Summary of Infantile Conclusions of National Economy Nigeria-Speak

Introduction

All of a sudden national media is collectively pouring out of the various voices of pseudo-reason on the state of the national economy as if anything radical is taking place. Nevertheless there is an overdrive in warning about it in the similar manner elites shout on the ‘indivisibility of one Nigeria’ while all along dividing it by proxy. Now everyone with microphone is nothing short of a Nobel Laureate in Economics waxing lyrical on macro side of the sun at one time and forgetting the meat of the story all the time before and after. So what is missing? Have a ride on the short summary below.

A State devoid of State

There are 2 main cohorts in the population found within the territory called Nigeria; the silent victims-majority across all ethnic nations and the loud minority elite interlocking in a powerful network across all ethnic nations. The majority have watched national events since 1914 and concluded that watching is not a bad trait. In a twist of fate watching is appropriated as a positive variable on quality of life for this group. They diligently watch the elite eviscerate everything a state should be in the last 3 generations which only produced confusion, waste, malfeasance and death. Therefore they cannot be deceived into accepting that the economy should be robust in confusion lighted by controlled demolition of state structures. Where is the State in Nigeria?

Denial of History

One of the highest achievements of the loud minority is the elimination of history and History from national consciousness. Even before 24-hours news arrived to decapitate attention span and thinking, the dogma of ahistoricity was instituted with seamlessness that an average majority can only in silence seek his/her roots beyond the 2^nd generation. The drowning on his/her soul on technical secular education dehumanised his essence to the level of immediate sensory perception devoid of context. He/she is free to condemn those who came before without and against reason while evidence piles for consumption.

No, it is not validated by the North. No Dr Kenneth Dike, the foremost economist historian and his like count for nothing. Even as the last blocks of neoliberal edifice successfully managed by Chinese communists totters, he/she refuses to recall the wisdom of the past. If you don’t know yesterday/origin, how can tomorrow/destination be navigable? If such journey were Nigerian economy? What goes up comes down and up again. Remember Shagari administration? How much did crude oil sell under his watch? If you care check it out!

Consumption without Production (Financialisation)

First of all there is no electricity and by the way the refineries are condemned for sale. Solar energy is toy on serious development. For the past 40 years Nigeria has been selling crude oil and other unaccounted national resources, spend the income on anything money can buy including imported toothpicks. Yes, General Gowon (Syndrome) unleashed this demon that refuses to leave the hall called Nigeria. For all the noise, policy documents, implementation initiatives and prostitution for foreign investment; production is minus. 

Even money is exported to foreign banks and the other nations’ wastes are imported for show. And you are asking why the economy has tanked? Toxic waste was once imported into Nigeria with bill of lading to boot and cleared at a port near either Warri or Sapele. No, it is not CBN, independent or not whatever it means! If you don’t produce and don’t save; surely after the rain comes the sun or vice versa.

Unaccounted Accumulation not Resource Scarcity

When the current administration blamed the preceding one for all the ills and wrongs of the country, you wonder if Nigeria has been under former President since 1960. National power has changed hands between elites with and without uniform. National accountability is anathema in Nigeria, the tradition has taken root and to uproot it will take more than singing in one’s evening of life. If there was a government(s) that paid attention to economic accountability, it expired in 1966.

So crude oil can sell for any price by the way the selling price is not fixed or determined in Nigeria or by Nigerians. They can sell it in Naira which is even splendid at least there will be no temptation to print money or prop it up with another paper called US dollar. Unsold volumes remain underground for another day. Until sold crude oil receipts are audited and accounted for let every trap simply shut its dignity on current diving prices.  

Ignorance of Geopolitics

Who is Nigeria’s Foreign Minister? Until the economy improves and domestic arena takes shape!

While we wait for answer to the above question to filter in, the last few months have displayed an administration that deliberated extricates itself from real global geopolitical reconfiguration. The visit to US, attendance of G7 summit and other western diplomatic soup kitchens all point to the same door; Washington DC. There are other parts of the world and other serious players too. Unreconstructed western-centricity is disastrous in foreign policy as Malaysia showed in the 1990s.

Few warning signs were ringing. US recalibrated her position on Nigeria by stopping crude oil imports. Buyers are customers and customer is king but Abuja can only swallow likes and dislikes given her by Washington DC. In addition US under an ‘African-American’ showed real Africa policy in Libya and Egypt, and what happened to terrorism? Any lessons or do you read only democracy while others see naked power? Is Nigeria not threatened?

OPEC ceased to exist with the passing of Venezuela’s Commandante Hugo Chavez and retirement of Iran’s Dr Mahmoud Ahmedinajad. Next Saudi Arabia launched is geopolitical offensive in 2015 with overproduction phalanx and continues the policy till date. The dividend is in the crystal ball. The icing on the cake is her all-out offensive on Yemen; surely Riyadh can fight on many fronts. Any lesson for Abuja?

Lastly, we warned about potential impacts of a successful conclusion of Iran – P5+1 nuclear negotiation. There were no takers in Abuja. Tehran is singing for snatching a deal from Washington DC without paying in war blood, Havana did the same. Any lesson for Abuja or Nigerians? Crude oil price will dive into single digit before stabilising. OPEC may go, Yemeni conflict ceases and new contracting quota system subsists for crude oil price to go north.

Conclusion

Crude oil glut and price depression have their time. Many responsible countries lack crude oil and care more for crude oil exporter's revenue (legal and illegal). Nigerians, please wake up.

Nigeria Pay Salaries and Pensions (On Time and Regularly)

Introduction

The change of guard at the helm of national affairs following 2015 presidential election initially and naturally generated loads of expectations and enthusiasm for positive outcomes probably in the long rather than in the short term. As the dust of expectation settles it is becoming apparent that business as usual in the negation of basic activities of a population is consolidated. In short the regressive state of salary and pension payments has continued. This ugly practice must stop.

Confusion Incorporated

It started with promises without inside experience. Then once inside all economic problems and undiscovered information were blamed on the immediate past administration. The ongoing trend is belated broadcasting of alleged national thievery by elites (associated only with the previous administration) which is no news until a conviction is secured with time in jail to boot. In the background it took 6 months to get the national cabinet in order while experience of abuse of processes continued infinitum. Such a package of actions for an incoming administration is rich in significance.

Money Matters of the Commons

What is evident is that for a very long time probably starting from the inception of post-Nigeria-Biafra War Gowon Syndrome i.e. the issue is not how much money you but how to spend it. Most of the commons employed by the state at the federal, state and local levels constitute the main lifelines to most of the population. They are not your so-called elite and big shots with powerful connection to enter CBN under instruction from above for bags of Ghana-must-go of Naira or any foreign denomination of choice. These are common men and women with families to feed, rents to pay, responsibilities to deliver, services and succour to provide and expectations to meet. There are credits to cover, arrears to drawdown and debts to clear.

Sadly month end no longer has its known meaning. Month end is now an unending long rolling temporal plane generating only pain, anger, frustration and death. Many have died from preventable and aggravated illness due to non-payment and or delayed payment of due salary/pension. Sure the state has turned a crafty killer of her won employees! Why should a village, community, town or city thrive when cash flow is unstable? Why should small business grow when the log book is filled with customer debt? The customers are cousins, friends, kinsmen, in-laws and neighbours.

Grand Indicator

Resolving salary and pension payment should have been the first assignment by the current administration.

The government must stop these malicious and premeditated attacks on unprotected citizens. Public employees of all levels must be paid monthly and on time. While some dream of volume of electricity, GDP, reserve and crude oil price as indicator of national status at a time; the named indicators and more are useless when a state cannot ensure payment of salaries/pension in its territory in peace time. This is even complicated by opening of one’s books to intruders like IMF harking back to the confusion mentioned earlier.

We are waiting for the President to vigorously advance this matter immediately making example of APC states and local government. The problem is that this issue may take few tranches of 6 months or rather be a tropical surprise. Enough of gnashing of teeth by public servants and senior citizens imposed on them by their elected. So much for democracy! 

Corruption Incorporated in Evolutionary Geography of Nigeria

Introduction

The so-called nascent democracy of Nigeria since 1999 is not only a watershed in political geography but provides important threshold on the question of her viability as a state. As the majority carry on with their victimhood, the elite have sustained and extended their grip on flagrant abuse of natural resources in the period. The ongoing exposure and dissemination of corruption allegations at the Federal level by the current administration opens a new phase conclusively rubbishing ethnicity as the primary cause of instability. This is the attention of this piece.

Multi-Ethnic Hierarchical State

Nigeria’s political geography was crafted by the British Empire within a strategic (inter-generational) geopolitical framework driven by economic expediency. This design was installed in 1914 and remains to all intents and purposes consolidated to the present day. Within the framework which remains unquestioned by subsequent generations of Nigerian elite and intelligentsia, the peoples of the territory were balkanised between majority and minority with the minorities nested in a regressive hierarchical structure to the majorities.

On this ill-fated diet of political potion many Nigerians have been fed permitting majority of them to appropriate pathological ethnic superiority over the rest. However underneath such unquestioned psychological template is the usual divide and rule installed by Pax Britannica. Sadly the elite including the current President and administration will not question it. Nevertheless the validity and veracity of this thesis remains undermined and inconclusive for many reasons since 1960.

There is no solid evidence that majorities of each ethnic nation benefit from abuse of national resources by any of their members.  What obtained and continues is the elevation and securitisation of elites for a single reason that transfer of power at Independence simply consolidated exclusion of the commons. Democracy in an essence is a mask/vehicle for controlling majority by a few. Unfortunately many citizens have died and properties lost in the ignorant zeal towards implementing ethnic superiority.

National Spread of Corruption Defying Ethnicity

The current phase of the political history is projects a reconfiguration process which is truly amazing in that it is gradually unmasking the lie of ethnicity as a serious driver of national instability whatever it means. Given that in Nigeria questions are not asked of seating and previous administration performance, anything goes. The unserious and meandering attempt to fix the economy has resulted in a minor unavoidable consequence. What elites do in government covertly is seeing the light of day; of course no serious person expects prosecution nay conviction in a court of law.

However the expose of very senior officials from various ethnic nations allegedly involved in misappropriating national budget at the Federal level is instructive. The former National Security Adviser to President Goodluck Jonathan (Ijaw), Alhaji Sambo Dasuki (Hausa/Fulani) is alleged to have mislaid and misused billions of naira. Parallel recipients of misappropriated Federal funds include Chief Olu Falae (Yoruba), Alhaji Yankassi (Hausa), Dr Ray Dokpesi (minority), Chief Tony Anineh (Edo State minority), Mr Nduka Obaigbena (?)and many others.

There are tens and probably hundred of names from various ethnic nations to be made public from various allegations not just from the immediate past administration but from previous administrations if need be. Despite that this is an exercise in exploration, the immediate impact should be on the relationship ethnicity plays. The underlying pattern is the interlocking relationship of the privileged elite across ethnic nations rather than on weak correlation between ethnicity and national instability.

Summary

There is little to be expected from the current administration in terms of using legal means to meet the peoples’ expectation. This is not based on doubting its credibility and ability rather in the face of long complex process of national destruction, rather an admission that coherence and pace of policy implementation time is limited, average 6 months per policy a la Federal Cabinet selection. However evidence is mounting for those who regard Nigeria as their origin to start reconfiguring their erstwhile political educational foundation. It is crucial for them to start reconscientising their worldviews that other ethnic peoples are not the enemy, that conclusion is and has always been false.  

Condensed Summary of Igbo Agitation Features in Nigeria State

Introduction

In view of the latest outpourings of political distress in Nigeria, the subterranean Igbo Question has risen to the surface once again of course as a continuum rather than a new thrust. Sadly this question is competing for attention in a state noxiously bedevilled with regression, inter-generational poverty of leadership and distinct evisceration of history. It is the view of this piece to focus attention on the features that concentrated post Nigeria-Biafra War. It includes features with economic, sociological, political and geopolitical imports.

Geography

Ndigbo originate and concentrate in Southern Nigeria. There is no other origin outside the territory of Nigeria. Within the territory of Nigeria the nearest proximity to international boundary is over 100km and there is no other competing Igbo concentration found in Cameroun. The geopolitical implication is that Nigeria is spared the grief of irredentism which usually emerges with the support of the neighbouring state in the form of military logistics, communication controls, and economic sabotage as part of destabilisation of internal affairs. There is no evidence that Ndigbo in the post Nigeria-Biafra War have seriously exploited the possibility of seeking the support of Cameroun towards a larger political footprint in Nigeria.

Population-wise Ndigbo have been secure within their borders and have refrained from engaging in conflicts with neighbours and apparatus of the State in pursuit of their grievances. The nucleus of Igbo nation remains a bastion of ‘stability’ despite the congruency of economic, social and political deficit of nearly 50 years at both state and federal levels. Of course the absence of conflict doesn’t imply peace, nevertheless organised deployment of violence is lacking in Ndigbo agitations post Nigeria-Biafra War. This is significant those ignored by Nigeria State!

Non-Homogeneity

It is important to stress that media distorted attention on the issue focusing on opinion of elites who naturally are non-Nigerians a la Shugaba (i.e. they were born outside or in pre-independent Nigeria) is erroneous. The current crop of political elite including their Igbo interlocking section are morally reprehensible, lack merit and are dishonestly to discuss or categorise events in Nigeria. This sociological gap exists in Igboland where a dichotomy is apparent between elite and non-elites, pre-Nigerians and post-Nigerians.

Most of Ndigbo consist of post Nigeria-Biafra War young men and young women who never observed, received and confirmed any positive feature or benefit from state i.e. Nigeria. This group have read, analysed, contested and contrasted their observations with expectations only to find Nigeria wanting. Though true Nigerians, they have never felt truly Nigerians since they haven’t received a kobo of Nigeria excess endowment and profits.

The result is the emergence of new leadership class and underclass citizens from among the commons who are in touch with the people. These leaders despite their flaws do not have rented crowds and among the crowds are significant numbers of young women. These men and women have watched their lives reduced in value, observed humiliation of their parents who invested everything to raise them with minimal support of the state. These young people are not harking back to the past rather are fed by the fusion of evident past neglect and humiliations into the present while the elite in their superlative ignorant continue to rant on the indivisibility of Nigeria.

Most if not all of the young Igbo people never received free medical care, never attended education with state support, never observed or used viable public infrastructure and cannot testify to invitation to benefit from state policy. All their lives have been struggle, their parents’ salaries remain unpaid or payments delayed which matured into unpaid/delayed pensions. The pre-Nigerian leaders lack legitimacy, are devoid of trust and are apparently foreign to Ndigbo. The generation gap is unquestionable!

Absence of Nuance

One of the main problems with both elite and the new Igbo leaders is the absence of nuance in poor arguments. The elite concentrate in limited and restricted language of colonial mentality and tired cold war recycled mantra focused on state uniqueness as if a state can exist without a people. Their focus is divinisation of an irresponsible and unaccountable state. They decline responsibility and apparent hate the word responsibility. For them the victim is the cause of his/her victimhood. Blame a stolen item for being stolen!

Their limited diatribes and cheap talks have no room for debate and contextual analyses; they are almost anti-history and allergic to sociology. Surprisingly they are disconnected from emerging languages of positive change and are deft in their refusal to create, invent and discover to sustain their status. The elites are locked insecurely in their own contradictions and in the past. They are allergic to the future, a future where their privileges are challenged and if need be lost.

On the contrary the new emerging leadership in the face of rich resources for agitation seem ‘lite’ on details and almost irrelevant to population segmentation even in the age of network communication. Yes, there is a case for marginalisation; yes, there is a case for injustice; yes, there is a case for discrimination. Firewood and oxygen remain in abundance but there is poverty of clear articulation of purpose, absence of thought-out context and lack of strategic initiative. However and credit to them, the new leadership have burst the bubble of contradiction imposed by the elite and have appropriated it in the present towards a future that empowers and benefits the underclass.

To cap it all there is no respect or appreciation for the written word, no publications, no documents and no references.  On cannot seek the dividend of history and its implication without the written word especially when everyone has mobile phones. There is no evidence that IPOB and MASSOB among others have insightful content and publications on their portals. How do they enlighten their members and attract new members to their cause? How will members be sustained intellectually towards strategic renewal of underpinning ideas? You cannot fight a war of ideas without the written word.

This state of affairs allows the elite and their media to appropriate the argument and mislabel agitation as regressive, miscreants, low-life, misguided, anti-state and counter-productive. They use language that dismiss, diminish, dehumanise and disembody protesters/agitators in the attempt to rob them of their existence, their dignity and their message. This is taking place where the state (with evidence) drags its feet in arraigning suspected elites for allegedly stealing billions of Naira.

Organisational Disarray

It is quite bizarre for Ndigbo to focus their minds on making political headway in their case without solid organisation. While it is historically factual that so far Ndigbo’s political evolution never reached the level of consolidation toward an empire or strong political collective, it is not beyond the current initiative to rethink. There is a dominant intellectual error that refuses to dig deeper for centralisation, that refused to see convergence between tendency towards individualism and centralisation. Contemporary Ndigbo celebrate fragmentation!

No people can reach the level of political seriousness without unity backed by centralisation. No state even Switzerland with her pastiche of cantons can be powerful without centralisation. States among comity of nations in the world with voice beyond their horizon are united, centralised, viable, strategically inclined and resourceful regardless of size, population, location and endowed resources. Review empires from Egypt through United States; their strengths come from among other points centralised political organisation. Edo Empire reached her zenith including geopolitical exploits with Portuguese Empire in the 15^th century. Yoruba Empire, Ghana, Mali and Songhai Empire flourished with centralised political structures.

The Igbo political history since Nigeria-Biafra War is dominated by this existential struggle against the benefits of centralisation. Ndigbo cannot get their due in Nigeria without internal cohesion, without viable single-voiced political structure and without a formidable and respectable organisation speaking with one voice.

The strain of disorganisation and fragmentation rather than de-centralisation is preponderant from the village level. Many Igbo villages/towns lack viable political leadership rather may contain competing platforms. Many so-called family meetings abroad or in Diasporas suffer from the same malaise. There is lack of vision, lack of patience, lack of knowledge and lack of strategic depth and at the core there is a lack of identity. Since the erosion of military rule and four-yearly selection of satraps, Igbo State governors continue to lack viable forum for serious engagement on internal issues but will be the first to appropriate ‘marginalisation’ despite their deliberate regressive leaderships.

No matter how smart, intellectual, economic and industrious a person or people are; without translating these qualities as a collective into formidable political capital through a viable organisation all is waste. This is the plain truth with Ndigbo who for the most part refuse to acknowledge it to their peril. No serious political contender is without a viable, strategic and long-term machine sustained by committed men and women. No political position and concession is gained or extracted without a struggle and the vehicle is formidable, cohesive and unity political platform.

No amount of greed, short-term vision, stolen resources, cunning and intellectual prowess can succeed without clear cohesion of ideas and minds, united to the cause and run professionally over time for a strategic objective. On this point Ndigbo have continuously displayed stupidity and regressive blindness and the impact is apparent at all levels. Politics maybe war by other means, those who want to fight it successfully must start with accepting that a viable, sustainable and strategic political organisation is inevitable.

Lack of Diplomatic Touch

Following from the previous point some of the larger viable Igbo groups having overcome the cohesion, organisation and structural issue still lack viable purpose. This is very apparent in the Diasporas although one must admit that culturally most members of these groups and some of the leadership have no grounded foundation. They have limited social, intellectual, administrative and strategic worldviews. There is strong inability to channel their potentials to exploit political opportunities of host countries for strategic geopolitical benefits. There is poverty of geopolitics and international relations.

As a result of this development among others, most of these ethnic pressure groups remain disconnected from the political currents of their host countries despite holding their passports/citizenship. There is no evidence that US based World Igbo Congress (WIC) has any serious lobby or presence in Washington DC. There is no evidence of its efforts to influence US policy or strategy implementation on Nigeria. Despite the superlative qualities of individual members, many of them have no and do not seek viable relationship with senior members of US regime at least for advance of Igbo cause in Nigeria.

These groups have no serious political and geopolitical capital; hence they are lightweight and irrelevant. The same counts for similar groups in London, Brussels, Moscow and Beijing. A multi-pronged approach requires formidable internal offensive complemented with foreign operations focused on the main global geopolitical contenders in their capitals as listed above. Non-state and extra-state diplomacy is a feature of geopolitics and international political reality. This is the reason no serious analyst or observer will consider the purported search for independence by sections of Ndigbo as credible. The time new countries emerge from the body of existing ones have gone. Current and emerging geopolitical realities are unfavourable as South Sudan is exemplified.

Summary

The few notes above crystallise fundamental sign posts in the existent struggle for agitators and also for the Nigeria State. The issue is a battle of ideas of which both parties seem to be poorly trained or are deliberately misguided in pursuit of what they deem just. The battle of ideas cannot be won on decapitation of reason, or freezing of idealistic/ideological outflow or even regressing to the past. The present calls for revaluation and re-contextualisation and reframing of the issue including articulating new framework and inventing new accessible language disseminated in the written word. 

Toxic Mix of Geopolitics, Media & Full-Spectrum Dominance of the World Summarised

The world is quite old, its essence and resources always coveted by a few who understood it, its benefits violently ascribed by nefarious designs and its power grabbed by a few in the name of many under any guise or excuse. With basic tools like the Media minds and conscience are skewed, perforated, dismembered, overwhelmed with lies and finally subdued. Yes, the power elite will unleash geopolitical designs through crude geostrategic policies to attain their goals and later fail for new hands to repeat their errors down the generations.

Attention to history will prevent each generation from falling into making stupidity a new invention. Even stupidity is ancient in form and demeanour.

Yawning Gaps in Nigeria’s Harsh Response to Secessionists’ Protests – Pointers

Introduction

The latest development in Nigeria is a new addition to a list of pressure groups seeking to redefine the internal contours of the country’s configuration and operations. In summary they are part of the silent majority who have been short-changed by failed leadership since deformed independence in 1960. They have come in various shades and forms, some violent others non-violent; nevertheless Federal Government response is expected and usual. Below exhibit a number of gaps in Nigeria’s statecraft kit towards her questionable responses.

Missing in the Toolkit

Allergy to History – whether it is the privileged few condemning protests or government officials shouting of threats to unity, what is clearly evident is palpable hatred of history. The bold efforts to challenge power and speak to power by the commons are unexpected due to the fact in the eyes of government elite nothing has changed. Several administrations and maladministration since 1960, the function of time seem alien to Abuja in recognising huge gaps in performance for nearly 2 generations. For a state her citizens always look to the heaven for terrestrial solutions, power elite refuse to address historical grievances as if history is irrelevant. Those who refuse to learn from history only repeat its mistakes and this is what the current administration is facing.

Anathema of Geopolitics – One of the main features of the administration is the preponderance of colonial mentality and cold war mindset. Most of the worldview and curiosity is laced in US-led thinking which incorrigibly refused to countenance reconfigured global power equilibrium. Other players despite limited military capabilities have nevertheless spearheaded multi-polar dimension towards international issues. This absence of nuanced view of global geopolitics and international relations forced Abuja into unjustified errors. You only need to think of South Sudan and ask how possible is it for new countries to emerge today without unanimous consent of Washington DC, Moscow and Beijing. Syria is the hotspot, not Nigeria!

Lack of Strategic Depth – Instability and insecurity prevents clear thinking and determined implementation of concrete policies. Despite all the huge funding and various administrations it is evident that Abuja has no sustainable structures/understanding to various issues in different parts of the country. With massive waste of human resources, idling of specialists and misused of time; unsurprisingly knee-jerk reaction become the main tool of governance. Thus threat to national unity becomes political football of questionable characters.

Abuse of Bureaucracy – The recent issue highlight shameful case of a besieged country. There is a geopolitical insertion called Boko Haram which to all intents and purposes remains a feature holding territory, it is very rich for Abuja to shout threat to national unity on non-violent pressure groups. Disappearance of full weight of law on alleged corrupt politicians contrasting with rushing of innocent plebes to the same compromised judiciary to protect One Nigeria is laughable.  Department of State Security that should have been deployed at the first instance to investigate veracity and composition of group is currently misused as bodyguards posted on social media.

Damn Public Opinion – Even China pays close attention to citizens’ attention and concerns. Hatred of history, lack of institutional capacity and lack of strategic depth including taking citizens for granted allow for errors in governance. These protests do not emerge out of the blue and actually take time to set out. Even though each group take calculated risk, they are all united in their certainty that Abuja will respond with ferocity. In the age of mass media and highly network interaction, young protesters are made heroes not by government harsh response rather by their clear-headed out-classing and out-maneuvering of government. Government is embarrassed and unfortunately forced to play catch up.

Summary

Running a country or state is not eating cake but those who fight to rule need to show class and mettle in the face of adversity. Even modest leaders are known to surround themselves with class acts and tested performers to enable clear policies, monitored implementation and display real results. Unfortunately Nigerians are no longer in the mood to wait for excuses, delays and go-slows. They want positive action now!

Nigeria’s Global-Facing Domestic Policy Blunders

Introduction

It is no longer a testimony that Nigeria’s post-election Cabinet selection takes as long as 6 months. Abuja has moved into a deliberate and questionable handling of decisions despite resounding goodwill of voters. With little concrete initiatives and or nuanced policies, Abuja is compelled only to talk devoid of accompanying walk. This atmosphere of stationary leadership is generating sustainable uncertainty, confusion drawn from inexperience and blunders with serious domestic and international consequences. Two of these decisions are discussed.

Policy Desert

The first 6 months of President Muhammadu Buhari has arrived and is going for good with serious gaps on all levels. The most evident part of these gaps is the dearth of fresh policies to back up rhetoric. For a very weak country with long record of poor administration and lack of continuity, there is expectation of immediate assault on problems and issues through initiation of new realistic policies to address specific targets.

Unfortunately a government devoid of working Cabinet failed the test and this is unhealthy development. More so the impression is glowing negatively mistakenly pointing hands on hapless civil servants. The administration is displaying poor grasp of the situation, lack of attention to scope of problems and disconnection with time. Above all there is general apathy towards policy to the point of allergic reaction with 3 years and 6 month left for the administration.

Wastes Opportunities

There is a conclusion that strong states infrequently attack their citizens while focusing most attention on other states. For weak states resources are mostly invested in attacking their own citizens, hence their foreign policy is a masked regressive domestic policy. In the case of Nigeria 2 recent decisions by Abuja suggest a gloomy state of affairs with negative implications. It is very clear that an unstable and uncertain state cannot run a credible foreign policy, this is the case for Nigeria. Opportunities are waste while confusions are made out of inconsequential subjects.

In such situation where points of decision-making are blurred and responsibility is nearly absent, lines of decision communication are fed to hapless law-enforcement agents to execute without proper consideration, discussion and reviews. Issues that deserve to be cascaded for Cabinet Meeting deliberation are demoted to a single individual probably without experience, exposure and qualification.

The above description fit well considering the recent impounding of an artistic bus commemorating the 20^th anniversary of Mr Ken Saro-Wiwa execution. The reason for impounding the bus and hijacking the 20^th anniversary by Nigeria State remain nebulous and suspect. If proper decision-making structures were in place at the Federal Level and the issue was raised under national security flag, public diplomacy and foreign policy implications could have been raised. Questions on cost-benefit to Nigeria foreign image would have been reviewed with input from foreign ministry and independent experts.

In view of the fact that the execution of Mr Ken Saro-Wiwa brought weighty attention to Abuja from abroad with various global stakeholders especially in the West continuing to raise the issue as a black mark on the country, a nuanced decision would have been taken. Ignorance of public opinion is dangerous.

The main questions would follow related lines; how will the anniversary be exploited by foreign partners and domestic interests? What is the implication for domestic instability? What are the medium and long term impacts? Mind you all things being equal there are feeds from both foreign and domestic arms of national intelligence agencies, and if necessary Nigerian missions abroad. The security agencies should be able to provide comprehensive risk report with associated geographical disaggregation of potential hotspots and temporal variables.

In the absence of these processes, a decision by an individual or a cabal was rushed out with a single result of public relations disaster further diminishing an already discredited barometer. Nigeria is made to reconfirm the status-quo of being weak, unstable, uncertain and regressive in the comity of nations. Such situation was avoidable and unnecessary.

The next blunder is the arrest of a Nigerian, Mr Nnamdi Kanu, for being behind illegal radio broadcasts advocating an alternative geopolitical entity. What is interesting with the issue is the currency of Boko Haram continuing offensive against positions, holding territories and killing Nigeria with weak albeit limited counter-attack from Abuja. Another background is the hyped corruption narrative with all the suspects around and continuing to engage with their trade unmolested, unquestioned and not arrested. From ethnic and class dimensions, the earlier argument on weak states is reinforced.

This young man has no standing army, did not launch any violent campaign, has no evidence of embezzling public resources/funds and probably never served or held any public/political position. All he has is his ideas, words, sentences and medium for wider dissemination. For Abuja to fall into the school-boy trap of expressing being threatened & acting on it is complacent and worrying. Similar description could be made for Mr Ken Saro-Wiwa's 20th anniversary bus. Those who allegedly threaten Nigeria daily concentrate within the President's vicinity.

This blunder reflects similar display of ignorance, celebration of incompetence and inexperience. Bearing in mind the recent past election outcomes, the long running ethnic dimension of politics, the touchy relationship between Nigerian State and the Igbo Nation; a nuanced approach would have been deployed in the handling of such a sensitive issue.

In a sophisticated and capable administration, proactive ‘soft’ solutions would have been used to counter then broadcasting output. The first item on the list would have been to make an emergency working visit to the Igbo Nation for at least a week from where important national decisions are signed off. In view of the economic situation and corruption, announcement of fresh policy input on employment and job creation including tangible short-term benefits would have stolen the thunder from the opposite. Imposing sanctions on seating governors to respond immediately & professionally with realistic implementations of viable actions is not beyond Abuja.

Arresting the young man only confirmed his view that Abuja is irrational, weak, disorganised and inefficient. His continued detention elevated his status within and beyond the country giving his case a wider platform than he could have imagined. Even the UK government was embarrassed and compelled to deny any alleged contribution and support. Quite a diplomatic feat for the arrested fella! Other western capitals and their chancelleries in Nigeria must have taken note of this serious development.

Young people of Igbo Nation and from other nations in Nigeria are watching with interest for potential replay if suitable. There is no doubt that the arrested young man posed no security risk to the Nigerian State. He even offered an important platform for State governors of the Igbo Nation to rise up to the challenge and respond with evidence of Nigeria’s viability through provision of sustainable employment, accessible & quality public service and efficient public infrastructure. Another avoidable waste!

Conclusion

In the final analysis the current administration is punching above its weight and has displayed deep and worrying trend. These 2 examples highlight incompetence, lack of focus, incoherence understanding of political power and weak view of due process. As time progresses with these kinds of decisions from Abuja, most of the population will simply switch off and coast along for the next election in 2019.