2015 Nigerian Presidential Election Patterns

Summary

Beyond rhetoric and bombastic campaigns by the 2 main political parties in the election, the outcomes indicate a complicated and complex array of voting behaviour across the board. From available data 2 important charts are generated that bring to the fore the-not-so-easy picture and insight for pundits, observers and analysts.

2015 Nigerian Presidential Election Results

Questions

1. Is the election about personalities or shifting alliances in new brands?
2. Is the election about rejecting a tired party or seeking new parties with old faces?
3. Is the geography of voting choice really about old colonial divides or an emerging post-colonial geopolitical nuance? 
4. Is ethnic nationalism/politics on the final legs or is it a pragmatic fiction?
5. Does the parties performance really say anything useful on collective decision for change or sticking with business as usual?

2015 Nigerian Presidential Election Voting Proportions

Questions

1. Did the parties really pull out all the stops?
2. Did the incumbent party invest in her apparatchiks or the trickle-down effect failed?
3. Is average voting population of 44% not similar to apathetic European voting or does it say something about population resilience in parallel to absent governments and an uncertain state?
4. Nigerians are survivors waiting for governments (elected or selected) to prove their worth. So far they are still waiting for proof the elected are serious in humanity.
5. Is the expense on campaigns including 'final' assault on NE insurgency justified?
6. It seems that winning by any party will not be the beginning of victory.

Nigerians seem to be maturing as a collective through expensive projects called national elections. Though the road is thorny, deep and rugged; huge expectation was invested in participation, process and management.  It is too early to dismiss the snoring giant and still a long way for her to pick up from hibernation. Nevertheless hope abounds that beyond elections, governance will be policy-oriented and merit-based. It does offer more hope than in many parts of the world because any change will be tangible, visible and measurable.