Rumbling Stirrings of ‘New’ Power in Europe’s Periphery

Looming Greece & Spain Anti-Austerity Govts facing European Union

Introduction

Results from recent local elections in Spain went as expected which is the breakup of the country’s duopoly between Peoples’ Party and the Socialist Party. There is no surprise in it. Nevertheless there is a geopolitical twist which will surely start ruffling feathers in Berlin and Brussels. This election is foreboding for these capitals and shouldn’t have taken place. In this context it is important to explore the fitness of current lame-duck power struggle between these capitals and Athens and the implications of future European elections under austerity umbrella. 

Rejection of Democracy

The arrival of the current government in Athens was not welcomed by European power elite for the single reason that their pre and post-election manifesto refused to balk at the former threats and machinations. The SYRIZA government has so far remained taciturn in rolling over as expected and Berlin is clearly uncomfortable with this development. Her indefatigable resistance cannot be denied. A new electoral configuration is emerging in a Europe with most old-handers refusing to countenance it as it threatens their power base. 

If there is any lesson unfolding for underdogs bent on resisting Berlin/Brussels volcanic pressure, it is to stay the course until a positive rupture emerges in another part of the continental body politics. Unfortunately Berlin couldn’t dismantle Athens to its noxious design and now it is too late. The biggest mistake that Berlin made is her intransigence to accommodate Athens in the short-term towards a strategic lock-down. Even the creditors will now display genuine flair for a stable Greece as a pre-condition & benchmark for positive transactions. 

The recent bold position by Athens to bulldoze her creditors with default shows anticipated maturity and a strong message of pregnant disposition. With this position, domestic hurting Greek audience across party divide will reposition behind an inundated government which in itself is a victory. It is interesting that Spanish election was taking place around the same time.

On the contrary the right-wing pro-austerity surge in United Kingdom is a comforting balm in both Berlin and Washington DC although London has descended into a bastion of domestic sound biting. 

Iberian Indignation

While Madrid is not encumbered with stable negotiations with stability in divergent expectation of the nature taking place between Brussels and Athens, her dream of hanging on evaporated last weekend. No one knows how much angst Madrid frothed towards Berlin as a result. Even a pathetic association with a statistical exclusion from recession is exposed for what it is, a contrarian to real-life Spanish experiences. As anti-austerity parties made gains at the local level at the expenses of the ruling and opposition parties, the political landscape has entered a new pregnant phase.

Apparently the days of austerity politics are numbered at least in Spain since the ruling party has become anathema in many quarters. It is difficult to see how Brussels instructions to Madrid will trickle down in opposition councils and regional governments. Unfortunately Madrid is caught between a geopolitical bifurcation where she aligns with Berlin/Brussels while the newly-elected opposition in various councils and regions make common cause with Greek ruling partymanifesto/policies. While it is still distant, domino effect of anti-austerity parties is a strong potential across Europe in the coming years. Time and new additions will enhance anti-austerity parties’ potency and maturity.

Athens will feel morally bolstered as it is observes a flame bursting her bubble of isolation. This is poignant in view of her recent expression of immaturity in abandoning Russian gas pipeline/funding overtures in a hurry under intense Washington DC pressure. While Moscow is unsurprised of Athens entrenchment in the NATO alliance, Athens is now boxed in (with limited leveraging power) to commence a battle of attrition with Berlin/Brussels since evidence of concession from the latter is a mirage. Apparently Athens misread & acquiesced to Washington DC moves forgetting that IMF & World Bank are active agents of US economic imperialism.

Conclusion

Newly-elected anti-austerity parties in Spain will have hands-on learning period before national election in a year or two. They are strategically placed to organise, mobilise and prepare to confront Berlin/Brussel later only if those capitals will remain relevant around the time of their ascension and confrontation. As for Athens it remains business-as-usual to breathe post-summit optimism while her opponent(s) take custody of contrary platitudes. Only a critical mass of anti-austerity parties in EU national governments or a black swan event will turn the tables as a prelude towards a successful outcome. Else lame-duck diplomacy is the only game in town.