners seem to be real isolated losers despite heavy investment in the best Weaponistan has to offer. It equally carries the potential of finally humbling United States as a superpower. Suggest that it maybe US graveyard!

US AFRICOM in bloom

As USSR gradually wound down under the double toxic doses of perestroika and glasnost, tectonic changes started emerging across Africa.  With the last geopolitical duel finally shifting against US in the 1988 Battle of Quito Cuanavale Angola showing the hand writing on the wall for Apartheid South Africa. It was only time before Zaire’s Mobutu had his last smile. Of course Chinese economic onslaught continues profitably and unprotected, Africa was obviously open, unprotected and attractive in her rich geology.

As a contested continental territory despite deliberate distraction in the Middle East & Afghanistan, US did not stomach challenge in a distant backyard.  By creating US AFRICOM, an instrument of recolonisation of Africa by force of arms was deployed initially sleeping in Germany, another conquered space in the heart of Europe. Time will open up for real action with wider spatial implications especially in those real estates with richer geologies and Chinese investments.  Despite Nelson Mandela’s frothing at the mouth, he betrayed his people in his 'evening' Damascene neoliberal conversion.

Earlier Djibouti in the eastern Horn was opened up as a military base for ‘war against terrorism’ where drones take off and land. Prior to that 1993-1995 Somalia’s drubbing of the sole superpower brought it a pyrrhic victory that made it ungovernable. Somalia is not a waste land, her geology and continental shelves paint a different story. Weaponistan knows it very well. Hence the many East African countries pretending to do peace-keeping while seeking for exploration concessions!

The processes that unleashed Rwandan genocide have converged into state building, clientism and export of destabilisation to former Zaire (DRC) with over 6 million murdered while its rich mineral resources are looted. Limb-cutting Belgian Emperor Leopold didn't that foresee he’ll be bested in his blood-letting game even by African sons farther east in a geopolitical high risk game. Even by armies without states!

In 2011 the sole obstructer of US AFRICOM had his country decimated and dismantled, with it the last figment of Africa independence went in his murder. Now Libya’s presence is defined by a struggle of complexity and existential inconclusion.  Weaponistan ensured normality of violence to vapourise peoples of this glorious land. China and Russia investment got lost with no compensation as Africans were murdered without dignity. No democracy, no freedom and no peoples to reap the promised benefits; only blood, tears and death remain in abundance. Libya's oil is gone by stealth.

Mali in time followed as the usual suspects descend on the territory with the usual excuse targeting sands, inselbergs and isolated habitat. Failing France pretend to take the lead when it can no longer justify its erstwhile role as a European power in European theatre. Bamako is now ‘humanitarian’ heaven with credible humanity as Weaponistan devises means to control her rich gold veins among other rich mineral deposits. 

Finally the giant of Africa that refused to fly gave up her wings. Fluctuating between conflict investments, Weaponisation recently used Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND) to extract tribute and ‘settlement’ from Abuja and then disappeared. In its place, Boko Haram rose to prominence and is riding towards becoming the 37^th state of Nigeria with increasing capturing & retention of territories. Nigeria’s defence ministry’s part of Weaponistan has failed to deliver despite huge budgets which may have been lost in translation. 

Conclusion

As Iraq is showing clearly, Weaponistan has an investment cycle with potential to sustain itself so far purchase and utility is available. This can be referred to demand with purpose. Weapons can be purchased for either offensive or defensive requirements. Since the end of USSR, conflicts have remained sustained in Middle East, spatially displaced in various locations in Africa and lately taken hold in Afghanistan. These conflicts and sparks of instability leave a trail of events, action and resources only attributed to the complex activities of Weaponistan mostly under the imprimatur of the sole superpower, United States.

US – Africa Summit: Last Step Of An Ill-fated Dance of Pretence

US - Africa Realism. Source: BBC

Introduction

The recent news of a summit between US President and African Heads of governments/states to discuss trade, economy and other matters of importance is awkward. This article attempts to review the motives of the summit, including the timing and the performance of African-Americans as part of US institutions towards Africa in the last decade.

Geopolitics

The timing of the news and event hit the headlines in part as distraction to US lack of leadership in boiling Middle East and consistent inflexibility to readapt to fast changing world.  The last few weeks have exposed the hollowness of her honest brokerage that has seen incontestable assault on Gaza on US watch. In addition, the recent pyrrhic EU sanction on Russia under Washington DC pressure is another disinformation. It is also the case that when western countries are on the ropes in global politics, they suddenly turn to Africa on a pretended charity mission to rescue their battered images for a time. Obama’s White House is simply following this ‘rule’ to the letter but African leaders and Africans are not stupid.

2^nd Best

One can only review Africa’s economic history of the last 2 decades and wonder who are the drivers, enabler and obstructers. China has taken the lead in among other things accepting that ‘something positive is in Africa’ and that ‘something good comes out of Africa’. Chinese investment in Africa is increasing and trade between China and many African countries is growing astronomically. This is accompanied by rising economic development. Despite misgivings in many quarters’ especially pro-colonialist and neoliberal colonialists, Chinese investment in the African continent is not another form of imposition or colonialism. Nature abhors a vacuum and when the ‘end of history’ swept away the last vestige of US challenge, she abandoned her erstwhile supporters like Mobutu in Africa in the usual ambivalence & hubris that Africa is a basket case.

The last decade has seen increased interaction and trade between African countries and China which naturally led to among other others things increased diplomatic engagements crowned with summits of heads of state which US is now attempting to mimic. This vehicle has allowed both parties in the African continent and Beijing to progress, fine-tune and advance policies in various areas. The increased trade and interaction has equally enabled many African states to open Yuan accounts in their central banks to facilitate trading with Beijing and vice versa. No matter how small these accounts are, their existence and use signify diminished role of US dollar.

For United States to suddenly realise the importance of Africa as a serious player in trade and economy is very rich. She simply arrived late to the party and equally confirmed her inflexibility to abandon dominance for leadership with inaccurate barbs against China. The figure above is an uncontested summary. African leadership is not stupid despite their overall negative performance as they see through Washington DC’s inconsistency, insincerity, ambivalence & diplomatic retreat on Africa.

Space of Conflict

Currently US policy on Africa is clear. African continent is a space for geopolitical confrontation for her rich mineral and water resources. To counter potential interest in Africa’s wealth even in the sphere of investment that will benefit Africans, US have deployed US African Command as a vehicle to foil such investments. Complementary to deploying few boots on the ground, US military is all around African capitals providing unwanted and counter-productive military aid/assistance as an extension of ‘war on terror’.  Military bases, listening posts and drone bases now litter Africa lying in wait for the ‘enemy’. Most of these military investments were accelerated under Obama presidency since the main opposite was brutally cut down in the murder of Col Ghaddafi.

Since 1994 the Rwandan genocide has opened vistas of opportunities on the eastern flank. With US support new regime in Kigali contributed to new genocide in the Democratic Republic of Congo while illegally exploiting the country’s mineral resources. Kampala is another collaborator in advancing US interest in the region.

If Obama where an African, the substance could have trickled down in respecting the continent by avoiding any form of rape and pillage of Mother Africa by western interest. No, his sense of history is either non-existence or too obtuse to be comprehensive. By taking the lead from behind, he unleashed violence that simply removed Ghaddafi’s Libya from the face of the earth.  It is now the ultimate destination for freedom lovers and democracy enthusiasts! If Obama knew his history he would have appreciated that Libya is more African than Arab.

The next target turn toward Egypt where Obama’s US supported the overthrow of an elected government with full-spectrum violence and bloodletting. If Obama knew his history, he would have realised that Egypt is more African than Arab. Libya and Egypt are 2 giants of Africa that are summarily dehumanised and de-Africanised just to serve ambivalence and unproductive US interest. It is interesting to watch US uncoordinated retreat from Tripoli, Libya few weeks ago after arriving with confidence of Tomahawks, Hellfires and B-52s in 2011.

No Interlocutors in African Americans

While the narrative of US can be juxtaposed with increased profile of African-Americans in the last 5 decades, one can certify that since the end of apartheid African America has receded significantly on the African scene. Since all politics is local, all US politics is ethnic. Despite the warnings of both Dr Martin Luther King Jr and Malcolm X that African-Americans cannot claim full legitimacy divorced from Africa, post-cold war US African-American politicians and political class no longer care about their origins. If anything, they are focused on becoming ethnically something else.

It is for this reason that no African politician has genuine engagement with African-American politicians and political class.  While Indian-Americans, Chinese-Americans, Irish-Americans and Israeli-American to name a few are making the most of US resources and assets for the benefits of their homelands, similar comparisons cannot be made for African-Americans. One must conclude that Africa/Africans have no interlocutors in African-Americans including President Obama.

Post-Summit Reality

Geopolitical transition is fast on the tracks with serious reconfiguration on the cards. Whichever way Africa is placed on a potentially comfortable position of playing to strength in taking advantage between the falling world and the rising world.  There is a clear choice for African capitals in choosing between dominance and leadership as well as recalibrating her aspirations in seeking solutions from the north. Evidence indicates that positive and productive solutions have become mobile and are concentrating in the South America and Asia not from a one-off catch-up summit in the north. This will be way forward in the next generation.

New Chinese High Speed Link Thai Offensive & Geopolitics

Map of Proposed HSL Thailand Network original sourced from Guardian

Introduction

The recently announced deal between Bangkok and Beijing for Chinese investment to upgrade and integrate Thailand rail system into her high speed link (HSL) is significant on many levels. Nevertheless the timing and scope of the project contains important geostrategic and geopolitical dimensions which must be understood vividly. This understanding must be articulated with openness towards the gradual reconfiguration of global economic power in the Asia and the shifting of emphasis on ongoing challenges of hegemonic imperatives.

Domestic Insertion

The deal in itself is a domestic victory for the military government in Bangkok as it reconfirms its legitimacy to the local audience especially the elite with evangelical contamination & connection to the western neoliberal actors. Nevertheless it is equally a coup de grace and assertiveness to Western partners who harbour sense of illusion for the absence of an elected government. For the most part the deal (though the details haven’t fully emerged) offers Bangkok investment benefit of Chinese funding, procurement of HSL system and transfer of HSL technology. One can only affirm brilliance of Bangkok military leaders for such geostrategic decision that equally elevates Thailand into new heights of development in the future.

It is equally important to stress that for Beijing, this is a testament of her pragmatic view of Bangkok as a pillar of stability in the region as well as a reconfirmation of her maxim of non-interference in other country’s domestic affairs.  This is a huge weight of legitimacy for Bangkok.

Chinese Western Front

Contrary to some analysts’ limited conclusions, this project potentially has important benefits for China beyond the unpacked enigma of dominance by sections of western media. Western part of China is trailing the eastern part in the economic boom and economic growth. Increasing the role of Kunming as south-eastern regional hub connected with HSL will surely elevate her profile in trade, interaction and mutual integrations between China and South East Asian countries. Strategically Kunming and the rest of western China may have the opportunity to advance their economic development channelled through greater interaction with Thailand, Laos, Malaysia and other countries in the contiguous neighbourhood.

Thailand Incorporated

For China to maximise integration and upgrading of Thai railways as a gateway to its western part, it is imperative that railway development is the first of many investments necessary for obtaining full-spectrum benefits of interaction and economic development in the long term. There is no doubt that Thailand as a whole will become an epicentre of Chinese economic diplomacy and activities with huge multi-phased investments.

Direct connection between Chiang Khong, Thailand and Luang Namtha, Laos is inevitable in order to maximise efficiencies although Ventiane may need to be assuaged (if possible) for such deal to progress. Such a deal will actually diminish in the short-term Laos apparent strong role in contributing to Beijing economic & transportation blueprint. Empirically one must appreciate Laos small population, smaller market and land-locked geography. If such a deal is clinched it means that Chinese goods & freights picked up from any southern Thai seaport will travel uninterrupted overland to China. This makes Thailand a space of security, durability and dependability. This is a geostrategic coup for Bangkok.

New seaport and railway investments on the eastern coast opposite Surat Thani in the South (avoiding the national parks) must complement cost-reduction, increased efficiency while providing fully integrated transportation system serving Chinese interest and if possible upstaging other dominant players within Thai economic space. The long term benefits to the Thai economy and population will be massive in complementing her current initiatives towards positive enhancement across the country.

Asian Pivot a la Containment

There is no doubt that for Beijing this so-called HSL diplomacy is a nuanced response to United States containment policy labelled Asian Pivot. No hegemonic power tolerates challenge, and if required military confrontation is deployed following series of ill-fated policies. It is interesting to note that the HSL project avoided Vietnam while touching small footprint of Malaysia in its southern most point before stopping in Singapore. The consideration is significant because as time goes on South China Sea may become to all intents and purposes a conflict space as part of US policies challenging Beijing’s supremacy in the region.

Beijing may have calculated this scenario and is responding proportionately. With Philippines and Vietnam leading legitimate ownership challenge of the sea (based resources in the) area and in addition to Beijing’s intransigence to amicable settlement; recent re-militarisation of Japanese Armed Forces and increasing US incursion will surely generate uncertainty for commercial sea transportation as far as Beijing is concerned. South China Sea will always be the ‘weak spot’ and underbelly for potential destabilisation of China in the short to medium terms.

With Middle East and Arab world almost eliminated from serious global geopolitical significance bar crude oil sales, Europe neutered militarily and politically & Russia satisfied with global power devoid of dominance beyond her near-abroad; United States is unconstrained despite her economic woes to discomfort Beijing closer to home.

Thai in the Pivot

One can only surmise that Bangkok is focused on sustaining her vital strategic and national interests. With interaction and diplomatic experiences with China for over a millennium, close social and cultural & economic exchanges over this period and beyond offers her tangible tools to ensure stability and survive in a potentially uncertain neighbourhood. With India on the western flank and China in the north, and US smouldering of decline as evidenced recently in her undignified retreat from Tripoli, Libya; Bangkok needs to re-calibrate new geostrategic and diplomatic tools for a nuanced navigation of the potential choppy waters of Asia in the post-cold war era. There is no doubt that as Asia turns into the new global economic epicentre and powerhouse, Thailand will surely obtain a sizeable share of the strategic pie.