Introduction
Reactions from mainstream media
on the latest assault on Iraq by non-state armed group are foreseeable. Even with unclear set of propositions, these
same media outlets were at the outset justifying Iraq invasion and damning the
consequences come what may. Now that it has arrived it is important to revert
back to the structural historical facts that enabled this onslaught and the
potential geopolitical outcomes for the neighbours and other players.
Die was Cast
Iraqi file was closed by United
States before 2001. Despite lack of evidence and plausible justification, 2003
invasion of Iraq sealed her fate as a viable state and commenced retrogressive
forces for her destabilisation and balkanisation. By the time the first US
bombs hit Iraqi soil, this ill-fated history against reason unfolded. One must equally consider that the road to
Iraq’s ruin commenced earlier with its 1980 invasion of Iran with US
understanding and support of Arab states except Syria. Despite a wealth of knowledge on the fragile
nature of the state & region, United States single-minded offensive based on false
premise unleashed potent forces to replace old fault lines.
Majority of the population, who
are Shia Muslims with long relationship with Iran, saw their chance to grab
power. Saudi Arabia and other Arab states may have warned Washington DC against
the move but one must only conjecture how such warnings were countered
especially to Riyadh. Without firing a
shot Tehran extended her influence in new Iraq economically, politically,
culturally and of course in the religious sphere. Tehran was very much aware of
the limitations with the new prize, with fair understanding of the religious
and ethnic complexity of the already fragile country.
Imposition of ‘peace’ and
‘democracy’ by force simply consolidated old wounds, open new ones and created
gangrenous ones. Shia domination of Baghdad is incontestable in the new fragile
dispensation; Sunnis have lost power in Iraq. Despite the ‘success’ of elections
that transferred power to Shia majority, Iraq never reverted back to a viable
state rather a fertile ground for non-state violence and insurgency controlled
by different countries. With Kurds
effectively in charge of the north, what remains of Iraq turned into red meat
zone of contest for Sunni/Shia sensibilities devoid of clear timeline. What happened early in the week express a new
phase of power reconfiguration sponsored by various countries. It is not the speed with which the Iraqi
armed forces folded is the matter, rather the central focus of attention is
when those consensus form on non-existence of erstwhile Iraq.
Reconfiguration of Middle East
If there were no petroleum in
Iraq US invasion and subsequent conflicts may not have taken place.
Nevertheless the invasion and subsequent moves have reconfigured power bases in
the Middle East to the point where current outcome presents a weakened US. At
the present time, Iran has every course to maximised her opportunities while
exploring how to counter the threats that are already apparent on her western
borders. Yesterday, Iranian president made a bold statement before high ranking
officials of his non-tolerance for instability in Iraq. The question that
emerges from this point is, which Iraq? Nevertheless, Baghdad has favourable
relations with Tehran with increasing cooperation and coordination on various
matters of strategic interest.
Arab states continue to diminish
in quantity and quality. Recent past Kuwaiti Emir's visit to Tehran is gesture that further isolates Riyadh. This spectre of diminution confirms the limits of Saudi
Arabia’s diplomatic weight with United States as it not only loses leverage but
failed to generate a productive foreign policy in reaction to these failures.
Riyadh’s response to these developments have been counter-productive,
short-sighted and isolationist.
Investing huge resources in judicial, extra-judicial and non-state actor
destabilisation of other countries in the region has not brought and will not
bring positive dividend.
Israel is now isolated in her
pre-eminence as the most powerful military power in the region despite the
niggling potential of Hezbollah. Without firing a shot, Tel Aviv has achieved
her primary objective of being the first among equals in the region which
apparently frees her from serious concerns of conventional irritation from
beyond her borders. One must be very
wary in reaching such conclusion because the last time Israel suffered land
invasion is almost over 3 decades. On
the contrary her military investments (both actions and reactions) in the last
3 decades have been a cacophony of self-inflicted wounds, poorly planned invasions,
untimely occupation of foreign territories and undisciplined responses. In a fast
changing world, such military supremacy calls for careful internal
reorganisation rather than refresh sabre-rattling.
Future Outcomes
It is unwise to analyse latest Iraqi
event without consideration to Syria. The past 3 years has seen combined
foreign policy projection of United States and Saudi Arabia focused on regime
change in Damascus. While Damascus is a medium country with enormous
geopolitical significance, the forces against regime change have foiled the
programme and progress with recent past re-election of President Bashar
Al-Assad. As pro-Syrian influence (including
Moscow & Beijing) gains ground in the geopolitical sphere a number of
developments may conspire to advance a new power reconfiguration. The
implications are massive and pregnant over time.
For starter, free elections in
Syria voted by massive numbers within and beyond her border conveyed a strong
message of legitimacy and allegiance to the state. This must be a worrying
development in Riyadh which is increasingly isolated with her failure to unseat
President Assad and being the only country in the region that is immuned from
any form of elected representation. For Damascus the Iraqi debacle only
confirmed & vindicated their long conclusion that terrorism/insurgency is
the main issue. In the short term her border with Iraq will remain porous until
the violence purveyors are finally checked.
Turkey is caught in an
embarrassing and dangerous position as a result of foreign policy
inconsistency. Being a primary loser in the Syria regime change programme,
Ankara is forced to retreat & breakout of isolation from her erstwhile allies. This
week’s visit of Iranian president is an interesting signal that measures of
recalibration are in the works in Ankara as all roads are now leading to
Tehran. The biggest source of Turkey’s
isolation is drawn from events in Egypt which put her in conflict with Riyadh
which favoured the coup in Cairo. As Cairo moves ahead with erstwhile Field
Marshall in civilian robe, Ankara will be forced to concede and realign her
interest especially with Moscow-Beijing tandem whose relevance eschews military
dominance.
However, the latest Iraqi event
put her on the foreground. While Ankara denied sponsoring or working with some
non-state violence purveyors in Syria, it is clear that her actions and foreign
policy towards Iraq is ambivalent. It cannot separate suppressing Kurdish
aspiration in Turkey from cooperating with Kurdish aspiration in Iraq in
effect destabilising/subverting her. The final conclusion of this move will be
maximised in having a full-fledged state of Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkey must come
to terms that Kurds within her territory need to advance their political aspirations
and self determination. The Kurdish question will equally be the next thorny issues
for Damascus and Tehran to deal with and the earlier both capitals generate
enhanced policies that allow improved Kurdish profiles within both countries
the better.
Finally it is apparent that a new
Middle East is emerging from the ruins of US misadventure and foreign policy inflexibility. Although one could argue that US never left Iraq rather set the scene
precariously for timely re-entry. Of course they are never ignorant of event
therein. On this point Israel and Saudi Arabia have a lot of review to execute.
For both capitals, the critical issue remain the viability of their US
relationship to realising their national aspirations in the region. It will be
erroneous for both capitals to ignore US diminution of Middle East in her Asia
Pivot.
The only significant US footprint in the region with realistic potential
for profit is Iran hence the inevitable review of her decades long isolation of
Tehran. Any reversal of Baghdad will be
short lived. Both capitals must come to terms with this reality as well as
attempt reconfiguring their foreign policy away from US dominance. What is
gradually emerging is that Washington DC cannot carry out ad infinitum her militaristic divide-and-conquer policy in the
region without incurring further unsustainable costs.
After Capture
Events in Iraq will advance to another
phase. The non-state players will not go on fighting spree without resistance
or settle down to govern. The feasibility of their taking Baghdad is limited as
foreign interest like Tehran will surely spurn it robustly. There is potential
for convergence of many interests of Tehran, Baghdad, Ankara and Washington DC.
For US it may be an opportunity to save face from the mess they original
created meaning making further concession to Tehran beyond selling arms to
Baghdad.
Moscow will be watching curiously from the sidelines. To a further
extent eliminating non-state violence purveyors’ threat that may involve
applying similar method adopted in strafing non-state actors in Jordan few
weeks. Tehran is no mood to give up newly gained influence over Baghdad &
Damascus, doing so will be at the behest of wider regional conflict. In the short term, Riyadh may not countenance
such measure but have little room to contest considering unpredictable mood of
US public opinion.
Unlike Taliban Afghanistan which
had positive relationship with neighbouring Pakistan, emerging Middle East
neighbourhood lack the goodwill, resources, docile population and buoyant
economy to tolerate insurgent rule. One thing is very clear, Saudi Arabia’s
power projection via violence purveyor have run its course. Any new encouragement
will produce short term gain with massive blow-back consequence. It has reached
its conclusive end in the Middle East. A new foreign policy and a new power
projection format devoid of preponderance on neighbours need to be constituted
because geopolitical power players like Beijing and Moscow are potential
investors in such reconfiguration of policy in Riyadh. The wind is blowing eastwards.
No comments:
Post a Comment