Where is Europe Heading to?

Introduction

There is a perverse spectre haunting Europe since the last few decades. A spectre of confusion, dislocation and disconnection between the political leadership and the peoples. From east to west, north to south; this flowing stream of unwanted confusion dominates and suffocates with subtlety in every sphere of human endeavour despite ‘freedom’ and ‘democracy’. This article attempts to navigate through the issues at stake especially the emerging geopolitics of weakness that is gradually taking hold on the continent of retrogression and an apparent space of exhaustion.

Open Door to Darkness

The end of cold war was greeted with anticipation in Europe especially in the Anglo world where part of the losers of the great second war substituted their meltdown for the role of new order remora.  While it was clear that United States will have a freer hand to conduct affairs in a world as its sole constituency, only united Germany become the sole geopolitical consolation. Of course some will claim that unshackling of East European countries is worth the feast, nevertheless the geostrategic goodwill that enable remained unrewarded. Even as the cold war was winding down, most of the political and economic structures of Europe have already started the rotting process.

What the so-called cold war winner remoras didn't foresee was their new imposed roles as cheerleaders and sponsors of new Washington DC conflicts.  The descending darkness of national politics created a sharp divide between the elected and the electorate in a corrosive relegation of the latter to their greatest surprise mostly for gross misreading of history. They don’t count rather the new global power elite consolidated as real winners of the neoliberal virulent economic programme beating gravity to suspend the majority to the expectation of ill-fated ‘trickle down’ effects.

After Germany then what?

Leaders of Europe turned into reverse creativity in deviating from addressing the critical question of the new century; what is the new role of Europe in the post-cold war world? For many leaders of Europe the period seems to align with an ‘end of history’ for a new ‘beginning of history’. The question definitely is loaded as it doesn't in itself suggest independence or subservience to United States. One can only assume that from legacy information and geopolitical capacity, with the demise of USSR, Europe naturally becomes a client continent.

While this stage of geopolitical evolution is not totally pessimistic, future stages cannot be anticipated from current European leaders. Even the Mitterrand-Kohl ticket only provided an inward framework that never challenged US supremacy. Consolidation of Berlin-Paris axis simply sustained a repeat of events at the Hall of Mirrors 1871. Europe is insecure and insular to consolidate power under a common framework and is intellectually deflective to pursue the world as her space of dominance.  The wisdom of elongation of NATO’s relevance versus WARSAW Pact demise makes sense in this dimension, as a tool of military dominance over Europe. This tool can be unleashed domestically to put European house in check in fashion similar to Operation Gladio.

In retrospect it becomes very clear that the highest geopolitical achievement of Europe is the violent balkanisation of Yugoslavia with Berlin in the diplomatic ‘lead’ and United States making the ‘weaponistan’ killing. Deutschland uber alles! Curiously, the main driver of this calculation was Washington DC’s geostrategic extension of an old elite hatred of and curtailing Russian (cultural) sphere of influence. Yugoslavia never posed a threat to Europe.

Falling Over Nonsense

While Europe became scared of the world basking in its ‘successes’ it became apparently clear that political, economic and military consolidation under United States allows for extension of neoliberal agenda, global security via ‘war on terrorism’ and sustenance of convention, tactical and strategic wars machines/hardware of which US is the sole supplier. In the name of winning the cold war, Washington DC cleverly cornered the market and with the threat of raw hard power got the leaders to acquiesce to her initiative. One way of getting European capitals to confirm is the threat of closing their exports to the rich North American market.

An important evidence of European total capture is the French re-joining of NATO Command under President Nicolas Sarkozy. That singular geopolitical suicidal act closed any gap of difference in the European space as far as US is concerned.  By formally linking their geopolitical future with Washington DC, the subservience phase becomes completed and the case for the west finally closed.

The haemorrhage of leadership in Europe led by Berlin opens another chapter economically with uncontrollable descent in standard of living and deceleration of income across the board except for the elite. The economic space barely makes 1% annual growth rate for many years with entire countries imploding such as Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain and Ireland with other unnamed basket cases. In their miserable states and intransigence of Berlin, the perceived powerhouse, their important assets have become welcome chips for Beijing and other large sovereign wealth funds.  The recent past collapse of the French government attributed to erstwhile ministers’ squabble on the merits of austerity measure/neoliberal agenda is significant. Europe is now a space of austerity measures suffocating majority for the benefit of the minority.

These funds and their handlers have learnt how to pick up items of investment like airports, seaports, railways and other fixed asset on the cheap with huge multiplier profits. This is the same structural adjustment programme World Bank/IMF imposed on developing countries few decades ago. Now we wait for the capital flight from Europe to investor countries. In any case these sovereign wealth funds have becomes new geopolitical actors holding Europe at the stake and milking their many strategic assets for many years to come.

Now comes the Bear

One would have expected Europe to welcome and appreciate Europe that extends to the Urals powerful or powerless. The strategic interest of countries and the continent should have been a higher leverage for constructing an improved relationship with Moscow. On the contrary weak Europe invested their asset and resources to sabotage their core interest even when huge economic opportunities are at stake especially for those countries in the doldrums.

By placing sanction on Moscow, the thesis of subservience is confirmed; the leadership crisis in Europe is certified especially in Berlin and Europe as a space of retrogression is unequivocally entrenched. Geopolitically and geoeconomically, Europe as a space of economic downturn is clarified. If the planet is spread out on a flat 2 dimensional map, other continents and regions will display rises in annual economic growth (height) of various proportion, while Europe will surely be a large depression as a promontory of Asia.

In the latest round of sanction against Moscow, Europe was the loser before its enactment.  Even Egypt and South American countries are potential beneficiaries of the huge Russian market. When states or continent groups design geopolitical policies in contrary to the spirit of their strategic interest, then their raison d’etre has ceased to exist. Unexamined leadership is not worthy of existence.

Investment in Perpetual Conflict (Weaponistan) – Epitome of Sustainable Development

Introduction

Post World War 2 security and stability around the world provides curious spatial patterns, relationships and trends. Despite the natural disposition to take each new conflict as it emerged rather than on its merit (which is mostly absent), deeper appreciation of each conflict is the avoidance of isolating them. By collating all the conflicts over longer periods of time in specific locations, better understanding of these conflicts will become clearer in terms of their timing, specific theatre, mineral/political resource at stake, motives, players, instigators, weapons suppliers and funders. Full capture of these variables over time and space allows for wider scope for informed & contextual analysis disparate from mantra of the usual suspects who are rather unbeknown investors in Weaponistan.

Weaponistan

It is not a place rather an existing context and phenomenon of the times with regard to weapons and conflicts. Weaponistan is associated with interlocking, networked & powerful individual geopolitical hierarchical relationships connecting political, media, economic, infrastructure, weapon production, mineral extraction, logistics interests etc.  These are sections of crème de la crème of the global power elite with no fixation for countries but concentrate on specific interest at a given period. Based on an overriding ‘grand strategy’ of the hegemonic power currently emanating from Washington DC, these are investors in perpetual conflict as a sustainable development.  By leveraging the instruments and assets of the state, state interest in conflated with narrow elite interest towards extraction and accumulation of targeted interest accelerated by violence perpetrated by investment in a cycle of perpetual conflict.

USSR Exit

The dynamic of conflicts in the cold war hung on the premise that since both nuclear armed superpowers cannot confront each other in detente, then the whole world becomes open space of conflict investment. There were few conflicts where both superpowers were on the same side which was an exception. An example is the 1967 – 1970 Nigeria-Biafra War. In most cases, all conflicts were proxy battles wedged between Moscow and Washington DC, both sides supplying killing equipments and killing advisers in a sustainable development akin to Murder Incorporated a la Bruce Springsteen.

The 1991 demise of USSR changed the geopolitical calculus that left United States only standing, even though there is no evidence Washington DC defeated Moscow as the myopic, triumphalist & hubristic mantra goes. As this change sank in with parallel expectation that post WW2 peace will finally reign, no such thing happened. Rather conflicts were spatial reconfigured, displaced and reinforced. Weaponistan did not shrink rather its sales boosted as the movers and shakers sought for higher profits around the world mostly for states seeking her defensive posture.

Under Washington DC Watch

Since US hegemony hubristically consolidated without inhibition, rather with renewed vigour against any suggestion of challenge Washington DC moved to expand its military asset including military bases and associated hardware to provide conditions for new conflicts in Africa, Middle East and Asia. Interestingly South America finally escaped from the clutches of perpetual (ideological) conflicts leaving only Colombia to hold the can of worms with FARC. 

Defence budget of South American countries have increased with purchases of US hardware mostly except Venezuela where Commandante Hugo Chavez revolutionised her military doctrine, her defensive capability and sourced new suppliers of hardware.  By shifting attention to Moscow as her major supplier, Caracas invested huge resources to purchase ready materiel, training and capabilities to prevent supply hostage of erstwhile suppliers. Weaponistan grew fatter! As the new mission against ‘terrorism’ took shape, Weaponistan took a shine in permitting United States to open 2 new war fronts in quick succession in Afghanistan and Iraq. 

These conflicts regardless of their origins have only one beneficiary, Weaponistan. With trillions of dollars creamed off huge treasury bonds and trades in dollar as global reserve currency, expensive weapons were purchased and deployed to fight ‘terrorism’ which in the process created new dimension of the same conflict or new conflicts from the old theatres. By so doing these conflicts are easily manipulated to sustain for long periods in the same old name of ‘war against terrorism’.  War for the sake of war!

When the so-called ‘terrorists’ are compared with sophisticated and advanced US military machine, the odds are very high in favour of the latter. However if these conflicts are subjected to forensic analyses it becomes clear that these are not conflicts where clear victory or completion is the objective. The grand strategy is perpetual conflicts which stakeholders of Weaponistan perceive as sustainable development. 

The interlocking relationships between political animals and captains of weapon industry are very dense that instruments and other resources of the state are commandeered in disguise to sustain unsubstantiated threats. 

Iraqi conflicts has recycled in the last decade from 1991 kicking Iraqis out of Kuwait, to protecting the Kurds in the mountains with Non-Fly Zones, 2003 seeking exit of Sadaam Hussein, to giving Iraqis ‘democracy’ & ‘freedom’, to current balkanising of Iraq with no clear strategic follow-up plan. Fast forward to destabilisation of Syria and 'unveiling' of ISIS whose ‘caliphate’ is coterminous to areas with huge crude oil deposit and struggle to clarify the fate of Iraqi Kurdistan. 

Why should ISIS or their handlers seek Baghdad with such rich deposits at hand? Who is ISIS master/handler? Just a division of Weaponistan deployed to distract in a maze of obvious contradiction! Forget about the religious scarce, a detritus of deliberate misinformation!  So Weaponistan is unperturbed. US is ‘back’ to Iraq with new advanced weapons which they refused to supply to Baghdad despite receiving payment. Mistakes are not deliberately made more than once without strategic initiative or purpose.

The cauldron of Middle East continues to boil under US watch whether it is Israeli attack on Gaza, destabilisation of Syria, maintenance of open border & easy movement of assets between Arabstan and Afghanistan. Middle East is sustained as the main theatre of the biggest weapon space and market for over 5 decades. Middle East is now sure bet of serious conflict every 3 years, huge arms purchase every 5 years and daily news of conflicts as a 'therapy' a la Anglo media. 

One may even go as far as to suggest that Middle East is a metageographical metaphor dedicated to conflict and uncertainty. This case is unfolding as an unstoppable reconfiguration of geopolitical reality in the metageography sweeping round with some player struggling to understand, contain or take advantage of it.  By and large the metageography has failed as a political project as it has become a huge island of instability where apparent conflict winners seem to be real isolated losers despite heavy investment in the best Weaponistan has to offer. It equally carries the potential of finally humbling United States as a superpower. Suggest that it maybe US graveyard!

US AFRICOM in bloom

As USSR gradually wound down under the double toxic doses of perestroika and glasnost, tectonic changes started emerging across Africa.  With the last geopolitical duel finally shifting against US in the 1988 Battle of Quito Cuanavale Angola showing the hand writing on the wall for Apartheid South Africa. It was only time before Zaire’s Mobutu had his last smile. Of course Chinese economic onslaught continues profitably and unprotected, Africa was obviously open, unprotected and attractive in her rich geology.

As a contested continental territory despite deliberate distraction in the Middle East & Afghanistan, US did not stomach challenge in a distant backyard.  By creating US AFRICOM, an instrument of recolonisation of Africa by force of arms was deployed initially sleeping in Germany, another conquered space in the heart of Europe. Time will open up for real action with wider spatial implications especially in those real estates with richer geologies and Chinese investments.  Despite Nelson Mandela’s frothing at the mouth, he betrayed his people in his 'evening' Damascene neoliberal conversion.

Earlier Djibouti in the eastern Horn was opened up as a military base for ‘war against terrorism’ where drones take off and land. Prior to that 1993-1995 Somalia’s drubbing of the sole superpower brought it a pyrrhic victory that made it ungovernable. Somalia is not a waste land, her geology and continental shelves paint a different story. Weaponistan knows it very well. Hence the many East African countries pretending to do peace-keeping while seeking for exploration concessions!

The processes that unleashed Rwandan genocide have converged into state building, clientism and export of destabilisation to former Zaire (DRC) with over 6 million murdered while its rich mineral resources are looted. Limb-cutting Belgian Emperor Leopold didn't that foresee he’ll be bested in his blood-letting game even by African sons farther east in a geopolitical high risk game. Even by armies without states!

In 2011 the sole obstructer of US AFRICOM had his country decimated and dismantled, with it the last figment of Africa independence went in his murder. Now Libya’s presence is defined by a struggle of complexity and existential inconclusion.  Weaponistan ensured normality of violence to vapourise peoples of this glorious land. China and Russia investment got lost with no compensation as Africans were murdered without dignity. No democracy, no freedom and no peoples to reap the promised benefits; only blood, tears and death remain in abundance. Libya's oil is gone by stealth.

Mali in time followed as the usual suspects descend on the territory with the usual excuse targeting sands, inselbergs and isolated habitat. Failing France pretend to take the lead when it can no longer justify its erstwhile role as a European power in European theatre. Bamako is now ‘humanitarian’ heaven with credible humanity as Weaponistan devises means to control her rich gold veins among other rich mineral deposits. 

Finally the giant of Africa that refused to fly gave up her wings. Fluctuating between conflict investments, Weaponisation recently used Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND) to extract tribute and ‘settlement’ from Abuja and then disappeared. In its place, Boko Haram rose to prominence and is riding towards becoming the 37^th state of Nigeria with increasing capturing & retention of territories. Nigeria’s defence ministry’s part of Weaponistan has failed to deliver despite huge budgets which may have been lost in translation. 

Conclusion

As Iraq is showing clearly, Weaponistan has an investment cycle with potential to sustain itself so far purchase and utility is available. This can be referred to demand with purpose. Weapons can be purchased for either offensive or defensive requirements. Since the end of USSR, conflicts have remained sustained in Middle East, spatially displaced in various locations in Africa and lately taken hold in Afghanistan. These conflicts and sparks of instability leave a trail of events, action and resources only attributed to the complex activities of Weaponistan mostly under the imprimatur of the sole superpower, United States.

US – Africa Summit: Last Step Of An Ill-fated Dance of Pretence

US - Africa Realism. Source: BBC

Introduction

The recent news of a summit between US President and African Heads of governments/states to discuss trade, economy and other matters of importance is awkward. This article attempts to review the motives of the summit, including the timing and the performance of African-Americans as part of US institutions towards Africa in the last decade.

Geopolitics

The timing of the news and event hit the headlines in part as distraction to US lack of leadership in boiling Middle East and consistent inflexibility to readapt to fast changing world.  The last few weeks have exposed the hollowness of her honest brokerage that has seen incontestable assault on Gaza on US watch. In addition, the recent pyrrhic EU sanction on Russia under Washington DC pressure is another disinformation. It is also the case that when western countries are on the ropes in global politics, they suddenly turn to Africa on a pretended charity mission to rescue their battered images for a time. Obama’s White House is simply following this ‘rule’ to the letter but African leaders and Africans are not stupid.

2^nd Best

One can only review Africa’s economic history of the last 2 decades and wonder who are the drivers, enabler and obstructers. China has taken the lead in among other things accepting that ‘something positive is in Africa’ and that ‘something good comes out of Africa’. Chinese investment in Africa is increasing and trade between China and many African countries is growing astronomically. This is accompanied by rising economic development. Despite misgivings in many quarters’ especially pro-colonialist and neoliberal colonialists, Chinese investment in the African continent is not another form of imposition or colonialism. Nature abhors a vacuum and when the ‘end of history’ swept away the last vestige of US challenge, she abandoned her erstwhile supporters like Mobutu in Africa in the usual ambivalence & hubris that Africa is a basket case.

The last decade has seen increased interaction and trade between African countries and China which naturally led to among other others things increased diplomatic engagements crowned with summits of heads of state which US is now attempting to mimic. This vehicle has allowed both parties in the African continent and Beijing to progress, fine-tune and advance policies in various areas. The increased trade and interaction has equally enabled many African states to open Yuan accounts in their central banks to facilitate trading with Beijing and vice versa. No matter how small these accounts are, their existence and use signify diminished role of US dollar.

For United States to suddenly realise the importance of Africa as a serious player in trade and economy is very rich. She simply arrived late to the party and equally confirmed her inflexibility to abandon dominance for leadership with inaccurate barbs against China. The figure above is an uncontested summary. African leadership is not stupid despite their overall negative performance as they see through Washington DC’s inconsistency, insincerity, ambivalence & diplomatic retreat on Africa.

Space of Conflict

Currently US policy on Africa is clear. African continent is a space for geopolitical confrontation for her rich mineral and water resources. To counter potential interest in Africa’s wealth even in the sphere of investment that will benefit Africans, US have deployed US African Command as a vehicle to foil such investments. Complementary to deploying few boots on the ground, US military is all around African capitals providing unwanted and counter-productive military aid/assistance as an extension of ‘war on terror’.  Military bases, listening posts and drone bases now litter Africa lying in wait for the ‘enemy’. Most of these military investments were accelerated under Obama presidency since the main opposite was brutally cut down in the murder of Col Ghaddafi.

Since 1994 the Rwandan genocide has opened vistas of opportunities on the eastern flank. With US support new regime in Kigali contributed to new genocide in the Democratic Republic of Congo while illegally exploiting the country’s mineral resources. Kampala is another collaborator in advancing US interest in the region.

If Obama where an African, the substance could have trickled down in respecting the continent by avoiding any form of rape and pillage of Mother Africa by western interest. No, his sense of history is either non-existence or too obtuse to be comprehensive. By taking the lead from behind, he unleashed violence that simply removed Ghaddafi’s Libya from the face of the earth.  It is now the ultimate destination for freedom lovers and democracy enthusiasts! If Obama knew his history he would have appreciated that Libya is more African than Arab.

The next target turn toward Egypt where Obama’s US supported the overthrow of an elected government with full-spectrum violence and bloodletting. If Obama knew his history, he would have realised that Egypt is more African than Arab. Libya and Egypt are 2 giants of Africa that are summarily dehumanised and de-Africanised just to serve ambivalence and unproductive US interest. It is interesting to watch US uncoordinated retreat from Tripoli, Libya few weeks ago after arriving with confidence of Tomahawks, Hellfires and B-52s in 2011.

No Interlocutors in African Americans

While the narrative of US can be juxtaposed with increased profile of African-Americans in the last 5 decades, one can certify that since the end of apartheid African America has receded significantly on the African scene. Since all politics is local, all US politics is ethnic. Despite the warnings of both Dr Martin Luther King Jr and Malcolm X that African-Americans cannot claim full legitimacy divorced from Africa, post-cold war US African-American politicians and political class no longer care about their origins. If anything, they are focused on becoming ethnically something else.

It is for this reason that no African politician has genuine engagement with African-American politicians and political class.  While Indian-Americans, Chinese-Americans, Irish-Americans and Israeli-American to name a few are making the most of US resources and assets for the benefits of their homelands, similar comparisons cannot be made for African-Americans. One must conclude that Africa/Africans have no interlocutors in African-Americans including President Obama.

Post-Summit Reality

Geopolitical transition is fast on the tracks with serious reconfiguration on the cards. Whichever way Africa is placed on a potentially comfortable position of playing to strength in taking advantage between the falling world and the rising world.  There is a clear choice for African capitals in choosing between dominance and leadership as well as recalibrating her aspirations in seeking solutions from the north. Evidence indicates that positive and productive solutions have become mobile and are concentrating in the South America and Asia not from a one-off catch-up summit in the north. This will be way forward in the next generation.

New Chinese High Speed Link Thai Offensive & Geopolitics

Map of Proposed HSL Thailand Network original sourced from Guardian

Introduction

The recently announced deal between Bangkok and Beijing for Chinese investment to upgrade and integrate Thailand rail system into her high speed link (HSL) is significant on many levels. Nevertheless the timing and scope of the project contains important geostrategic and geopolitical dimensions which must be understood vividly. This understanding must be articulated with openness towards the gradual reconfiguration of global economic power in the Asia and the shifting of emphasis on ongoing challenges of hegemonic imperatives.

Domestic Insertion

The deal in itself is a domestic victory for the military government in Bangkok as it reconfirms its legitimacy to the local audience especially the elite with evangelical contamination & connection to the western neoliberal actors. Nevertheless it is equally a coup de grace and assertiveness to Western partners who harbour sense of illusion for the absence of an elected government. For the most part the deal (though the details haven’t fully emerged) offers Bangkok investment benefit of Chinese funding, procurement of HSL system and transfer of HSL technology. One can only affirm brilliance of Bangkok military leaders for such geostrategic decision that equally elevates Thailand into new heights of development in the future.

It is equally important to stress that for Beijing, this is a testament of her pragmatic view of Bangkok as a pillar of stability in the region as well as a reconfirmation of her maxim of non-interference in other country’s domestic affairs.  This is a huge weight of legitimacy for Bangkok.

Chinese Western Front

Contrary to some analysts’ limited conclusions, this project potentially has important benefits for China beyond the unpacked enigma of dominance by sections of western media. Western part of China is trailing the eastern part in the economic boom and economic growth. Increasing the role of Kunming as south-eastern regional hub connected with HSL will surely elevate her profile in trade, interaction and mutual integrations between China and South East Asian countries. Strategically Kunming and the rest of western China may have the opportunity to advance their economic development channelled through greater interaction with Thailand, Laos, Malaysia and other countries in the contiguous neighbourhood.

Thailand Incorporated

For China to maximise integration and upgrading of Thai railways as a gateway to its western part, it is imperative that railway development is the first of many investments necessary for obtaining full-spectrum benefits of interaction and economic development in the long term. There is no doubt that Thailand as a whole will become an epicentre of Chinese economic diplomacy and activities with huge multi-phased investments.

Direct connection between Chiang Khong, Thailand and Luang Namtha, Laos is inevitable in order to maximise efficiencies although Ventiane may need to be assuaged (if possible) for such deal to progress. Such a deal will actually diminish in the short-term Laos apparent strong role in contributing to Beijing economic & transportation blueprint. Empirically one must appreciate Laos small population, smaller market and land-locked geography. If such a deal is clinched it means that Chinese goods & freights picked up from any southern Thai seaport will travel uninterrupted overland to China. This makes Thailand a space of security, durability and dependability. This is a geostrategic coup for Bangkok.

New seaport and railway investments on the eastern coast opposite Surat Thani in the South (avoiding the national parks) must complement cost-reduction, increased efficiency while providing fully integrated transportation system serving Chinese interest and if possible upstaging other dominant players within Thai economic space. The long term benefits to the Thai economy and population will be massive in complementing her current initiatives towards positive enhancement across the country.

Asian Pivot a la Containment

There is no doubt that for Beijing this so-called HSL diplomacy is a nuanced response to United States containment policy labelled Asian Pivot. No hegemonic power tolerates challenge, and if required military confrontation is deployed following series of ill-fated policies. It is interesting to note that the HSL project avoided Vietnam while touching small footprint of Malaysia in its southern most point before stopping in Singapore. The consideration is significant because as time goes on South China Sea may become to all intents and purposes a conflict space as part of US policies challenging Beijing’s supremacy in the region.

Beijing may have calculated this scenario and is responding proportionately. With Philippines and Vietnam leading legitimate ownership challenge of the sea (based resources in the) area and in addition to Beijing’s intransigence to amicable settlement; recent re-militarisation of Japanese Armed Forces and increasing US incursion will surely generate uncertainty for commercial sea transportation as far as Beijing is concerned. South China Sea will always be the ‘weak spot’ and underbelly for potential destabilisation of China in the short to medium terms.

With Middle East and Arab world almost eliminated from serious global geopolitical significance bar crude oil sales, Europe neutered militarily and politically & Russia satisfied with global power devoid of dominance beyond her near-abroad; United States is unconstrained despite her economic woes to discomfort Beijing closer to home.

Thai in the Pivot

One can only surmise that Bangkok is focused on sustaining her vital strategic and national interests. With interaction and diplomatic experiences with China for over a millennium, close social and cultural & economic exchanges over this period and beyond offers her tangible tools to ensure stability and survive in a potentially uncertain neighbourhood. With India on the western flank and China in the north, and US smouldering of decline as evidenced recently in her undignified retreat from Tripoli, Libya; Bangkok needs to re-calibrate new geostrategic and diplomatic tools for a nuanced navigation of the potential choppy waters of Asia in the post-cold war era. There is no doubt that as Asia turns into the new global economic epicentre and powerhouse, Thailand will surely obtain a sizeable share of the strategic pie.

Latest Cost-Free Assault on Occupied Gaza Population?

Introduction

The latest Israeli assault on Gaza comes on the heels of Hamas-Fatah reconciliation, turmoil in Iraq, intense conflict in Syria and ongoing attrition in Kiev.  For all these conflicts, there is lack or absence of clarity on who holds the upper hand, there is clarity of who started each conflict even in disguise and more over there is no end in sight. If there is anything called balance, it can be discerned with great difficulty in all the mentioned conflicts but the common denominator is increasing number of casualties. In the case of Gaza assault it is difficult to make comparisons as they do not exist however a change in the method of the occupied has changed the game for the occupier.

Part One

In the last decade Israeli military has concentrated its efforts to confronting non-state actors even despite who may be on paper their inferior capabilities, assets and manpower.  One may rightly question the motive for such waste of resources in responding to non-state actors military distractions. Justifications are litany from ‘war on terror’ play-book to bubbling hubris of military superiority to unalloyed support of the United States can be cited. 

In most of these conflicts, it is almost impossible to capture the objectives or rather the objectives may be directed as phased approached to perpetual conflict with non-state actors. Hezbollah and Hamas seem to be given the opportunity to contextualise their raison d'être as resistance movements by their opponent in the military theatre.  They regroup and become ready for the next round despite the pounding and blood-letting from some of the most lethal weapons ever made by man.

Latest Offensive

The current attack on Gaza followed the previous patterns of sharp infliction of unimaginable pain including deaths. For a people under occupation for over 2 generations, who have died many times over before, death is no more a killer to them. May be they have conquered death even though it may not have been their a priori objectives.  With all the tools of disinformation and media manipulations, there is consensus that Gaza is not a military theatre of importance or significance rather a sorry refugee camp holding so much people against their will and aspiration.

The convergence of daily war of dehumanisation and no-hold bar military bombardment may not make much difference to the residents. In any case, war is war regardless of its shape, form and style. Sadly the world looked on, the powerful become powerless to intervene and stop the bloodshed, senior diplomats jump in defiance of history for the most irresponsible hyperbole.

Game Change

As Israeli onslaught continues unchallenged and uncontested, the occupied weak responses have gained new length and distance to target locations/assets of importance in Israel. Few days ago, it was reported that some missiles fired by Hamas landed near Tel Aviv airport. There is no reason to believe that the missile caused physical damage but the real damage unfolded immediately, lack of confidence of aviation safety in Israeli airspace. Despite being the primary support of Israel, United States authority immediately suspended all flights between US and Tel Aviv, and then other countries in Europe and Russia followed suit. 

The message is clear that western powers can only intervene in this conflict unless their economic interest is at stake. Contextually all of a sudden they have started communicating with Hamas and Gazans in a curious way unimaginable in the past. This communication has raised the stake higher by appropriating the silence and turning it into a weapon of assertiveness and attention between Gazans and the rest of the world especially the western powers. 

Even though western media have refused to run with the story properly, the economy damage of flight suspension between Tel Aviv and the rest of her major partners is incalculable and decisive. Unfortunately this will not be a burden borne solely by Israel rather by her partners as well. So long as the conflict continues, whether missiles are fires into Israel or not, confidence of her partners will not be restored until this conflict ceases without encouraging new one in the future. Hamas will feel empowered that the game changer has in part contributed to slowly eliminating Gaza’s physically isolation from the rest of the world.

Loser’s Match

Gaza’s geostrategic importance is much more than meets the eyes. Nevertheless that sparse and tiny piece of real estate and her territorial water holds vast resources. Gazans need to heal first in a post-conflict period of renewed humanisation and reconscientisation. This conflict and others running parallel to it have extended exposure of United States as a geopolitical power in decline. While it may be construed that Israel has her support, Israel is surely making her way out through this conflict. United States is caught in her own Gordian knot increasingly impossible to cut or even understanding its unique tying method. 

The cumbersome and inflexible attention to diplomacy, exuberance of creating instability in the region ad infinitum, and the increasing isolation in the world as a negative power has culminated in diminishing US standing. United States diminution on the world stage is vividly caught by the hurried and trepid retreat & evacuation of her citizens in Tripoli few day ago. It didn't make the headlines but the subtext is very clear; we can be counted to be the destroyer-extraordinary while we retreat in allergic reaction to peace & stability.  What is Ghaddafi's take on it?

While the Arab world is mortally weakened with instability as the staple in most of her capitals, Egypt seem to have obtained most of the unsavoury dish.  In her bid to isolate Hamas and Gazans, the general in civilian clothes over Cairo only extended known perception of Egypt’s role as a puppet & a fallen star of the Arab world. By locking and throwing away the key of Rafah crossing even as the conflict rages, Cairo lost much political and diplomatic capital due to myopia and poor appreciation of history. The dignity of Egypt as an African country and an Arab nation is severely diminished.  General Sisi may have usurped power for himself but Egypt is haemorrhaging credibility.

Saudi Arabia continues her losing streak on all her entries. By working hand in glove with Tel Aviv on many diplomatic files and shadowing Cairo towards much needed legitimacy, Riyadh is constrained in possessing a fully settled balance sheet. In Syria, Iraq and now Gaza; Riyadh is now relegated to partaking in flurry of diplomatic activities with no concrete results to show.

Only time will tell when the conflict will end and finally the Arab Street will declare her winners. Surely they will be few and orphaned.  As for Gazans, the process of concluding this conflict opens a window that will inevitably place them on the pedestal where their dignities can no longer be denied.

Debts Collector Geopolitics

Introduction

Since 2008 global economic collapse triggered by bursting of United States housing market bubble, a new form of relationship between financial services providers & customers on one hand and between the state and finance/banking has emerged.  For most customers it has become a nightmare in some sense where the outcome has turned into double betrayal by both the banks and the state, while for the financiers, banksters and financial terrorists; they have become untouchables who have finally melded with the same unreconstructed state. Above all, United States reigns supreme not just for protecting the untouchables of their country, rather for appropriating the crisis for collecting ‘rent’ in any country. Anything short of challenging ‘too big to fail’! No prosecution, no legal challenge, just debt or rent collection externally to settle geopolitical score.

Retrogressive Pacesetting

By the time President Obama took office in 2008, there was a pregnant expectation of the unknown by the global banking elite especially their US branch of the intentions of the greenhorn president.  Pundits and media channels in the US ran endless bulletins of potential culling of banks, taming Wall Street and bailing out Main Street. However bearing in mind that Obama Presidential Campaign was in part managed and funded by the same Wall Street, Main Street had no chance. By the time the new president unveiled his new economic team, it became apparent that more of the same will emerge. In a sense the banking elite realised how powerful they are of course in concert with their political conspirators in Congress, as Obama rejected and quashed any suggestion of prosecution and therefore sustained ‘too big to fail’ toward orthodoxy.

Instead of moving for the jugular and prosecute the wheeler-dealers of the global economic debacle, bailout instruments were approved internally on the one hand while debt collection scheme in billions of dollars was deployed as a measure of geopolitical control. Huge banks like Bank of America were fined billions of dollars for failing one regulation or another. Apparently these fines where appropriated and presented as sufficient punishment when in actual fact these were slaps on the wrists. The train was set for reconfiguration of geopolitical banking structure with US extra-territorial judicial weapon of economic warfare to go after any bank/state suspected of running foul of her regulations.

Dollar World

As the world biggest economy with its money as global reserve currency, most of the major banks in the world trade in US dollars where in the commodities, currency and stock markets. This architecture gives US enormous power and influence which is enhanced with advanced telecommunication and internet technologies. On this stage, countries or states are mere building blocks for the sole superpower to managed, control, abjure and punish. As the biggest single market in the world, these banking operations are influenced more by US banking regulations than their national regulations.

On this count it becomes apparent that the fate of Euro and Yuan are still very remote and tied to the whims of US Federal Reserve Bank unless their supporting national politics projects sufficient power to breakout.  As a superpower with no room for challenge, these currencies have no chance to thrive within the global financial architecture designed and cultivated for sole US national interest. In the era of economic warfare, any country or bank that defies US authority will be subjected to the most ruthless response worse than any violent assault or aerial bombardment. US Treasury with the twin underlings of International Monetary Fund and World Bank are positioned to ensure that all or most central banks take orders to conform including but not limited to having ‘independent’ central banks, open stock markets, convertible and floating currencies and currencies & trade tied to the US dollars.

Punishment for the Big Lads  

One may surmise that United States intended to make the most from the global economic crisis without actually prosecuting those who oversaw the collapse as a new geopolitical weapon to put allies in line and in check. In 2009 Switzerland got the initial taste with massive fine of $885 million on UBS on charges of misrepresentation and tax evasion. Other fines related to currency manipulation may reach $8 billion dollars. Credit Suisse was then next to be hammered with a fine of $2.6 billion on charge of tax evasion. The government in Berne got full spectrum salvo of US power.

In 2012 HSBC, a UK bank was fined nearly $2 billion dollars for money laundering. As usual there were no prosecution for the bank executives just happy smile for increasing coffers of US Treasury.  Another British bank, Standard Chartered, received its fine of over $300 million for charge of money laundering.

In 2014, French bank, BNP Paribas was fined nearly $10 billion by US regulators on violating sanction rules. While other fines are equally healthy, the timing and context of BNP Paribas is interesting. One must recognise that towards the end of former President Sarkozy’s reign, he approved France rejoining of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) military command. This was contrary to a decision made by General Charles De Gaulle as a counter-measure of ensuring French independence against his perceived Anglo-Saxon domination of global affairs. One must also consider that President Sarkozy was at one with Washington DC (leading from behind) in the betrayal and murder of Col. Ghaddafi and Libya in 2011.  It is also not lost on observers that Paris has reinvigorated her competition with London on US favourite on ‘special relationship’ starting with President Sarkozy and continued with President Hollande.

As a new war front opened up in Syria, France rose to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Washington DC to potentially pound that defiant space into ruin & rubble having successfully completed earlier tasks in Libya and Mali. However opportunity for striking Russian near abroad on her under belly in Ukraine opened up new prospect for US to divide European relations with Moscow. While the rhetoric mounted across European media for sanctions against Moscow, the reality was different as many countries have strong economic ties with Russia including France.

Russian contract with France to supply her with military warships became subject to US interference or rather a test of French loyalty. French insistence of meeting the contract obligations including retain locals jobs was perceived as defiance by Washington DC. Of course as they say, they will be consequences with or without international law.

One Man Standing

US hegemony is intolerant of challengers in any sphere. Any suspicion of disloyalty is rewarded with consequences. Any aberration or infraction is an opportunity to bring its might to bear more so in the economic sphere hence economic warfare. In the hierarchy of hegemony, US allies has limited scope to express independence and follow it through. While some countries are presented and slammed as enemies, rogues and failed; it is evident that those termed allies, friends and moderates at different times suffer severe consequences even beyond experiences expected for enemies. 

Sections of global power elite in various allied countries are willing to accept these painful slaps and thumps as strategic prize to maintain their insertion in the good book of the single superpower. Therefore the context of friendship and enmity of United States is rather very complex and contradictory for observers. However it is important to concentrate on specific events and actions at particular times and locations in order to appreciate unique outcomes and responses. 

Dark Geopolitical Clouds Over Iraqi Kurdistan

Introduction

The ongoing manifestation and expansion of events set out decades ago in Iraq are generating uncomfortable results and complex uncomfortable outcomes. One of the outcomes is the emergence and boldness of Iraqi Kurds in expressing their self-determination on the potential ashes of erstwhile Iraq. It is the position of this article that many parties including Iraqi Kurds are publicly expressing their misreading of history towards independence which may come back to haunt them which after all may not be another surprise.

Core Acknowledgement

To put it mildly no one in the region want the Kurds.  Across different countries where they have substantial population, they are not only treated as minorities, their existence is grossly denied through some of the most repressive and oppressive political and geopolitical policies. Across the board, their culture, language, history and human rights are trampled upon. So as a people they have grown accustomed to pain, suffering, abuse and betrayals. Nevertheless they have never caved in or given up their dreams of self-determination.  Despite the constancy of pain, events have not been static or stationary as they interlock in complex relationships and brazen manoeuvres including armed struggle to press their demand in different countries.  

Geographically and demographically, the Kurds are surrounded and locked in over time. They are surrounded by very powerful neighbours who have been and remain unwilling to grant them basic freedoms and human rights. Pressed down in the North West by Kemalist Turkey defined only on Turkishness, the Arabs hemmed them in on other sides with little room despite the gloried exploits of historical figure, Saladin, except in the West where Iran consolidated its centralised structure on Persian lines.

The Journey At Hand

This is the first time in the last recent memory that Kurds anywhere have been able to cobble together a political entity in the maze of their complex neighbourhood that is tolerated for more than a decade. This initiative came on the back of 1991 United States led effort to contain Saddam Hussein adventurism in Kuwait. Establishment of no-fly zone in northern Iraq offered important platform to the emergence of political Kurdistan on the ground while laying the foundations for Iraq disintegration. Whether this was a well thought out policy or outcome made along the way by the US State Department remains contested nevertheless the basic motivating ingredient, crude oil, remains the critical factor.

It is equally important to review positions of various Arab capitals especially Riyadh on this development if at all their attention where focused on it.  It is doubtful that Riyadh possessed and possesses clear policy on Iraqi Kurdistan even as her geopolitical master, US, returned to finish off Saddam in 2003. Their existential attention on Iran and her potential influence in a reconfigured Iraq may have blinded their rear-mirror on the issue. Ankara must have expressed her displeasure because of decades-long violent engagement with PKK within her borders. It must have been a benign geopolitical item for consideration with serious distraction in Lebanon and Iran. Tehran’s intolerant policy is entrenched.

Deployment of regime-change in Damascus led by Riyadh and backed by Washington DC must have added to the fuzziness of policy that produced important effects; successful resistance of Damascus, destabilisation of Non-African Arab World and final disintegration of Iraq post-Saddam as defined under US (occupation) sectarian imprimatur. 

Call for Independence

Successful resistance against regime-change by Damascus consolidated with a presidential election won by President Assad not only blunted US plans but has thrown Washington DC into foreign policy confusion. The implication of the Syrian conflict simply unleashed hardened forces which a very weak Baghdad cannot handle even though US continues to shift blame and responsibility. In this maze of destabilisation, Iraqi Kurdistan authorities have been making strategic moves towards greater autonomy including but limited to unilateral crude oil sales in collusion with Ankara.  It will be interesting how ‘protector of the Kurds’ fits Ankara but there is a lot of pragmatism for short term gain driving such bargain.

Noises are coming out of Irbil on independence and recent statement by Israeli Prime Minister in favour of Iraqi Kurdistan independence is no surprise. Tel Aviv has always seen Saddam's Iraq as the main threat as her military support for Tehran during Iran-Iraq War testified.  Nevertheless, Riyadh may be deflated that her ally in Tehran containment is drawing the dagger into Arab heart, however it will be puzzling to distance US stand from it. 

While Israel has emerged finally as the dominant military power in the region, how such status could be sustained in a declining US economy and geopolitical clout remains to be seen, and most importantly her ever solid domestic policy of occupation. Events of the past few decades has revealed clearly that beyond holding down the occupation enterprise in West Bank and Gaza, her foreign policy and military adventures in the region have paid limited dividends. Tel Aviv is not in the position to discern Riyadh’s long term policy as Iraqi Kurdistan gains traction which may only converge with Tehran’s strategic interest strongly favouring Kurdistan containment.

Time & Space

Iraqi Kurdistan President, Mr Massoud Barzani as a veteran Kurdish politician fully understands the complex geopolitical flood confronting his enterprise. It is not lost on Mr Barzani of how he was used as a pawn and discarded by Shah of Iran in the 1970s to pressure Iraq into signing the Algiers Accord which among other things constrained Iraq’s (Arab) claims of Shatt-al-Arab waterway.

The memory of the ill-fated 1946 Mahabad Republic will be fresh which collapsed among other factors due to withdraw/ambivalence of USSR support. Parallel to this development is Moscow’s current posture of defiance and commitment to indivisible Iraq expressed in the recent rushed delivery of warplanes to Baghdad in contrast to tepid US response to similar request. Moscow’s move comes as a healthy monetary dividend, expansion of military hardware lines and assertiveness contrasting US bog down. Russia is a huge space with rich demographic and nationality diversity which is an incentive for intolerance of any suggestion of Iraqi Kurdistan independence.

While Beijing has made some noises on the general Iraqi file, her mantra of non-interference in other countries internal affairs will be strong boosted in aligning with Moscow and Tehran. Her effort to contain Uighur aspirations is a reminder of how time and space can converge towards an irritant. In any case, with US perceived as a bull in the China shop by Moscow and Beijing, there is little room to tolerate another debacle of monumental geopolitical proportions with the Ukrainian crisis still burning. While Obama’s White House may be unrestrained by re-election prospect, war weariness of US population coupled with unpleasant domestic economic realities & increasing distrust of US citizens at their political machine; short term scope of US pragmatism may be limited in the face of huge trust-deficit.

European Union is very weak politically and economically to seriously take a position beyond Washington DC on the issue. Hence, there is very grave risk of an open-ended conflict between Iraqi Kurds and other players in the scene/region who may potentially realign with opposing capitals.

Finally

Reality on the ground that currently favour Iraqi Kurdistan aspiration can be moderated but not reversed. Probably this contention may be the saving grace for reversing moves toward balkanisation of Iraq but rather open the way for actual federalisation with different sub-regions controlling their natural resources. Kurdish independence will not be tolerated by any Arab country, Turkey and Iran. Ankara has everything to play for as the reality indicates that Kurdistan’s crude exports and wider economy currently depend strongly on her goodwill and converges with her strategic interests.

Kurdish leaders and policy makers need to be pragmatic in hedging their bets towards independence while maximising their autonomous status with strategic depth to avoid another geopolitical betrayal.  One sure outcome is inevitable in Turkey; Turkish Kurds can no longer be caged.  This is an uncomfortable and radical reality to Mustafa Kemal and his current successors!