The Beginning of the End (Nigeria)?

Introduction

Events of the last few months in Nigeria especially in the east of the Niger are beginning to show interesting patterns. Patterns of confrontation and open conflict between different dynamic forces and factors are gradually emerging from the fissures that predate Nigeria’s consolidation in 1914 as a British geopolitical project. Taking a departure from 2016, this article will address some historical pointers while zooming on a few variables in Eastern Nigeria whose movements over time suggest strong indications of rupture rather than compromise.

In the Beginning

If the concept, entity and geopolitical reality referred to Nigeria has a foundation; it is evidently very weak that its owner must be caught between knocking it down to rebuild it and investing huge resources to shore up the foundations. Indications suggest that the Leaning Tower of Pisa has a better chance of standing another few centuries. Having written that, historical amnesia has the strongest index in many who review Nigeria.

Geographically, Nigeria consist of 2 parts. Fulani Empire in the north and the rest. Fulani empire covers swaths of territory from Borgu west of Sokoto to Garoua, Cameroun on the east – west axis between longitudes 4th degree East and 14th degree East. Its latitudinal extent ran from the 14th degree North to below 8th degree North. Makurdi seats on the 8^th degree parallel. Ilorin in slightly north of Makurdi. This is a huge geopolitical space ran from Sokoto. This arrangement came into existence after Usman Danfodio became the master of Sokoto and developed an ingenious geopolitical order laced in the amalgam of Islam & fulanisation to overthrow and dominate all lands east and south.  Rivers Niger and Benue didn’t obstruct this policy.

This order held firm until post-1885 Berlin Conference Scramble for Africa took effect. While Islamo-Fulani hegemony held sway, sections of the population in this multinational and multi-religious empire sustained their struggle for limited autonomy. These include various nations around today’s southern Kaduna,  Plateau, Benue, Taraba and Adamawa and old Borno. What appears as today’s struggle in these lands are phases of an old struggle for political control rather than clashes for land. Names like General Zamani Lekwot, Colonel Yohanna Madaki and Zango-Kataf should ring bells. Nations south of the two rivers bar Ilorin were never under Sokoto. For complete treatment read A Short History of Nigeria by Rex Niven.

It is important to stress that all officials of Fulani Empire from its beginning to the present are Black Africans i.e. dark-skinned Africans. However while Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe & Chief Obafemi Awolowo cared less,  certainly Dr Yakubu Gowon and Mr Theophilus Y Danjuma never knew or read these histories!

Interestingly the eastern boundary have changed several times from the 1950s until the recent past concession of Bakassi Peninsular to Cameroun. There is no northern boundary as permanent lines are not marked in the sand rather the frontiers start from the last arid settlement. This is clear from in-bound Kano flights descending from Northern Niger.

Operation Python Dance

Towards the end of 2016 widespread discontent in the general population reach fever high. The main driver of discontent is purely economic, the absence of capital and lack of regular access to capital in every form. This is testified to a macroeconomic policy of waste which bring many things to collide simultaneously. A mismanaged economy, an unproductive space, an over inflationary market, low (informal and formal) worker morale and enthronement of corruption! With this deadly cocktail, Abuja primed itself in a selective response to citizens reaction by targeting 5 Igbo-majority states.

Adopting a buffering strategy of limited interaction & partial exclusion, Operation Python Dance was deployed with full military powers against the population of the states. These are unarmed civilian populations focused on day-to-day survival who are facing sanctions in their homeland in a constitutional republic. This policy is expressed in and round these states along the major roads punctuated with military/police check points every 4km. There are also intra-city check points. The role of the check points include slowing movements, increasing cost of business/interaction, extorting money and inciting the populations. One can call these spaces military zones because the uniformed persons on these checkpoints act with impunity.

The other method is the deployment of cattle herds by armed ‘intelligence’ persons to prowl villages and communities for information with geographical precision. These are not cattle grazing exercise rather a show of dominance of a self-assumed conqueror.

However the unseen consequences include alienation of the populations and confirmation that they are beyond the pale of Nigeria. It has mental and experiential impact inflating an already huge collective memory. On another level it strengthens the connection between the younger generation and their parents’ negative experiences of Nigeria in the 1960s that culminated in Nigeria-Biafra War. To them these acts confirm that Nigeria is trust-deficit, unreliable, unstable and uncertain. In summary, sanctions or Operation Python Dance failed abysmally but accelerated new realities & new leadership disconnected from the old guard. The nascent leaderships with undefined constituencies are experimenting with new aspirations beyond the confines of Nigeria’s narrative. Abuja lost the narrative, which is ‘one-Nigeria by any means’ narrative.

Salaries & Pensions

It is difficult to appreciate how Nigeria survived this long from a data perspective. It almost defies logic that an entity dominated by long-term south-facing variables and indicators is unconsumed for nearly 2 generations. Well! This survival parameter is strongly shaken by two powerful indicators. In the 5 Igbo-majority states public service salary and pension payments are non-trivial. In addition to the combustion unleashed territorially by Abuja in Operation Python Dance, poverty of leadership is fully expressed through non-payment or delayed payment of remunerations.

Various states governors have elevated the ugly practice into traditions of fund denial to workers and pensions in the last 4 years with disastrous consequences. The best salary and pension payments states are Ebonyi, Anambra and Enugu. Imo and Abia States are dung-heaps for public servants & pensioners. Public servants constitute majority of workers and are the major sources of funds for families and communities. The deliberate disruption of this flow of strategic resources is a watershed feeding the narrative that these communities have no future in Nigeria. The average salary & pension payment cycles are 4 months & 6 months respectively in Imo State.

Which society will endure this vicious trend devoid of reaction for such a long time? How can such spaces develop? How can schools, hospitals and services function? How can stability be ensured in the communities? The abysmal standard of living & poor quality of life are instant outcomes. Only in few places does local leadership shows strategic thinking in absorbing the lessons as opportunities for collective action. Sadly non-government (grassroot) leadership is tenuously weak across the board leaving the space for various voices with unclear motives. Evidently this scenario has increased tension in the land as Nigeria continues to recede gradually from hearts and minds.

Free Pass

Observations made during the last Holy Week in Imo State confirmed new realities on the ground. Since December 2016 roads in the named states are punctuated by military/police checkpoints. This is the case every 4 km or less. For unfolding reasons, Aba – Owerri Road from Airport Junction to Owerri had only 2 checkpoints against the daily average of 5. One at the Airport Junction and another at Akachi Junction! The reason for this development was unclear, it was certainly not government policy. However reports since then have continued to present pattern of checkpoints abandonment by military personnel and police beyond the sub-region.  

If this pattern is sustained over a time, it will testify to the huge loss of morale in the military/police ranks. It also signals that costs of manning checkpoints are accruing more than benefits. On another level, it suggest that rank and file no longer follow orders from high command. The recent past popular End-SARs demonstration is important to note.

Whenever this pattern of events become apparent, a wind of change in the power distribution is imminent. This means that the status quo ante is no longer tenable in its erstwhile configuration. Nevertheless, while general breakdown of order is not apparent perception of order has evaporated. The weak tangibles of the state is fritting away. Will it be conclusive? Will the custodians of one-Nigeria make one more attempt toward its restoration? Let the reader draw conclusions.

Conclusion

The situation in Eastern Nigeria is dire. All indicators are pointing south. Most of the long-suffering populations perceive recent events with reservation and concern. While uncertainty thrives, people know that nature abhors a vacuum. It is difficult to accurately pinpoint when the end will come, if it will. What is certain to come is more suffering, more discontent, more struggle and tension from the biggest state in the West African shatterbelt called Nigeria.