Brexit – A Normal Geopolitical Realignment

Introduction

Last month was the first of  conclusive steps in United Kingdom’s exit from the multi-state continent group European Union. In a sense UK have spent the last 5 years working feverishly to overcome what seem apparently like an crisis of identity but in reality is a natural response to emerging shifts in geopolitical power. The thrust of this discuss is to draw historical contours of this response in view of wider reconfigurations, isolate what remains for the Kingdom and summarise some evident post-Brexit structures.

Europe 2

Europe has been a sustained theatre of geopolitical contests for the last 500 years. In most of these centuries, power projection is coupled with fire power finally decided in major wars where and when necessary. To say the least, Europe is a violent space and such heritage remains near the surface despite a gap of conflict in the last 70 years. When the fate of post-WW11 was decided in Yalta, the real winners where United States and Soviet Union. United Kingdom at the table was no better than France outside. Evidently both winners divided the spoils of war i.e. Europe between them with the marking west of Vistula (Poland) on the doorsteps of Elbe (West Germany). This cartographic reality sustained by mutually agreed deception known in the West as Cold War endured till 1991.

As 2^nd rate players on the western flank with full awareness of history, UK and France spearheaded a dual renewal based on remaining colonial possessions in Africa & Asia under US imprimatur and revaluation of their common European home. As Churchill was deluding with grandiose global panache of uneconomically pedigree he locked totally in Washington DC embrace, De Gaulle was clear that French hegemony was limited in the face of the ascendant United States. As a professor of history and fluent in German he fully understood his remit. Keep out the Anglo-Saxons for a while!

His grand strategy was simple. Nip future German aggression in the bud by tying her down with trade arrangements powered by Paris and Bonn (then West Germany capital). He approached Adenauer, the German chancellor and they fleshed out a phased programme for European integration starting with 6 countries. UK was not part of the 6. With the Treaty of Rome in the bag, institutionalised Europe was decided, created and progressed. It was a success. De Gaulle ensured that UK will play no part and that 'law' was effective until his death. United States had no problem with the idea and its substance after all she was the unrivalled master of Europe.

Later Day

Bearing in mind that France is a permanent UN member with huge colonial possessions, was blinded by the complexity of a stale geopolitical identity which expressed itself in her wasteful wars in Indochina and Algeria. Nevertheless the cost of wars and cost of post-war reconstruction naturally opened the door to embrace trade in a global market. UK was deftly reconfiguring her colonies with ‘peaceful’ arrangements of future neo-colonial control with an awareness that the Commonwealth market is limited.

UK cannot be successful while removed from Europe, so with the demise of De Gaulle applied for EC membership and was accepted with Ireland in 1973. It was convenient for London to play in the new field of successors between US and USSR taking advantage of the new EC geopolitical realignment to advance trade expansion, technological advancement and diplomatic maneuvers. Falkland Wars was an example where France halted weapon sales to Argentina for UK interest.

The African space was collectively manacled with the odious Africa-Caribbean-Pacific (ACP) wireframe called Lomé Convention. Simply put it specifies that ACP states are the markets while EC is the seller with limited access for ACP products in her market. This remains the case today. In a sense EC/EU arrangement suited London, Paris and Bonn/Berlin for a time. London’s status as a global financial centre became ascendant with the Thatcher regime drawing capital from the EC. The weight of UK in EC/EU mustn’t be underestimated, it was a heavyweight but this was not causing discontent at home.

Drawbridge

The collapse of the Soviet Union brought new realities to Europe and Berlin made the most of it by pragmatically restoring its sphere of influence. Starting with German reunification and advancing the collapse of Yugoslavia, it gradually stepped up the plate with its huge resources towards fuller mastery of Europe. Despite US geopolitical primacy, other developments in Russia and Asia especially Japan, China and India; opened the door to challenge the global order in various fronts.

United States found it cheaper to produce in Asia (with tax cuts) and progressed its deindustrialisation while concentrating on the niche/military/high technological footprints. Only Germany was ascending in similar path with economic growth, economic development and silent diplomacy on the world stage. EU’s advantage surged. With a new currency (Euro) constructed on the German Deutsch Mark, Germany became EU banker and lender of last resort.

With sustained less than 2% economic growth, poverty of innovation and limited industrial production, France and UK are bound to stagnate. With domestic interest rate at 0% for nearly 2 decades freezing savings out, declining wages and widening societal gaps; London was condemned to confront discontent and polarisation in its domestic politics. Failure to admit irresponsibility is equal to finding an enemy and EU fitted the bill and was baptised thus. All politics is economic! Simply put, Berlin is the rivalled master of Europe with the paraphernalia, wealth and influence.

With Trumpian US making clear its preference for an isolated hegemony devoid of remoras, UK was contained towards imposed renewal drawn the poverty of a virile political elite. So with rising Asia, consolidating Russia, buoyant EU and stirring rest of the world; UK had one way to go. The historical baggage of empire days languished in the face of modern aggressive geopolitical competitors. A test case is the recent past purchase of 5G network from Hauwei. UK lacks the technology and lack the resources to purchase costlier options from its western partners.

Final Descent

UK has never been far from Europe. It has decided the fate of many outcomes on the continent. She is a beneficiary of Westphalian geopolitical infrastructure. However the recent ascendance of Berlin is perceived as both a challenge and message. Germany was defeated in 2 horrible conflicts, and has emerged to take the hotspot two generations later without a shot. Germany is the new rivalled master of Europe, of course US is the security chief.

As UK returns to her place the chalky islands across the channel, it is important to stress that she is not a loser in the real sense as states are not condemned to remain ad infinitum in alliances. Alliances are parallel envelopes for short-term and medium-term expressions of grand strategy. London remains a permanent member of the UN with veto power, it possess nuclear arsenals, has limited armed force in terms extra-territorial projection/deployment ability and sustains a working economy. Her physical boundary is limited to North Atlantic waters and Northern Ireland on land. It wasn’t so in 1920.

Her global influence continues to weld through perception of its values, identities and image. One example is the recent past UK-Africa summit where African heads of state huddled together in London raptly focused on a dishevelled and inaudible prime minister. So the strong do what they can, the weak suffer what they must.

UK remains one of the great powers in or out of the EU. Still a premier European state!

Amotekun – The Fresh Lion in Nigeria’s Regional Geopolitics

Introduction

2020 has brought an early fresh wine in the almost insipid Nigeria’s political concoction. A deft move from the Western Region bears the marks of a classical geopolitical response to perceived encirclement by apparent powerful protagonists. While the move is fresh and interesting, it invites the strongest insight into its structures and processes driving it.

History 2.0

To understand this view it is better to transcend the 36-states structure and settle on the pre-1966 regional arrangement for improved clarity. Look at the history books and maps again as they make sense. The pre-1914 map of Nigeria consists of Fulani Empire above Niger-Benue rivers and the nations south of the rivers. This is critical for under-50s.

It is important to stress what many hollow analysts refuse to admit as a fact. Nigeria is a multinational state which is uncertain, unstable and unreliable since it emerged from the womb of its designer. One can safely conclude that most data over time show that Nigeria’s objective is the paralysis of its nations bar a few favoured ones by violent means. Nigeria has never appreciated internal cohesion or the admission of the primacy of her nations as the building blocks towards the emergence of a Nigerian nation.

Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the first Premier of the Western Region,  laid it bare when he referred to the Nigerian as a mere geographical expression. Considering this nuanced geostrategic bluster buttressed on exclusive ethnic nationalism, Nigeria with all her human and natural resources became a rich source of ready exploitable wealth as long as it lasted. Other regions were the competitors.

Mindful of the cartographic manna that fell from geopolitical heaven with the creation of Mid-Western Region/Bendel State in 1963, the Yoruba nation consolidated into a favourable space for unassailable implementation of a calculated ethnic geopolitical agenda a la Awolowo. This was a credible and realist approach to stem the flow of idealistic constructions of power in a space devoid of clear purpose and an effective driver.

The consistency of one nation with one language, one culture and one dominant collective experience set the stage for rolling out a grand strategy by a grand master. Western Region shares an international land border with Benin Republic. Geography doesn’t lie!

For a man who retorted years later that 24 hours is sufficient in the highest office, his best opportunity arrived during Nigeria-Biafra War when the intellectually denuded counter-coup plotters offered Chief Awolowo the ‘presidency’ and the rest is history. Even Are Afe Babalola has said it on record that Nigeria-Biafra War was fought with funds from the Western Region, certainly an investment with perpetual dividend regardless of who is in charge of Lagos/Abuja with untold consequences to the other ethnic nations. 

The designs of Chief Awolowo were given legal imprimatur of the Nigerian State hence the regional advantage of an exclusive maritime area in the south feeding the landlocked hinterland. This remained effective regardless of who is the master of Lagos/Abuja. East of the Niger up to the 8^th parallel was condemned to waiting for time until the final excision of its rich maritime asset (Bakassi Peninsula) to Cameroun as negotiated under Chief Awolowo. This was the greatest geopolitical error that was only accounted for by the genetic instability of a state. Still Chief Awolowo deserve the utmost respect.

Next Move

The potency of Chief Awolowo’s grand strategy continued to flow with unmatched energy as the comfort of Western Region security declines in the festering Nigeria. Suffice to admit that the busiest seaport and airport is in this Region, it has the biggest commercial space and the highest concentration of physical development and infrastructure. Free education, free medical care, most universities/teaching hospitals, densest macadamised road network, busiest international airport, busiest seaport, high proportion of federal appointments and etc are some of the benefits. Western Region remains the biggest beneficiary of Nigeria. On this merit fittingly rest the magnanimous reference of Chief Obafemi Awolowo as the ‘best president Nigeria never had’ by the Head of State of ex- Biafra.

With such benefits, the post-1999 civilian rule gradually opened new spaces for contest, winning and losing that has condemned most players with poverty of vision and ignorance of purpose. The born-to-rule in the Northern Region may not have contemplated an impending challenge. The Western Region was not untouched by the machinations, alliances and reconfigurations as demanded by collective strategic interest. Huge changes were coming despite misleading appearances.

Lion Paws

2020 came with a flash of rejuvenation of intellectual advancement with the release of the lion, Amotekun in Yoruba. Amotekun is the regional security architecture launched collectively by all state governors in the Western Region. This geopolitical posture seem to have caught the Northern Regional political elite by surprise. The freshness of the idea is neither toxic nor is it original considering various earlier cheap alternatives designed for a piece of Nigeria’s cake.

Moving beyond its ethnic national flavour, it became clear that they have geographical consistency, concentration of infrastructure, massive commercial advantage and geopolitical disposition. For the first time Nigeria i.e. the deep state, took notice and panicked. This is most visible in the Northern Region despite the fact that Western Region is the most pro-Nigeria. Eastern Nigeria have other fish to fry.

What is attractive is the solidarity of governors in the region towards addressing a common interest with a common voice. While evidence suggests that the strategic initiative may be currently lacking, no sane mind across the Nigeria should deny its geopolitical potency. The obvious fact of the design is its confederal aroma and intellectual descendancy from the Aburi Declaration. Lagos/Abuja have vehemently continued on the path of security centralisation which has increased militarisation and regimentation of the society. In a sense Nigeria has become a densely militarised civil space.

Resistance to security apparatus decentralisation by the centre is vicious and potent. Centralisation of security apparatus ensures the consolidation of the deep state by the powerful elite who are the state. Amotekun lays bare the nonsense that governors are the highest security offers in their territories. Governors’ are legally inferior to commissioners of police in their respective states. Centralised police has the centre as its sole line manager. Governors cannot remove police checks near their governor’s residences.

Considering that all indicators of advancement and growth of Nigeria are negative offers a place for Amotekun to be rightful appraised. The arguments of insecurity is consistent across the territory and few ethnic nations are devoid of this existential concern. To deny that Nigeria is a serious security concern is immoral and inhuman. On this note Amotekun is justified as an idea, a hypothesis and a construct in reality; without dismissing its geopolitical potential.

Conclusion

Amotekun is an unclear but welcome development. It has arrived to remind regional elites and power brokers that power cannot be contained at least as an idea. Nigeria is very weak and has little traction among most capitals and chanceries of the world. Her internal structures and processes have sustained waste, corruption and illegality. Therefore uncertain regional dynamics cannot be dismissed. One thing is very clear from the recent geopolitical trend, all powers great and small are exhausted from the inside rather than from outside as the conditions favouring external intrusion are internally constructed. It is unclear whether Amotekun is a call for compatriots to arise or to hail the state. It is very early but certainly time will tell.

Benue State ‘War’ – A Geopolitical Perspective

Introduction

Benue State has been embroiled in a bitter conflict in the last year which has continued to unleash huge losses in lives and property across its perimeter. This land is the home of Tiv and Idoma nations respectively for thousands of years.  As part of a sacred geography leading from the 8^o North (Makurdi) southwards and east of the Niger, it forms part of a unique consistent reality that deserves a better treatment considering its place in the wider leaking geopolitical umbrella i.e. Nigeria.

Definitions

Geopolitics is not just the interplay between geography and politics, it goes beyond mere references to political processes imported under duress to satisfy opportunistic elite and gullible populations. Gertjan Dijink referred to geopolitics as the assessment of geographic conditions underlying either the power (security) of a particular state or the balance of power in the global configuration of continents and oceans. Those who ignore geography do so at their peril. The point is power, the struggle for power which no one gives up without a fight.

On our subject, it is easy to modify the reality in territorial reconfigurations with Nigerian State and the implications and motivations behind such changes. Benue State or the territory has a spatial history in the process of Tiv/Idoma Nations → Southern Nigeria → Northern Region → Benue – Plateau State – Benue State. Sections of its territory moved between Nigeria and Cameroun before 1960. Nevertheless southern Nigeria from 8^o North formed a consistent geopolitical entity sheltered more than 75% by maritime envelope against the opposite looming continental/inland/hinterland reality.

In a geopolitical reality conditions of viability and consistent security are driven by centripetal forces while instability, insecurity, disunity and non-cooperation are dominated by centrifugal forces. Where centrifugal forces dominate, the leaders are mostly pretenders and mercenaries who oversee ambitious and questionable geostrategic policies often ignored by populations over time. Centrifugal forces is the term adopted for driver of Nigeria’s deformity & injustice.

Evolving Positions & Assignments

Given the spatio-temporal impositions on the Tiv/Idoma nations since Nigeria came into existence, it is fair to conclude that their location, unique characters and capabilities counted against them for any geopolitical mind. In addition their leaders are simple mercenaries till the present. The British exploited these variables by shoving them from South to North locking them down to an intergenerational spatial lockdown as a minority. Centrifugal forces placed her territory in a stand-by mode where it is dominated by fear although given to feigned value and substance. Of course Joseph Tarka played along! Considering the time these nations experienced wider global interaction to the present, her economic development is abysmal.

As Nigeria took her place in the wider African Shatterbelt area, a bastion of instability in the compression zone due to consistent internal disequilibrum; Tiv/Idoma nation where assigned undertaker roles. As Nigeria exploded naturally post-independence, they were mobilised to defend the state and contributed most in the machine that industrially mowed down their immediate southern neighbours 1967 – 1970. Unity of bipolar world played its part at the time.

With a fancy name of Bread Basket in the post Nigeria-Biafra War era; the anticipated reform, revitalisation and innovation of the space as the unique strategic food producer of the world never coughed. Rather the likes of the committee chairman accepted to bury Abandoned Property with more questions than answers in 1979. Another undertaker acting for centrifugal forces no doubt! Apparently the political realities over time continued to drift with poor physical footprint and diminishing economic uplift suggesting a waiting game. More people continued to leave than enter the Tiv/Idoma space, with limited infrastructure to sustain her potential as sustained value generator.

Harvest & Method

The return of civilian dressers to Nigeria’s power machine accelerated a new order. It is fair to state that Benue State mercenaries never sought rapprochement with their southern neighbours, record doesn’t exist of a viable understanding with the Yoruba nation while dividends of their subordinate investment to their northern neighbours remain questionable. Their clinical execution of State assignments deserves them a better deal, while centrifugal forces played for time.

When time came, a low intensity pre-emptive conflict opened up against Tiv/Idoma nations destroying, killing and maiming. Nothing is held sacred by the unknown (self-organised) aggressors but the victims are the defenceless men, women, youth and children up and down the nations. If it were a declared ‘war’, these unfortunate nations never heard the announcement. Blood is flowing unstoppable in the lands with Makurdi confused and Abuja indifferent. Media reports are measured. Yaoundé is not involved, it is totally an internal affair of Nigeria. The justice system is dazed & ill.

Tiv/Idoma elite including mercenaries and pretenders are either disinterested or shell-shocked like generals incapable of strategic vision. Their reported reminder to global powers reads frustration. Certainly Benue State is reconquered for a new assignment! Consolidation of 2^nd colonisation! Where Tiv/Idoma nations insiders in Nigeria?

Uncertain Future

One day blood flow of the innocent will stop, in the meantime the youth and able are emigrating in large numbers. Instability and insecurity has descended on the Tiv/Idoma nations for at least 2 more generations. The currency of their geopolitical allegiance is damaged beyond repair, so the new leaders in the remaining youth must come up with a new reconfiguration rather than another imposed gambit. There is power struggle for the soul of Tiv/Idoma nations, for her rich land, her natural resources and her strategic location. Who will rewrite their new history, aggressor or victim?

Conclusion

Will the winner consolidate in Benue State or rather play for time in a march to the sea? The latter is quite a geopolitical scenario easy to dismiss by basket mouths! How could a maritime culture be rapidly dismantled in the 21^st century by continental apparatchiks backed centrifugal forces? Look again at history and geopolitics for the living to hold the fort and the dead to rest in peace.

Neo-confederacy and a new Nigeria

Introduction

A new dawn is emerging on the wreckage known as Nigeria. While economic woes, policy confusion and political obstacles dominate the headlines, the underlying forces and processes are taking new forms with significant import mostly ignored by the population. This article attempts to bring together historical snapshots and emerging process of national governance that is changing power forces in the beleaguered country.

On the back of conflicts

A musician once waxed that Ghanaians appreciated Nkrumah only when he died. Human memory is limited on every scale even in digital era and mass publications. The currency of political events in Nigeria has forced citizens to recall the greatness of the previous administration. One of the masterstrokes of Dr Goodluck Jonathan’s administration was realising that no army can fight in more than a theatre simultaneously. Among other things he contained the insurrection in the South-South to extract room to engage seriously with the onslaught in the North East. Moreover South-South holds most of the recoverable crude oil reserves. It paid off but the dividend wasn’t obvious at the time.

General of all conflicts

The new administration wasted no time to unleash different battles on various fronts simultaneously. Evidence of feasibility studies, cost-benefit analysis and scenario analysis of these escalations are hard to find. This resulted in continued offensive in the North East, renewed conflict in South-South and in corruption-land. North East conflict though with less strategic impetus is moving towards ‘frozen’ status, corruption war is bogged down while South-South is reconfiguring the country. Given that South-South conflict is long-running and crude oil is at the centre, the new administration seems to have overplayed its hand with old-school mentality of One-Nigeria by any means necessary. 

Money is power

When the new administration took office, South-South was calmer but tense. The national amnesty was running toward expiration/renewal. Abuja kept all in suspense on strategy and potential moves. Observers expected anything given precedence despite many battle fronts already in active mode. Considering the strategic value of South-South, sagging national revenue and malfeasance in the economy; a better approach would have ensued. 

Abuja refused to read tea leaves properly and joined battle with South-South armed groups. The first law of conflict which Napoleon understood is that war cannot be advanced without a buoyant economy. In addition the armed forces is demoralised, have depleted arsenal and restricted supplies. On the contrary, the armed groups are mobile, savvy and sophisticated. They are armed with advanced weapons and other technological gadgets in addition to local intelligence on oil assets and installations locations. 

Battle of Tactics vs Strategy

While limited resources is spent by the state on moving men, equipments and weapons of the armed forces from various locations to the theatre; the armed group played for time in their home turf. With local advantage as the armed forces engaged, the armed groups knocked out few critical oil installations, ground crude oil export and froze the national economy. Without crude oil export money into government coffers is reduced. Each day millions of naira is lost for nearly a year and government cannot posture out as propaganda has already diminished the armed groups. The government has been forced by tough economic barometer and weak strategic position to confront reality. Either Abuja climbs down, safe face and negotiate or the rot continues indefinitely. The country boils on.

Reconfigurations to new Nigeria

South-South armed groups and their political interlocutors have scored a strategic victory in redefining the role of non-state actors and extra-federal political forces to shape the country. They are gradually proving that the future of Nigeria lies not at the centre rather in the outliers. Power is shifting from other locations to South-South for real. One of the reasons for this outcome is the long dismissal of their grievances as distraction by the centre. Now it is becoming clear that Nigeria’s future lies in the South-South. They have the armed group, crude oil, the human resources and the technological assets to pursue their strategic design for space within Nigeria. How long they will last is open, they have contradictions.

Historically recollections can confirm advancement of advantage over colonial distortions, Biafra, Ogoni eruptions and MEND skirmishes. Once again Aburi Declaration comes to the fore. Memories of Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu bubbles up as he smiles in his grave! Resource control by real resource owner is inevitable. Confederation is emerging without the name and this political reality is difficult to dismiss. So far crude oil remains the main economic lifeline of Nigeria the emerging realignment cannot be erased, South-South has come of age to stay as a major player. They have the means to control access, supply and delivery of crude oil in real time. While zero-sum game is not an option, what is not also an option is total elimination of the experience by force. So negotiation table is the only game in town. Power is no longer in Abuja, Sokoto or Kaduna; it is in South-South.  The peoples are watching, the nations maybe itching!

Geopolitical Baggage

One of the most unfortunate consensus is the diplomatic coldness of geopolitical powers on Abuja. Despite perceived openness, Washington DC has maintained a strategic distance. She focused on recovering if possible her Middle East credentials with Ankara’s revived strategic autonomy on the back of the recent past coup attempt. In addition the TIPP trade deal which should have secured Asian pivot is unravelling with Vietnam cooling down and Philippines boldly asserting that Beijing has come of age. Russia is unconcerned with African file confirming that Moscow (Bolshevik or not) doesn’t ‘want a hand in the African sun’.  Following Brexit as General De Gaulle expected, United Kingdom is finally settling down to her real post-colonial small size while EU continues with ill-fated attempt to mix ‘clay with iron’.

Conclusion

Reconfiguration of Nigeria is unfolding to a new level. Unexpected convergence of forces has rubbished old template of power. Ethnic politics is potent and South-South is pointing out the contours of confederal accommodation with strategic economic and political implications. The centre may not hold as it was known for too long. Many may not notice for a longer time either.

Summary of Infantile Conclusions of National Economy Nigeria-Speak

Introduction

All of a sudden national media is collectively pouring out of the various voices of pseudo-reason on the state of the national economy as if anything radical is taking place. Nevertheless there is an overdrive in warning about it in the similar manner elites shout on the ‘indivisibility of one Nigeria’ while all along dividing it by proxy. Now everyone with microphone is nothing short of a Nobel Laureate in Economics waxing lyrical on macro side of the sun at one time and forgetting the meat of the story all the time before and after. So what is missing? Have a ride on the short summary below.

A State devoid of State

There are 2 main cohorts in the population found within the territory called Nigeria; the silent victims-majority across all ethnic nations and the loud minority elite interlocking in a powerful network across all ethnic nations. The majority have watched national events since 1914 and concluded that watching is not a bad trait. In a twist of fate watching is appropriated as a positive variable on quality of life for this group. They diligently watch the elite eviscerate everything a state should be in the last 3 generations which only produced confusion, waste, malfeasance and death. Therefore they cannot be deceived into accepting that the economy should be robust in confusion lighted by controlled demolition of state structures. Where is the State in Nigeria?

Denial of History

One of the highest achievements of the loud minority is the elimination of history and History from national consciousness. Even before 24-hours news arrived to decapitate attention span and thinking, the dogma of ahistoricity was instituted with seamlessness that an average majority can only in silence seek his/her roots beyond the 2^nd generation. The drowning on his/her soul on technical secular education dehumanised his essence to the level of immediate sensory perception devoid of context. He/she is free to condemn those who came before without and against reason while evidence piles for consumption.

No, it is not validated by the North. No Dr Kenneth Dike, the foremost economist historian and his like count for nothing. Even as the last blocks of neoliberal edifice successfully managed by Chinese communists totters, he/she refuses to recall the wisdom of the past. If you don’t know yesterday/origin, how can tomorrow/destination be navigable? If such journey were Nigerian economy? What goes up comes down and up again. Remember Shagari administration? How much did crude oil sell under his watch? If you care check it out!

Consumption without Production (Financialisation)

First of all there is no electricity and by the way the refineries are condemned for sale. Solar energy is toy on serious development. For the past 40 years Nigeria has been selling crude oil and other unaccounted national resources, spend the income on anything money can buy including imported toothpicks. Yes, General Gowon (Syndrome) unleashed this demon that refuses to leave the hall called Nigeria. For all the noise, policy documents, implementation initiatives and prostitution for foreign investment; production is minus. 

Even money is exported to foreign banks and the other nations’ wastes are imported for show. And you are asking why the economy has tanked? Toxic waste was once imported into Nigeria with bill of lading to boot and cleared at a port near either Warri or Sapele. No, it is not CBN, independent or not whatever it means! If you don’t produce and don’t save; surely after the rain comes the sun or vice versa.

Unaccounted Accumulation not Resource Scarcity

When the current administration blamed the preceding one for all the ills and wrongs of the country, you wonder if Nigeria has been under former President since 1960. National power has changed hands between elites with and without uniform. National accountability is anathema in Nigeria, the tradition has taken root and to uproot it will take more than singing in one’s evening of life. If there was a government(s) that paid attention to economic accountability, it expired in 1966.

So crude oil can sell for any price by the way the selling price is not fixed or determined in Nigeria or by Nigerians. They can sell it in Naira which is even splendid at least there will be no temptation to print money or prop it up with another paper called US dollar. Unsold volumes remain underground for another day. Until sold crude oil receipts are audited and accounted for let every trap simply shut its dignity on current diving prices.  

Ignorance of Geopolitics

Who is Nigeria’s Foreign Minister? Until the economy improves and domestic arena takes shape!

While we wait for answer to the above question to filter in, the last few months have displayed an administration that deliberated extricates itself from real global geopolitical reconfiguration. The visit to US, attendance of G7 summit and other western diplomatic soup kitchens all point to the same door; Washington DC. There are other parts of the world and other serious players too. Unreconstructed western-centricity is disastrous in foreign policy as Malaysia showed in the 1990s.

Few warning signs were ringing. US recalibrated her position on Nigeria by stopping crude oil imports. Buyers are customers and customer is king but Abuja can only swallow likes and dislikes given her by Washington DC. In addition US under an ‘African-American’ showed real Africa policy in Libya and Egypt, and what happened to terrorism? Any lessons or do you read only democracy while others see naked power? Is Nigeria not threatened?

OPEC ceased to exist with the passing of Venezuela’s Commandante Hugo Chavez and retirement of Iran’s Dr Mahmoud Ahmedinajad. Next Saudi Arabia launched is geopolitical offensive in 2015 with overproduction phalanx and continues the policy till date. The dividend is in the crystal ball. The icing on the cake is her all-out offensive on Yemen; surely Riyadh can fight on many fronts. Any lesson for Abuja?

Lastly, we warned about potential impacts of a successful conclusion of Iran – P5+1 nuclear negotiation. There were no takers in Abuja. Tehran is singing for snatching a deal from Washington DC without paying in war blood, Havana did the same. Any lesson for Abuja or Nigerians? Crude oil price will dive into single digit before stabilising. OPEC may go, Yemeni conflict ceases and new contracting quota system subsists for crude oil price to go north.

Conclusion

Crude oil glut and price depression have their time. Many responsible countries lack crude oil and care more for crude oil exporter's revenue (legal and illegal). Nigerians, please wake up.

Nigeria Pay Salaries and Pensions (On Time and Regularly)

Introduction

The change of guard at the helm of national affairs following 2015 presidential election initially and naturally generated loads of expectations and enthusiasm for positive outcomes probably in the long rather than in the short term. As the dust of expectation settles it is becoming apparent that business as usual in the negation of basic activities of a population is consolidated. In short the regressive state of salary and pension payments has continued. This ugly practice must stop.

Confusion Incorporated

It started with promises without inside experience. Then once inside all economic problems and undiscovered information were blamed on the immediate past administration. The ongoing trend is belated broadcasting of alleged national thievery by elites (associated only with the previous administration) which is no news until a conviction is secured with time in jail to boot. In the background it took 6 months to get the national cabinet in order while experience of abuse of processes continued infinitum. Such a package of actions for an incoming administration is rich in significance.

Money Matters of the Commons

What is evident is that for a very long time probably starting from the inception of post-Nigeria-Biafra War Gowon Syndrome i.e. the issue is not how much money you but how to spend it. Most of the commons employed by the state at the federal, state and local levels constitute the main lifelines to most of the population. They are not your so-called elite and big shots with powerful connection to enter CBN under instruction from above for bags of Ghana-must-go of Naira or any foreign denomination of choice. These are common men and women with families to feed, rents to pay, responsibilities to deliver, services and succour to provide and expectations to meet. There are credits to cover, arrears to drawdown and debts to clear.

Sadly month end no longer has its known meaning. Month end is now an unending long rolling temporal plane generating only pain, anger, frustration and death. Many have died from preventable and aggravated illness due to non-payment and or delayed payment of due salary/pension. Sure the state has turned a crafty killer of her won employees! Why should a village, community, town or city thrive when cash flow is unstable? Why should small business grow when the log book is filled with customer debt? The customers are cousins, friends, kinsmen, in-laws and neighbours.

Grand Indicator

Resolving salary and pension payment should have been the first assignment by the current administration.

The government must stop these malicious and premeditated attacks on unprotected citizens. Public employees of all levels must be paid monthly and on time. While some dream of volume of electricity, GDP, reserve and crude oil price as indicator of national status at a time; the named indicators and more are useless when a state cannot ensure payment of salaries/pension in its territory in peace time. This is even complicated by opening of one’s books to intruders like IMF harking back to the confusion mentioned earlier.

We are waiting for the President to vigorously advance this matter immediately making example of APC states and local government. The problem is that this issue may take few tranches of 6 months or rather be a tropical surprise. Enough of gnashing of teeth by public servants and senior citizens imposed on them by their elected. So much for democracy! 

Corruption Incorporated in Evolutionary Geography of Nigeria

Introduction

The so-called nascent democracy of Nigeria since 1999 is not only a watershed in political geography but provides important threshold on the question of her viability as a state. As the majority carry on with their victimhood, the elite have sustained and extended their grip on flagrant abuse of natural resources in the period. The ongoing exposure and dissemination of corruption allegations at the Federal level by the current administration opens a new phase conclusively rubbishing ethnicity as the primary cause of instability. This is the attention of this piece.

Multi-Ethnic Hierarchical State

Nigeria’s political geography was crafted by the British Empire within a strategic (inter-generational) geopolitical framework driven by economic expediency. This design was installed in 1914 and remains to all intents and purposes consolidated to the present day. Within the framework which remains unquestioned by subsequent generations of Nigerian elite and intelligentsia, the peoples of the territory were balkanised between majority and minority with the minorities nested in a regressive hierarchical structure to the majorities.

On this ill-fated diet of political potion many Nigerians have been fed permitting majority of them to appropriate pathological ethnic superiority over the rest. However underneath such unquestioned psychological template is the usual divide and rule installed by Pax Britannica. Sadly the elite including the current President and administration will not question it. Nevertheless the validity and veracity of this thesis remains undermined and inconclusive for many reasons since 1960.

There is no solid evidence that majorities of each ethnic nation benefit from abuse of national resources by any of their members.  What obtained and continues is the elevation and securitisation of elites for a single reason that transfer of power at Independence simply consolidated exclusion of the commons. Democracy in an essence is a mask/vehicle for controlling majority by a few. Unfortunately many citizens have died and properties lost in the ignorant zeal towards implementing ethnic superiority.

National Spread of Corruption Defying Ethnicity

The current phase of the political history is projects a reconfiguration process which is truly amazing in that it is gradually unmasking the lie of ethnicity as a serious driver of national instability whatever it means. Given that in Nigeria questions are not asked of seating and previous administration performance, anything goes. The unserious and meandering attempt to fix the economy has resulted in a minor unavoidable consequence. What elites do in government covertly is seeing the light of day; of course no serious person expects prosecution nay conviction in a court of law.

However the expose of very senior officials from various ethnic nations allegedly involved in misappropriating national budget at the Federal level is instructive. The former National Security Adviser to President Goodluck Jonathan (Ijaw), Alhaji Sambo Dasuki (Hausa/Fulani) is alleged to have mislaid and misused billions of naira. Parallel recipients of misappropriated Federal funds include Chief Olu Falae (Yoruba), Alhaji Yankassi (Hausa), Dr Ray Dokpesi (minority), Chief Tony Anineh (Edo State minority), Mr Nduka Obaigbena (?)and many others.

There are tens and probably hundred of names from various ethnic nations to be made public from various allegations not just from the immediate past administration but from previous administrations if need be. Despite that this is an exercise in exploration, the immediate impact should be on the relationship ethnicity plays. The underlying pattern is the interlocking relationship of the privileged elite across ethnic nations rather than on weak correlation between ethnicity and national instability.

Summary

There is little to be expected from the current administration in terms of using legal means to meet the peoples’ expectation. This is not based on doubting its credibility and ability rather in the face of long complex process of national destruction, rather an admission that coherence and pace of policy implementation time is limited, average 6 months per policy a la Federal Cabinet selection. However evidence is mounting for those who regard Nigeria as their origin to start reconfiguring their erstwhile political educational foundation. It is crucial for them to start reconscientising their worldviews that other ethnic peoples are not the enemy, that conclusion is and has always been false.