Introduction
The ongoing manifestation and
expansion of events set out decades ago in Iraq are generating uncomfortable
results and complex uncomfortable outcomes. One of the outcomes is the
emergence and boldness of Iraqi Kurds in expressing their self-determination on
the potential ashes of erstwhile Iraq. It is the position of this article that
many parties including Iraqi Kurds are publicly expressing their misreading of
history towards independence which may come back to haunt them which after all may not be another
surprise.
Core Acknowledgement
To put it mildly no one in the region want the Kurds. Across different countries
where they have substantial population, they are not only treated as
minorities, their existence is grossly denied through some of the most
repressive and oppressive political and geopolitical policies. Across the
board, their culture, language, history and human rights are trampled upon. So
as a people they have grown accustomed to pain, suffering, abuse and betrayals.
Nevertheless they have never caved in or given up their dreams of
self-determination. Despite the constancy
of pain, events have not been static or stationary as they interlock in complex
relationships and brazen manoeuvres including armed struggle to press their
demand in different countries.
Geographically and
demographically, the Kurds are surrounded and locked in over time. They are
surrounded by very powerful neighbours who have been and remain unwilling to
grant them basic freedoms and human rights. Pressed down in the North West by
Kemalist Turkey defined only on Turkishness, the Arabs hemmed them in on other
sides with little room despite the gloried exploits of historical figure,
Saladin, except in the West where Iran consolidated its centralised structure
on Persian lines.
The Journey At Hand
This is the first time in the
last recent memory that Kurds anywhere have been able to cobble together a political entity in
the maze of their complex neighbourhood that is tolerated for more than a
decade. This initiative came on the back of 1991 United States led effort to
contain Saddam Hussein adventurism in Kuwait. Establishment of no-fly zone in
northern Iraq offered important platform to the emergence of political
Kurdistan on the ground while laying the foundations for Iraq disintegration.
Whether this was a well thought out policy or outcome made along the way by the US State Department remains contested nevertheless the basic motivating
ingredient, crude oil, remains the critical factor.
It is equally important to review
positions of various Arab capitals especially Riyadh on this development if at
all their attention where focused on it.
It is doubtful that Riyadh possessed and possesses clear policy on Iraqi
Kurdistan even as her geopolitical master, US, returned to finish off Saddam in
2003. Their existential attention on Iran and her potential influence in a
reconfigured Iraq may have blinded their rear-mirror on the issue. Ankara must
have expressed her displeasure because of decades-long violent engagement with
PKK within her borders. It must have been a benign geopolitical item for
consideration with serious distraction in Lebanon and Iran. Tehran’s intolerant
policy is entrenched.
Deployment of regime-change in
Damascus led by Riyadh and backed by Washington DC must have added to the
fuzziness of policy that produced important effects; successful resistance of
Damascus, destabilisation of Non-African Arab World and final disintegration of Iraq
post-Saddam as defined under US (occupation) sectarian imprimatur.
Call for Independence
Successful resistance against
regime-change by Damascus consolidated with a presidential election won by President Assad not only
blunted US plans but has thrown Washington DC into foreign policy confusion.
The implication of the Syrian conflict simply unleashed hardened forces which a
very weak Baghdad cannot handle even though US continues to shift blame and
responsibility. In this maze of destabilisation, Iraqi Kurdistan authorities have
been making strategic moves towards greater autonomy including but limited to
unilateral crude oil sales in collusion with Ankara. It will be interesting how ‘protector of the
Kurds’ fits Ankara but there is a lot of pragmatism for short term gain driving
such bargain.
Noises are coming out of Irbil on
independence and recent statement by Israeli Prime Minister in favour of Iraqi
Kurdistan independence is no surprise. Tel Aviv has always seen Saddam's Iraq
as the main threat as her military support for Tehran during Iran-Iraq War
testified. Nevertheless, Riyadh may be
deflated that her ally in Tehran containment is drawing the dagger into Arab
heart, however it will be puzzling to distance US stand from it.
While Israel has emerged finally
as the dominant military power in the region, how such status could be sustained in a
declining US economy and geopolitical clout remains to be seen, and most
importantly her ever solid domestic policy of occupation. Events of the past few decades has revealed
clearly that beyond holding down the occupation enterprise in West Bank and
Gaza, her foreign policy and military adventures in the region have paid
limited dividends. Tel Aviv is not in
the position to discern Riyadh’s long term policy as Iraqi Kurdistan gains traction
which may only converge with Tehran’s strategic interest strongly favouring
Kurdistan containment.
Time & Space
Iraqi Kurdistan President, Mr Massoud Barzani as a veteran Kurdish
politician fully understands the complex geopolitical flood confronting his
enterprise. It is not lost on Mr Barzani of how he was used as a pawn and
discarded by Shah of Iran in the 1970s to pressure Iraq into signing the Algiers Accord which among other things constrained Iraq’s (Arab) claims of
Shatt-al-Arab waterway.
The memory of the ill-fated 1946
Mahabad Republic will be fresh which collapsed among other factors due to
withdraw/ambivalence of USSR support. Parallel to this development is Moscow’s current
posture of defiance and commitment to indivisible Iraq expressed in the recent
rushed delivery of warplanes to Baghdad in contrast to tepid US response to
similar request. Moscow’s move comes as a healthy monetary dividend, expansion
of military hardware lines and assertiveness contrasting US bog down. Russia is
a huge space with rich demographic and nationality diversity which is an
incentive for intolerance of any suggestion of Iraqi Kurdistan independence.
While Beijing has made some
noises on the general Iraqi file, her mantra of non-interference in other
countries internal affairs will be strong boosted in aligning with Moscow and
Tehran. Her effort to contain Uighur aspirations is a reminder of how time and
space can converge towards an irritant. In any case, with US perceived as a
bull in the China shop by Moscow and Beijing, there is little room to tolerate
another debacle of monumental geopolitical proportions with the Ukrainian
crisis still burning. While Obama’s White House may be unrestrained by
re-election prospect, war weariness of US population coupled with unpleasant
domestic economic realities & increasing distrust of US citizens at their
political machine; short term scope of US pragmatism may be limited in the face
of huge trust-deficit.
European Union is very weak
politically and economically to seriously take a position beyond Washington DC
on the issue. Hence, there is very grave risk of an open-ended conflict between
Iraqi Kurds and other players in the scene/region who may potentially realign
with opposing capitals.
Finally
Reality on the ground that
currently favour Iraqi Kurdistan aspiration can be moderated but not reversed.
Probably this contention may be the saving grace for reversing moves toward
balkanisation of Iraq but rather open the way for actual federalisation with
different sub-regions controlling their natural resources. Kurdish independence
will not be tolerated by any Arab country, Turkey and Iran. Ankara has everything
to play for as the reality indicates that Kurdistan’s crude exports and wider
economy currently depend strongly on her goodwill and converges with her
strategic interests.
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