Geopolitical Hijack of Global Media Narrative

Introduction

The last 2 weeks has ushered in renewed sense of desperation in the mainstream media especially the Anglo-US branch which apparently dominates the western discourse. The first splash was the meandering manipulative positioning of Irish referendum on same-sex relationship. Just on the immediate rear is the perfectly timed arrest of select (non-US citizens) FIFA officials on corruption allegations.  It is the position of this article that these 2 media events are choreographed, staged-managed and manipulated disinformation strategies. Like in all psychological operations, there is the usual covert creator, observant targets and ‘hallucinating’ audiences.

1^st & Foremost

The last few weeks have been rumbling with a deft maneuvere by Palestinian people to ameliorate and breakout of the malaise of obnoxious neglect by world superpower. Palestinians made play at FIFA knowing the impact of football on the geopolitical landscape, towards their strategy in bring attention once again on their inter-generational plight. Ramallah came roaring from the last defeat at the United Nations to get Israel suspended from FIFA activities.

United States is not interested in football but Washington DC is the Israel’s main backer. In the face of Sepp Blatter’s imperviousness of her immense pressure, corruption charges where swung around like proverbial hammer. There is no doubt that those arrested hold votes that may decide the Palestinian application.

2^nd & Second most

It is interesting that these arrests and allegations are elevated to global attention towards the end of the 2^nd quarter. The western part of the northern hemisphere is obviously in economic delirium with no positive figures and positive prognosis beyond profit devoid of production. Apart from quantitative easing (money printing), statistical admonition and hyperbolic bravado, the economies are the verge collapse. Long term economic outlook is very grim. IMF and World Bank are respectively seeking for relevance with signposted of regression flagged in Greece and Ukraine.

It is instructive that the West led by United States has refused to prosecute bank & public officials who allegedly contributed to global financial collapse in 2008. Rather they tightened the screw on the common by imposing genocidal austerity. So much for selective application of (extra-territorial) law! Except for Iceland, no western country has pursued prosecution of financial irregularities. What has football got to do with calculated mischief?  The West has gone beyond the pale in the desperate attempt to teach nonsense to an already wise global audiences.

Of course there is speculation that the swoop is targeting Russia’s 2018 World Cup. It is good for the 24-hour news there is more complexity and significance indicating that Russia’s hosting rights will remain untouched. Bear in mind that no matter how much Russia is traduced by western media, economic power has shifted east while irrelevance of the West is too early to call.

3^rd & Last

The geopolitical networks of the North (not the Global South) encompass the economic, geopolitical, cultural, intellectual and historical dimensions. The idea that FIFA and especially (Caucasian) Swiss Sepp Blatter is now eliminated or banished from western elite is preposterous. Western elite and western hegemony is solid, compact and lively to be dismissed by suggested disintegration. The allegation and arrests are part of a disinformation campaign to distract, disarm, abuse and discredit global audiences. 

Finally, by this misinforming act, the objective has been achieved in the interim with consequences coming later and beyond the glare of global audiences.

Rumbling Stirrings of ‘New’ Power in Europe’s Periphery

Looming Greece & Spain Anti-Austerity Govts facing European Union

Introduction

Results from recent local elections in Spain went as expected which is the breakup of the country’s duopoly between Peoples’ Party and the Socialist Party. There is no surprise in it. Nevertheless there is a geopolitical twist which will surely start ruffling feathers in Berlin and Brussels. This election is foreboding for these capitals and shouldn’t have taken place. In this context it is important to explore the fitness of current lame-duck power struggle between these capitals and Athens and the implications of future European elections under austerity umbrella. 

Rejection of Democracy

The arrival of the current government in Athens was not welcomed by European power elite for the single reason that their pre and post-election manifesto refused to balk at the former threats and machinations. The SYRIZA government has so far remained taciturn in rolling over as expected and Berlin is clearly uncomfortable with this development. Her indefatigable resistance cannot be denied. A new electoral configuration is emerging in a Europe with most old-handers refusing to countenance it as it threatens their power base. 

If there is any lesson unfolding for underdogs bent on resisting Berlin/Brussels volcanic pressure, it is to stay the course until a positive rupture emerges in another part of the continental body politics. Unfortunately Berlin couldn’t dismantle Athens to its noxious design and now it is too late. The biggest mistake that Berlin made is her intransigence to accommodate Athens in the short-term towards a strategic lock-down. Even the creditors will now display genuine flair for a stable Greece as a pre-condition & benchmark for positive transactions. 

The recent bold position by Athens to bulldoze her creditors with default shows anticipated maturity and a strong message of pregnant disposition. With this position, domestic hurting Greek audience across party divide will reposition behind an inundated government which in itself is a victory. It is interesting that Spanish election was taking place around the same time.

On the contrary the right-wing pro-austerity surge in United Kingdom is a comforting balm in both Berlin and Washington DC although London has descended into a bastion of domestic sound biting. 

Iberian Indignation

While Madrid is not encumbered with stable negotiations with stability in divergent expectation of the nature taking place between Brussels and Athens, her dream of hanging on evaporated last weekend. No one knows how much angst Madrid frothed towards Berlin as a result. Even a pathetic association with a statistical exclusion from recession is exposed for what it is, a contrarian to real-life Spanish experiences. As anti-austerity parties made gains at the local level at the expenses of the ruling and opposition parties, the political landscape has entered a new pregnant phase.

Apparently the days of austerity politics are numbered at least in Spain since the ruling party has become anathema in many quarters. It is difficult to see how Brussels instructions to Madrid will trickle down in opposition councils and regional governments. Unfortunately Madrid is caught between a geopolitical bifurcation where she aligns with Berlin/Brussels while the newly-elected opposition in various councils and regions make common cause with Greek ruling partymanifesto/policies. While it is still distant, domino effect of anti-austerity parties is a strong potential across Europe in the coming years. Time and new additions will enhance anti-austerity parties’ potency and maturity.

Athens will feel morally bolstered as it is observes a flame bursting her bubble of isolation. This is poignant in view of her recent expression of immaturity in abandoning Russian gas pipeline/funding overtures in a hurry under intense Washington DC pressure. While Moscow is unsurprised of Athens entrenchment in the NATO alliance, Athens is now boxed in (with limited leveraging power) to commence a battle of attrition with Berlin/Brussels since evidence of concession from the latter is a mirage. Apparently Athens misread & acquiesced to Washington DC moves forgetting that IMF & World Bank are active agents of US economic imperialism.

Conclusion

Newly-elected anti-austerity parties in Spain will have hands-on learning period before national election in a year or two. They are strategically placed to organise, mobilise and prepare to confront Berlin/Brussel later only if those capitals will remain relevant around the time of their ascension and confrontation. As for Athens it remains business-as-usual to breathe post-summit optimism while her opponent(s) take custody of contrary platitudes. Only a critical mass of anti-austerity parties in EU national governments or a black swan event will turn the tables as a prelude towards a successful outcome. Else lame-duck diplomacy is the only game in town.

Senegal Insertion in Saudi Arabia’s Pre-emptive Strike on Yemen

Mash-Up Penisular Maps of Senegal & Saudi-Arabia

Introduction

The ongoing Riyadh’s aggressive projection of power in Yemen scoured around for legitimacy and after substantive rejections by strategic allies; Dakar fell in line to offer support. Dakar’s response is complex to understand and the timing suggests among other things elements of desperation on the part of President Sall. Naturally Senegalese opposition is crying foul. This article attempts to explore the emergency Dakar-Riyadh rapprochement.

Peninsular to Peninsular Diplomacy

It is interesting that Dakar, Senegal’s capital seats on a peninsular on the westernmost point of (West) Africa while Saudi Arabia seats on the huge peninsular apparently hived off from Africa-Asia tectonic drift. Nevertheless activities between the 2 capitals intensified recently after long period of almost dormancy. While Senegal is a global cultural giant sustained with rare treasure of political stability, the suggestion that Dakar is adopting a religious-oriented diplomacy may send chill on the spine of observers. However, indication is suggesting that Dakar is playing realpolitik if context is considered with nuance.

Senghor’s Senegal

The first president, Leopold Sedar Senghor, set the tone from independence which successive presidents have adhered to till present. Its foreign policy until the end of the cold war is tied in part to Paris France Afrique/Foccart Network policy.  It is a bastion of stability in a neighbourhood of recent destabilisation. The political culture is very sophisticated and advanced with an enlightened electorate. Except for its internal conflict in the Casamance region ({cursed by geography} in the south, south of The Gambia) since 1982 which though unresolved has transformed into low-level skirmishes, Senegal is a model country. 

Casamance Region of Senegal in red - Cursed by Geography

The elitist & unpopular Senegambia confederation which is the biggest post-independence foreign policy failed the test of mutual confidence in 1989. It was a strategic experiment wisely designed to mitigate against shared security interest of Senegal and The Gambia respectively. Senegal has never been a threat to her neighbours.

Economy Stupid

With a population of nearly 14 million and growing including a growing economy which is transforming from its former status as an economic space dominated by French products, there are constraints in meeting its domestic obligations. Its rich fish resources are violated by many powerful countries including Russia through illegal fishing/trawling amounting to annual losses of millions of dollars for Dakar. The uncoupling of the currency CFA from French Franc& limitation of Senegalese product in the EU/US markets further exposed the economic space and structures, which has always being in the shadow of Cote d’Ivorie economy.

This trend was temporarily stemmed during the Ivorian civil war which among many outcomes led to the re-direction of shipping/flights/international trade by landlocked (Francophone) countries of West Africa from Abidjan to Dakar. The end of West African conflicts has reversed this trend so Dakar is forced to reconsider her economic fundamentals in a shrinking global economy. Interestingly Senegal is a strategic point for migrant enroute to Europe with often fatal consequences in the Mediterranean Sea.

Geostrategic Balancing of Riyadh

Saudi Arabia’s structures of power managed by geriatric ruling elite exposed her to recently reconsider her strategic objectives in the face of reconfiguring Persian Gulf. With Tehran almost assured/recognised as the regional hegemon by Washington DC, in the face of US non-purchase of Saudi’s crude oil and China’s recent pivoting in Pakistan; conflict-encircled Riyadh is confronted with an existential question, how does it remain relevant in the region? In a sense Riyadh’s post-Abdullah aggressive posture in Yemen only confirms the error of a previous miscalculated geostrategic move in the overproduction of crude oil leading to global collapse of price. War cost money (fleeing profit).

The Riyadh's Yemeni diplomacy only emerged as an opportunity for Senegal not for her military prowess or stellar quality of its armed forces as mischievously asserted by BBC. The unexpected snubbing by Pakistan & Egypt respectively in their refusal to send troops on Riyadh’s request opened the way for Riyadh to seek new lightweight allies in her emergency coalition. On this point, Dakar (the only non-Arab) is playing realpolitik at an unknown price; one-off or nested in future regional cum geopolitical adventures. Dakar is not known as an Islamic/religious brand and it is also unclear the terms of her soldiers’ participation and on which theatre. The recent report of the downing of a Moroccan fighter jet by Yemeni revolutionaries must have been noted with concern in Dakar.

It must be recalled that with US AFRICOM breathing down the neck of Africa with military alacrity considering recent past invasion of Libya and its consequences, Dakar’s position cannot escape coordination with a challenged Washington DC and a weak Paris. Therefore recent Dakar-Riyadh rapprochement of mutual convenience is purely a timely economic opportunity on the part of Dakar which will evaporate in a few months as all indicators point to Riyadh’s limited military leverage over time in the Yemeni theatre.

In the absence of a ground offensive in Yemen by the Saudi military command and a parallel absence of invasion of Saudi Arabia by Yemeni revolutionaries, it is almost certain that Senegalese troops may be on ‘Saudi leave’ which will duly expire by the end of 2015. Nevertheless Dakar has won her brownie points not just in Riyadh but also in Washington DC and in Paris. 

Conclusion

The impending question for the future is where does this recent conflict situate regular armies and the use of military drones? Will Senegalese troops or elements be infected with Wahhabi virus including of course the potential lethal consequences for its internal security? Only the future will tell. For now it is economy stupid.