Senegal Insertion in Saudi Arabia’s Pre-emptive Strike on Yemen

Mash-Up Penisular Maps of Senegal & Saudi-Arabia

Introduction

The ongoing Riyadh’s aggressive projection of power in Yemen scoured around for legitimacy and after substantive rejections by strategic allies; Dakar fell in line to offer support. Dakar’s response is complex to understand and the timing suggests among other things elements of desperation on the part of President Sall. Naturally Senegalese opposition is crying foul. This article attempts to explore the emergency Dakar-Riyadh rapprochement.

Peninsular to Peninsular Diplomacy

It is interesting that Dakar, Senegal’s capital seats on a peninsular on the westernmost point of (West) Africa while Saudi Arabia seats on the huge peninsular apparently hived off from Africa-Asia tectonic drift. Nevertheless activities between the 2 capitals intensified recently after long period of almost dormancy. While Senegal is a global cultural giant sustained with rare treasure of political stability, the suggestion that Dakar is adopting a religious-oriented diplomacy may send chill on the spine of observers. However, indication is suggesting that Dakar is playing realpolitik if context is considered with nuance.

Senghor’s Senegal

The first president, Leopold Sedar Senghor, set the tone from independence which successive presidents have adhered to till present. Its foreign policy until the end of the cold war is tied in part to Paris France Afrique/Foccart Network policy.  It is a bastion of stability in a neighbourhood of recent destabilisation. The political culture is very sophisticated and advanced with an enlightened electorate. Except for its internal conflict in the Casamance region ({cursed by geography} in the south, south of The Gambia) since 1982 which though unresolved has transformed into low-level skirmishes, Senegal is a model country. 

Casamance Region of Senegal in red - Cursed by Geography

The elitist & unpopular Senegambia confederation which is the biggest post-independence foreign policy failed the test of mutual confidence in 1989. It was a strategic experiment wisely designed to mitigate against shared security interest of Senegal and The Gambia respectively. Senegal has never been a threat to her neighbours.

Economy Stupid

With a population of nearly 14 million and growing including a growing economy which is transforming from its former status as an economic space dominated by French products, there are constraints in meeting its domestic obligations. Its rich fish resources are violated by many powerful countries including Russia through illegal fishing/trawling amounting to annual losses of millions of dollars for Dakar. The uncoupling of the currency CFA from French Franc& limitation of Senegalese product in the EU/US markets further exposed the economic space and structures, which has always being in the shadow of Cote d’Ivorie economy.

This trend was temporarily stemmed during the Ivorian civil war which among many outcomes led to the re-direction of shipping/flights/international trade by landlocked (Francophone) countries of West Africa from Abidjan to Dakar. The end of West African conflicts has reversed this trend so Dakar is forced to reconsider her economic fundamentals in a shrinking global economy. Interestingly Senegal is a strategic point for migrant enroute to Europe with often fatal consequences in the Mediterranean Sea.

Geostrategic Balancing of Riyadh

Saudi Arabia’s structures of power managed by geriatric ruling elite exposed her to recently reconsider her strategic objectives in the face of reconfiguring Persian Gulf. With Tehran almost assured/recognised as the regional hegemon by Washington DC, in the face of US non-purchase of Saudi’s crude oil and China’s recent pivoting in Pakistan; conflict-encircled Riyadh is confronted with an existential question, how does it remain relevant in the region? In a sense Riyadh’s post-Abdullah aggressive posture in Yemen only confirms the error of a previous miscalculated geostrategic move in the overproduction of crude oil leading to global collapse of price. War cost money (fleeing profit).

The Riyadh's Yemeni diplomacy only emerged as an opportunity for Senegal not for her military prowess or stellar quality of its armed forces as mischievously asserted by BBC. The unexpected snubbing by Pakistan & Egypt respectively in their refusal to send troops on Riyadh’s request opened the way for Riyadh to seek new lightweight allies in her emergency coalition. On this point, Dakar (the only non-Arab) is playing realpolitik at an unknown price; one-off or nested in future regional cum geopolitical adventures. Dakar is not known as an Islamic/religious brand and it is also unclear the terms of her soldiers’ participation and on which theatre. The recent report of the downing of a Moroccan fighter jet by Yemeni revolutionaries must have been noted with concern in Dakar.

It must be recalled that with US AFRICOM breathing down the neck of Africa with military alacrity considering recent past invasion of Libya and its consequences, Dakar’s position cannot escape coordination with a challenged Washington DC and a weak Paris. Therefore recent Dakar-Riyadh rapprochement of mutual convenience is purely a timely economic opportunity on the part of Dakar which will evaporate in a few months as all indicators point to Riyadh’s limited military leverage over time in the Yemeni theatre.

In the absence of a ground offensive in Yemen by the Saudi military command and a parallel absence of invasion of Saudi Arabia by Yemeni revolutionaries, it is almost certain that Senegalese troops may be on ‘Saudi leave’ which will duly expire by the end of 2015. Nevertheless Dakar has won her brownie points not just in Riyadh but also in Washington DC and in Paris. 

Conclusion

The impending question for the future is where does this recent conflict situate regular armies and the use of military drones? Will Senegalese troops or elements be infected with Wahhabi virus including of course the potential lethal consequences for its internal security? Only the future will tell. For now it is economy stupid.