A Republic of Violence

Introduction

While every state has its own peculiar brand of violence, it is not an excuse to suggest high rate of extra-judicial violence is the norm.  Nevertheless some states and spaces within states seem to possess high levels of state sanctioned extra-judicial violence and Nigeria in the last decade has moved into this category. I use the term ‘state sanctioned’ to extend the context of permission by states’ omission or commission that encourages such extra-judicial violence. Of course the context is amplified by the contradiction between state’s condemnation and inability to comprehensively deal with it.

Pockets all Along

Nigeria’s history from its artificial creation in 1914 to its ‘independence’ has been littered with pastiches of violent flare ups here and there. The typology not only presents associations with imperial impositions of the British, they also express uncomfortable outcomes & resistance of the impositions in the socio-economic and political space. On the other hand, other violence expresses ongoing and unsettled conflicts between communities surrounding their economic situations.  Nevertheless the melding of many peoples by force and without their consent opened up loaded opportunities with expected consequences as years wore on.

Examples can be found in 1929 Aba women Riot were the British State killed tens of unarmed women protesting imposition of tax. Yes, the British ordered their death from bullets of trigger hand police force. Similar incidents are scattered around the country as examples of gallant resistance against imperialism and anti-people accumulation.

Politics by Other Means

As British pacification sustained, space and time opened up for divide-and-conquer. That time shock & awe was still in infancy. The machine of London could only get its hands on Nigerian resources by distracting the peoples. In addition to misreading of history by pre-independence political leaders, some of them resorted to engaging in unbridled violence, pogrom and genocide to advance their goals. Some ethnic nations have singularly borne the brunt of violence with impunity and with unsuccessful recourse to justice. Introduction of religion into the toxic mix exacerbated. In this guise Islamic religion in the North Central and other geopolitical zone of Northern Nigeria found vent for extra-judicial industrial killings. This pattern and trend has continued to the present day. The unique signature is its extra-judicial component.

Clash of the Titans

By the time ‘independence’ arrived with none of major leaders clear about its effect and consequences, the crevices were already wide open for conflicts confirming that the independence space is disconnected to the real people as it is disconnected from the unreal and posturing leaders. The erstwhile Western Region became a battle ground between a giant who taught himself the only one in the jungle, and a new giant who taught differently. The difference was expressed through violence and the entire space turned into a hot bed of extra-judicial violence and high flavoured impotence of the state.

The turn of events reached its apogee in 1966 when the military struck for power despite its immaturity, uncertainty and romanticism about real power. Unfortunately her immature leaders played a poor hand and only replaced one form of violence with another while at the same time running as un-appointed umpire of pogroms, massacres and genocides.

Nigeria-Biafra War

The political confusion resident in Nigeria concentrated over time and space in the abuse and sustained abuse of resources in the genocide called Nigeria-Biafra War. In retrospect the war was lost before it began because the bulk of the victim populations have been wasted by systematic genocide & massacres in various parts of Nigeria and lack of vision of leaders ready to prosecute the war. Even after the war, it turned into a sad footnote of which no one care or worries to even seriously obtain its strategic lessons. 

Nowhere is genuine discussion directed towards deeper understanding of reasons behind the war, or debate to avoid a repeat or even a review of how to move forward through appreciating the weight of the past. Rather a litany of stupidities took hold including but not limited to the exuberance of victory by the victor over the vanquished, poverty of absence of genuine reconstruction, baseless reconfiguration of political architecture devoid of peoples input and lastly poisonous attention to Gowon Syndrome i.e. 'rightful' waste of national resources rather saving.

‘Nascent’ Democracy

As the military made a bargained exit from the political space, violence devoid of war received a new lease of life. With institutional breakdown, rule of law collapse, astronomical corruption and higher investment in failing state status; restrained violence opened up and started dispersing to wider areas around the country with expected consequences. Extra-judicial violence has become a huge industry in Nigeria that limited effort is geared towards containing it. One day it was MEND who succeeded in their strategic objective and ‘gracefully’ bowed out of the scene. What happened to their victims? Any legal redress and legal compensation for the victims? No, MEND was compensation with proceeds from oil ‘flowing with pressure’ from under their land/water.

In the mayhem, Boko Haram entered with a big bang and refused to leave the scene rather is consciously emboldened with its success of incessant killings and abductions. Boko Haram has turned into an untouchable state of its own not only trading on its chances rather on the vulnerability of the Nigerian state. They have finally exposed the folly called Nigeria crippled on every turn, with a military force that can barely match a conglomerate of aggressive snails and an intelligence service that fluctuates between comatose and death.

New Normal

Hardly a day passes in Nigeria without a report of violence from bombs and or unidentified gunpersons. With no recourse to justice and in the absence of state protection, extra-judicial violence has arrived to stay in Nigeria not only as companion but a stakeholder with clout and influence. One can even surmise that pretending organs of the state unashamedly compete with Boko Haram in the pedigree of extra-judicial violence on the innocent. Sadly, this is not a unique experience. No state can sustain such undeclared war that consumes its peoples and be successful without coordinated confrontation towards eradication.  It may come to her end or it may not!  

Emerging geographies in Post-Sadaam Iraq

Introduction

The current phase of non-state violence concentrated in the northern part of Iraq didn’t present any new scenario divorced from predicted consequences of US invasion and occupation of the country.  However, some observers and analysts on the region seem to accept the worn out mantra akin to stability is the goal of invasion and occupation. On the contrary, it is the thesis of this piece that Sadaam’s Iraq has ceased to exist rather new geographies are emerging as consequences which will in time stabilise depending on a number of factors.

Shock & Awe

States are no different from products on a shop floor, they have both manufactured and expiry dates. The day in 2003 United States unleashed her menacing weapons of military destruction signalled the end of the Iraq as a cohesive and viable state. All the excuse of ‘freedom’ and ‘democracy’ are fig leaves of propaganda which fooled many observers. Dismantling of Iraq institutions including the armed forces opened the space for new non-state players from within and beyond to fill the gap with an indeterminate timeline. In the absence of coherent Shock & Awe and Divide-and-Conquer policy it was only a matter of time before the social, cultural, political and economic consequences start to unravel.

While it is indisputable that US ‘immobile warship’ in the region, Israel, benefitted; the prediction of having a single beneficiary from this debacle was foolhardy. Naturally without firing a shot Tehran’s influence elevated in the new Iraq as most representatives of the majority Shia Iraqi lived at different times in Iran.  This was a natural outcome of electoral representation based on majority a la sectarianisation. The new majority were not fooled that theirs is the usual Iraq from Basra to Mosul.  The Kurds often regarded as the biggest nation without a state gradually positioned to capture opportunities despite clear awareness of repeat of geopolitical betrayal in a tough neighbourhood.

3 Countries from 1 State

Despite genuine nostalgia and misplaced focus on nation-state system, the shifting sand of decade-long violence and instability opened an avenue to reshape alliances and realities within Iraq’s contiguous space. Among other things, the new players now striving for attention and positions are to all intent and purposes greenhorns playing for a diminished crowd faced with new complex realities. The underlying factors that empower all the players despite allegation of sectarianism in the Anglo media is the ever presence of crude oil.

In the face of the fact that nation building and institutional development takes very long, it is very rich for destroyers to give lessons in construction.  There is no evidence that democracies are constructs for advancing desires of minorities even to the point of suggesting inclusive frameworks to accommodate niggling issues. In a sense democracy in one space is dead.  So an emerging pattern of space of power has concentrated in 3 locations and these are akin to 3 distinct geopolitical spaces. There is Baghdad which is the epicentre of Shia Iraqi activism and is conterminous to most locations south of Baghdad parallel. There is sufficient crude oil to ensure its viability and sustainability. Of course calling the instigator of Shock & Awe to ‘target bomb’ rivals albeit compatriots by Baghdad exposes the complexity of negative outcomes.

From a geopolitical dimension the guiding hand of Tehran is sufficient to modify and deflect military and geopolitical encroachment on this entity. Its internal stability will be initially shaky given the high stake attention to religious affiliation exploited as raison d’être in post-Sadaam era.

In the central and northern parts of Iraq dominated by Kurds, post-1991 Gulf War no-flying zone opened the way for constructive policies of the first Kurdish state in living memory. As the most viable  and most stable/dependent of the 3 entities, politicians in the area are consolidating their grips on power and as well as meandering through the geopolitical minefield not least in the recent past sale of crude oil via Turkey with Ankara’s connivance. One must realise that Iraqi Kurdistan is landlocked and is surrounded by disparate interests and historical challenges. Kurds everywhere in the region will surely need recognition of preponderant capitals i.e. Ankara, Damascus & Tehran to express their self-determination.  Fillers on Kurdistan’s moves from these capitals maybe difficult to discern but may be not strategically accommodating. There is an absence of viable policy in Ankara on dealing effectively with latest Kurdish political maturity and its implication for Turkish Kurds. 

The swath of space around Central Iraq including its western borders with Saudi Arabia and Syria can be termed the Sunni Iraqi Heartland. This is the crucible of fast changing alliances, the space most active in dissolving the erstwhile Iraq as their geopolitical currency apparently eliminated the usual boundaries. The coalition of Sunni Iraqis as equal victims of savage sectariansation may end up being mere pawns in a high stake game. The main contradiction overhanging the existence of their armed groups is the conundrum of recognising international borders of which in Syria they are regarded as anti-Assad and supplied with weapons & materials to boot, but as they cross into Iraq they are presented as rational agencies for inclusion even possible candidates for violent overthrow in Baghdad. So in their desperation for power, they are manipulated and presented as rejecters of international boundaries while they are simultaneously injected in its buoyant narrative.

For the Sunni Iraqis who have benefited from power for nearly 2 generations, sudden expulsion from power has proven cathartic, dangerous, contestable and opprobrious.  The space will be a land-locked entity tied to the geopolitical dexterity of Riyadh. It has borne major cost of Shock & Awe with little or no institutions capable enough to guide requirements and implementation of popular will. Time will tell if the current alliance controlled by Riyadh will stand the test of time.

King Crude Oil

The short-term beneficiary of the current conflict and brazen onus towards balkanisation of Iraq are the crude oil companies. Rising oil prices stemming from the conflict has increased profits as production remain unchanged for OPEC and non-OPEC producers. However the new reality only exposes many fragile economies within and beyond the region to new costs which cannot be replaces hence over time, economic growth figures will start dipping.

In terms of viability of these new entities based on their crude oil production capacities, Iraqi Kurdistan and Shia Iraq are best placed to move into the next phases to consolidate their gains internally. Ankara may not be constrained to take advantage of Kurdistan in the short run as Erbil may have little room to manoeuvre.  Awareness of threat from Sunni Heartland and Iran may soften serious ambitions which imply clearly that Iraqi Kurdistan’s fate as mentioned earlier is tied elsewhere.

As United States overreached herself as the trigger of these developments, her credibility on many sides is seriously dented that cooperation prospects are dim. Her current demand on Baghdad i.e. for Prime Minister Maliki to resign confirms her limbo position. Moscow’s warnings and ambivalence added to Tehran’s new composure albeit suspicion has placed Washington DC is an uncomfortable position. United States is caught between serious face-saving gesture, an admission of guilt and hardening of position. For each move to be effected, a Gordian knot must be cut & pleasant surprise on the home front.

In the End

Nation-states as expressions of human political instinct in specific locations cannot be denied even in the face of wrong policies. While it is very early to suggest that wrongs have been righted and rights have been wronged, Iraq as a result of colonial intrigue rested on Sykes-Picot Accord is dead but not buried. New spatial and political realities have supplanted and dismembered erstwhile power base into 3 spatial contiguities expressing their majority populations’ dispositions. United States geopolitical machinations and power projections including military imposition have revealed limited benefit if any to its interest. Nevertheless, with no clear moves toward stability and attention spilling beyond each of these new boundaries; weapon supply, armed conflicts and violence may continue to be part of the new spatial realities for some time.  Truly, there is no easy way out.

Implications of Contrast on Latest Iraqi Complexity

Introduction

Reactions from mainstream media on the latest assault on Iraq by non-state armed group are foreseeable.  Even with unclear set of propositions, these same media outlets were at the outset justifying Iraq invasion and damning the consequences come what may. Now that it has arrived it is important to revert back to the structural historical facts that enabled this onslaught and the potential geopolitical outcomes for the neighbours and other players.

Die was Cast

Iraqi file was closed by United States before 2001. Despite lack of evidence and plausible justification, 2003 invasion of Iraq sealed her fate as a viable state and commenced retrogressive forces for her destabilisation and balkanisation. By the time the first US bombs hit Iraqi soil, this ill-fated history against reason unfolded.  One must equally consider that the road to Iraq’s ruin commenced earlier with its 1980 invasion of Iran with US understanding and support of Arab states except Syria.  Despite a wealth of knowledge on the fragile nature of the state & region, United States single-minded offensive based on false premise unleashed potent forces to replace old fault lines.

Majority of the population, who are Shia Muslims with long relationship with Iran, saw their chance to grab power. Saudi Arabia and other Arab states may have warned Washington DC against the move but one must only conjecture how such warnings were countered especially to Riyadh.  Without firing a shot Tehran extended her influence in new Iraq economically, politically, culturally and of course in the religious sphere. Tehran was very much aware of the limitations with the new prize, with fair understanding of the religious and ethnic complexity of the already fragile country.

Imposition of ‘peace’ and ‘democracy’ by force simply consolidated old wounds, open new ones and created gangrenous ones. Shia domination of Baghdad is incontestable in the new fragile dispensation; Sunnis have lost power in Iraq. Despite the ‘success’ of elections that transferred power to Shia majority, Iraq never reverted back to a viable state rather a fertile ground for non-state violence and insurgency controlled by different countries.  With Kurds effectively in charge of the north, what remains of Iraq turned into red meat zone of contest for Sunni/Shia sensibilities devoid of clear timeline.  What happened early in the week express a new phase of power reconfiguration sponsored by various countries.  It is not the speed with which the Iraqi armed forces folded is the matter, rather the central focus of attention is when those consensus form on non-existence of erstwhile Iraq.

Reconfiguration of Middle East

If there were no petroleum in Iraq US invasion and subsequent conflicts may not have taken place. Nevertheless the invasion and subsequent moves have reconfigured power bases in the Middle East to the point where current outcome presents a weakened US. At the present time, Iran has every course to maximised her opportunities while exploring how to counter the threats that are already apparent on her western borders. Yesterday, Iranian president made a bold statement before high ranking officials of his non-tolerance for instability in Iraq. The question that emerges from this point is, which Iraq? Nevertheless, Baghdad has favourable relations with Tehran with increasing cooperation and coordination on various matters of strategic interest.

Arab states continue to diminish in quantity and quality. Recent past Kuwaiti Emir's visit to Tehran is gesture that further isolates Riyadh. This spectre of diminution confirms the limits of Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic weight with United States as it not only loses leverage but failed to generate a productive foreign policy in reaction to these failures. Riyadh’s response to these developments have been counter-productive, short-sighted and isolationist.  Investing huge resources in judicial, extra-judicial and non-state actor destabilisation of other countries in the region has not brought and will not bring positive dividend. 

Israel is now isolated in her pre-eminence as the most powerful military power in the region despite the niggling potential of Hezbollah. Without firing a shot, Tel Aviv has achieved her primary objective of being the first among equals in the region which apparently frees her from serious concerns of conventional irritation from beyond her borders.  One must be very wary in reaching such conclusion because the last time Israel suffered land invasion is almost over 3 decades.  On the contrary her military investments (both actions and reactions) in the last 3 decades have been a cacophony of self-inflicted wounds, poorly planned invasions, untimely occupation of foreign territories and undisciplined responses. In a fast changing world, such military supremacy calls for careful internal reorganisation rather than refresh sabre-rattling.

Future Outcomes

It is unwise to analyse latest Iraqi event without consideration to Syria. The past 3 years has seen combined foreign policy projection of United States and Saudi Arabia focused on regime change in Damascus. While Damascus is a medium country with enormous geopolitical significance, the forces against regime change have foiled the programme and progress with recent past re-election of President Bashar Al-Assad.  As pro-Syrian influence (including Moscow & Beijing) gains ground in the geopolitical sphere a number of developments may conspire to advance a new power reconfiguration. The implications are massive and pregnant over time.

For starter, free elections in Syria voted by massive numbers within and beyond her border conveyed a strong message of legitimacy and allegiance to the state. This must be a worrying development in Riyadh which is increasingly isolated with her failure to unseat President Assad and being the only country in the region that is immuned from any form of elected representation. For Damascus the Iraqi debacle only confirmed & vindicated their long conclusion that terrorism/insurgency is the main issue. In the short term her border with Iraq will remain porous until the violence purveyors are finally checked.

Turkey is caught in an embarrassing and dangerous position as a result of foreign policy inconsistency. Being a primary loser in the Syria regime change programme, Ankara is forced to retreat & breakout of isolation from her erstwhile allies. This week’s visit of Iranian president is an interesting signal that measures of recalibration are in the works in Ankara as all roads are now leading to Tehran.  The biggest source of Turkey’s isolation is drawn from events in Egypt which put her in conflict with Riyadh which favoured the coup in Cairo. As Cairo moves ahead with erstwhile Field Marshall in civilian robe, Ankara will be forced to concede and realign her interest especially with Moscow-Beijing tandem whose relevance eschews military dominance.

However, the latest Iraqi event put her on the foreground. While Ankara denied sponsoring or working with some non-state violence purveyors in Syria, it is clear that her actions and foreign policy towards Iraq is ambivalent. It cannot separate suppressing Kurdish aspiration in Turkey from cooperating with Kurdish aspiration in Iraq in effect destabilising/subverting her. The final conclusion of this move will be maximised in having a full-fledged state of Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkey must come to terms that Kurds within her territory need to advance their political aspirations and self determination. The Kurdish question will equally be the next thorny issues for Damascus and Tehran to deal with and the earlier both capitals generate enhanced policies that allow improved Kurdish profiles within both countries the better.

Finally it is apparent that a new Middle East is emerging from the ruins of US misadventure and foreign policy inflexibility. Although one could argue that US never left Iraq rather set the scene precariously for timely re-entry. Of course they are never ignorant of event therein. On this point Israel and Saudi Arabia have a lot of review to execute. For both capitals, the critical issue remain the viability of their US relationship to realising their national aspirations in the region. It will be erroneous for both capitals to ignore US diminution of Middle East in her Asia Pivot. 

The only significant US footprint in the region with realistic potential for profit is Iran hence the inevitable review of her decades long isolation of Tehran.  Any reversal of Baghdad will be short lived. Both capitals must come to terms with this reality as well as attempt reconfiguring their foreign policy away from US dominance. What is gradually emerging is that Washington DC cannot carry out ad infinitum her militaristic divide-and-conquer policy in the region without incurring further unsustainable costs.

After Capture

Events in Iraq will advance to another phase. The non-state players will not go on fighting spree without resistance or settle down to govern. The feasibility of their taking Baghdad is limited as foreign interest like Tehran will surely spurn it robustly. There is potential for convergence of many interests of Tehran, Baghdad, Ankara and Washington DC. For US it may be an opportunity to save face from the mess they original created meaning making further concession to Tehran beyond selling arms to Baghdad. 

Moscow will be watching curiously from the sidelines. To a further extent eliminating non-state violence purveyors’ threat that may involve applying similar method adopted in strafing non-state actors in Jordan few weeks. Tehran is no mood to give up newly gained influence over Baghdad & Damascus, doing so will be at the behest of wider regional conflict.  In the short term, Riyadh may not countenance such measure but have little room to contest considering unpredictable mood of US public opinion.

Unlike Taliban Afghanistan which had positive relationship with neighbouring Pakistan, emerging Middle East neighbourhood lack the goodwill, resources, docile population and buoyant economy to tolerate insurgent rule. One thing is very clear, Saudi Arabia’s power projection via violence purveyor have run its course. Any new encouragement will produce short term gain with massive blow-back consequence. It has reached its conclusive end in the Middle East. A new foreign policy and a new power projection format devoid of preponderance on neighbours need to be constituted because geopolitical power players like Beijing and Moscow are potential investors in such reconfiguration of policy in Riyadh.  The wind is blowing eastwards.

The Fundamental Case for Nigeria’s Realism Perceived as Pessimism

Introduction

It is conventional wisdom for peoples whose origins and home is coterminous to the geography and territory called Nigeria to struggle & hope for better outcomes therein. Given the fact that the concept of ‘independent’ Nigeria is very young including the fact that its current experience were already in place prior to its emergence as ‘independent’, it is difficult for an average individual to accept that the road to normalcy will take very long.  It is therefore the case of this article to re-emphasise that positive expectations will take very long to emerge.

So it was

The last many weeks has brought concentrated attention to Nigeria as a result of the abduction of school girls from Chibok, Borno State by Boko Haram. As awful as this crime is, the manner of its presentation apparently suggested that all has been well with Nigeria since its ‘independence’ which is a big lie. One should reconnect this incident with numerous instances of injustice and impunity perpetrated by both the state and non-state actors even as Boko Haram blazes her ugly trail. In any case Boko Haram is not the epicentre of Nigeria’s problems but just one of the many manifestations of a failing state. The history of the current was drafted in the past and was known & accentuated to evolve into the current state. The only disagreement was the margin of error.  

Evil History

One of the many illusions of being a citizen is that of assumed principal actor or consultant on public issues that matter. The plain truth which is analogous to real politics is that citizens and ordinary people do not really matter in decisions tied to realpolitik.  Information on the public domain is not different from the tip of iceberg showing the usual 1%. In the modern descriptive statistical parlance, 99% of the population or citizens are burdened with 1% of public information which most of them believe in like lifeline.  In an age of awareness of secrets it makes sense to confront what the role of a citizen means in Nigeria at different geographical contexts.

Stupid Intelligentsia & Abuse of Geography

If a non-Nigerian confront Nigeria the first time, only wonderment hits his/her mind on the mismatch between observed resources and minute actual positive outcomes.  One of the main trends of observation will be the intellectual veracity or acumen of normal Nigerian who seem to know everything about possible solutions. The missing link is that Nigerian may know little about himself/herself.  Rather he/she will shift gears into the beauty of various ideological and theoretical perspectives expressing the said beauty is ruined by poor implementation or benign neglect.

One area of bizarre concentration is geography. Many years after ‘independence’ you will think that pre-colonial metaphors of time and space have given way in an inter-generational shift of enlightenment. No, you rather confront a dogmatic entrenchment of identity of signpost of the 4 cardinal points; East West, North and South.  Individuals and ethnic nations are pasted to these directions. You find individuals and young people accept and pump up the saddlement with colonial spatial symbol disconnected from their present realities. These relics of ‘colonialism in one country’ continue to reverberate with savvy inducement from some quarters for its re-classification as geopolitical zones.  The print and electronic media seem to be genetically attached to these recognitions with their irrepressible attention to colonial zones from which any interlocutor hailed from.

As this flies in the face of basic logic of course exposing the farce and stupidity of their purveyors, one wonders what the current geographical subdivisions are for.  If you meander away from debates on federalism, the idea behind internal balkanisation into 36 states at the 2^nd level and 774 local governments at the 3^rd level cutting down both nations and directions should have been workable of course in principle.

Despite the fact these subdivisions are equipped with timely supply of monetary resources; most of them over time have failed and become failed states. They have become reference point for ethnic nationalists & power elite & local champions’ accumulation and consolidation only to revert to mischievous harping of marginalisation and discrimination.  These power elite & local champions are part of another nation, the national of global power elite, the part of global 1% who accumulate assets and capitals by any means necessary, making huge profits without any production and whose space of expression is the globe.

The citizens whose right it is to question spending and unfulfilled promises quickly abandons the offending local government HQ and guilty state capital  to collate grievances of certain ethnic nations and Federal government on incompetence. So the nested metageopolitical and metageographical constructions become architectures of malfeasance and inter-generational corruption. The poor men/women fill it! This sensibility to injustice and misappropriation of finger pointing & deliberate non-recognition of the guilty party is a troubling mismatch.

Sadly the Nigeria members of the global elite are shoe shiners and only submit on the altar of profiteering scrapheap to sacrifice their peoples, their strategic interest, state assets, their origins and their future generations. Watch the video below! Of course for them what matters is appreciation or even positive mention by the top global elite or their underlings.  Geopolitical forces extend their influence through their sell-out without positive returns for the peoples.

They are one

The narrative of abuse of national failure is always allocated to the other. How ‘they’ hurt ‘us’! Really? Majority of Nigerians regardless of their geographical and ethnic origins are collectively in a big mess. They are pawns in the high stake games played by the power elite across the country who hail from all the ethnic nations.  These are the descendants of the so-called ‘independence’ harbingers who saw it fit that power is concentrated in few hands and around few spaces over time.  For nearly 2 generations they have subjected the common peoples to fight against one another for the power elite as strategic distraction. Limbo of fear! Some ethnic nations have suffered more than others at times directly from the Nigeria state. Even as these texts are gushing out of the keyboard, one mindless mind will let loose about ‘our’ leader, the ‘northern’ or ‘south-south’ bonkers. Nice one!

At last

In the finally analysis, Nigeria’s problem is very deep and hope of positive outcome is not unusual nevertheless the structural genealogy of these problems make it difficult to have a good administration.  When you have a state set up without input of real people, an artificial space without the peoples’ contribution except their blood & modification/projection without positive results, then state’s existence remains unviable. Its existence will only favour a few feeding on hegemonic interest frenzy while majority live suffering and smiling.  Not because of the people or their places or their view and religions; a structure of weakness can be suffocating and dominant to overcome the least effort for positive change in a short time. The only investment required is adoption of clear awareness, real knowledge, positive network and time. Few more generations will pass before the fruit of real labour will transform the land and her peoples, may be at the time the concept of Nigeria as it is currently known have changed. 

Currency of Nigerian Catholic Bishops & National State of Affairs

Introduction

The ongoing dilapidation of Nigerian politics and economy has provided a set of responses from various collective stakeholders including religious groups. It is poignant to stress that Catholic voice and positions remains subtle at various levels and at best diplomatic. It is the position of this article that subdued pronouncements of the Catholic hierarchy on Nigeria state of affair is not a choice rather an outcome of complicated & watered interpretation of relationship between church & state.

In the Beginning

The last 2 decades has seen Nigeria accelerate her strides in retrogression, abuse, waste and self-destruction.  On most social, economic and cultural indicators; the numbers are mostly low, negative and stagnant. Of course not everything is negative but for the most part the picture needs enhancement. One may conclude that the biggest achievement Nigeria had was not independence as it was handed down like a Greek gift on a plate, rather the conclusion of Nigeria-Biafra War. For better or for worse since Gowon Syndrome, successive governments have failed to shake off the syndrome rather raise its profile.  Gowon Syndrome is former Head of State, General Yakubu Gowon’s conclusion that Nigeria’s problem is how to spend her wealth not how to manage it.

Flair of Faith

Nigeria has always been a space of religions and faiths nevertheless one must state unequivocally that non-indigenous religions entered this space on the vehicle of violence, genocide and inter-generational destruction where applicable.  Christian faith including Catholicism did not enter Nigeria based on free missionary programme rather at the behest of geopolitical machinations of empires on ‘civilisation missions’.  London had no strategic problem for non-Anglicans especially her enemy, Rome to assist her pacification programme of recreating or making New Men/New Women in the conquered space for Monarchy & Country. One must recall earlier relationship between Warri and the Portugal from the 15^th century which despite increases in trade and catholic religious missions foundered when the Warri catholics calls for Lisbon’s assistance in face of expanding slave trade went unanswered.

Biafra War

While Nigeria’s political evolution carried religious weight or significance for sections of the population, there is no record of resorting to zealous and fanatical violence by those who profess Christianity as means for projecting power or obtaining political relief. Historically, the current Islamic gangsterism playing out in sections of Nigeria is an illustration of denied early warning sign ever present before the emergence of Nigeria ‘on a plate’.  Biafran War opened a new frontier of complex relationship between the Catholic Church in the war theatre & the then military government.  

While the Church saw herself as a religious cum charitable organisation helping civilians as best as it could, the military government remained suspicious of the ordain leaders and foreign partners not solely on what they are doing rather how they are doing it. The climax of this relationship was the expulsion of catholic charities by Lagos on the same suspicion.  One of the positive results is the elevation of the church ordained leaders in the war theatre to positions of enormous responsibility with all the complexity associated with it until the war ended in 1970.

Hierarchy Public Confusion

It is now a given that Catholic bishops do not make public pronouncements of many issues of politics and economy rather are adroit in taking the diplomatic option even though they are citizens of the same Nigeria. The last time I recalled a senior church official made series of serious comments on politics was the period when then Archbishop Okogie was in charge in Lagos.  He had views as a catholic and as a Nigerian and those views were made in the public space and some of them rattled the government in power. These views were not outcomes of academic research, or articles on a newspaper/glossy magazine or whispers from a press secretary.  They were ‘live’ outpourings of a ordained catholic leader during interviews on various social, economic and political situations.

No one reads or hears similar briefings from members of Nigeria Catholic Bishops. There seem to have been a sea change which has limited their statements, briefings and public comments on situations in the land. One must confess that situation in Nigeria in the last 2 decades continues to be dreadful politically, economically and socially. This is rather serious to the point that the head of Nigerian Muslims (Sultan of Sokoto) if there is any such thing, has concluded that Nigerian Muslims or sections of Muslims are marginalised.  Real or imagined is debateable.

The Difficult Path

Becoming and being a Catholic is non-trivial & complex like other human decisions. Being an active lay catholic leader in public space is a complex matter which in no way is the fault of these leaders. It is even more difficult for priests and bishops despite their agency and freewill. The complexity of priests and bishops in public space in recent times is conditioned on geopolitical forces and realities between Vatican and national governments. In sense, one is free to conjecture that ‘permission’ to practise catholic faith is based on an understanding between Nigerian government and Vatican.   

Unlike non-catholic Christians who are not constrained by compliance demands or meeting obligation of an external entity, Vatican is to all intent and purpose the owner of Catholic Church in various countries except China. In some countries with other Christian traditions, this relationship is strictly regulated even to the point of actual lines of the Creed said at Mass like in Greece and allocation of Holy days.  This is the focus of Vatican geopolitical sensitivity and its efficient ‘muscular’ diplomatic machine.

To ensure excellent relationship between Vatican (Nigerian Catholics) and Nigeria per se, they exchange ambassadors. Vatican ambassador or Papal Nuncio’s role among other things it keeping tabs on the national church, ensuring that priests/bishops fall in line with expectations especially in areas of potential clash of interests and finally submit timely reports of the national church to Vatican. On this crucial point, the complexity of ‘separation of church and state’ becomes bare and unhinged. Many Catholics maybe aware of this dynamic and its rich complexity or couldn't care less about it. The dangerous aspect is the complexity is expressed in defining a catholic in any state. Is a catholic a citizen of 2 states even without possessing passport of one? This is beyond the scope of this piece nevertheless one may begin to share former Soviet leader, Joseph Stalin’s concern when he asked, “How many battalions has the pope (Vatican)”?

However it is important that in a turbulent political and social space, the catholic leadership not only manage and administer temporal and spiritual processes but equally make unambiguous public statements to update and teach the general population as citizens of the state. One will even go as far as suggesting that in a space of contested politics and economic meltdown, it behoves the national catholic hierarchy to adopt a robust & active progressive programme of cost-effective intervention through services provision especially in deprived areas. It is also essential to encourage new crop of leadership from lay people with less ecclesiastical baggage to enable them respond or collaborate with other forces timely and appropriately on crucial issues at various geographies of the state.

Crystal Ball

There is a serious concern with benign public profile of Nigeria bishops in recent times. For the past 500 years or so, Vatican sat under geopolitical constructions with highest economic, political and military profiles. It is also a fact that Vatican relationship with US hegemony/imperialism advanced during WW2 when both interests converged on the fact the Nazism was the primary threat and communism the secondary threat. Conclusion of the war provided the first test of the policy in Yugoslavia under Marshall Tito and was further accelerated when Stalin expelled Yugoslavia from the communist club.  

With gradual rise of China in a post-communist era and by implication contraction of economic power in Europe and North America, Vatican’s influence may be constrained by Beijing’s profile. This is also connected with unresolved problems between Vatican and various member of the Orthodox Church which includes Russia even though Moscow has no global ambition. There is growing concern that Vatican has not publicly expressed her position with regard to Africa and Nigeria and there is clear signal of an understanding from the Nigerian church. Similar issue can be raised on hegemony and imperialism projected by US AFRICOM and US destabilisation of Africa.

It behoves Nigeria Catholic Church to have robust position on these issues with an independent disposition, realistic objective and clear ideas based on experiences/concerns drawn from the faithful and in line with Nigeria’s strategic objective and strategic interests. 

Africa between the Battle of Two Asian Pivots

Introduction

United States demoted strategic relevance of both Europe and Middle East during Obama’s first term with Hilary Clinton as Secretary of State. Apart from continuing most of George W Bush foreign policies, Obama regime demonstrated an attempt to repack containment strategies a la Brzezinski and unipolar doctrine of the New American Century. The final outcome is reconfiguration of the grand chessboard of global balance of power to contain emerging China with the Asian Pivot policy. This Asian pivot is a full spectrum containment policy including but not limited to military option. Considering that US projection of power diminished or dismissed potent reaction of Moscow, nevertheless its implementation has resulted in Moscow’s breakout to pivot in Asia. We’ll attempt to navigate through the geopolitical jungle on how these developments will reflect on Africa.

Last Man Standing

In a previous piece I attempted to make a geopolitical case for the broadness of US Asia Pivot policy of containing Beijing to include but limited to relocation of strategic and convention military assets to the Pacific. I stressed that US AFRICOM is part of the full spectrum of the policy to mitigate mineral resources supply lines of China from Africa. It is long standing policy of US since 1945 not to tolerate any competition in the global stage and the demise of USSR in 1991 provided a triumphant and hubristic conclusion. Of course such investment in geopolitical celebration seem to ignore lessons of history or where it was understood, resources were mismanaged & misplaced.

It is the triumphalism of assumed unipolar world dominated by Washington DC that led her to openly choose the part of self-destruction. In any case global domination simultaneously by military and cyber forces is perceived as fait accompli.  Africa’s resistance to US overtures especially US AFRICOM was led by Ghaddafi since most of the continent leaders were either weakly running the show only in their capitals or are simply on the throes of stagnation. Nigeria was muddled as a baggage of potential with increasingly diminished diplomatic profile of a client status.

Enter the Dragon

By the time Deng Xiaoping rendered his own version of ‘riches is good’, USSR was on its deathbed as Gorbachev struggled with its life support coupled with ineffective dual doses of perestroika and glasnost. Beijing could only source for mineral resources from around the world at market prices in other to sustain her emerging role as the factory of the world. One must always understand Beijing’s motive for dropping Marx for Adams on the economy.  Potential loss of power albeit in a violent counter-revolution by over a billion people is non-trivial expectation hence strategic adoption of market economy is rather doing politics by other means. Internal stability and unchallenged maintenance of power are the primary objectives of Chinese Communist Party.

Therefore Africa offered Beijing rich opportunities to invest, pay at world prices, extract minerals and transport raw materials back to China.  Angola and Nigeria added to her crude oil sources while DRC and other country opened up precious/rare mineral reserves.  Underlying these developments is strong US ambivalence on Africa summarised in Henry Kissinger’s dictum that nothing good comes out of Africa which was punctuated by 3 events; 1970s – 1980s awashing of US weapons for various wars of liberation crystallised in the final push for Angola in the war between Washington DC & Havana by proxy, unleashing of World Bank/IMF structural programme of austerity/debt inflation and emergence of HIV/AIDS.

A number of developments enabled Chinese economic expansion into Africa after her 1970s ill-fated attempt to engage in liberation wars. These include US diminution of her only nuclear rival, Moscow; US investment of huge geopolitical capital in the precarious Middle East especially on the Israel-Palestinian file, Israeli invasion/occupation of Lebanon, Iran-Iraq War and Gulf War 1. The more unstable each case became the more US got involved even after suffering heavy day losses in 1982 Beirut Truck Bombing. Two items foreclosed US involvement in Middle East; ensuring Israeli pre-eminence and undisputed control of Gulf crude oil.

Full Spectrum Self Destruction

By the time US ‘won’ the Cold War, USSR finally laid to rest, Russia emerged weak and confused, Europe finally pacified; Washington DC seemed to have reached its geopolitical zenith. The apparent consolidation and sole dictation of global events was insufficient prize as new frontiers were mapped out for accumulation. In the meantime European Union had garnered enough feathers to attempt serious flight while NATO gradually moved eastwards unopposed by a hapless Moscow. Whatever happened in 2001 allowed United States to advance her new programme of global domination forward with hubris and miscalculated judgements.

Dual invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq with the most lethal weapons ever made by man presented cheap military victory, inter-generational social disasters and minimal real positive objectives at years turned into a decade plus. In the decade of warring, Beijing consolidated her African expansion to the point of rendering World Bank/IMF irrelevant. US distraction and side shows ran by London & Paris still didn't allow many African countries rooms to manoeuvre coupled with mismanagement, huge debts, instability, crumbled infrastructure and lack of vision/innovation.

China’s non-interference in other country’s internal affair and US distraction offered Africa new options in an emerging geo-economic space for trade, finance and investments all in US dollars.  China-Africa summits suddenly became new features in international events calendar. Prudent management of these windfalls is an important subject for critical examination across African capitals. However Beijing was focused on her strategic interest to ensure ‘a peaceful rise’.  Apparently Africa from Clinton era had gradually became a serious subject as a space for actual domination or (military) re-colonisation not her peoples but her rich geology. This will mean further reduction of London & Paris influence. This is the making of US AFRICOM.

The Bear wakes from Hibernation

Moscow’s humiliation a la Boris Yeltsin is gradually reversed by Putin nevertheless without commitment of global power projection rather with expectation to be counted an indispensible serious player on the world stage.  Unfortunately Putin and Russian elite since Peter the Great have a historical predilection of over seeking Western attention. The same conclusion can be drawn on Moscow’s disinterest in Africa which USSR accentuated it with hierarchical classification of communist orthodoxy that relegated African players at the bottom. Havana tasted Moscow’s modus vivendi in the conclusion of Cuban Missile Crisis with Kennedy-Khrushchev rapprochement behind the scene as Fidel Castro painfully acknowledged.  

The second coming of Putin was on the back of Medvedev misjudgement in giving US green light on ‘humanitarian intervention’ to destroy Libya in 2011, in the process eliminate the sole resistance to US AFRICOM operating freely in Africa with the murder of Ghaddafi.  Another expression of Russia’s retrogressive view of Africa!  Putin must have absorbed the lesson and when Damascus’ turn came for vaporisation with Hellfire & Tomahawk missiles, Moscow objected, blocked potential ‘intervention’ and offered strategic solution. US were not only saved humiliation, Arab world was lifted up a bit while Tel Aviv consolidated her pre-eminence in the area with Tehran waiting with uncertainty on the wings.

Curiously US policy was churning out success in Kigali and Kampala in the genocidal frenzy in the Democratic Republic of Congo leaving nearly 6 million dead. A bequeathal to Mobutu! These arrowheads on the east African flank grew their profiles, received huge military aid from US and consolidated their leadership with unchallenged political structures. Addis Ababa played the regional policeman in Somalia while seamlessly accepting Beijing’s investments.

West Africa has been sinking for a long time with Nigeria running a client show in declining stature and diplomatic misery. Libya’s invasion simply opened the door to further destabilise West Africa for ‘humanitarian intervention’ and disrupt Chinese investment where applicable. Though South Africa is a BRICS member with medium-sized diplomatic weight, it broke ranks to vote for US invasion of Libya in 2011. Africa is caged with increasing number of US AFRICOM military instructors and drone bases across the continent to ‘fight terrorism’!

Moscow Asia Pivot

It is difficult to estimate the depth of lessons Moscow learnt from its 2008 war with Georgia. One can suggest little as NATO continued her eastward match. In 2014 finally Kiev offered Moscow a grand opportunity to reconsider her foreign policy, revalue her history in Europe and simulate her future interests/security. In deciding against military response to the Kiev provocation, Moscow reaped huge dividend which added to her urgency in recalibrating her disentanglement from the US economic machine. Washington DC miscalculation in Kiev presented Moscow an entree to finally establishing an independent payment system (cutting out Visa & MasterCard), advance the use of rouble in trade and finally accepting that her future partly depends on developments in rising Asia starting with China.

The recent past $400 billion gas deal signed with Beijing to supply gas via pipelines for at least 30 years is significant & in contrast signals categorical economic pivot in Asia. While global trade in US dollar is declining, this deal opens the door wider for trade in basket of currencies which may exclude US dollars. China finally obtains secure energy supply lines with minimum interdiction. While Russia secures an alternative market in a near-perfect diversification strategy. The era of bilateral trade in national currencies is finally returning with national central banks on the throes of losing their ‘cherished independence’.

It cannot be challenged that most of the deal will be paid for in Yuan and Ruble which further diminishes US dollar profile hence US hegemony.  With large high income populations across Asia particularly in India, energy demand will surely rise. With Pakistan & Afghanistan currently the sick men of Asia geo-stability, secure pipeline encirclement of Asia from Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan will be fait accompli in a few years despite US resistance. 

European uncertainty and disunity led by a weak Germany on isolating Moscow indicates that many capitals are willing to defy Washington DC to preserve their strategic interests. France publicly rebuffed US leaning to cancel her defence contracts with Moscow. Berlin’s ambivalence is testified by the robust & unflinching position of her business elite on their Russian investments. Curiously these investments have potential opportunity to be conveyed in Euros & Ruble further restricting US dollar.

Which Way Africa?  

Africa is not in the position to defy or resist US. Nigeria is already lurching between failed-state status and moribund existence despite possession of huge mineral and human resources. The unending freefalling of Naira is matched against dominance of US dollars in trade coupled with members of Washington DC consensus serving as Economy and National Planning ministers.  However with increasing profile of Beijing through various financing and investment vehicles, African capitals may have to renegotiate old contracts and draw new deals in Yuan.  African central banks may have to adopt stronger positions to enable Beijing freer hand in their economies with greater injection of Yuan despite the challenges to their domestic markets. In any case these central banks have huge potential in dealing in basket of currencies as diversified investment portfolios with capacity of negotiating improve trade terms.

Without pursuing illusions, African countries have a long way to go especially French colonised countries whose national reserves are held in the French Treasury without accountability from Paris. Close cooperation is required for African countries to make positive move which ensuring domestic stability in their internal affairs. Gradual reversal from poorly negotiated & lopsided EU free trade agreements is necessary. Whether such moves will be countenanced by Beijing in the long run is a matter of conjecture. In the meantime Beijing lacks the capability to protect her strategic interests overseas militarily hence the apparent threat of US military. In the mean time Africa has the potential of swimming between the tides of geopolitical powers as the older template of international balance of power is giving way.

US is caught in a precarious position as a result of ill-defined foreign policies especially over priority on Middle East. With Middle East in tatters and seriously weakened, the windfall of resistance will move towards Tehran elevating her as the regional power as US reluctantly concede the errors of Iraq invasion.  An Iran freed from encumbrances of US containment and military bases will surely project power through expansion of internal investments, welcoming Asian investments, securing Syrian file and reinvigorate trade with Europe including in oil & gas sales. Most of these potentials may inevitable lead to increased activity in a basket of currencies with a diminished US power only able to tolerate and manage her strategic interest without recourse to military force. This is a lesson for African capitals and courageous policy makers.