Introduction
The last few years saw the ascendancy
of post-cold war United State foreign policy and geopolitical projects against
many countries. The apex of this project has materialised as full-spectrum
onslaught against Russia. The purpose of this attack by any means necessary is
to eliminate Moscow as a potent rival or competitor, and only to exist thereafter as a weak and subservient state beholding to Washington DC interest. Further examples are presented summarising
how this questionable geopolitical policy loaded with vivid contradictions and geostrategic
initiatives failed spectacularly.
Violence-Colour Revolution
Incorporated
United States came out of the
cold war as one ‘winner’, ushered in the ‘end of history’ but apparently
refused to acknowledge history. The hubristic revision of the known world
engineered in the Washington DC elite proclivity for global full-spectrum dominance by
force of arms. One of the most glaring pointers of US foreign policy
development is that most of the recent hacks never had military or combat
experience which makes for their confused understanding of violence-oriented/’humanitarian’
initiatives.
Refusal to acknowledge Moscow’s
sphere of influence which has been in place for many centuries by United States
naturally pointed to disastrous outcomes. The assumption that post-Soviet apparent
Russian weakness will last for a long time is another dangerous abuse of
data/history. The support for ‘revolutions’ in Georgia and Ukraine by Washington
DC was contrasted by robust resistance and reversal by Moscow. Evidently
Georgia came out worse with a resultant dismemberment in Abkhazia and South
Ossetia secessions.
These 2 pieces of real estate now serve as buffer space on
the south eastern underbelly of Russia. Moscow can afford to move strategic
weapon systems into these new territories hence increasing pressure on European
security profile. Why didn't Washington
DC anticipate such response from Moscow? Russia is a world (nuclear) power and
has been around for a long time.
Now there is strategic windfall for
Russia to deploy nuclear weapons in Crimea which seats on the southern flank of
Europe. This is a prospect which is very dangerous for sanction-protagonists because
such an outcome will apparently nullify Turkish NATO position which is increasingly
becoming strained. This development will be a security checkmate on Europe with Russia's strategic fault line running from Kaliningrad to Crimea with linear extension south-eastward connecting Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Such an outcome will be
an interesting development and it may not have come in the geopolitical calculations
of sanction enthusiasts. Russia effectively becomes the coast-to-coast doorkeeper
of Eastern Europe! Call it a Nuclear Curtain! See Map below.
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| Potential Russia's Nuclear Curtain |
The encouragement of rebellion in
Chechnya is another geopolitical product that failed to fly. Being a strategic hub
for Russia gas transmission and in proximity with conflagrant zones from Arab
world to Afghanistan, war in Chechnya was instigated against a weak Russia.
Apparently the strategy failed because of poor understanding of history and
opaque management of Chechnya war interlocutors. Did interlocutors want full
independence from Russia or internal independence within Russia? Are they
hustlers and drug traffickers or genuine fighters for self-determination? The
war ended when the ex-President Boris Yeltsin ended his grip on Kremlin.
Sanctionitis
If anyone or country is suffering
from sanction, the disease can be given a name. United States chose to advance
a complicated weapon with no clear direction and devoid of full proof against herself
(the aggressor) and her allies. The list of countries United States put under strenuous economic
sanctions for decades range from Cuba, Iran and North Korea. None of these countries
gave in to US war 'by other means'. Sanction is a weapon that is closed from
close examination and most analysts in the West accept its potency at face
value. Regardless of geography and neighbourhood, nevertheless economic
sanctions fail at their implementation by legitimising its target. President Obama
confirmed this position few weeks ago on his review of policy on Cuba after 50 years of failure.
One of the complexities of
economic sanctions is the role of powerful US interests advancing it as part of
their domestic political dalliance and wealth accumulation strategy. In a world
that is increasingly connected through powerful random and clustered networks,
all the networks cannot be closed or deleted at the same time. Internal interests
of the United States do not always align with foreign interests except in
Europe.
The second casualty of economic
sanction is the de-legitimisation of the imposing country, her trade, her
products and her public diplomacy by the sanctioned country. US companies hurt
from lost trade and lost profit potentials hence driving these countries towards
self-sufficiency in select productive and development sectors. Cuba is not trivial in education, counter-intelligence
& medicine, Iran is powerful as a regional power and North Korea is no
pushover at least in military nuclear technology. Now placing Russia under economic
sanction is the most regressive geopolitical policy that any foreign ministry/minister
can authorise.
This is a very large country economically and geographically. It is
mostly interconnected as hubs and connectors with many global economic &
geopolitical networks. Apparently this country possessing specialised intergenerational
experience in reversing invaders cannot be reduced by mere manipulation of
numbers or withholding purchases of relevant good for a few days, weeks and months.
Russia’s defensive strategy is classic and has been replicated in various aspect
of her cultural and public life.
Evidently those who placed the
sanctions with various tools are hurting more than the target. Europe is in a
midst of catastrophic economic & political problems with none of her leaders sophisticated enough and forward-looking enough to appreciate the inter-linkage
of interests and halt the sanctions. EU citizens are replaced by austerity. Somehow
Russia’s ability to retaliate was either dismissed or was not even considered.
What is the net result? Russia remains standing, closed some of her markets to sanction enthusiasts and
will continue to stand despite plans to dismantle and humiliate her.
Rouble is devalued which is good
news for Russia producers and exporters. Oil price is going down and US shale
oil producers are in a pickle and the Western media is plastered with pretended
longevity of Saudi Arabia’s resolve forgetting that Riyadh is a winner. United
States is a big loser.
Geopolitical Isolation
A recent listener/reader of Western
media will confront the word ‘isolation’ numerous times whenever Russia is
mentioned. This is a fig leaf for unaccounted failed policy. When geopolitical
analysts planning to hit Russia big time marshalled their variables, they must
have considered potential blow-back. US isolation strategy against Russia has
failed spectacularly.
Moscow and Beijing have got
closer without becoming friendlier or increasing their enmity. On many recent geopolitical and international affairs, both capitals deliver synchronised or coordinated
positions. India, South American countries, Asian countries and the BRICS countries
didn't stop trading with Moscow. Moscow’s role is now inevitable in the resolution
of any conflict in the world. Apparently United States is seemingly isolated
except for subservient Europe swimming in the bubble of self-validation devoid
of measurable benefits. European leaders
deliberately scuttled the South Stream oil pipeline and now Moscow perfectly
exploited EU rift with Ankara and boosted Turkey’s position. A payback for EU
fuss over Ankara membership application!
It is even messier with United
States because the current Syrian civil war was initiated for Ankara on
Washington DC advice with the understanding that the job will finished and new
compliant faces will occupy Damascus. Reversing that understanding without
consultation by Washington DC is the reason for apparent Ankara’s intransigence
and zeal for every slimmer of victory against Damascus from setting up Kobani
no-fly-zone to manufacturing ‘moderate’ rebels and sponsoring endless round of ‘Friends
of Syria’ summit.
De-Dollarisation
Another outcome of economic
sanction is reduction in the utility of the sanction currency by the sanctioned
country, in this case, US dollars. With US dollar as a global reserve currency,
and in addition to other vibrant and emerging economies on the rise this means
a diversity of products and access. A sanctioned country with physical geographical
connections with other countries can always get round the ‘firewall’ easily by engaging in
international trade with other countries directly or via proxies with bilateral
payment deals, paying for products in gold and or dealing in a basket of currencies.
Products can be denominated in national currencies especially when the global
reserve currency is overvalued and is inimical to national interest of the
sanctioned country.
Russia seems to have started
reaping the harvest of contrary strategic opportunities of having her economy tied to the US dollar. First of all the doors of the economic was shut for US credit
card companies and domestic alternatives are advanced. Secondly, the threat of
compromise on the erstwhile international payment system (SWIFT) has led to the
development and deployment of a national payment system.
Beyond that Russia can call a
payment moratorium of foreign debt repayments which will hit first European
banks very hard in a time of austerity. It is also evident that 90% of nuclear
fuel for US nuclear industry is supplied by Russia which mainstream media will
not elaborate on. While US dollar will continue to reign supreme the proportion
of its utility in international trade is diminishing as a result of a
self-defeating policy of economic sanction against a world power.
Conclusion
While opinion is divided on
Russia’s readiness and response including linkage with US dollar economy, what
is overtly clear is that US hostile bid to isolate and diminish Moscow with various
tools of economic warfare and misinformation have failed not because they were
poorly implemented but due to their conceptual error ab initio or rather myopic view of a
reconfiguring geopolitical landscape. This regressive view include lazy
attitude towards history by decision makers in Washington DC. The idea that what
proved easy in Grenada, Libya, Iraq, Panama and Diego Garcia can be
propagated successfully on Russia with high level of positive outcome is preposterous
and regressive.
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