Post-Abdullah Saudi Arabia in the Geopolitical Order

Saudi Arabia Geopolitical Fortunes

Introduction

The recent death and burial of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia opened up a narrow window of time for consideration and analyses of his erstwhile positions especially his foreign policy. Now it is important to pay particular attention to those who took which position, who made specific responses and the target audience for the taken positions and responses. While cacophony of views overhangs, it is the position of this article that the most important subject is lost in the argument which is declining Saudi Arabia position in a geopolitically reconfiguring world. This is the discourse.

From the Outside

Saudi Arabia is known for 2 subjects, Islam and crude oil.  Everything item or object of attention and discussion revolves around or is nested in both subjects. The implication is huge because depending on your location in the world, the determinant of your interaction with Riyadh as a state depends on your religious disposition, your need/demand for her type of crude oil and her demand for niche goods/service your country produces. This is also the summary of Riyadh’s foreign policy and geopolitics since the end of WW2.

The Reality or Realpolitik

Saudi Arabia runs like many other countries of the world with its set of unique worldviews, expectations, assumptions and projections. It is a very rich country by many indicators which implies a dense connection with the outside world based on strong alignment with her strategic objectives. As an integral anchor in the comity of nations, she welds influence even beyond her ‘sphere of influence’ mostly in concert with other powers which is felt strongly at critical points of world history. A number of inflection points include 1970s alliance with crude oil producers (small powers) to cut production leading to global skyrocketing of prices with the attendant consequences.

In the 1980s Riyadh’s influence was projected against former USSR in Afghanistan through concerted support with USA of anti-USSR forces in the country. That influence continues to reverberate even today. When Iraq invaded Iran in 1980, the conflict was sustained in part due to Riyadh’s influence and collaboration with United States in a grand strategy that perceived Islamic Republic of Iran as a strategic threat to hegemonic and regional influences respectively.

Missing Pointers

The most important foreign policy of Saudi Arabia is the outcome of King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud’s summit with US President Roosevelt in 1945. The enactment of strategic relationship and partnership remains the cornerstone the Kingdoms’ foreign policy and geostrategic initiatives. Be mindful that 3 years later the state of Israel will come into being and a new dynamic emerges to consolidate over time.  What is interesting is King Abdul Aziz’s position on potential state of Israel in the neighbourhood and the questions he posed on the matter.

The first real test of Riyadh – Washington DC relationship came in the 1973 Arab – Israeli War. To King Faisal (Riyadh)’s surprise Washington DC sided with Tel Aviv and refused to countenance Riyadh’s concerns and consideration. Whether King Faisal wanted to recalibrate relationship with United States remains unclear but he showed his hand by playing the crude oil card.  There is no evidence that relations with United States was to be downgraded as the only other superpower was atheistic USSR, an anathema to Riyadh. Nevertheless despite the message, Riyadh was condemned to accept her position as 2^nd fiddle in US Middle East policy. Simultaneously, Riyadh had to contend with Shah’s Iran at the time projected a friendly posture towards both Washington DC and Tel Aviv.

A minor issue to consider is that in the aftermath of 1970s crude oil crisis, Riyadh agreed with Washington DC to rescue free-floating US dollar through backing it up with her huge profits deposited in US banks and denoting all OPEC crude oil transactions in US dollar. While this policy maybe contradictory to many observers, what is very clear is that Riyadh had few cards to play against US for a number of reasons. Her domestic aspirations devoid of any opposition are modest which secure revenue can handle, absence of strong domestic public opinion, prioritising economic pacification of the ruling family members and preponderance of stability in the region.

Precedence of Strategically Important Files & Inevitable Demotion 

2 dates set the scene in the region and have since strategically determined subsequent actions and reactions of all players. 1976 ignited Lebanon to open confessional conflagration which still defines that country. 1979 brought in the Islamic Republic of Iran. On these 2 events and outcomes Riyadh’s confessional disposition compelled her to lead, resist and regress those deemed opponents even in concert with erstwhile enemies. While the profile of Shias (Hezbollah) rose sharply and stabilised in Lebanon, Tehran consolidated around the Islamic Republic.

US went to Lebanon and returned empty handed in 1981/82. Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 and returned empty handed in 2000. Riyadh advised against 2003 Iraqi invasion but was shunned by Washington DC, as a consequence Tehran’s influence advanced to Saudi-Iraqi border. Riyadh’s position in the region never changed until 2003. It remained 2^nd behind Israel. Riyadh’s influence and power on Israel over the years is miserly on the Palestinian question even under late King Abdullah. Tel Aviv remains in ascendant indicating negative outcome of Riyadh diplomacy. Various Arab republics may share similar positions especially post-Mubarak Egyptian public.

Iranian resistance paid off with Washington DC rapprochement through initiative secret channel (Oman) of dialogue and negotiation. The secrecy was advanced against perceived and apparent resistance of Tel Aviv and feeble displeasure of Riyadh.  It is a known fact that Washington DC has acknowledged Tehran’s regional geopolitical heavyweight hence pushing Riyadh down the pecking order. Riyadh’s position was further eroded in her questionably joining Tel Aviv’s anti-Iran nuclear file without making forceful case for regional denuclearisation on the part of Israel.

Mixed Signals

United States is sending mixed signals to various allies in the region. Iran has an alternative and complex relationship with Washington DC and as such is not her dependent. The last geopolitical act of King Abdullah was supporting Palestine UN application torpedoed by United States rather than by Israel. Another black mark on Riyadh receding influence! With reducing crude oil purchase by United States Washington DC may be considering recalibrating relations with Riyadh pushing the latter further down the dependency ladder.

A stalemate in Syria and consolidation of President Bashar Al-Assad may have reflected his earlier view that Arab leaders are half men. Riyadh is not on a winning side! The south east underbelly is in tatters as Yemen erupts in ungovernable turmoil hence significant stretch of Saudi Arabia’s land border have become vulnerable. Bahrain remains uncertain despite Saudi Arabia-led 'humanitarian intervention' few years ago.

The ongoing geopolitical deployment of crude oil price depression by Saudi Arabia which has hurt & benefited many national economies remains open to interpretation. What is clear is on this edict of late King Abdullah is that beyond raising global concerns, it is unsustainable for Riyadh more so in the fact the nearly 90% of her revenue come from crude oil. Such policy is questionable and may return to haunt Riyadh in future depending on the uncertainty of its end.

Ankara is throwing fits and tantrums genuinely drawn from initial Washington DC encouragement (and later betrayal) to join in the expected overthrow of Damascus. President Edorgan can now settle for absence of no-fly zone in northern Syria, deflation of posture and haranguing Syrian Kurds against autonomous administration in Syria. Finally President Barack Obama glided across the India Oceans to avoid Auschwitz Holocaust memorial in Poland for condolence visit to King Salman in Riyadh with his wife's hair uncovered in equal measure symbolising disregard for Riyadh. By so doing he deftly ignored perceive top ally and projected higher objective in paying condolence visit to the lower ailing ally. Another US president may or may not perform such ritual less than a decade away.