Benue State ‘War’ – A Geopolitical Perspective

Introduction

Benue State has been embroiled in a bitter conflict in the last year which has continued to unleash huge losses in lives and property across its perimeter. This land is the home of Tiv and Idoma nations respectively for thousands of years.  As part of a sacred geography leading from the 8^o North (Makurdi) southwards and east of the Niger, it forms part of a unique consistent reality that deserves a better treatment considering its place in the wider leaking geopolitical umbrella i.e. Nigeria.

Definitions

Geopolitics is not just the interplay between geography and politics, it goes beyond mere references to political processes imported under duress to satisfy opportunistic elite and gullible populations. Gertjan Dijink referred to geopolitics as the assessment of geographic conditions underlying either the power (security) of a particular state or the balance of power in the global configuration of continents and oceans. Those who ignore geography do so at their peril. The point is power, the struggle for power which no one gives up without a fight.

On our subject, it is easy to modify the reality in territorial reconfigurations with Nigerian State and the implications and motivations behind such changes. Benue State or the territory has a spatial history in the process of Tiv/Idoma Nations → Southern Nigeria → Northern Region → Benue – Plateau State – Benue State. Sections of its territory moved between Nigeria and Cameroun before 1960. Nevertheless southern Nigeria from 8^o North formed a consistent geopolitical entity sheltered more than 75% by maritime envelope against the opposite looming continental/inland/hinterland reality.

In a geopolitical reality conditions of viability and consistent security are driven by centripetal forces while instability, insecurity, disunity and non-cooperation are dominated by centrifugal forces. Where centrifugal forces dominate, the leaders are mostly pretenders and mercenaries who oversee ambitious and questionable geostrategic policies often ignored by populations over time. Centrifugal forces is the term adopted for driver of Nigeria’s deformity & injustice.

Evolving Positions & Assignments

Given the spatio-temporal impositions on the Tiv/Idoma nations since Nigeria came into existence, it is fair to conclude that their location, unique characters and capabilities counted against them for any geopolitical mind. In addition their leaders are simple mercenaries till the present. The British exploited these variables by shoving them from South to North locking them down to an intergenerational spatial lockdown as a minority. Centrifugal forces placed her territory in a stand-by mode where it is dominated by fear although given to feigned value and substance. Of course Joseph Tarka played along! Considering the time these nations experienced wider global interaction to the present, her economic development is abysmal.

As Nigeria took her place in the wider African Shatterbelt area, a bastion of instability in the compression zone due to consistent internal disequilibrum; Tiv/Idoma nation where assigned undertaker roles. As Nigeria exploded naturally post-independence, they were mobilised to defend the state and contributed most in the machine that industrially mowed down their immediate southern neighbours 1967 – 1970. Unity of bipolar world played its part at the time.

With a fancy name of Bread Basket in the post Nigeria-Biafra War era; the anticipated reform, revitalisation and innovation of the space as the unique strategic food producer of the world never coughed. Rather the likes of the committee chairman accepted to bury Abandoned Property with more questions than answers in 1979. Another undertaker acting for centrifugal forces no doubt! Apparently the political realities over time continued to drift with poor physical footprint and diminishing economic uplift suggesting a waiting game. More people continued to leave than enter the Tiv/Idoma space, with limited infrastructure to sustain her potential as sustained value generator.

Harvest & Method

The return of civilian dressers to Nigeria’s power machine accelerated a new order. It is fair to state that Benue State mercenaries never sought rapprochement with their southern neighbours, record doesn’t exist of a viable understanding with the Yoruba nation while dividends of their subordinate investment to their northern neighbours remain questionable. Their clinical execution of State assignments deserves them a better deal, while centrifugal forces played for time.

When time came, a low intensity pre-emptive conflict opened up against Tiv/Idoma nations destroying, killing and maiming. Nothing is held sacred by the unknown (self-organised) aggressors but the victims are the defenceless men, women, youth and children up and down the nations. If it were a declared ‘war’, these unfortunate nations never heard the announcement. Blood is flowing unstoppable in the lands with Makurdi confused and Abuja indifferent. Media reports are measured. Yaoundé is not involved, it is totally an internal affair of Nigeria. The justice system is dazed & ill.

Tiv/Idoma elite including mercenaries and pretenders are either disinterested or shell-shocked like generals incapable of strategic vision. Their reported reminder to global powers reads frustration. Certainly Benue State is reconquered for a new assignment! Consolidation of 2^nd colonisation! Where Tiv/Idoma nations insiders in Nigeria?

Uncertain Future

One day blood flow of the innocent will stop, in the meantime the youth and able are emigrating in large numbers. Instability and insecurity has descended on the Tiv/Idoma nations for at least 2 more generations. The currency of their geopolitical allegiance is damaged beyond repair, so the new leaders in the remaining youth must come up with a new reconfiguration rather than another imposed gambit. There is power struggle for the soul of Tiv/Idoma nations, for her rich land, her natural resources and her strategic location. Who will rewrite their new history, aggressor or victim?

Conclusion

Will the winner consolidate in Benue State or rather play for time in a march to the sea? The latter is quite a geopolitical scenario easy to dismiss by basket mouths! How could a maritime culture be rapidly dismantled in the 21^st century by continental apparatchiks backed centrifugal forces? Look again at history and geopolitics for the living to hold the fort and the dead to rest in peace.

Neo-confederacy and a new Nigeria

Introduction

A new dawn is emerging on the wreckage known as Nigeria. While economic woes, policy confusion and political obstacles dominate the headlines, the underlying forces and processes are taking new forms with significant import mostly ignored by the population. This article attempts to bring together historical snapshots and emerging process of national governance that is changing power forces in the beleaguered country.

On the back of conflicts

A musician once waxed that Ghanaians appreciated Nkrumah only when he died. Human memory is limited on every scale even in digital era and mass publications. The currency of political events in Nigeria has forced citizens to recall the greatness of the previous administration. One of the masterstrokes of Dr Goodluck Jonathan’s administration was realising that no army can fight in more than a theatre simultaneously. Among other things he contained the insurrection in the South-South to extract room to engage seriously with the onslaught in the North East. Moreover South-South holds most of the recoverable crude oil reserves. It paid off but the dividend wasn’t obvious at the time.

General of all conflicts

The new administration wasted no time to unleash different battles on various fronts simultaneously. Evidence of feasibility studies, cost-benefit analysis and scenario analysis of these escalations are hard to find. This resulted in continued offensive in the North East, renewed conflict in South-South and in corruption-land. North East conflict though with less strategic impetus is moving towards ‘frozen’ status, corruption war is bogged down while South-South is reconfiguring the country. Given that South-South conflict is long-running and crude oil is at the centre, the new administration seems to have overplayed its hand with old-school mentality of One-Nigeria by any means necessary. 

Money is power

When the new administration took office, South-South was calmer but tense. The national amnesty was running toward expiration/renewal. Abuja kept all in suspense on strategy and potential moves. Observers expected anything given precedence despite many battle fronts already in active mode. Considering the strategic value of South-South, sagging national revenue and malfeasance in the economy; a better approach would have ensued. 

Abuja refused to read tea leaves properly and joined battle with South-South armed groups. The first law of conflict which Napoleon understood is that war cannot be advanced without a buoyant economy. In addition the armed forces is demoralised, have depleted arsenal and restricted supplies. On the contrary, the armed groups are mobile, savvy and sophisticated. They are armed with advanced weapons and other technological gadgets in addition to local intelligence on oil assets and installations locations. 

Battle of Tactics vs Strategy

While limited resources is spent by the state on moving men, equipments and weapons of the armed forces from various locations to the theatre; the armed group played for time in their home turf. With local advantage as the armed forces engaged, the armed groups knocked out few critical oil installations, ground crude oil export and froze the national economy. Without crude oil export money into government coffers is reduced. Each day millions of naira is lost for nearly a year and government cannot posture out as propaganda has already diminished the armed groups. The government has been forced by tough economic barometer and weak strategic position to confront reality. Either Abuja climbs down, safe face and negotiate or the rot continues indefinitely. The country boils on.

Reconfigurations to new Nigeria

South-South armed groups and their political interlocutors have scored a strategic victory in redefining the role of non-state actors and extra-federal political forces to shape the country. They are gradually proving that the future of Nigeria lies not at the centre rather in the outliers. Power is shifting from other locations to South-South for real. One of the reasons for this outcome is the long dismissal of their grievances as distraction by the centre. Now it is becoming clear that Nigeria’s future lies in the South-South. They have the armed group, crude oil, the human resources and the technological assets to pursue their strategic design for space within Nigeria. How long they will last is open, they have contradictions.

Historically recollections can confirm advancement of advantage over colonial distortions, Biafra, Ogoni eruptions and MEND skirmishes. Once again Aburi Declaration comes to the fore. Memories of Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu bubbles up as he smiles in his grave! Resource control by real resource owner is inevitable. Confederation is emerging without the name and this political reality is difficult to dismiss. So far crude oil remains the main economic lifeline of Nigeria the emerging realignment cannot be erased, South-South has come of age to stay as a major player. They have the means to control access, supply and delivery of crude oil in real time. While zero-sum game is not an option, what is not also an option is total elimination of the experience by force. So negotiation table is the only game in town. Power is no longer in Abuja, Sokoto or Kaduna; it is in South-South.  The peoples are watching, the nations maybe itching!

Geopolitical Baggage

One of the most unfortunate consensus is the diplomatic coldness of geopolitical powers on Abuja. Despite perceived openness, Washington DC has maintained a strategic distance. She focused on recovering if possible her Middle East credentials with Ankara’s revived strategic autonomy on the back of the recent past coup attempt. In addition the TIPP trade deal which should have secured Asian pivot is unravelling with Vietnam cooling down and Philippines boldly asserting that Beijing has come of age. Russia is unconcerned with African file confirming that Moscow (Bolshevik or not) doesn’t ‘want a hand in the African sun’.  Following Brexit as General De Gaulle expected, United Kingdom is finally settling down to her real post-colonial small size while EU continues with ill-fated attempt to mix ‘clay with iron’.

Conclusion

Reconfiguration of Nigeria is unfolding to a new level. Unexpected convergence of forces has rubbished old template of power. Ethnic politics is potent and South-South is pointing out the contours of confederal accommodation with strategic economic and political implications. The centre may not hold as it was known for too long. Many may not notice for a longer time either.

Summary of Infantile Conclusions of National Economy Nigeria-Speak

Introduction

All of a sudden national media is collectively pouring out of the various voices of pseudo-reason on the state of the national economy as if anything radical is taking place. Nevertheless there is an overdrive in warning about it in the similar manner elites shout on the ‘indivisibility of one Nigeria’ while all along dividing it by proxy. Now everyone with microphone is nothing short of a Nobel Laureate in Economics waxing lyrical on macro side of the sun at one time and forgetting the meat of the story all the time before and after. So what is missing? Have a ride on the short summary below.

A State devoid of State

There are 2 main cohorts in the population found within the territory called Nigeria; the silent victims-majority across all ethnic nations and the loud minority elite interlocking in a powerful network across all ethnic nations. The majority have watched national events since 1914 and concluded that watching is not a bad trait. In a twist of fate watching is appropriated as a positive variable on quality of life for this group. They diligently watch the elite eviscerate everything a state should be in the last 3 generations which only produced confusion, waste, malfeasance and death. Therefore they cannot be deceived into accepting that the economy should be robust in confusion lighted by controlled demolition of state structures. Where is the State in Nigeria?

Denial of History

One of the highest achievements of the loud minority is the elimination of history and History from national consciousness. Even before 24-hours news arrived to decapitate attention span and thinking, the dogma of ahistoricity was instituted with seamlessness that an average majority can only in silence seek his/her roots beyond the 2^nd generation. The drowning on his/her soul on technical secular education dehumanised his essence to the level of immediate sensory perception devoid of context. He/she is free to condemn those who came before without and against reason while evidence piles for consumption.

No, it is not validated by the North. No Dr Kenneth Dike, the foremost economist historian and his like count for nothing. Even as the last blocks of neoliberal edifice successfully managed by Chinese communists totters, he/she refuses to recall the wisdom of the past. If you don’t know yesterday/origin, how can tomorrow/destination be navigable? If such journey were Nigerian economy? What goes up comes down and up again. Remember Shagari administration? How much did crude oil sell under his watch? If you care check it out!

Consumption without Production (Financialisation)

First of all there is no electricity and by the way the refineries are condemned for sale. Solar energy is toy on serious development. For the past 40 years Nigeria has been selling crude oil and other unaccounted national resources, spend the income on anything money can buy including imported toothpicks. Yes, General Gowon (Syndrome) unleashed this demon that refuses to leave the hall called Nigeria. For all the noise, policy documents, implementation initiatives and prostitution for foreign investment; production is minus. 

Even money is exported to foreign banks and the other nations’ wastes are imported for show. And you are asking why the economy has tanked? Toxic waste was once imported into Nigeria with bill of lading to boot and cleared at a port near either Warri or Sapele. No, it is not CBN, independent or not whatever it means! If you don’t produce and don’t save; surely after the rain comes the sun or vice versa.

Unaccounted Accumulation not Resource Scarcity

When the current administration blamed the preceding one for all the ills and wrongs of the country, you wonder if Nigeria has been under former President since 1960. National power has changed hands between elites with and without uniform. National accountability is anathema in Nigeria, the tradition has taken root and to uproot it will take more than singing in one’s evening of life. If there was a government(s) that paid attention to economic accountability, it expired in 1966.

So crude oil can sell for any price by the way the selling price is not fixed or determined in Nigeria or by Nigerians. They can sell it in Naira which is even splendid at least there will be no temptation to print money or prop it up with another paper called US dollar. Unsold volumes remain underground for another day. Until sold crude oil receipts are audited and accounted for let every trap simply shut its dignity on current diving prices.  

Ignorance of Geopolitics

Who is Nigeria’s Foreign Minister? Until the economy improves and domestic arena takes shape!

While we wait for answer to the above question to filter in, the last few months have displayed an administration that deliberated extricates itself from real global geopolitical reconfiguration. The visit to US, attendance of G7 summit and other western diplomatic soup kitchens all point to the same door; Washington DC. There are other parts of the world and other serious players too. Unreconstructed western-centricity is disastrous in foreign policy as Malaysia showed in the 1990s.

Few warning signs were ringing. US recalibrated her position on Nigeria by stopping crude oil imports. Buyers are customers and customer is king but Abuja can only swallow likes and dislikes given her by Washington DC. In addition US under an ‘African-American’ showed real Africa policy in Libya and Egypt, and what happened to terrorism? Any lessons or do you read only democracy while others see naked power? Is Nigeria not threatened?

OPEC ceased to exist with the passing of Venezuela’s Commandante Hugo Chavez and retirement of Iran’s Dr Mahmoud Ahmedinajad. Next Saudi Arabia launched is geopolitical offensive in 2015 with overproduction phalanx and continues the policy till date. The dividend is in the crystal ball. The icing on the cake is her all-out offensive on Yemen; surely Riyadh can fight on many fronts. Any lesson for Abuja?

Lastly, we warned about potential impacts of a successful conclusion of Iran – P5+1 nuclear negotiation. There were no takers in Abuja. Tehran is singing for snatching a deal from Washington DC without paying in war blood, Havana did the same. Any lesson for Abuja or Nigerians? Crude oil price will dive into single digit before stabilising. OPEC may go, Yemeni conflict ceases and new contracting quota system subsists for crude oil price to go north.

Conclusion

Crude oil glut and price depression have their time. Many responsible countries lack crude oil and care more for crude oil exporter's revenue (legal and illegal). Nigerians, please wake up.

Nigeria Pay Salaries and Pensions (On Time and Regularly)

Introduction

The change of guard at the helm of national affairs following 2015 presidential election initially and naturally generated loads of expectations and enthusiasm for positive outcomes probably in the long rather than in the short term. As the dust of expectation settles it is becoming apparent that business as usual in the negation of basic activities of a population is consolidated. In short the regressive state of salary and pension payments has continued. This ugly practice must stop.

Confusion Incorporated

It started with promises without inside experience. Then once inside all economic problems and undiscovered information were blamed on the immediate past administration. The ongoing trend is belated broadcasting of alleged national thievery by elites (associated only with the previous administration) which is no news until a conviction is secured with time in jail to boot. In the background it took 6 months to get the national cabinet in order while experience of abuse of processes continued infinitum. Such a package of actions for an incoming administration is rich in significance.

Money Matters of the Commons

What is evident is that for a very long time probably starting from the inception of post-Nigeria-Biafra War Gowon Syndrome i.e. the issue is not how much money you but how to spend it. Most of the commons employed by the state at the federal, state and local levels constitute the main lifelines to most of the population. They are not your so-called elite and big shots with powerful connection to enter CBN under instruction from above for bags of Ghana-must-go of Naira or any foreign denomination of choice. These are common men and women with families to feed, rents to pay, responsibilities to deliver, services and succour to provide and expectations to meet. There are credits to cover, arrears to drawdown and debts to clear.

Sadly month end no longer has its known meaning. Month end is now an unending long rolling temporal plane generating only pain, anger, frustration and death. Many have died from preventable and aggravated illness due to non-payment and or delayed payment of due salary/pension. Sure the state has turned a crafty killer of her won employees! Why should a village, community, town or city thrive when cash flow is unstable? Why should small business grow when the log book is filled with customer debt? The customers are cousins, friends, kinsmen, in-laws and neighbours.

Grand Indicator

Resolving salary and pension payment should have been the first assignment by the current administration.

The government must stop these malicious and premeditated attacks on unprotected citizens. Public employees of all levels must be paid monthly and on time. While some dream of volume of electricity, GDP, reserve and crude oil price as indicator of national status at a time; the named indicators and more are useless when a state cannot ensure payment of salaries/pension in its territory in peace time. This is even complicated by opening of one’s books to intruders like IMF harking back to the confusion mentioned earlier.

We are waiting for the President to vigorously advance this matter immediately making example of APC states and local government. The problem is that this issue may take few tranches of 6 months or rather be a tropical surprise. Enough of gnashing of teeth by public servants and senior citizens imposed on them by their elected. So much for democracy! 

Corruption Incorporated in Evolutionary Geography of Nigeria

Introduction

The so-called nascent democracy of Nigeria since 1999 is not only a watershed in political geography but provides important threshold on the question of her viability as a state. As the majority carry on with their victimhood, the elite have sustained and extended their grip on flagrant abuse of natural resources in the period. The ongoing exposure and dissemination of corruption allegations at the Federal level by the current administration opens a new phase conclusively rubbishing ethnicity as the primary cause of instability. This is the attention of this piece.

Multi-Ethnic Hierarchical State

Nigeria’s political geography was crafted by the British Empire within a strategic (inter-generational) geopolitical framework driven by economic expediency. This design was installed in 1914 and remains to all intents and purposes consolidated to the present day. Within the framework which remains unquestioned by subsequent generations of Nigerian elite and intelligentsia, the peoples of the territory were balkanised between majority and minority with the minorities nested in a regressive hierarchical structure to the majorities.

On this ill-fated diet of political potion many Nigerians have been fed permitting majority of them to appropriate pathological ethnic superiority over the rest. However underneath such unquestioned psychological template is the usual divide and rule installed by Pax Britannica. Sadly the elite including the current President and administration will not question it. Nevertheless the validity and veracity of this thesis remains undermined and inconclusive for many reasons since 1960.

There is no solid evidence that majorities of each ethnic nation benefit from abuse of national resources by any of their members.  What obtained and continues is the elevation and securitisation of elites for a single reason that transfer of power at Independence simply consolidated exclusion of the commons. Democracy in an essence is a mask/vehicle for controlling majority by a few. Unfortunately many citizens have died and properties lost in the ignorant zeal towards implementing ethnic superiority.

National Spread of Corruption Defying Ethnicity

The current phase of the political history is projects a reconfiguration process which is truly amazing in that it is gradually unmasking the lie of ethnicity as a serious driver of national instability whatever it means. Given that in Nigeria questions are not asked of seating and previous administration performance, anything goes. The unserious and meandering attempt to fix the economy has resulted in a minor unavoidable consequence. What elites do in government covertly is seeing the light of day; of course no serious person expects prosecution nay conviction in a court of law.

However the expose of very senior officials from various ethnic nations allegedly involved in misappropriating national budget at the Federal level is instructive. The former National Security Adviser to President Goodluck Jonathan (Ijaw), Alhaji Sambo Dasuki (Hausa/Fulani) is alleged to have mislaid and misused billions of naira. Parallel recipients of misappropriated Federal funds include Chief Olu Falae (Yoruba), Alhaji Yankassi (Hausa), Dr Ray Dokpesi (minority), Chief Tony Anineh (Edo State minority), Mr Nduka Obaigbena (?)and many others.

There are tens and probably hundred of names from various ethnic nations to be made public from various allegations not just from the immediate past administration but from previous administrations if need be. Despite that this is an exercise in exploration, the immediate impact should be on the relationship ethnicity plays. The underlying pattern is the interlocking relationship of the privileged elite across ethnic nations rather than on weak correlation between ethnicity and national instability.

Summary

There is little to be expected from the current administration in terms of using legal means to meet the peoples’ expectation. This is not based on doubting its credibility and ability rather in the face of long complex process of national destruction, rather an admission that coherence and pace of policy implementation time is limited, average 6 months per policy a la Federal Cabinet selection. However evidence is mounting for those who regard Nigeria as their origin to start reconfiguring their erstwhile political educational foundation. It is crucial for them to start reconscientising their worldviews that other ethnic peoples are not the enemy, that conclusion is and has always been false.  

Condensed Summary of Igbo Agitation Features in Nigeria State

Introduction

In view of the latest outpourings of political distress in Nigeria, the subterranean Igbo Question has risen to the surface once again of course as a continuum rather than a new thrust. Sadly this question is competing for attention in a state noxiously bedevilled with regression, inter-generational poverty of leadership and distinct evisceration of history. It is the view of this piece to focus attention on the features that concentrated post Nigeria-Biafra War. It includes features with economic, sociological, political and geopolitical imports.

Geography

Ndigbo originate and concentrate in Southern Nigeria. There is no other origin outside the territory of Nigeria. Within the territory of Nigeria the nearest proximity to international boundary is over 100km and there is no other competing Igbo concentration found in Cameroun. The geopolitical implication is that Nigeria is spared the grief of irredentism which usually emerges with the support of the neighbouring state in the form of military logistics, communication controls, and economic sabotage as part of destabilisation of internal affairs. There is no evidence that Ndigbo in the post Nigeria-Biafra War have seriously exploited the possibility of seeking the support of Cameroun towards a larger political footprint in Nigeria.

Population-wise Ndigbo have been secure within their borders and have refrained from engaging in conflicts with neighbours and apparatus of the State in pursuit of their grievances. The nucleus of Igbo nation remains a bastion of ‘stability’ despite the congruency of economic, social and political deficit of nearly 50 years at both state and federal levels. Of course the absence of conflict doesn’t imply peace, nevertheless organised deployment of violence is lacking in Ndigbo agitations post Nigeria-Biafra War. This is significant those ignored by Nigeria State!

Non-Homogeneity

It is important to stress that media distorted attention on the issue focusing on opinion of elites who naturally are non-Nigerians a la Shugaba (i.e. they were born outside or in pre-independent Nigeria) is erroneous. The current crop of political elite including their Igbo interlocking section are morally reprehensible, lack merit and are dishonestly to discuss or categorise events in Nigeria. This sociological gap exists in Igboland where a dichotomy is apparent between elite and non-elites, pre-Nigerians and post-Nigerians.

Most of Ndigbo consist of post Nigeria-Biafra War young men and young women who never observed, received and confirmed any positive feature or benefit from state i.e. Nigeria. This group have read, analysed, contested and contrasted their observations with expectations only to find Nigeria wanting. Though true Nigerians, they have never felt truly Nigerians since they haven’t received a kobo of Nigeria excess endowment and profits.

The result is the emergence of new leadership class and underclass citizens from among the commons who are in touch with the people. These leaders despite their flaws do not have rented crowds and among the crowds are significant numbers of young women. These men and women have watched their lives reduced in value, observed humiliation of their parents who invested everything to raise them with minimal support of the state. These young people are not harking back to the past rather are fed by the fusion of evident past neglect and humiliations into the present while the elite in their superlative ignorant continue to rant on the indivisibility of Nigeria.

Most if not all of the young Igbo people never received free medical care, never attended education with state support, never observed or used viable public infrastructure and cannot testify to invitation to benefit from state policy. All their lives have been struggle, their parents’ salaries remain unpaid or payments delayed which matured into unpaid/delayed pensions. The pre-Nigerian leaders lack legitimacy, are devoid of trust and are apparently foreign to Ndigbo. The generation gap is unquestionable!

Absence of Nuance

One of the main problems with both elite and the new Igbo leaders is the absence of nuance in poor arguments. The elite concentrate in limited and restricted language of colonial mentality and tired cold war recycled mantra focused on state uniqueness as if a state can exist without a people. Their focus is divinisation of an irresponsible and unaccountable state. They decline responsibility and apparent hate the word responsibility. For them the victim is the cause of his/her victimhood. Blame a stolen item for being stolen!

Their limited diatribes and cheap talks have no room for debate and contextual analyses; they are almost anti-history and allergic to sociology. Surprisingly they are disconnected from emerging languages of positive change and are deft in their refusal to create, invent and discover to sustain their status. The elites are locked insecurely in their own contradictions and in the past. They are allergic to the future, a future where their privileges are challenged and if need be lost.

On the contrary the new emerging leadership in the face of rich resources for agitation seem ‘lite’ on details and almost irrelevant to population segmentation even in the age of network communication. Yes, there is a case for marginalisation; yes, there is a case for injustice; yes, there is a case for discrimination. Firewood and oxygen remain in abundance but there is poverty of clear articulation of purpose, absence of thought-out context and lack of strategic initiative. However and credit to them, the new leadership have burst the bubble of contradiction imposed by the elite and have appropriated it in the present towards a future that empowers and benefits the underclass.

To cap it all there is no respect or appreciation for the written word, no publications, no documents and no references.  On cannot seek the dividend of history and its implication without the written word especially when everyone has mobile phones. There is no evidence that IPOB and MASSOB among others have insightful content and publications on their portals. How do they enlighten their members and attract new members to their cause? How will members be sustained intellectually towards strategic renewal of underpinning ideas? You cannot fight a war of ideas without the written word.

This state of affairs allows the elite and their media to appropriate the argument and mislabel agitation as regressive, miscreants, low-life, misguided, anti-state and counter-productive. They use language that dismiss, diminish, dehumanise and disembody protesters/agitators in the attempt to rob them of their existence, their dignity and their message. This is taking place where the state (with evidence) drags its feet in arraigning suspected elites for allegedly stealing billions of Naira.

Organisational Disarray

It is quite bizarre for Ndigbo to focus their minds on making political headway in their case without solid organisation. While it is historically factual that so far Ndigbo’s political evolution never reached the level of consolidation toward an empire or strong political collective, it is not beyond the current initiative to rethink. There is a dominant intellectual error that refuses to dig deeper for centralisation, that refused to see convergence between tendency towards individualism and centralisation. Contemporary Ndigbo celebrate fragmentation!

No people can reach the level of political seriousness without unity backed by centralisation. No state even Switzerland with her pastiche of cantons can be powerful without centralisation. States among comity of nations in the world with voice beyond their horizon are united, centralised, viable, strategically inclined and resourceful regardless of size, population, location and endowed resources. Review empires from Egypt through United States; their strengths come from among other points centralised political organisation. Edo Empire reached her zenith including geopolitical exploits with Portuguese Empire in the 15^th century. Yoruba Empire, Ghana, Mali and Songhai Empire flourished with centralised political structures.

The Igbo political history since Nigeria-Biafra War is dominated by this existential struggle against the benefits of centralisation. Ndigbo cannot get their due in Nigeria without internal cohesion, without viable single-voiced political structure and without a formidable and respectable organisation speaking with one voice.

The strain of disorganisation and fragmentation rather than de-centralisation is preponderant from the village level. Many Igbo villages/towns lack viable political leadership rather may contain competing platforms. Many so-called family meetings abroad or in Diasporas suffer from the same malaise. There is lack of vision, lack of patience, lack of knowledge and lack of strategic depth and at the core there is a lack of identity. Since the erosion of military rule and four-yearly selection of satraps, Igbo State governors continue to lack viable forum for serious engagement on internal issues but will be the first to appropriate ‘marginalisation’ despite their deliberate regressive leaderships.

No matter how smart, intellectual, economic and industrious a person or people are; without translating these qualities as a collective into formidable political capital through a viable organisation all is waste. This is the plain truth with Ndigbo who for the most part refuse to acknowledge it to their peril. No serious political contender is without a viable, strategic and long-term machine sustained by committed men and women. No political position and concession is gained or extracted without a struggle and the vehicle is formidable, cohesive and unity political platform.

No amount of greed, short-term vision, stolen resources, cunning and intellectual prowess can succeed without clear cohesion of ideas and minds, united to the cause and run professionally over time for a strategic objective. On this point Ndigbo have continuously displayed stupidity and regressive blindness and the impact is apparent at all levels. Politics maybe war by other means, those who want to fight it successfully must start with accepting that a viable, sustainable and strategic political organisation is inevitable.

Lack of Diplomatic Touch

Following from the previous point some of the larger viable Igbo groups having overcome the cohesion, organisation and structural issue still lack viable purpose. This is very apparent in the Diasporas although one must admit that culturally most members of these groups and some of the leadership have no grounded foundation. They have limited social, intellectual, administrative and strategic worldviews. There is strong inability to channel their potentials to exploit political opportunities of host countries for strategic geopolitical benefits. There is poverty of geopolitics and international relations.

As a result of this development among others, most of these ethnic pressure groups remain disconnected from the political currents of their host countries despite holding their passports/citizenship. There is no evidence that US based World Igbo Congress (WIC) has any serious lobby or presence in Washington DC. There is no evidence of its efforts to influence US policy or strategy implementation on Nigeria. Despite the superlative qualities of individual members, many of them have no and do not seek viable relationship with senior members of US regime at least for advance of Igbo cause in Nigeria.

These groups have no serious political and geopolitical capital; hence they are lightweight and irrelevant. The same counts for similar groups in London, Brussels, Moscow and Beijing. A multi-pronged approach requires formidable internal offensive complemented with foreign operations focused on the main global geopolitical contenders in their capitals as listed above. Non-state and extra-state diplomacy is a feature of geopolitics and international political reality. This is the reason no serious analyst or observer will consider the purported search for independence by sections of Ndigbo as credible. The time new countries emerge from the body of existing ones have gone. Current and emerging geopolitical realities are unfavourable as South Sudan is exemplified.

Summary

The few notes above crystallise fundamental sign posts in the existent struggle for agitators and also for the Nigeria State. The issue is a battle of ideas of which both parties seem to be poorly trained or are deliberately misguided in pursuit of what they deem just. The battle of ideas cannot be won on decapitation of reason, or freezing of idealistic/ideological outflow or even regressing to the past. The present calls for revaluation and re-contextualisation and reframing of the issue including articulating new framework and inventing new accessible language disseminated in the written word. 

Toxic Mix of Geopolitics, Media & Full-Spectrum Dominance of the World Summarised

The world is quite old, its essence and resources always coveted by a few who understood it, its benefits violently ascribed by nefarious designs and its power grabbed by a few in the name of many under any guise or excuse. With basic tools like the Media minds and conscience are skewed, perforated, dismembered, overwhelmed with lies and finally subdued. Yes, the power elite will unleash geopolitical designs through crude geostrategic policies to attain their goals and later fail for new hands to repeat their errors down the generations.

Attention to history will prevent each generation from falling into making stupidity a new invention. Even stupidity is ancient in form and demeanour.