The Missing Link in Nigeria’s Current Election Re-Scheduling

Introduction

A recent past article explored the use of Nigeria Army and Intelligence Agencies by the incumbent regime to advance its electoral interest. In the face of election re-scheduling by the Federal Government, it is important to highlight a pattern deep in the country politics against dealing successfully with large numerical projects like election and census. On another level, there is clear evidence that the most important dimension will continue to defy citizens and peoples; true solution-oriented leadership.

Intelligence Agency Co-option

By the time Col Sambo Dansuki opened his mouth in London few days ago advancing his reasons for election re-scheduling the die was cast. This individual is not even a minister of state hence unqualified to address such matters in both domestic and foreign fora. Only Internal Affairs minister and or INEC Chairperson including their appointed subordinates are competent to address elections issues to any audience. Clearly the incumbent regime and ruling party are under enormous pressure for such desperate measure.

First of all the information was not for Nigeria domestic audience who are the main stakeholders of elections. He was reaching out to the global elite, the powerful global network that interlocks its underlings on the Nigerian branch. In any case one can surmise that the message is clear; your investments will be secure under our regime if you understand our policy of temporary legal amendment (including rigging for the boss).

The only card played by this abuse of Intelligence agencies by the current regime is the elevation of the impending election to national security issue. By so doing so a fundamental mistake was secured, this is a mindless conflation of policies and dereliction of duty in addressing Boko Haram. If Boko Haram was not nipped in the bud and remained irremovable over 4 years, it is a toxic farce both to blame them for election re-scheduling and pledging to eliminate them in a few weeks. While Abuja is fully aware of this crisis plus its incompetence and malfeasance in managing it, it is also very clear that Abuja’s silence, subterfuge and pretence didn't confuse Nigerians.

Despite their suffering and smiling in the face of adverse waste of their huge national resources, they are tuned in to the fact that under the current regime; Nigeria’s territorial integrity is compromised. No amount of election re-scheduling will delete this important and ubiquitous fact. The president has not only failed to reassure Nigerians in the face of billions of naira defence budget but has also failed to express confidence of his ability to execute his function as Commander-in-chief in dealing with the crisis among others. Leadership is deficit including maintaining trust and delegating authority.

While many political parties are wondering about the real reason behind the expected decision, evident failure of the ruling party to tarnish the image of one of the presidential candidates via school attainment has already caused a strategic casualty.  Nigerian Army has been destroyed, its image tarnished and its future decimated due to her poor leadership in misaligning her core interest with narrow regressive interest of a political party.

Gerrymandering Geopolitical Interest

Few days ago US Secretary of State arrived Abuja to ‘advise’ on enhancement of democracy and sacrosancy of elections. Apparently what is obvious is not his statement which the US top diplomat is known for his undiplomatic nuances rather on how Nigerian interlocutors from PDP, APC and Abuja apparently demoted themselves to pupils seeking election manna from heaven. It is important to note that US has stopped or has significantly reduced her crude oil imports from Nigeria. Question is why was Mr Kerry in Nigeria?

Poignantly prior to his departure the same old noises on US infidelity were splashed on several dailies as puerile justification for the inability to confront and eliminate Boko Haram as a threat. Nevertheless it is equally clear that Boko Haram is a high stake leverage used by geopolitical powers including US and France to contain Nigeria within expected framework. However, a regime with contested objective, devoid of internal cohesion and bereft of real leadership cannot deliver in the domestic scene or at the comity of nations.

Failure of Leadership

The level of malfeasance and corruption among the political class is now stuff of legend. While election is not dissimilar to basic housekeeping processes, history has shown that Nigeria is in no shape to appreciate elections, a basic tool of problem management as a strategic initiative. The current and previous leaderships have been defined by corrosive failure in leadership best captured by an ontological depravity towards elections and census.

There is no point rehashing economic incompetence, project mismanagement and multi-dimensional anathema to positive governance at all levels of government. The recent past or ongoing verbal exchanges between a former Central Bank governor under a discredited regime and the current Washington DC consensus Finance/Economy Minister managing a discredited economy are significant and poignant. Of course no one is fooled and will not be. This is the missing link to all the preponderance to excuse events as opportunities to imposed regressive solutions such as re-scheduling elections. The commons, ordinary citizens and the plebs will continue to struggle and ‘suffer and smile’ with disinterest and fervent hope.

There is hope since nature abhors vacuums. There is an opportunity to be discerned in the whole drama for the commons. There is a huge opportunity for the commons and progressive forces to commence basic interactions and solidarity among themselves for real solutions. Two casualties are already recorded; Nigerian Army and PDP. These entities have already moved further in negatively reconfiguring core national ideals. Nigerian Army no doubt will need leadership make over. As for the big parties, something will give as they have failed as vehicles for positively realising aspirations of struggling peoples of Nigeria.

A new way of doing politics is inevitable. A time for new ways of serious politics in all geographies where the peoples are the engine, the machine and real determinant of their future has beckoned. With social media and Internet former barriers deserved to be analysed critically, programmes developed, policies and solutions propounded where prospective administrations will be held to account in post-colonial Nigeria.

In Conclusion

A number of options are abandoned for contemplation. Despite hollow excuses Boko Haram will not be dislodged from their positions within the time frame re-scheduled for national elections. If Abuja is to be believed that military hardware and equipments are the problems, there is no evidence that the Western Alliance led by Washington DC will approve sales to Abuja in the interim period. The military with a battered image maybe compelled to commence an aggressive scorched-earth policy against Boko Haram in the 4 states Abuja allege they hold territory meaning that few billions of naira will be thrown at the same problem to sway the electorate (in PDP favour) with little result in a short time.

Abuja is constrained to approach Moscow and Beijing for assistance due to lack of foreign policy independence. Another option is the well-worn rigging to ensure PDP grip on power. Well, there is no point speculating peoples’ potential reaction. Regardless of any option whether in isolation or in concurrence, Nigerians have made up their minds not just on voting but on where their strategic future lies. It is in a post-colonial Nigeria beyond the current broken & compromised system.