Another Spectacular Betrayal of the Kurds

Introduction

The recent escalation of perpetual conflict in the Arab-Islamic world has brought usual views and counterviews in the public domain despite the fact that none of the views original or new. While various news media in the West vacillate between raising prospect of Kurdish resistance and their resilience, the true outcome of the current phase of conflict be it balkanisation of Iraq, attempted regime change in Syria or distractive insertion of Daesh into the maelstrom remain thus; Kurds will be betrayed and disappointed. Look back into history.

Strategic Markers

Interesting developments have been emerging in the last few months suggesting that Arab-Islamic world reconfiguration is reaching a critical stage. This is considered partly in view of the current proxy regional war raging in Syria. While the players of various dimensions are known, one player remains the weakest link. This weakness contrasts in scope and context with post 1^st Gulf War imposition of non-fly zone over northern Iraq. At the time Iraq existed, her territorial integrity was respected even by sanction busters.  All the above mentioned evaporated with 2003 ‘shock and awe’ invested by United States. The entity and concept known as Iraq was swept into oblivion.

With such national vacuum, Iraq Kurds perceived an opening and morphed it into an opportune advantage probably in view of history to strategically repositioning under the umbrella of chaos in Baghdad. But the problem is not the south, it is the neighbourhood.  While Erbil saw it fit to challenge Baghdad with Tel Aviv encouragement in illegal crude oil sales, the short-sightedness began to unravel with the immediate difficulty for the stolen oil to be sold. This strategic error signifies the highest realisation of Iraqi Kurdish self-determination because they overplayed their hand.  It is worrying that Erbil approached Ankara anticipating a solid and strategic rapprochement while Erbil is not yet a nation-state which in any event Ankara will not tolerate except with huge dose of finlandisation.

Few weeks ago while the ‘coalitions of the willing’ were emerging like microscopic multicellular organism to fight the latest incursion, bear in mind that some of the coalition member possess enough military hardware to reduce the world to ashes. Ankara demurred. With the recent past exchange of prisoners/hostages between Ankara and Daesh, Ankara made a Neo-Ottoman strategic gamble primarily in conflict with Kurdish aspiration. The inglorious zero-problem policy is in tatters! In approving legal incursion into Syria, Kurdistan Worker Party (PKK) is declared a terrorist organisation and the goal is to use Daesh to knock at the gate of Damascus.

Ankara strategy is to maximise the outcome with a more neutered Kurds within and beyond her border. This is currently expressed in the defensive posture of Turkish troops along the border while refereeing Daesh onslaught from east in Kobani, Syria.  See map below. 

Military Situation in Kobani/Ayr Al Arab, Syria

Ankara is committed to establishing a buffer zone in this area to forestall any Syrian Kurdish aspiration regardless of who is the victor and then advance the cause of regime change in Damascus. Problem is Ankara is not calling the shots and also lacks the capacity/resources to do so even with Washington DC illustrious allergy to robust geostrategy. Damascus policy of concentrating resources in the western part thus freeing the eastern deserts and north eastern sparse population centres to Kurds is not received positively in Ankara.  See map below. Ankara sees as potential destabilisation strategy to link up Kurds in both countries. 

Western Syria High Population Density in contrast to Eastern Desert Lands

Population and Religious Dynamic

Based on wider aggregation of population, the main players in the conflict are Arabs, Turks and Kurds. Minorities up and down the area are deemed ‘invisible’ and false flag ‘elements’ by the various powers seeking hegemony in both Syria and what is left of Iraq. The fact that most of the Kurdish territories are coterminous with large crude oil deposits makes it imperative for Riyadh, Ankara and other gulf capitals to restrict any development and utility of these rich resources by the Kurds.

With Iran contextually out of the battlefield picture, the Kurds are spatially and numerically contained and restricted in their ability to manoeuvre in the short and long terms. While it remains to be seen how post-war Damascus will deal with power allocations and political gains made during the war by Kurds, it is becoming clearer that Syrian Kurds have an opportunity to engage fully with Damascus. Any buffer in the northern border by Ankara will strategically cut Syrian Kurds from Turkish Kurds in the short term. The biggest mistake Syrian Kurds will make is making an opportunistic alliance with Ankara against Damascus. Kobani assault is making it an impossible prospect.

Maybe one of the aims of the ill-fated air campaign strategy is to expose Syrian Kurd to accomplish Ankara’s design because militarily the area under Kurdish population are not only unprotected, the military capacity and resources to reverse an offensive by Daesh or Turkish Army remains to be seen. An air campaign devoid of well resourced ground troops is a figment of imagination and confirmation of irreversible decline of its protagonists.  

These events are not unfolding in a vacuum. PKK has signalled its concerns and worries. It will be difficult for Ankara to reverse the gains Kurds made in the last decade without outright resort to total violence, repression, oppression and massacres. Whatever gain Ankara makes in the short term at the expenses of Damascus, the political climate in Turkey will be most difficult regarding the Kurdish question.

In addition to the devious designs regional players, the religious template dominating the landscape is Islam and its various denominations. The mental image dominating power brokers and victims of war is mirrored in the binary of Shia Arab and Sunni (Arab) Muslims. Kurds are not presented succinctly through the religious prism and at best the presentation has acclaimed that those lands are not Christians except foreigners on pilgrimage. Geopolitically the current religious montage seamlessly interlocks and connects Ankara, Riyadh and the gulf capitals in a united Sunni gambit to dominate and control the final regional outcome which sadly does Kurds of any country no favours.

It is the case that either Kurd raised their hopes too high and overplayed their hand or that they deliberately tasted the dangerous geopolitical minefield.  Whichever way, evidence point to that fact the Kurds in Iraq and Syria cannot defend themselves robustly without external intervention. There is clear absence of capacity and capability for Kurds to seriously navigate the geopolitical complexities of their neighbourhood, a neighbourhood that doesn't want them.  The status-quo of remaining minorities in the different countries that encircles their nations will not be successfully challenged in the near future. Territorially Iraqi Kurds are best placed to explore their limited self-determination with what remains of Iraq through proactive cooperation with Baghdad and Tehran.

Looking East & Global South

As a people surrounded on many levels in their territorial scales, and in addition to the unsuccessful domination of north Atlantic geopolitics of their betrayals; Kurds of every country should tactical commence further exploration of the contours of the emerging geopolitical reconfiguration. This new reconfiguration is gradually enhancing and elevating capitals in the East and in the Global South. The fossilised and inflexible betraying policy of the West will not be productive or generate positive results for Kurds.

The chances of a minority group to hold power in the region similar to Syria is slim and may not be repeated. Bahrain is hanging on but only for a short time, less than a generation at most. The main reason for positing the view of looking East stems from the fact various players in the region who are equally big crude suppliers are increasingly making their profit off high demand and purchases from India and China.  These capitals may never initially be amenable but will be open to receive entreaties.

Maintaining a viable relationship with Global South capitals and Moscow without suspicion with home governments will encourage new confidence for future generation of Kurdish leader in a renewed internationalisation of the Kurdish question. One of the main problems for Kurds in the Atlantist perspective is the clear choice in a binary of interest of which Kurdish question is relegated as an internal affairs matter.  With the strategic objective of having unfettered access to crude oil in return for non-interference on suppliers domestic affair; the Kurds of Iraq, Turkey, Iran and Syria in descending order were freed from comprehensively addressing the questions.

Beijing, Delhi, Brasilia and Moscow are rising in profile. This is amplified by the continued US aggression towards their strategic and core national interests. While the US will not collapse in one day, her prowess is in decline on many fronts. While the difficulty of such interaction cannot be dismissed, strategic interests and pressure from the named capitals may be the catalyst for Kurds in every country to maximise their self-determination to a higher extent.