Coronavirus – Lessons from Senegal and Malawi

Introduction

While the invisible enemy continues to ravage the world as its primary geography, halting and reversing the best policies and plans, there is wonder that even the most powerful in the world have been contained for a while. Considering that this is not the first global pandemic human history, it is conclusive that Europe and North America decline is formalised. The emerging picture paints positive experiences from Senegal and Malawi devoid of neo-colonial machinations.

Hollow Media

Since coronavirus advanced ruthlessly into Europe and North America with its multiple star generals lethally attacking defenceless families and communities, the resulting shock and awe is felt most by outsiders caught up in an unexpected display of weakness of the supposed most powerful and most advanced parts of the world. The shock is driven by elevated error placing democracy, free-market and questionable Christianity as the recipe for virulent accumulation and monstrous domination. History is not linear and this is an important lesson for all nations across time. There is time for everything. Empires must rise and fall for others to rise and fall. 

So the western media in sudden shame and embarrassment at the domestic collapse of their governments have consistent deflected attention by insulting and humiliate Africans. Most by-lines anticipate doom and gloom for her peoples, relishing how coronavirus will decimate, poverty will build skyscrapers as a result and development will be reversed forever. Not debt cancelation for Africa. Wishes do not translate to reality. Sadly many Africans at home and in diaspora swallow these poisons hook, line and sinker. Pity their children who may inadvertently suckle the poisons. Good comes from Africa!

Senegal

This country on the western tip of Africa has prestige and pedigree. There is no stain of questionable military intervention since her independence. Her representative governments have sustained since their first president Leopold Sedar Senghor ruled in 1960. He was a champion of Negritude. His line of succession has continued by various ruling and opposition groups hence blunting the need for imported or evangelised brand of democracy.   

When the crowned poison arrived Dakar, there was no panic rather resources were allocated to join fight. Among the measures deployed by the government of President Macky Sall is the prescription of anti-malaria chloroquine to only those who show symptoms of coronavirus. This therapy is not applied to those with full blown infection. This position was attacked viciously in France since Paris led the anti-chloroquine campaign instead of focusing energy on protecting and saving her vulnerable population. Dakar defended her position robustly including demand for Africa’s debt cancellation, Paris is too weak to press action.

Why? Since medicine and doctors have become geopolitical, a clarification is necessary. Besides anyone can offer a sad opinion including recommendation of disinfectant (orally). There is peer-reviewed science on the role of chloroquine on coronavirus. The problem is thus: Europe and North America pharmaceutical firms no longer produce chloroquine since related diseases/infections have disappeared. Besides the profit margin of production is slender. Current major producers are India, China, Brasil and other member of the Global South. Support for chloroquine mean massive cash transfer out of Europe and North America. So Senegal held her line and won. Senegal makes Africa proud!

Malawi

This is a bastion of common sense in the southern region of Africa. Another nation untainted by misplaced military usurpation. Along with Taiwan, South Korea, Sweden and Nicaragua, she legally objected to lockdown. Of course, it is expected that lockdown is an unreconstructed and uncritical universal tool for stemming coronavirus. Lilongwe advanced a contrary narrative. When the government imposed lockdown probably without emergency powers, citizens objected by lodging a court appeal. 

The government failed to make her case and her lockdown policy was suspended for constitutional interpretation. The critical point is the government’s inability to explain how the vulnerable will be protected during lockdown. At the time of writing, with the lockdown suspended, the government has responded with public health directives and cash payment to the most vulnerable. 

The message is clear. The rule of law works in Malawi, constitution is respected by Malawians and common sense is operative in the land. There is no need for foreign intervention or international humanitarian assistance. The gullible position that Africans are incapable of managing their affairs with credibility, honesty and integrity has once again fallen. Of course attention always focus on the cancerous so-called giants whose foundation are no stronger than quicksand. Malawi makes Africa proud!

Conclusion

Coronavirus outbreak is global but the patterns of infection, mortality and recovery are non-uniform in time and space. Different communities and peoples address it based on experience and unique circumstances. Geopolitics can still play but its full spectrum application is modified by domestic pressure and internal centrifugal forces within the global powers. Within this context Senegal and Malawi’s mature and legal responses can be maximised for the dignified, honourable and excellent peoples of Africa.

Coronavirus Expressions and Geopolitical Outcomes

Introduction

2019/2020 Coronavirus outbreak may become the most insightful event in the last 150 years. While it is an invisible entity with limited ability on its own to act and operate, its vectors and agents in humanity have played significant roles in its thriving enterprise. The result will take time to fully emerge considering that coronavirus is not fully understood by the so-called advanced and developed countries. Our concern is to highlight state expressions leading from history and the emerging patterns of geopolitical power distribution.

Appetiser

Coronavirus has garnered much attention for a single reason, which is the concentration of infections and mortality in the Global North. This geographical space have 3 distinct parts with a single continental isolation of North America and the contiguous continental mass stretching from Europe to Asia. These techno-economic hotspots include New York – Toronto area, European Union radiating from Berlin and the Asian conurbation nucleated from Shanghai.  These areas are all north of the Equator, apparently the container of all the great powers and emerging powers. Coronavirus is running riot in these areas and seem unstoppable in specific areas under various governments.

Uncommon Cold

The first cases of coronavirus were mistakenly reported as a type of flu or pneumonia. Only when peer-reviewed empirical analyses confirmed its specifics did it become apparent that a new kid has arrived the infection block. It has been highlighted that common cold is lethal with high mortality per annum i.e. over a spread of time, coronavirus seem different. Based on infection rate alone, the speed is almost like a rapid-fire offensive. Of course infection rate/mortality rate relationship is complex, preparedness and response initiatives play an important part towards containment and reversal. 

Triumphs

As the world gets more interconnected events in a single location have higher tendency of wider impact and reaction. However the events of the past seem to have prepared the ground the current diverse reaction of countries in advance. A trend has been on the run in the last few decades and the results appear to have been misread or misinterpreted especially by the western world. 

In 1991 USSR collapsed which opened the door wide for hubristic triumphalism in the West which refused to close. In 2001 aeroplanes flew into New York causing much casualty and led to United States pushing the envelope of military dominance through war on terrorism among others. In 2008 the neoliberal economic model driven by Washington Consensus collapsed and stood still. In 2020 coronavirus unleashed its offensive with lethal revolutionary zeal simultaneously in many countries.  

In this 30-year run reaction aggregates presented binary behaviours in the West and East. Washington DC and her remora allies in the West projected uncritical and triumphalist disposition devoid of comprehensive awareness and far-reaching amendment. The interpretation is reduced to apparent magnificence of democracy and uncontested free market economy. In the East including Russia, representation in governance is tighter with restricted market economies in place. In a sense the economies are servants of the state rather than private interests. Overall, the East has limited global military ambition considering the cost and resource intensity. 

Boom

When the crowned poison i.e. coronavirus in Latin, arrived new patterns of response emerged. Despite all the decades of war against terrorism, shows of force in counter-terrorism, various policies of alert and emergencies by various western/NATO states; only confusion reigned and later blame game. If you add democracy and open market in the mix, then effective leadership took a walk in the park. The only countries with 5-digit mortality rates are United States, United Kingdom, Spain, France and Italy. It took coronavirus to reveal the West as the bastion of failed governments. Quite a strange performance! Something is wrong with politics in these countries.

Apparently Asian countries rose to the occasion not so much that they possess much of the wealth, democracy and free market economies. Vietnam, Singapore, South Korea, Laos, Cambodia, India, Japan and China took the outbreak serious to swiftly contain and decline its threat. These governments acted with tact, effectiveness, reliability, confidence and focus. They displayed acute awareness, rapid implementation, effective monitoring and dynamic feedback mechanism. Apparently United Kingdom and Spain retorted to hand clapping and pan hitting as viable solutions. Lack of organisation, lack of protective equipment, lack of effective supply chain and lack of critical medical tools abysmally trailed the so-called advanced countries. It is a woeful performance. This is an important lesson for the Global South.

Values

It is contestable that one of the logical conclusions of western enlightenment is atheistic materialism enthroned by communist Russia/USSR. There is a stark contrast between the West and the East in terms of culture, spirituality as a viable interiority and sustainable sociological foundations. There is a gruesome assumption that Europe and North America are Christian or that they thrive based on Christian values. These geographies are no more Christian than the moon has Igbo as its official religion/theology. 

The socio-cultural foundation of these geographies have not only evolved but strongly moved away from enduring immaterial truth. Secular humanism with its offspring of materialism is the religion without a permanent altar and priest driving virulent individualism and de-communitisation.  Living focused on select tribes of elite and powerful interests who interlocked into the state. Elite is the state and the state is the elite. It is poignant that as coronavirus took its toll, organised religions in the West are silent in the various states except the isolated voice of Pope Francis ringing from Rome. In the United Kingdom, there are no calls for prayer, fasting, redemptive sacrifice and fraternal solidarity. 

In essence it became apparent that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a subtle shift allowing for its effects and programmes to seamlessly meander into Global North minus Japan conscience as the preferred way of life as prophesied by Our Blessed Mother Mary in Fatima Portugal 1917. The West has no place for the sacred, the profound and the supernatural. Of course this is not suggesting that coronavirus outbreak is a reward for de-christianisation. 

Rather it is the case that absence of solid moral or spiritual foundation allows certain weakness to thrive because the justification for timely effective action disappeared into the purse of private profit. There is an overwhelming lack of positive interiority in Europe and North America. It would have been imagined that a continent that bore the brunt of 2 global wars would have become a bastion of population protection in emergency.

The lessons and policies developed by the same advanced countries where modified and exemplified in Asia to successfully combat coronavirus to the extent that South Korea held a credible general election. In essence Asia has shown viable leadership and unquestionable authority. By so doing, they have displayed the compass for future confidence and positive outcomes. It must be testified that most Asian countries have very enduring underlying social and cultural foundations upon which colonisation added with minimal removal. 

Of course they are not majority Christians and are not averse to it, the collective worldview is not strictly materialistic. There is a dominant thread of immaterial consciousness freely accessible and unthreatened in the public space. One would have expected that post-war Japan would have shed her core traditions and cultural foundation rather they accentuated a transformation and modification of accepted foreign values to their dynamic taste over time. 

Conclusion

The clear lesson is that irreversible change has arrived on the back of coronavirus. To all intents and purposes the West’s decline is evident and factual. Apparently not so much from external attack rather from the age-old internal weakness, poverty of leadership and lack of nuanced authority. The next inevitable stage will be facing the consequences which could be a cocktail of reappraisal, recovery and revolutions.

Summitry – Scramble for Africa Sustained

Introduction

Interaction between Africa and various parts of the world is the norm since the beginning of time. However the last 200 years has brought a new pattern of interaction where Africa’s descent is highlighted as a scramble by great powers. In the post-cold war climate, the complexity of this lopsided interaction has taken the shape of domination by both the traditional North and the emerging forces in the Global South. This is the focus of this discuss.

From Berlin to Berlin

Denial of geography is the nemesis of princes. Ignorance of military technology is the path to perpetual weakness for nations. The two universal geopolitical values were clear to the new German Empire concretised by Otto von Bismarck while imposing the Treaty of Versailles in 1871. However 300 years earlier Africa has been in long cathartic reverse of fortune and domination where her most valuable resources were industrially denuded. Slavery by the West and East industrially stripped Africa of its best on the basis of her perceived weakness.

This weakness was codified by the then emerging powers at the Berlin Conference which partitioned Africa without African input in 1885. The internal geographical subdivision where fixed as the building blocks of Westphalia architecture, nation-states. Those lines or boundaries remain in effect to this day. In 1914 and 1939 respectively Berlin sought and lost her place in the sun while the blueprint of its Conference became immutable. Africa turned into dominated pizza parts for various European capitals until the heavyweights arrived later.

Cold War

Conclusion of WW2 removed the old geopolitical guards into diminution as Washington DC and Moscow contested their supremacy in Africa. It mustn’t be lost to all that the uranium oxide used in the building of the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki respectively were stolen in Congo by the Colonial Kingdom of Belgium. United States much like Soviet Union was very aware of Africa’s geostrategic primacy. Africa’s ancient basement complex rocks contain huge commercial reserves of precious metals, natural resources, fresh water and other geophysical niches. Both hegemons battled it out on the continent directly or through proxies. Africans bore all the brunt in blood and otherwise.

UK and France consoled as WW2 runners-up acted as remoras on the latitudes allowed by the US hence the fierce colonial wars in Algeria, Angola, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and etc. None of the players fought for the Africans but her domination. Africa remained weak in strategy, policy and positioning. The colonial conflicts lasted longest in spots of higher geophysical significance. A divided Africa along colonial lines and short-term initiatives failed to grasp an intergenerational imposition already taking shape waiting for reinvigoration and innovation.

Death of USSR

After 70+ years Soviet Union died without external invasion in 1991. US won the cold war and with her ascendancy became the challenged master of the world. Russia took time to reinject vigour in her geopolitical ambitions, UK and France remain fossilised while Berlin re-emerged behind a matrix of EU states. India and China cracked the shells to wiggle weak fins in a reconfiguring geopolitical waters. Even Brazil finally made a debut in a weak contrast to her super-efficient delivery in the field of soccer. Africa renamed from Organisation of African Union to African Union in a controlled baptism of neocolonisation. The future remained bleak. There is no unity of Africa and Africans rather the shots are called from outside.

Summitry

As the challenged unipolar world unfurled, US moved into self-flagellation in the Middle East while Moscow and Beijing concentrated on economic consolidation with profits rechannelled into armed forces modernisation and economic development. As the ambience of disposable income soured, gaps in supply chains forced a review of probable resources sources and markets and the lot fell on Africa. Beijing played her cards with niche in-road into Africa for a phased strategic projection buttressed on infrastructure development and market expansion. The platform for one-stop-shop is the China-Africa Summit bringing African leaders to kowtow in Beijing.

Then Japan with her advance economic profile followed suit with her own Japan-Africa summit. There is Russia-Africa summit, India-Africa summit and UK-Africa summit. In each summit a collective of African leaders most bereft of skill, vision and awareness fleet about thousands of kilometres from their capitals to rubber-stamp treaties that will chain down future generations. Most of these leaders lack viable health care facilities in their neighbourhoods.

While Brazil and France limit their influence in Lusophone and Francophone countries, it is very clear that the renewed vigour in the scramble for Africa testifies to a refined innovation in grand-strategy and geostrategic initiative. Underlying all these in the war-on-terror format is United States African Command (AFRICOM), which in summary is the template for recolonization of Africa specifically her geological and geophysical assets. The conflicts in DR Congo, Libya and the ongoing conflagration in West Africa are examples of struggles for mineral resources.

These summits are windows for legitimisation of Africa’s dominance in a shrinking world that is opening to the gradual irrelevance of Westphalia building block. Increased hierarchisation of geopolitics has enhanced the position of African state at the bottom devoid of shift in context. Africa is reduced to a single entity despite her continental prowess in a massive of monumental proportion. In these summits a new pattern of domination has emerged, a new form of elites are emerging and another round of intergenerational dependency is shaped.  

Conclusion

The summits show a cultural ambience of ascendance in the dominating capitals and a hubris testifying advancement. It is impossible to indicate how these structures could be fought if such position is decided. The only open avenue for Africans is renewed incentive to reverse the identity crisis which has diminished individual and collective awareness. This cannot be sustained by total removal of the past or concentration on past glories. By providing a nuanced account of history the place of Africans in the present, including appreciating the complexity of structures & policies plus Africans contribution to such self-degradation opens a way towards strategic regeneration to boldly hold the future from a position of strength.

Brexit – A Normal Geopolitical Realignment

Introduction

Last month was the first of  conclusive steps in United Kingdom’s exit from the multi-state continent group European Union. In a sense UK have spent the last 5 years working feverishly to overcome what seem apparently like an crisis of identity but in reality is a natural response to emerging shifts in geopolitical power. The thrust of this discuss is to draw historical contours of this response in view of wider reconfigurations, isolate what remains for the Kingdom and summarise some evident post-Brexit structures.

Europe 2

Europe has been a sustained theatre of geopolitical contests for the last 500 years. In most of these centuries, power projection is coupled with fire power finally decided in major wars where and when necessary. To say the least, Europe is a violent space and such heritage remains near the surface despite a gap of conflict in the last 70 years. When the fate of post-WW11 was decided in Yalta, the real winners where United States and Soviet Union. United Kingdom at the table was no better than France outside. Evidently both winners divided the spoils of war i.e. Europe between them with the marking west of Vistula (Poland) on the doorsteps of Elbe (West Germany). This cartographic reality sustained by mutually agreed deception known in the West as Cold War endured till 1991.

As 2^nd rate players on the western flank with full awareness of history, UK and France spearheaded a dual renewal based on remaining colonial possessions in Africa & Asia under US imprimatur and revaluation of their common European home. As Churchill was deluding with grandiose global panache of uneconomically pedigree he locked totally in Washington DC embrace, De Gaulle was clear that French hegemony was limited in the face of the ascendant United States. As a professor of history and fluent in German he fully understood his remit. Keep out the Anglo-Saxons for a while!

His grand strategy was simple. Nip future German aggression in the bud by tying her down with trade arrangements powered by Paris and Bonn (then West Germany capital). He approached Adenauer, the German chancellor and they fleshed out a phased programme for European integration starting with 6 countries. UK was not part of the 6. With the Treaty of Rome in the bag, institutionalised Europe was decided, created and progressed. It was a success. De Gaulle ensured that UK will play no part and that 'law' was effective until his death. United States had no problem with the idea and its substance after all she was the unrivalled master of Europe.

Later Day

Bearing in mind that France is a permanent UN member with huge colonial possessions, was blinded by the complexity of a stale geopolitical identity which expressed itself in her wasteful wars in Indochina and Algeria. Nevertheless the cost of wars and cost of post-war reconstruction naturally opened the door to embrace trade in a global market. UK was deftly reconfiguring her colonies with ‘peaceful’ arrangements of future neo-colonial control with an awareness that the Commonwealth market is limited.

UK cannot be successful while removed from Europe, so with the demise of De Gaulle applied for EC membership and was accepted with Ireland in 1973. It was convenient for London to play in the new field of successors between US and USSR taking advantage of the new EC geopolitical realignment to advance trade expansion, technological advancement and diplomatic maneuvers. Falkland Wars was an example where France halted weapon sales to Argentina for UK interest.

The African space was collectively manacled with the odious Africa-Caribbean-Pacific (ACP) wireframe called Lomé Convention. Simply put it specifies that ACP states are the markets while EC is the seller with limited access for ACP products in her market. This remains the case today. In a sense EC/EU arrangement suited London, Paris and Bonn/Berlin for a time. London’s status as a global financial centre became ascendant with the Thatcher regime drawing capital from the EC. The weight of UK in EC/EU mustn’t be underestimated, it was a heavyweight but this was not causing discontent at home.

Drawbridge

The collapse of the Soviet Union brought new realities to Europe and Berlin made the most of it by pragmatically restoring its sphere of influence. Starting with German reunification and advancing the collapse of Yugoslavia, it gradually stepped up the plate with its huge resources towards fuller mastery of Europe. Despite US geopolitical primacy, other developments in Russia and Asia especially Japan, China and India; opened the door to challenge the global order in various fronts.

United States found it cheaper to produce in Asia (with tax cuts) and progressed its deindustrialisation while concentrating on the niche/military/high technological footprints. Only Germany was ascending in similar path with economic growth, economic development and silent diplomacy on the world stage. EU’s advantage surged. With a new currency (Euro) constructed on the German Deutsch Mark, Germany became EU banker and lender of last resort.

With sustained less than 2% economic growth, poverty of innovation and limited industrial production, France and UK are bound to stagnate. With domestic interest rate at 0% for nearly 2 decades freezing savings out, declining wages and widening societal gaps; London was condemned to confront discontent and polarisation in its domestic politics. Failure to admit irresponsibility is equal to finding an enemy and EU fitted the bill and was baptised thus. All politics is economic! Simply put, Berlin is the rivalled master of Europe with the paraphernalia, wealth and influence.

With Trumpian US making clear its preference for an isolated hegemony devoid of remoras, UK was contained towards imposed renewal drawn the poverty of a virile political elite. So with rising Asia, consolidating Russia, buoyant EU and stirring rest of the world; UK had one way to go. The historical baggage of empire days languished in the face of modern aggressive geopolitical competitors. A test case is the recent past purchase of 5G network from Hauwei. UK lacks the technology and lack the resources to purchase costlier options from its western partners.

Final Descent

UK has never been far from Europe. It has decided the fate of many outcomes on the continent. She is a beneficiary of Westphalian geopolitical infrastructure. However the recent ascendance of Berlin is perceived as both a challenge and message. Germany was defeated in 2 horrible conflicts, and has emerged to take the hotspot two generations later without a shot. Germany is the new rivalled master of Europe, of course US is the security chief.

As UK returns to her place the chalky islands across the channel, it is important to stress that she is not a loser in the real sense as states are not condemned to remain ad infinitum in alliances. Alliances are parallel envelopes for short-term and medium-term expressions of grand strategy. London remains a permanent member of the UN with veto power, it possess nuclear arsenals, has limited armed force in terms extra-territorial projection/deployment ability and sustains a working economy. Her physical boundary is limited to North Atlantic waters and Northern Ireland on land. It wasn’t so in 1920.

Her global influence continues to weld through perception of its values, identities and image. One example is the recent past UK-Africa summit where African heads of state huddled together in London raptly focused on a dishevelled and inaudible prime minister. So the strong do what they can, the weak suffer what they must.

UK remains one of the great powers in or out of the EU. Still a premier European state!

Amotekun – The Fresh Lion in Nigeria’s Regional Geopolitics

Introduction

2020 has brought an early fresh wine in the almost insipid Nigeria’s political concoction. A deft move from the Western Region bears the marks of a classical geopolitical response to perceived encirclement by apparent powerful protagonists. While the move is fresh and interesting, it invites the strongest insight into its structures and processes driving it.

History 2.0

To understand this view it is better to transcend the 36-states structure and settle on the pre-1966 regional arrangement for improved clarity. Look at the history books and maps again as they make sense. The pre-1914 map of Nigeria consists of Fulani Empire above Niger-Benue rivers and the nations south of the rivers. This is critical for under-50s.

It is important to stress what many hollow analysts refuse to admit as a fact. Nigeria is a multinational state which is uncertain, unstable and unreliable since it emerged from the womb of its designer. One can safely conclude that most data over time show that Nigeria’s objective is the paralysis of its nations bar a few favoured ones by violent means. Nigeria has never appreciated internal cohesion or the admission of the primacy of her nations as the building blocks towards the emergence of a Nigerian nation.

Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the first Premier of the Western Region,  laid it bare when he referred to the Nigerian as a mere geographical expression. Considering this nuanced geostrategic bluster buttressed on exclusive ethnic nationalism, Nigeria with all her human and natural resources became a rich source of ready exploitable wealth as long as it lasted. Other regions were the competitors.

Mindful of the cartographic manna that fell from geopolitical heaven with the creation of Mid-Western Region/Bendel State in 1963, the Yoruba nation consolidated into a favourable space for unassailable implementation of a calculated ethnic geopolitical agenda a la Awolowo. This was a credible and realist approach to stem the flow of idealistic constructions of power in a space devoid of clear purpose and an effective driver.

The consistency of one nation with one language, one culture and one dominant collective experience set the stage for rolling out a grand strategy by a grand master. Western Region shares an international land border with Benin Republic. Geography doesn’t lie!

For a man who retorted years later that 24 hours is sufficient in the highest office, his best opportunity arrived during Nigeria-Biafra War when the intellectually denuded counter-coup plotters offered Chief Awolowo the ‘presidency’ and the rest is history. Even Are Afe Babalola has said it on record that Nigeria-Biafra War was fought with funds from the Western Region, certainly an investment with perpetual dividend regardless of who is in charge of Lagos/Abuja with untold consequences to the other ethnic nations. 

The designs of Chief Awolowo were given legal imprimatur of the Nigerian State hence the regional advantage of an exclusive maritime area in the south feeding the landlocked hinterland. This remained effective regardless of who is the master of Lagos/Abuja. East of the Niger up to the 8^th parallel was condemned to waiting for time until the final excision of its rich maritime asset (Bakassi Peninsula) to Cameroun as negotiated under Chief Awolowo. This was the greatest geopolitical error that was only accounted for by the genetic instability of a state. Still Chief Awolowo deserve the utmost respect.

Next Move

The potency of Chief Awolowo’s grand strategy continued to flow with unmatched energy as the comfort of Western Region security declines in the festering Nigeria. Suffice to admit that the busiest seaport and airport is in this Region, it has the biggest commercial space and the highest concentration of physical development and infrastructure. Free education, free medical care, most universities/teaching hospitals, densest macadamised road network, busiest international airport, busiest seaport, high proportion of federal appointments and etc are some of the benefits. Western Region remains the biggest beneficiary of Nigeria. On this merit fittingly rest the magnanimous reference of Chief Obafemi Awolowo as the ‘best president Nigeria never had’ by the Head of State of ex- Biafra.

With such benefits, the post-1999 civilian rule gradually opened new spaces for contest, winning and losing that has condemned most players with poverty of vision and ignorance of purpose. The born-to-rule in the Northern Region may not have contemplated an impending challenge. The Western Region was not untouched by the machinations, alliances and reconfigurations as demanded by collective strategic interest. Huge changes were coming despite misleading appearances.

Lion Paws

2020 came with a flash of rejuvenation of intellectual advancement with the release of the lion, Amotekun in Yoruba. Amotekun is the regional security architecture launched collectively by all state governors in the Western Region. This geopolitical posture seem to have caught the Northern Regional political elite by surprise. The freshness of the idea is neither toxic nor is it original considering various earlier cheap alternatives designed for a piece of Nigeria’s cake.

Moving beyond its ethnic national flavour, it became clear that they have geographical consistency, concentration of infrastructure, massive commercial advantage and geopolitical disposition. For the first time Nigeria i.e. the deep state, took notice and panicked. This is most visible in the Northern Region despite the fact that Western Region is the most pro-Nigeria. Eastern Nigeria have other fish to fry.

What is attractive is the solidarity of governors in the region towards addressing a common interest with a common voice. While evidence suggests that the strategic initiative may be currently lacking, no sane mind across the Nigeria should deny its geopolitical potency. The obvious fact of the design is its confederal aroma and intellectual descendancy from the Aburi Declaration. Lagos/Abuja have vehemently continued on the path of security centralisation which has increased militarisation and regimentation of the society. In a sense Nigeria has become a densely militarised civil space.

Resistance to security apparatus decentralisation by the centre is vicious and potent. Centralisation of security apparatus ensures the consolidation of the deep state by the powerful elite who are the state. Amotekun lays bare the nonsense that governors are the highest security offers in their territories. Governors’ are legally inferior to commissioners of police in their respective states. Centralised police has the centre as its sole line manager. Governors cannot remove police checks near their governor’s residences.

Considering that all indicators of advancement and growth of Nigeria are negative offers a place for Amotekun to be rightful appraised. The arguments of insecurity is consistent across the territory and few ethnic nations are devoid of this existential concern. To deny that Nigeria is a serious security concern is immoral and inhuman. On this note Amotekun is justified as an idea, a hypothesis and a construct in reality; without dismissing its geopolitical potential.

Conclusion

Amotekun is an unclear but welcome development. It has arrived to remind regional elites and power brokers that power cannot be contained at least as an idea. Nigeria is very weak and has little traction among most capitals and chanceries of the world. Her internal structures and processes have sustained waste, corruption and illegality. Therefore uncertain regional dynamics cannot be dismissed. One thing is very clear from the recent geopolitical trend, all powers great and small are exhausted from the inside rather than from outside as the conditions favouring external intrusion are internally constructed. It is unclear whether Amotekun is a call for compatriots to arise or to hail the state. It is very early but certainly time will tell.

Benue State ‘War’ – A Geopolitical Perspective

Introduction

Benue State has been embroiled in a bitter conflict in the last year which has continued to unleash huge losses in lives and property across its perimeter. This land is the home of Tiv and Idoma nations respectively for thousands of years.  As part of a sacred geography leading from the 8^o North (Makurdi) southwards and east of the Niger, it forms part of a unique consistent reality that deserves a better treatment considering its place in the wider leaking geopolitical umbrella i.e. Nigeria.

Definitions

Geopolitics is not just the interplay between geography and politics, it goes beyond mere references to political processes imported under duress to satisfy opportunistic elite and gullible populations. Gertjan Dijink referred to geopolitics as the assessment of geographic conditions underlying either the power (security) of a particular state or the balance of power in the global configuration of continents and oceans. Those who ignore geography do so at their peril. The point is power, the struggle for power which no one gives up without a fight.

On our subject, it is easy to modify the reality in territorial reconfigurations with Nigerian State and the implications and motivations behind such changes. Benue State or the territory has a spatial history in the process of Tiv/Idoma Nations → Southern Nigeria → Northern Region → Benue – Plateau State – Benue State. Sections of its territory moved between Nigeria and Cameroun before 1960. Nevertheless southern Nigeria from 8^o North formed a consistent geopolitical entity sheltered more than 75% by maritime envelope against the opposite looming continental/inland/hinterland reality.

In a geopolitical reality conditions of viability and consistent security are driven by centripetal forces while instability, insecurity, disunity and non-cooperation are dominated by centrifugal forces. Where centrifugal forces dominate, the leaders are mostly pretenders and mercenaries who oversee ambitious and questionable geostrategic policies often ignored by populations over time. Centrifugal forces is the term adopted for driver of Nigeria’s deformity & injustice.

Evolving Positions & Assignments

Given the spatio-temporal impositions on the Tiv/Idoma nations since Nigeria came into existence, it is fair to conclude that their location, unique characters and capabilities counted against them for any geopolitical mind. In addition their leaders are simple mercenaries till the present. The British exploited these variables by shoving them from South to North locking them down to an intergenerational spatial lockdown as a minority. Centrifugal forces placed her territory in a stand-by mode where it is dominated by fear although given to feigned value and substance. Of course Joseph Tarka played along! Considering the time these nations experienced wider global interaction to the present, her economic development is abysmal.

As Nigeria took her place in the wider African Shatterbelt area, a bastion of instability in the compression zone due to consistent internal disequilibrum; Tiv/Idoma nation where assigned undertaker roles. As Nigeria exploded naturally post-independence, they were mobilised to defend the state and contributed most in the machine that industrially mowed down their immediate southern neighbours 1967 – 1970. Unity of bipolar world played its part at the time.

With a fancy name of Bread Basket in the post Nigeria-Biafra War era; the anticipated reform, revitalisation and innovation of the space as the unique strategic food producer of the world never coughed. Rather the likes of the committee chairman accepted to bury Abandoned Property with more questions than answers in 1979. Another undertaker acting for centrifugal forces no doubt! Apparently the political realities over time continued to drift with poor physical footprint and diminishing economic uplift suggesting a waiting game. More people continued to leave than enter the Tiv/Idoma space, with limited infrastructure to sustain her potential as sustained value generator.

Harvest & Method

The return of civilian dressers to Nigeria’s power machine accelerated a new order. It is fair to state that Benue State mercenaries never sought rapprochement with their southern neighbours, record doesn’t exist of a viable understanding with the Yoruba nation while dividends of their subordinate investment to their northern neighbours remain questionable. Their clinical execution of State assignments deserves them a better deal, while centrifugal forces played for time.

When time came, a low intensity pre-emptive conflict opened up against Tiv/Idoma nations destroying, killing and maiming. Nothing is held sacred by the unknown (self-organised) aggressors but the victims are the defenceless men, women, youth and children up and down the nations. If it were a declared ‘war’, these unfortunate nations never heard the announcement. Blood is flowing unstoppable in the lands with Makurdi confused and Abuja indifferent. Media reports are measured. Yaoundé is not involved, it is totally an internal affair of Nigeria. The justice system is dazed & ill.

Tiv/Idoma elite including mercenaries and pretenders are either disinterested or shell-shocked like generals incapable of strategic vision. Their reported reminder to global powers reads frustration. Certainly Benue State is reconquered for a new assignment! Consolidation of 2^nd colonisation! Where Tiv/Idoma nations insiders in Nigeria?

Uncertain Future

One day blood flow of the innocent will stop, in the meantime the youth and able are emigrating in large numbers. Instability and insecurity has descended on the Tiv/Idoma nations for at least 2 more generations. The currency of their geopolitical allegiance is damaged beyond repair, so the new leaders in the remaining youth must come up with a new reconfiguration rather than another imposed gambit. There is power struggle for the soul of Tiv/Idoma nations, for her rich land, her natural resources and her strategic location. Who will rewrite their new history, aggressor or victim?

Conclusion

Will the winner consolidate in Benue State or rather play for time in a march to the sea? The latter is quite a geopolitical scenario easy to dismiss by basket mouths! How could a maritime culture be rapidly dismantled in the 21^st century by continental apparatchiks backed centrifugal forces? Look again at history and geopolitics for the living to hold the fort and the dead to rest in peace.

Neo-confederacy and a new Nigeria

Introduction

A new dawn is emerging on the wreckage known as Nigeria. While economic woes, policy confusion and political obstacles dominate the headlines, the underlying forces and processes are taking new forms with significant import mostly ignored by the population. This article attempts to bring together historical snapshots and emerging process of national governance that is changing power forces in the beleaguered country.

On the back of conflicts

A musician once waxed that Ghanaians appreciated Nkrumah only when he died. Human memory is limited on every scale even in digital era and mass publications. The currency of political events in Nigeria has forced citizens to recall the greatness of the previous administration. One of the masterstrokes of Dr Goodluck Jonathan’s administration was realising that no army can fight in more than a theatre simultaneously. Among other things he contained the insurrection in the South-South to extract room to engage seriously with the onslaught in the North East. Moreover South-South holds most of the recoverable crude oil reserves. It paid off but the dividend wasn’t obvious at the time.

General of all conflicts

The new administration wasted no time to unleash different battles on various fronts simultaneously. Evidence of feasibility studies, cost-benefit analysis and scenario analysis of these escalations are hard to find. This resulted in continued offensive in the North East, renewed conflict in South-South and in corruption-land. North East conflict though with less strategic impetus is moving towards ‘frozen’ status, corruption war is bogged down while South-South is reconfiguring the country. Given that South-South conflict is long-running and crude oil is at the centre, the new administration seems to have overplayed its hand with old-school mentality of One-Nigeria by any means necessary. 

Money is power

When the new administration took office, South-South was calmer but tense. The national amnesty was running toward expiration/renewal. Abuja kept all in suspense on strategy and potential moves. Observers expected anything given precedence despite many battle fronts already in active mode. Considering the strategic value of South-South, sagging national revenue and malfeasance in the economy; a better approach would have ensued. 

Abuja refused to read tea leaves properly and joined battle with South-South armed groups. The first law of conflict which Napoleon understood is that war cannot be advanced without a buoyant economy. In addition the armed forces is demoralised, have depleted arsenal and restricted supplies. On the contrary, the armed groups are mobile, savvy and sophisticated. They are armed with advanced weapons and other technological gadgets in addition to local intelligence on oil assets and installations locations. 

Battle of Tactics vs Strategy

While limited resources is spent by the state on moving men, equipments and weapons of the armed forces from various locations to the theatre; the armed group played for time in their home turf. With local advantage as the armed forces engaged, the armed groups knocked out few critical oil installations, ground crude oil export and froze the national economy. Without crude oil export money into government coffers is reduced. Each day millions of naira is lost for nearly a year and government cannot posture out as propaganda has already diminished the armed groups. The government has been forced by tough economic barometer and weak strategic position to confront reality. Either Abuja climbs down, safe face and negotiate or the rot continues indefinitely. The country boils on.

Reconfigurations to new Nigeria

South-South armed groups and their political interlocutors have scored a strategic victory in redefining the role of non-state actors and extra-federal political forces to shape the country. They are gradually proving that the future of Nigeria lies not at the centre rather in the outliers. Power is shifting from other locations to South-South for real. One of the reasons for this outcome is the long dismissal of their grievances as distraction by the centre. Now it is becoming clear that Nigeria’s future lies in the South-South. They have the armed group, crude oil, the human resources and the technological assets to pursue their strategic design for space within Nigeria. How long they will last is open, they have contradictions.

Historically recollections can confirm advancement of advantage over colonial distortions, Biafra, Ogoni eruptions and MEND skirmishes. Once again Aburi Declaration comes to the fore. Memories of Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu bubbles up as he smiles in his grave! Resource control by real resource owner is inevitable. Confederation is emerging without the name and this political reality is difficult to dismiss. So far crude oil remains the main economic lifeline of Nigeria the emerging realignment cannot be erased, South-South has come of age to stay as a major player. They have the means to control access, supply and delivery of crude oil in real time. While zero-sum game is not an option, what is not also an option is total elimination of the experience by force. So negotiation table is the only game in town. Power is no longer in Abuja, Sokoto or Kaduna; it is in South-South.  The peoples are watching, the nations maybe itching!

Geopolitical Baggage

One of the most unfortunate consensus is the diplomatic coldness of geopolitical powers on Abuja. Despite perceived openness, Washington DC has maintained a strategic distance. She focused on recovering if possible her Middle East credentials with Ankara’s revived strategic autonomy on the back of the recent past coup attempt. In addition the TIPP trade deal which should have secured Asian pivot is unravelling with Vietnam cooling down and Philippines boldly asserting that Beijing has come of age. Russia is unconcerned with African file confirming that Moscow (Bolshevik or not) doesn’t ‘want a hand in the African sun’.  Following Brexit as General De Gaulle expected, United Kingdom is finally settling down to her real post-colonial small size while EU continues with ill-fated attempt to mix ‘clay with iron’.

Conclusion

Reconfiguration of Nigeria is unfolding to a new level. Unexpected convergence of forces has rubbished old template of power. Ethnic politics is potent and South-South is pointing out the contours of confederal accommodation with strategic economic and political implications. The centre may not hold as it was known for too long. Many may not notice for a longer time either.