Introduction
The recent abduction and hostage of
secondary school girls by Boko Haram in Chibok, Borno State Nigeria has
increased the insurgent group’s profile around the world. This is in part due
to paralysis of Nigerian government to comprehensively tackle and eradicate
Boko Haram after its emergence in 2009. It is the position of this piece that
Boko Haram phenomenon involves more that meets the eyes including but not
limited to potential connections at multiscalar & multidimensional levels
within & beyond Nigeria. The
potential connection is a threat linking persons, states and institutions
around the world.
Emergence
Boko Haram emerged in 2009 during the administration of late President Umaru Musa Yar'adua. Subsequent election of Dr Goodluck Jonathan as president after serving as vice-president
and Acting President didn't dent or diminish their activity. There is no
suggestion that the election of Dr Goodluck Jonathan methodologically enhanced their activity which will be simplistic and
deterministic however it could be argued as part of variable mix. However a few issues remain unresolved within Nigeria including
the fact that Nigeria remains politically and institutionally weak. The stagnant and retrogressive state of
institutions contributed to reduction of politics to personality struggles
managed by coalitions of power brokers (s) elected from their political
parties. The sustained state of affairs in Nigeria despite massive devolved
political architecture lubricated with huge financial resources has been
evaporated by successive administrations post Nigeria-Biafra War. There is surely
a gap for failed politicians at local, state and federal levels to attempt to fill
in misplacing priority of the genuine anger of miserable peoples.
However it seems that at some
level violence is a profitable commodity. Prior to Boko Haram, Movement for the
Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) was a sub-regional template for securing
special attention of Abuja by South-South geopolitical region albeit by violent
means. In any case MEND was ‘settled’ with oil that is ‘flowing with pressure’
from their land. So internal patrons of
Boko Haram calculated that the complexity of the personality politics may
trigger favourable winds to their sails if they deploy similar tools of
industrial violence for a run on the federation account.
Internal Contradictions
Boko Haram carries a lot of
contradictions internal and external to Nigeria. The emergence of the group has
been locked in an ugly unproductive narrative which is very simplistic.
Internally, Abuja under Dr Goodluck Jonathan has folded into inactivity in
taking Boko Haram serious talk less of engaging or understanding it. One may
conclude that Abuja drifted into an uncomfortable position that the group will
simply go away as if the hotspot is beyond its jurisdiction and territorial
integrity. Unfortunately, the emergence of Boko Haram is a complex affair with
ramifications within and beyond Nigeria.
If one reviews overall Federal Government pathetic effort in engaging an
asymmetrical group like Boko Haram; my case for disconnection of politicians,
weakness of institutions, and absent government becomes tenable. There is no
doubt that local and national political elite/brokers/machines from the North
East & wider North geopolitical region may have potential link to the
menace.
It is an insult to the glorious
history of builders and consolidators of Kamen-Bornu Empire that a bunch of renegades
operating a covert and overt machine is decimating their children and descendants
generations later. Boko Haram’s sad
narrative is opposite and retrogressive that only disgrace can be attributed to
NE & Northern Nigeria politicians and elites justifying it. Kanem-Bornu
Empire was one of the powerful and strategic political configurations prior to
colonisation that needs to focus minds (Davidson et al, 1977 p 97 - 103). The personage of Mai Idris Alooma is striking (Davidson et al, 1977 p.101). No empire lasts forever and the present
peoples of NE Nigeria should be able to re-link their heritage to the
achievements of their ancients including but not limited to Kanem-Bornu Empire.
The card of anti-(western)
education is nonsensical. To suggest that northern Nigerians albeit in the North
East are against (western) education is narrow-minded and stupid. This view has
no traction, is simplistic and has no merit. The problems of the North are inflated
by self-reductionism & confused identity nevertheless one must appreciate
the complexity of political systems undergoing change. Northern Nigeria is an
artificial metageographical platform whose utility has evaporated long ago while
its profiteers continue to hang onto it passionately with inter-generational
nepotism. Northern Nigeria is not a monolith. Their leaders’ retrogressive
collective bargain with undeclared dividend to their followers is the death
keel of the North. One of the fallout of Boko Haram will be re-evaluation of
power structures within the mythic North since the abductees are from the North
East. Of course of what remains of Nigeria!
Education did not emerge with the
west and any reading of Basil Davidson’s book on African history including
Kanem-Bornu Empire among others will testify that Northern Nigeria intellectual
self-flagellation/deprecation is pathetic. Following it up with another lunacy
that educational experience recorded in non-Latin script which is rightly a
bomber. Arabic, Greek, Cyrillic,
Chinese, Korean and Indian scripts have been media of excellence, discoveries
and advancement recording and intergenerational transfers of knowledge across the
ages.
From the external front there are
a number of issues that need to be reviewed carefully. In the highly networked
world, a serious event cannot be isolated to its primary geography. An
explosion of a violence machine in the post 9/11 world is not a fair wind
rather is a sinister well-connected instrument to blunt peoples and arrest
their collective development. If attention
is paid to the religious angle of the insurgency, Boko Haram is a violent
expression of erroneous Islam related to evil machinations. While
latter day emergence of Islamic fervour hovers around and reaching Africa with
late intensity, one must pay attention to many West African communities from
Ghana to Senegal and appreciate their positive Islamic heritages, noble
expressions and life-giving advancements. Boko Haram is not Islam, not even anything
like expressed by West African communities of faithful.
Asian Pivot Clarity
To understand African events in
the last decade or more, it will be useful to address the rise of China and how
United States is confronting it. China is gradually becoming a global brand,
the second largest economy (to become the biggest in less than 10 years) and
has the largest trade/current account surplus. As an amalgam of developed and
developing economy, China is expanding and consolidating its economic growth
based on challenging apparent terrains/backyards of the United States including
huge investment in Africa’s extractive industries and market. With Washington DC strategically refocusing
its foreign policy means diminishing the importance of Middle East including
Israel.
With European Union’s castration in the bag including the baggage of
World War 2 rescue dividend, Washington DC has holistically pitched its
strategic assets to contain Beijing in an overarching policy called Asian Pivot. It is a full spectrum policy to
limit or diminish Beijing influence across the world politically, economically,
culturally, militarily and technologically.
With Africa and her vast mineral
resources open to the world market and the highest bidder, China naturally
attempts to fill the gap to extract and obtain raw materials for its insatiable
domestic demands. Of course with her policy of non-intervention in internal
affairs of other countries, obviously Beijing invested billions of money
including huge grants; Africa is booming in part for Chinese investment. With
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank effectively sidelined in
Africa, both part of Washington Consensus, United States calculated that Beijing
can be limited in her African jamboree through military means. In United State
African Command (US AFRICOM), Washington DC recreated a policy and tool to
recolonise Africa based on securing its continental shelves, geological and
hydrogeological reserves.
The only African country that
rejected US AFRICOM publicly was Colonel Ghaddafi’s Libya and his country was
decimated in the name of humanitarian intervention and Medvedev syndrome. Billions of Russian and Chinese investments
went down the pan as Libya was bombed back into Stone Age. Beijing containment in Africa possesses
toolset like ‘regime change’ where applicable and destabilisation with Islamic
extremists. The fall of Tripoli purported to have unleashed Islamic
fundamentalists across West Africa is red herring. With a domino effect on Mali
where China invested heavily, it is not surprising that the apparent collapse
and pacification of west half of Africa is systematically secured by US
AFRICOM. One can even claim that Africa (North) head is completely shaved.
As North Africa (from Rabat to
Cairo) folded, the next target albeit a client of US to all intents and
purposes even though Chinese interests hovers, is Nigeria. A number of events in the last decade placed
Nigeria on the crosshairs of geopolitics especially since Beijing came to town.
First was MEND that came and went. Second was US establishment of a drone base
in Niamey International Airport, Niger; less than 500km North West of Abuja.
Third, Boko Haram emerged in 2009. Bear in mind that any country that is regime
changed and or destabilised successfully is open in the interim to unchecked US
occupation and control. Check Grenada, Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali and
etc.
In the case of Nigeria with an
apparent weakness in politics, governance and institutions and very rich in
resources; it perfectly fits into a picture of candidate to be secured against
Chinese demand for mineral resources.
With the recent abduction of school girls in Chibok, in addition to
pathetic response from Abuja, laced with world (Russia) distraction in Ukraine;
US intervention may be the first step in a series of gradual moves to finally checkmate Nigeria. President Goodluck Jonathan’s performance is similar to
Malian Captain Amadou Sanogo’s action in context. Indifferent and unjustifiable
reaction to serious issues of national interest as master stroke for
humanitarian intervention of the sole hegemonic power is evident in both cases.
If US invest her military
resources along mineral resources supply lines of China, Beijing will be forced
to react in non-military ways but actually denied the resources. However in the
interim her supply is diminished although increased demand will kick prices up
which can be moderated in a way or two.
Opportunity in Pacification
What will be the fate of pacified
Nigeria? This is a difficult scenario to unpick however a few ideas need to be
considered seriously. Either Nigeria is dissolved by US occupation alias
containment which is methodologically feasible or the potential of new Nigeria
is seriously explored. As a weak country, peoples or ethnic nations of Nigeria
have failed to have honest conversation of their raison d’ etre since 1960.
Various political architectural reconfigurations have failed to quench demand
for justice, self-determination and stability in Nigeria. It may well transpire
that various ethnic nations will utilise potential US occupation to engage in
serious debates and discussions on the reasons for having Nigeria or not if
they agree in the affirmation will justify fighting to save it. Now to fight
for it is another matter beyond the scope of this piece. Whichever way Nigeria
ends up, either as one or in many parts, only force will ensure stability in
one or simultaneously in many parts unless mineral resources are exhausted
totally.
Reference
Davidson, B., Buah F.K., Ade Ajayi., (1977) A History of West Africa 1000 - 1800. Harlow: Longman
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