The ongoing tussle between Athens and Brussels/Berlin has
exposed serious fissures in the European Union architecture. However a deeper
review of the process reveals complex relationships, internal inconsistencies
and unpredictable outcomes for Greece as well as the EU. With apparent
capitulation or concessions of Athens in the first round of the geopolitical
bout, it is important to explore the strength of Greek position if any still
exists and the potential for playing such cards in a cloud of isolation.
Democratic Confusion
All of a sudden Greece is on the world stage, asserted an
analyst as if she ever went away. The new government in Athens elected for the
first time since the end of World War 2 by a free electorate arrived with
difficult prognosis. In a domestic landscape loaded with discredited bipartisan
structure and collapsed economy, the people showed their hand and voted with
their feet in full knowledge that the new government may not have many levers to
pull. It is dangerous to pursue progress with limited resources and huge
expectations. The problem was that Brussels/Berlin doesn’t want this kind of
democratic outcome. The question facing the new government and most Greeks is
thus; how will they get over the fiscal water boarding without external support
and out-of-the-box tools?
Arguments of Weakness
The battle between Athens and formidable Brussels/Berlin is
about power of which economy is part of the mix. Power projection by a hegemon
at least in a proximate space in a specific time is absolute and intolerant of
rivals or challengers. While the new
government in Athens articulated excellent proposal pre-election, it is
difficult to perceive their current success based on their publicly exclaimed
proposals. These include but are not limited to; sacrosanctity of Euro Zone
membership, anathema to capital controls, ignorance of extra-EU fiscal/monetary
assistance and sustaining previous economic agreements/arrangements.
Such proposal shouldn’t and did not send panic down
Brussels/Berlin spine. There is no risk in the short and medium terms rather
pressure is gradually building on Athens. In a sense Athens pre-emptive strike
of throwing away her main cards on the chessboard and mind you no ascendant
power negotiates to relinquish to a (weak) rival. In any case Athens was
isolated from the beginning by unnecessary self-imposition. As a small and weak
country with a divided population, the new government need to come up with
critical strategies for the next round to threaten and upset her opponents. A
case has been made suggesting that Athens first round loss to Brussels/Berlin
is a tactical victory to enable her zoom in on her rich, oligarchic tax
evading/dodging elite. Time will tell but there is no time in shifting from earlier
positions.
Renewal of Strategies of Strength
Athens must be shed of her so-called European mindset in
handling the current crisis by considering solutions beyond EU. Iceland is a
country of less than 1 million people that passed through the horrendous 2008 economic
collapse, reformed and bounced back to economic growth and renewed economic
development. The idea of seeking or negotiating change within the EU from a
position of weakness is ridiculous. The absence of a powerful extra-western
ally has hamstrung Athens a great deal. The suggestion of her proximity to
Moscow is outlandish because behind Moscow’s polite response is distrust.
Therefore Athens should start making serious allies within
various EU member states targeting parties with similar agenda in prospect of
coming elections. They should also target public opinion is various European
countries while they delay reaching far reaching agreements with
Brussels/Berlins. Greek population is already down so a few more years of
stagnation can be pragmatically maintained and sustained but no more. Only a
referendum or new election can strengthen the hand and consolidate legitimacy.
As an EU border state, Greece is one of the first points of
entry for illegal migrants from Asia and East Mediterranean. The current EU policy
is no quite narrow for these countries so far they have weak governments and
weak economies. So these illegal migrants are either held in custody and or they
slip into the country with a majority trapped in Greece. Similar cases are
obtained in Italy which has risen astronomically with EU participation in the
destruction of Libya. So much for farsighted security policy!
Athens should seek common ground with Rome on the issue while
she gradually provides legal papers to these migrants for onwards movement to
other EU member states. This policy does at least 2 things; extra resources are
freed and pressure/tension is reduced which potential takes the wind of the far
right party’s sails. In addition pressure will gradually start to mount on
other recipient EU member states of these illegal migrants from Greece whose
government will surely pay attention to Athens concerns.
A coordinated approach with Rome will bear fruits as almost
all political parties in both countries will be in agreement of various degrees
of displacing illegal migrants to locations beyond their national borders. On
this point Athens isolation will be eliminated and far right parties will be
struck out from the political scene in those countries. Compared to Italy,
Greece is geographically cut-off or buffered away from the proximate environs
of affluent Europe. Her neighbourhood is saddled with former communist
countries, areas of decade-long poor economic performance and space of neglect
& isolation. In this case the 1st law of geography/spatial auto-correlation is exemplified.
Conclusion
There is no favourable European solution to Greek economic
problem. Athens attempt at negotiation with powerful EU capitals from a
position of weakness is counter-productive. Without a serious external backer
with capital gravitas, without threat of referendum or new elections, without freezing
special attention to (too-big-to-fail) banks, without capital control, without
critical anti-austerity support in EU member states and without a national central
bank free to enact and implement independent monetary/fiscal policy; Athens
will struggle for a long time to come.
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