Nigeria Bounce from Successful Ebola Containment?

Introduction

There are few government policies which were designed and implemented with clinical efficiency to the satisfaction of all citizens, all ethnic nations, all generations and all classes in Nigeria. The successful attack and containment of Ebola, apparently, inserted by Liberian government has shown that the problem of Nigeria is not that of lack of ability but lack of will. The position of this article is to re-stress the positive expectation of similar policy implementations. It is equally the case that for Nigeria to succeed as a state, it will rest on the effectiveness and dependability of its component parts.

De-Ideologisation

There is a consensus on the problems of Nigeria and even another on the solutions. However the confusion on how the solutions are derived, how they will be implemented, the circumstances of their implementation continues to dodge logic and reason. If one patiently reviews the various political parties across most of Nigeria’s existence, one is prone to conclude that clarity of purpose and clarity of existence seem to be anathema. They are mostly vehicles for elite wealth accumulation from the ‘national cake’ and consolidation of their strategic interest which is the continued ruling of the country.

Perfect example is the current architecture or ‘nascent democracy’ which opened the space once again for the well-resource elite to coalesce into various ‘political parties’ devoid of the unusual ethnic wrangling to dominate the machinery of state through ‘selection’ processes. Obviously these parties have no legitimacy. One can conclude that these are parties of the elite, parties of the stomach, parties of the urban space, parties of English Language and so on. 

They have no principles they adhere to, they lack any ideology to tie up their expectation or any expectation of them, and they lack strategic initiative to address the issues they claim to stand for. Still it is crucial to stress that on the whole ethnic nationalism feature less in this arrangement. Elite know how to settle issues without drawing implosion as outcomes. Such weak political dimension doesn't and will not prepare the ground for successful positive representation of Nigeria.

Abuse of Ethnic Nationalism

A lot of noise is made about ethic nationalism which is more nuanced etymologically than tribalism.  There are many gaps in inserting ethnic function in the political because in the real term, there is no evidence of satisfaction that ethnic platform provides for all under its banner & geography. If it is deposited as the progressive expression of diversity, then the logic of negative utility for portraying political advancement will be eliminated. 

So far there is no state in Nigeria with significant majority of an ethnic nation that is a focal point of high economic growth, high human development, high economic development, huge industrial production and high educational attainment. This is despite the fact that each of the states draw their full entry on the federation account.  Who accepts to be deceived by the ethnic nationalism mantra?One must migrate his/her political nuance away from misguided colonial melee which subscribed to division and disaggregation of peoples to advance geopolitical interest of the coloniser. Basic geography teaches that objects/entities that are closer have more in common than those farther apart. 

It is rather stupid to proclaim difference with gusto when an entire geopolitical neighbourhood may have started the migration journey from the same area many generations in the past. Ethnic nations do not just emerge in a neighbourhood, it is not accidental. For those who harbour the assumption of total domination of one ethnic nation against the other, you need not look further to accept a defeated position. Only blood, tears and waste will triumph with no solution in sight. Sadly the same individuals travel North to realise that they are unwanted regardless of their sub-ethnicity or Christian religiosity, Africans are not admitted period! Many irrational individuals wearing politicians garb find the temporal platform to play such ill-fated ethnic card of course for the money, wealth and position.

State Should Be Rich

Despite the inherent flaw in the political architecture that currently plays out as centralised federalism, no one can firmly stand up to successfully challenge these flaws if the those in charge of states collected their rightful resources and refuse to invest them in the peoples in whose names the resources are stolen, embezzled, corrupted and sequestered.  Aren't the citizens of states entitled to the benefits of these states in real time? In states where accountability and probity are rejected ab initio and stealing of state resources is approved with impunity, dignity will not accompany these resource recycling entities.  The only viable investment left behind is institutional decays of monumental proportion.

Some individuals are fond of comparing their states with others. My question is usually simple. How many individuals or families migrate to your state in search of work, better security and higher standard of living? How many new graduates think of your state or migrate or stay put after completing national service? There are few states in the country where performance measured in those parameters stand the test. In the name of platitude and sheer stupidity, many state officials are blinded to huge brain drain from their states to the few internal (national) attractors and foreign countries. Serious states try very hard to retain their new graduates, to recoup some of their investment and get them to have serious post-graduate links with the state beyond their origin.

At the end of the day we are confronted with litany of blindness and celebration of stupidity in many states that load up the train of excuse to justify deliberate regressive performance because ‘oil is flowing with pressure’. Be careful when you try to suggest to another Nigerian that your state is better or that your ethnic nation is smarter because you’ll be rightly confronted to present evidence.

Resource Nationalism with Human Face

Nigeria is blessed with many natural resources but petroleum have upstaged them in an intergenerational coup d’état and became king (for now).  With attention fully focused on this usurper-king, other natural resources seem to be ‘fair game’ to any and all exploiters. Even foreigners are in the act since the entire political and institutional architecture is weak.  So where is the resource nationalism? Is it only for petroleum? As finite resource, is it obvious that the bigger resource is the population? The human beings, the citizens!

Projection will always indicate increase in production in the coming years.  It is also evident that the oil exploration and extraction is taking place in a dehumanising situation of Nigerians under whose lands these resources are flowing from.  Is the current and long term extraction of resources sustainable? How can a state be enriching and imposing poverty simultaneously? It is not an existential struggle but a deliberate celebration of mischief, abuse and regression. It is equally an evidence of instability of the mind, instability of purpose and opaqueness of collective raison d'être.

Conclusion

Positive hope for Nigeria is not misplaced. Historical evidence indicates that development and advancement follows patterns and breaking the spell of maldevelopment is a deliberate calculation. The elite have a responsibility to lead the attack but history is replete with examples of their failure and the outcomes. No status remain unchanged after few generations, Nigeria is currently not ready for an honourable place in the comity of nations.  Just a potential for now! More work needs to be done, most importantly in understanding and redefining who we are, what we stand for and evidencing processes and institutions to buttress the claims.  Curiously the wind of geopolitical change may force convergence of pleasant storms from the East and doldrumic whimper from the West to our collective strategic advantage.

Matters Arising From US Ebola Strategy

Introduction

The last few weeks have been dominated by two ubiquitous constructions in the Anglo-US media; Daesh (ISIS) and Ebola.  While the former is a deliberate constructed continuous programme that metamorphosed into various forms in the last 2 decades, the latter suddenly took centre stage initially as a side attraction before it exploded on the back foot of misinformation and mismanagement. It is important to pay attention to US actions and reactions to delineate certain patterns, relationship and trends that suggest they intrinsically point to a US State either in a state of chaos or in gradual decline or in both states.

Charity Begins at Home

It is not worthy repeating that the countries affected by Ebola outbreak which continues as primary activity space without breaking out beyond their boundaries have the full responsibility of starting action against it. In the interim the geopolitical and geoeconomic dimensions is suggesting that these capitals maybe constrained to advance their positions even though such positions cannot be excused. 

If you observe the map below, it is obvious that the 3 primary countries form a contiguous space. In a sense Ebola outbreak is contained within this contiguous space which in part is nothing short of a miracle if internal and cross-border movements are considered. Certain laws of spatial diffusion & spatial interaction are challenged or maybe something may be suggesting an outbreak imposition rather than a natural organic outbreak.

Stable Ebola Activity Space - Devoid of Diffusion to Neighbouring Countries

How did each of the governments in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia initially reacted, identified, confirmed and tackled Ebola in each of  their territories remains to be deciphered. Were they under any form of pressure to stay timely intervention action? Did these countries share information, strategy and solutions with each other? Did they engage with neighbouring countries, regional groups, friends in high places? Sadly the western media is concentrating on the fact that NGOs first raised the alarm as if these governments are irrelevant. Surely they are perceived as the Other. It is a western thing, a Northern thing! This begs the question, is the NGO first (early warning) alarm the true picture? If it is the case, do the aforementioned governments have legitimacy?

US Stake

Prior to Ebola outbreak it is important to stress useful facts. The western media on the whole didn’t take it serious, meaning that their governments saw no need for immediate intervention since it is happening in Africa and to Africans. Obviously they maximised the benefits of delayed action. Responses only took place reactively and selectively because their citizens in the infected zones where victims as they were extracted like ticking bombs with clinical caution. United Kingdom did hers in full media glare and with military dimension in fact. However it is also a fact that United States has a biological research facility in Kenema, Sierra Leone. See Map below.

Kenema, Sierra Leone - Location of US Biological Research Facility

Until data is available, it is impossible to spatially delineate how Ebola in Sierra Leone diffused and travelled, and the relationship between the US biological facility and the outbreak. Data is urgently needed to map the pattern of spatial diffusion of Ebola in the 3 country to among other things identify possible linkages, isolated infections patterns, potential organic or inorganic diffusion including urban/non-urban divide. Naturally, one would have expected that for the sake of public diplomacy, Washington DC would have responded aggressively with the initial reports.

Active Response

The first US public response was the deployment of nearly 3000 troops to Liberia. What is unclear is whether the deployment was already scheduled to take place at the time. Whichever is the case, it is difficult to provide a causal link between the troop deployment and Ebola containment in the country.  Monrovia is rather very weak to resist any overtures from Washington DC. What was urgently needed were deployment of medical personnel, specialist professionals, equipment and interventions to any of the countries.

Rather US media went into over-drive on the unscientific dangers of Ebola with Texas Governor, cheerleading the misinformation. On the contrary Cuba, a country blocked for decades by US, deployed huge resources, specialist manpower, medications, interventions and solutions borne from successful experience of global medical health diplomacy. No other country has challenged this reality directed from Havana.

One message is the clear evidence of US isolation. The peddling of misinformation to scare domestic population for a country claiming ‘exceptionalism’ and is fully connected with the world; the impression is a serious indictment on national security response. One wonders whether Texas response is coordinated with the Federal Government or rather an expression of its defiance which suggests far more toxic procedural breakdown.

Facing Ebola At Home

For reasons which are yet to be analysed, spatial diffusion of Ebola beyond the 3 primary countries is constrained and contained. Even neighbouring countries have not recorded insignificant cross-border infections. The number of global cross-border Ebola infections remains insignificant so is the number of fatalities there from.

If one focus attention on direct US contact with and confrontation of Ebola, then you begin to understand either there is a misunderstanding of an enemy or rather the investment in strategy of selective confrontation. With misinformation already saturating domestic population it became clear that US private medical system couldn't cope with the infection. Health professionals who were looking after Ebola patient contracted the infection on duty. In a single action, the myth of ‘US having the best (selective) health care system in the world’ was laid bare.

This is a compelling outcome of an aspect of US power which has no room for accessible health care on arrival for all. It also testifies to a health care system that is ill-equipped to deal with very serious infections.  While Nigeria on the other side of the world successfully confronted Ebola sparing no resources, US was caught unprepared, ill-equipped and unaccountable to her own citizens. Despite the saturation of domestic airwaves with misinformation, the president of the republic had to make a special announcement informing citizens of the real nature of Ebola, sources of infection and relevant protective measures.  In a sense Federal, state and local departments of health essence has vanished. Sign of the times!

Penultimately US introduced ‘enhanced’ interrogation techniques for receiving passengers from West Africa at her airports. The epitome of strategy! Nigeria is ready to share important lessons if US needs it. In parallel, US Ambassador to United Nations, Samantha Powers, commenced irrelevant fact-finding Ebola diplomacy to the infected countries, yes African countries. It is not lost on observers that the same individual saw it fit to suggest, lobby for and obtained approval (by another African) for the violent destruction of another African country, Libya, in 2011. This face of anti-life and anti-Africa cannot be taken seriously by Africans who only saw Hellfire drones, Tomahawks missiles and evisceration of African lives in Libya. Africa sees no friend in the current US Ambassador to the UN as much as it struggles to certify US interlocution in African affairs. No, Africans can’t!

In the final assessment and without excusing the government and its inherent procedures; US is a divided country. There is marked division between the commons and the elite despite all the platitude of freedom. A sharp divide exist between the state and federal government. Ebola has among other things exposed the nature of US government and how it functions in real time and responds to real threat. It equally points out serious gaps with officials who for various reasons fail to invest in fit-for-purpose health care system.

Conclusion

In the annals of history great powers start very small. They get to the apogee of ‘superpower’ status over time and there is only one way to go; down. Some went down quickly, others with violence, few peacefully and others in a very slow fashion. United States handling of Ebola only displayed an atomised insight into a great power’s inability to engage clearly and seriously with a strategic threat evidencing loss of focus. If other atomised insights of error are aggregated over time, a tilted plateau across the horizon will show a declining trend.

Anglo-US shambolic Anti-Strategic offering on Ebola

Introduction

Recent past or on-going Ebola outbreak is presenting important vistas on the process and mechanisms deployed in international politics by some powers. It is equally exposing a number of issues taken from granted during and immediately after the cold war, which captures parties acting on impunity because they can assert without obstruction.  It appears that in the media loaded world, confusion is the only strategy United States can offer in dealing with Ebola. Incoherent positions, misleading statements and questionable conclusions littered all over the geopolitical Augean table.

Is it a Global Threat?

The question of this sub-heading is the only rationale thing to present as a starter of a conversation. The current outbreak has been around for the past 2 quarters and a number of patterns are emerging in response by different countries.  Only 3 countries have been identified as the sources of the outbreak; Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. One must observe that countries bordering these 3 haven’t recorded Ebola outbreaks in their territories. These include Cote d’Ivorie, Mali, Guinea Bissau and Senegal. See map below.

Red line = Ebola source countries; Green arch = Ebola source country neighbours

With this knowledge, spatial epidemiology and medical geography are theoretically and methodologically sound to penetrate the layers of stupidity to identify spatial origins and diffusion patterns.  In each of these countries, temporal and spatial hotspots exist which must have been captured by the respective government. It is also clear that possible diffusion is restricted within the countries and in specific regions/locations even within cities where applicable.  So doomsday predictors and modellers cannot just have field days without ulterior motives.

While the threat of Ebola is espoused more on its incurability, it remains huge problem in the host countries. Of course the governments of those countries failed abysmally to take responsibilities for their citizens and one country (Liberia) even attempted to divert attention by sending an Ebola dying patient to another country (Nigeria). Beyond geopolitical and profit opportunities for the big pharmaceutical firms, why is United States and United Kingdom misinforming the world on Ebola? If Ebola is as dangerous as claimed i.e. transmission is by mere physical contact or by air; why haven’t flights to and from Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone not suspended?

For doomsday prophets and prophetesses who proclaim giant pandemic annihilating millions of course starting with Africans by implications, what matters most? Imposing fear through misinformation or investing in immediate containment in the host countries?

Nigeria Excellence

Liberia’s attempt to impose Ebola on Nigeria failed in a spectacular fashion. This calculated attempt to undermine the country and create instability despite Nigeria’s long investment in Liberia is a serious breach of faith and trust. Nevertheless Abuja confounded both internal and external observers by facing Ebola head-on and won. All human and material resources including entry/exit points mandatory checks were imposed. 

The only deaths that occurred were deaths of gallant professional who unknowingly attended to the Liberian-originated infected patient without requisite safety procedures. The so-called allies failed to cooperate with the urgency required. The containment success of Nigeria displays strategic initiative, robust deployment of resources and effective management of the likes not seen in Nigeria for decades.  There are no bells and whistles in the western media on Nigeria’s excellent performance. The reason being that they do not expect anything positive from Nigeria albeit Africa.

Anglo-US Confusion

It is useful to present some background to United States actions. With full attention on enhancing Arab world destabilisation, her initial response was sending a few thousand troops to Liberia. What thousands of non-medical professional soldiers will do in an infection theatre challenges imagination? With full attention on the Arab and Ukrainian fronts, Washington DC like an elephant took a long time to redirect her attention. In this guise United Kingdom lack independent policy. A number of counter-productive measures were issued which only sustains the general perception that robust strategy is now scarce on Capitol Hill.

First they flirted with ZMapp, an experimental (trial) drug with no empirically defined effectiveness. When this failed to gain traction, they resorted to misinformation of domestic population including but not limited to sharing the potential of airborne Ebola. Naturally, panic spread in many cities as panic-buying figures showed. When this no-strategy failed, they moved into confirming that Ebola patients exist in the country but have no idea of proactive action. It is on record now that US health professionals who contracted Ebola did so while treating and attending to certified patients who happen to arrive from Liberia. Their nationality is not the issue.  Available data shows that all Ebola deaths outside Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone were contracted while in one of the named countries. It is strange for US to become the first country in the world where transmission to health professional occurred within a supposed secure environment.

In the absence of immediate global panic similar to the one that followed SARS and ill-fated quick production of Tamiflu drug, western media is bombarding the world with US presidents Ebola summit. Interestingly, this followed a summit of generals with US president on possible enhancement of regime change in Damascus. What is evident in these patterns is the unreconstructed absence of robust strategy and clear leadership. At a time when Washington DC is hubristically telling all she is the only superpower; evidence shows leadership fatigue, strategic confusion, self-reassuring delusion and above all disconnection to urgent domestic needs.

As for London, the ultimate remora of United States, she has now in tandem authorised control/checks in select airports.  This was done with some drama. According to questionable BBC report, London is investing human and material resources in Sierra Leone to assist containment and treatment of infected patients. This information needs to be verified.

Matters Arising

There are levels of responsibilities and irresponsibility. The biggest culprits in this Ebola saga are the governments/presidents of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.  These individuals have exemplified the worst expression of governance and have no justification to remain in government or power. They are part of their country’s problems rather than pretend association with their solutions. On another level they have finally confirmed that these countries are not failed states, rather states with potentials run by corrupt/tainted members of the elite.

Performance of United States and United Kingdom present wonderful opportunities for various countries of the world especially in Africa to begin full-scale recalibration of their relations with Washington DC towards reduction of strategic depth and investing more in association with diversity of powers. It is also an opportunity to strengthen instruments and protocols of regional groups like ECOWAS.  It is evident that the world is at an important juncture when the final days of 20^th century geopolitical configuration built on bloodshed and industrial scale murders is coming to roost.

Another Spectacular Betrayal of the Kurds

Introduction

The recent escalation of perpetual conflict in the Arab-Islamic world has brought usual views and counterviews in the public domain despite the fact that none of the views original or new. While various news media in the West vacillate between raising prospect of Kurdish resistance and their resilience, the true outcome of the current phase of conflict be it balkanisation of Iraq, attempted regime change in Syria or distractive insertion of Daesh into the maelstrom remain thus; Kurds will be betrayed and disappointed. Look back into history.

Strategic Markers

Interesting developments have been emerging in the last few months suggesting that Arab-Islamic world reconfiguration is reaching a critical stage. This is considered partly in view of the current proxy regional war raging in Syria. While the players of various dimensions are known, one player remains the weakest link. This weakness contrasts in scope and context with post 1^st Gulf War imposition of non-fly zone over northern Iraq. At the time Iraq existed, her territorial integrity was respected even by sanction busters.  All the above mentioned evaporated with 2003 ‘shock and awe’ invested by United States. The entity and concept known as Iraq was swept into oblivion.

With such national vacuum, Iraq Kurds perceived an opening and morphed it into an opportune advantage probably in view of history to strategically repositioning under the umbrella of chaos in Baghdad. But the problem is not the south, it is the neighbourhood.  While Erbil saw it fit to challenge Baghdad with Tel Aviv encouragement in illegal crude oil sales, the short-sightedness began to unravel with the immediate difficulty for the stolen oil to be sold. This strategic error signifies the highest realisation of Iraqi Kurdish self-determination because they overplayed their hand.  It is worrying that Erbil approached Ankara anticipating a solid and strategic rapprochement while Erbil is not yet a nation-state which in any event Ankara will not tolerate except with huge dose of finlandisation.

Few weeks ago while the ‘coalitions of the willing’ were emerging like microscopic multicellular organism to fight the latest incursion, bear in mind that some of the coalition member possess enough military hardware to reduce the world to ashes. Ankara demurred. With the recent past exchange of prisoners/hostages between Ankara and Daesh, Ankara made a Neo-Ottoman strategic gamble primarily in conflict with Kurdish aspiration. The inglorious zero-problem policy is in tatters! In approving legal incursion into Syria, Kurdistan Worker Party (PKK) is declared a terrorist organisation and the goal is to use Daesh to knock at the gate of Damascus.

Ankara strategy is to maximise the outcome with a more neutered Kurds within and beyond her border. This is currently expressed in the defensive posture of Turkish troops along the border while refereeing Daesh onslaught from east in Kobani, Syria.  See map below. 

Military Situation in Kobani/Ayr Al Arab, Syria

Ankara is committed to establishing a buffer zone in this area to forestall any Syrian Kurdish aspiration regardless of who is the victor and then advance the cause of regime change in Damascus. Problem is Ankara is not calling the shots and also lacks the capacity/resources to do so even with Washington DC illustrious allergy to robust geostrategy. Damascus policy of concentrating resources in the western part thus freeing the eastern deserts and north eastern sparse population centres to Kurds is not received positively in Ankara.  See map below. Ankara sees as potential destabilisation strategy to link up Kurds in both countries. 

Western Syria High Population Density in contrast to Eastern Desert Lands

Population and Religious Dynamic

Based on wider aggregation of population, the main players in the conflict are Arabs, Turks and Kurds. Minorities up and down the area are deemed ‘invisible’ and false flag ‘elements’ by the various powers seeking hegemony in both Syria and what is left of Iraq. The fact that most of the Kurdish territories are coterminous with large crude oil deposits makes it imperative for Riyadh, Ankara and other gulf capitals to restrict any development and utility of these rich resources by the Kurds.

With Iran contextually out of the battlefield picture, the Kurds are spatially and numerically contained and restricted in their ability to manoeuvre in the short and long terms. While it remains to be seen how post-war Damascus will deal with power allocations and political gains made during the war by Kurds, it is becoming clearer that Syrian Kurds have an opportunity to engage fully with Damascus. Any buffer in the northern border by Ankara will strategically cut Syrian Kurds from Turkish Kurds in the short term. The biggest mistake Syrian Kurds will make is making an opportunistic alliance with Ankara against Damascus. Kobani assault is making it an impossible prospect.

Maybe one of the aims of the ill-fated air campaign strategy is to expose Syrian Kurd to accomplish Ankara’s design because militarily the area under Kurdish population are not only unprotected, the military capacity and resources to reverse an offensive by Daesh or Turkish Army remains to be seen. An air campaign devoid of well resourced ground troops is a figment of imagination and confirmation of irreversible decline of its protagonists.  

These events are not unfolding in a vacuum. PKK has signalled its concerns and worries. It will be difficult for Ankara to reverse the gains Kurds made in the last decade without outright resort to total violence, repression, oppression and massacres. Whatever gain Ankara makes in the short term at the expenses of Damascus, the political climate in Turkey will be most difficult regarding the Kurdish question.

In addition to the devious designs regional players, the religious template dominating the landscape is Islam and its various denominations. The mental image dominating power brokers and victims of war is mirrored in the binary of Shia Arab and Sunni (Arab) Muslims. Kurds are not presented succinctly through the religious prism and at best the presentation has acclaimed that those lands are not Christians except foreigners on pilgrimage. Geopolitically the current religious montage seamlessly interlocks and connects Ankara, Riyadh and the gulf capitals in a united Sunni gambit to dominate and control the final regional outcome which sadly does Kurds of any country no favours.

It is the case that either Kurd raised their hopes too high and overplayed their hand or that they deliberately tasted the dangerous geopolitical minefield.  Whichever way, evidence point to that fact the Kurds in Iraq and Syria cannot defend themselves robustly without external intervention. There is clear absence of capacity and capability for Kurds to seriously navigate the geopolitical complexities of their neighbourhood, a neighbourhood that doesn't want them.  The status-quo of remaining minorities in the different countries that encircles their nations will not be successfully challenged in the near future. Territorially Iraqi Kurds are best placed to explore their limited self-determination with what remains of Iraq through proactive cooperation with Baghdad and Tehran.

Looking East & Global South

As a people surrounded on many levels in their territorial scales, and in addition to the unsuccessful domination of north Atlantic geopolitics of their betrayals; Kurds of every country should tactical commence further exploration of the contours of the emerging geopolitical reconfiguration. This new reconfiguration is gradually enhancing and elevating capitals in the East and in the Global South. The fossilised and inflexible betraying policy of the West will not be productive or generate positive results for Kurds.

The chances of a minority group to hold power in the region similar to Syria is slim and may not be repeated. Bahrain is hanging on but only for a short time, less than a generation at most. The main reason for positing the view of looking East stems from the fact various players in the region who are equally big crude suppliers are increasingly making their profit off high demand and purchases from India and China.  These capitals may never initially be amenable but will be open to receive entreaties.

Maintaining a viable relationship with Global South capitals and Moscow without suspicion with home governments will encourage new confidence for future generation of Kurdish leader in a renewed internationalisation of the Kurdish question. One of the main problems for Kurds in the Atlantist perspective is the clear choice in a binary of interest of which Kurdish question is relegated as an internal affairs matter.  With the strategic objective of having unfettered access to crude oil in return for non-interference on suppliers domestic affair; the Kurds of Iraq, Turkey, Iran and Syria in descending order were freed from comprehensively addressing the questions.

Beijing, Delhi, Brasilia and Moscow are rising in profile. This is amplified by the continued US aggression towards their strategic and core national interests. While the US will not collapse in one day, her prowess is in decline on many fronts. While the difficulty of such interaction cannot be dismissed, strategic interests and pressure from the named capitals may be the catalyst for Kurds in every country to maximise their self-determination to a higher extent. 

Titanic Humilation of Kenya & Kenyans a la ICC

Map of Kenya

Introduction

The world is not running out of news. The Arabo-Islamic world continues on the road of implosion with the last leg of its reconfiguration concentrating in Syria based on sustaining perpetual conflict by any means. At least United States Vice President Joe Biden alluded to it last week. He apologised but didn’t deny. On the other end of the spectrum is biological weapon misinformation machine feeding battered populations with threat of Ebola. I F Stone said something about governments and truth.

Now it is Kenya’s turn to accept the chalice of humiliation in the name of subscribing to international law and stability. The President of the republic has assumed a part time role from Nairobi to face International Criminal Court in The Hague, Europe. Our conclusion is that Kenya and Africa in general will remain subjected to humiliation in the current North Atlantic regime until its powers diminish.

Not Yet Uhuru

There is no suggestion that injustice must go without investigation and unpunished. The election violence in Kenya few years ago can be summarised as the colossal evidence of elite ineptitude & impunity. It was long time coming from the political wreckage automated by the former president ‘Prof’ Daniel arap Moi. The election genocide is rather one of numerous examples of oppression of the commons sponsored directly/indirectly by Kenyan elite/state. The complex and dynamic situation that followed Moi’s exit opened a Pandora in the Kenyan political space with an elite lacking in strategic initiative and clear vision. 

With most of the population suffering from economic persecution and political oppression under Moi, which continued under Mwai Kibaki, the elite obsession with power by any means necessary blinded the them from the ticking time bomb that majority will survive by any means necessary. A few shillings here and there make huge difference in empty pockets, but laced with misinformation violence can be unleashed at a touch by the angry poor minds on behalf of their seasonal political grandee. Later they called the outcome ethnic violence rather than elite induced genocide!

Kenya in the ICC Dock

Parade of Harambee Stars

Sections of Kenyan elite who are alleged to have participated and encouraged the genocide initially created an aura of dependability and untouchability since they run the levers of the state.  In the ignorance usually associated with elite, they had every side covered. These elite including the current-former-temporary president, Uhuru Kenyatta refused to countenance allowing domestic courts to even entertain a modicum of legal redress. By so doing they forgot that Nairobi is a very small player in the region. 

By playing hardball and inflexibility, they condemned themselves to repeating ignorance of history. Now another African elected leader is in the dock in Europe, reminiscence of holocaust slave trade where human beings are put on show for Northern buyers and investors. Now Kenya and Kenyans have become chattels in the geopolitical neoliberal market place. Sadly Uhuru Kenyatta’s father Jomo Kenyatta, the first president after fighting for independence may not be facing Mouth Kenya again.

Losers Court of Humiliation

International Criminal Court (ICC) was set up by United States to keep Global South in check. Of course the chattering classes even Africa intelligentsia will maximise the merits. In the geopolitical scheme of things, ICC has become a new legal machination to sustain legalo-judicial colonialism of Africa. How many world leaders have been subjected to the travesty of the courts impunity? Apart from President Slobodan Milosevic of former Yugoslavia, the roll call is an all-African affair.

President Laurent Gbagbo of Cote D’Ivorie, President Charles Taylor of Liberia, Vice President Jean Bemba of Democratic Republic of Congo to name a few prominent Africans. ICC has come to represent a failure of Africa internal judicial and legal institutions which the elite dismiss as ineffective and inefficient, ignorant of the potential for their ending up on the wrong side of their recommendation. Maybe their perception is related to that of mangled health system which they abandoned for expensive flights to the northern hospitals where they can be treated and released post-treatment.

Forget about Sovereignty Stupid

No other European, Americas, Asia, even Middle East leader has been or will be placed in ICC dock. They are far ‘advanced’ and ‘superior’ to be exposed to such shenanigan. It is a settled matter. It also testified to very weak credentials of Nairobi in the geopolitical calculus as US client state. For all the huffing and puffing, Nairobi is lightweight material compared to her co-regional capitals like Kampala and Kigali despite mounting evidence of their contributions to the genocide of millions in DRC.

There are numerous documents and United Nations reports assigning culpability of both capitals for the devastation, waste, destruction and murder in DR Congo. However they possess higher geopolitical capital as they are rewarded with ‘bastions of stability in the region’ awards by Washington DC. Kenya is a weak & humiliated republic, Kenyans are a humiliated nation and this humiliation has long term consequences no matter how great the GDP rises. Kenya is mortally wounded and her full recovery and the duration is a matter of speculation. Her reputation and brand are in tatters. Kenya is damaged brand in her neighbourhood and across the world.

Hope of Exit and Restitution

The main lesson for Kenya’s peoples including the elite from the humiliation if received positive will consist of a complex and dynamic framework of nation-building worldview. The old structure with western imprimatur has failed Kenya in a spectacular fashion. The question is no longer whether strategic documents exist, rather whether there is a political belief in the supremacy & dignity of Kenyan state for citizens. A state where her institutions including the legal system are fully deployed to fully address issues, problems and crimes committed within her territory.

A new mind-set that accepts the sunset of geopolitical configuration of the world known for the past 60 years will be welcome. An acceptance that the sun is gradually setting on the West must be acknowledged, integrated and reengineered if Kenya is to move forward with vigour, substance, dignity and respect in the comity of nations. Not within ‘the international community’! Realistic reappraisal of internal affair, foreign and diplomatic relations at all levels is inevitable if Kenya is to assume her true position in the emerging geopolitical framework where Global South will surely inherit enhanced status and contribute significantly in realigning new international structures.

Conclusion

Until Kenya and Kenyans accept the rejection of their humiliation, one is forced conclude that it is not yet Uhuru (freedom). 

Blame it on the Outsider Syndrome – Sierra Leone and Liberia with Ebola at the Gate

Introduction

The on-going Ebola outbreak or containment effort in Sierra Leone and Liberia has presented opportunity to shed light again on various issues and complex problems in parts of Africa. While the pain of human loss and abandonment of various families in these countries are recognised, the governments and elites in these countries have yet to present convincing case that justifies their colossal failure to oversee accessible health care systems. 

It is the case of this article that one of the reasons for this failure is rooted in the myopic and deliberate machination of the current governments/elites in Monrovia and Freetown to abuse their powers/privilege and blame their failures on external forces. By such failures ordinary people and the commons are condemned to new levels of victimhood usually associated with spaces of conflicts which both countries are removed from for nearly 2 decades.

Post War Intellectual Fatigue

It is a fact the Liberia and Sierra Leone suffered brutal civil wars for over a decade respectively. They both share a border. These are small countries in geographical spread and population which would have been incentives for easier governance and effective administration. Singapore is no bigger. What is evident in the post-war climate of both countries is that lessons of war are not learnt, the reasons for both wars are not exploited, the patterns of abuse, maladministration and malfeasance and injustice that triggered the wars continue on a larger scale. See map below.

Sierra Leone and Liberia

Rather what the commons in both countries are condemned with is a peace as continuation of war by other means. A peace which deprives citizens of basic needs of life, ensuring low quality and abysmal standard of living, lack of infrastructure, lack of public service and lack of expectation. Rather the privileged and the elite simply cling to power as instrument of accumulation and consolidation of position vis-à-vis the common people. Apparently the binary division of society along power lines is sustained. Class struggle devoid of Marx!

The so-called elite, government officials and elected representatives deploy exhaustive pontification of shallow reasons for underdevelopment, many harking back to colonialism (and rightly so) but without credible response to today’s problems.  Most of them continue to suffocate in the colonial mentality of always looking North for solutions when North’s interest remains unchanged; their subjugation. 

You’ll not be surprised that leaders of Sierra Leone and Liberia are mostly trained in the best universities in United Kingdom and United States. Leadership is obtained in universities. Of course they received technical education that only charts the course for making huge income without questioning the structures perpetuating inequality, injustice and dehumanisation. Will sleep settle on their dead anti-colonial fighters and anti-imperialism juggernauts?

Ignorance of Geopolitics

The emergence of new geopolitical players in the scene provides significant opportunities for Liberian and Sierra Leonean leaders to reappraise their strategies and opportunities. There are myopic trends in both capitals that seem to exhibit an existential struggle between the past and future, between capacity and ability and between the peoples as constituents and foreign interlocutors as constituents.  Such existential struggle is given nourishment by absence of unity, legitimacy and cohesion in both polities.

It is difficult for Monrovia and Freetown to justify their strategic policies of dependence on Washington DC and London and the current Ebola outbreak is a best case example. It is reported that Sierra Leonean President is in London begging for funds on the premise that reduction UK of foreign aid is a significant contributor to the outbreak. If only it is that simply. Nevertheless it justifies my case that problems and solutions are attributed to external forces.

Why didn’t Monrovia and Freetown call an emergency session of ECOWAS meeting in the face of Ebola outbreak? Is it beyond Monrovia and Freetown to engage with the Global South towards her economic development instead of depending on the North for hand-outs?  Is it beyond these capitals to maximise their largest resources, their human population, toward a strategic and productive development? In a largely emerging multipolar global economy, these capitals continue to engage in business as usual; blinded obsession with the North.

Potential Weaponisation of Ebola

Instead of the foreign interlocutors to respond aggressively with appropriate resources in a timely manner, Washington DC and London have among strategies engaged in grand misinformation on the potential airborne transmission of Ebola. Instead of providing the so-called vaccine if it exists in real time to Liberian and Sierra Leonean victims, they selectively extract their infected citizens from both countries for treatment and leave even indigenous specialists to die. Evidently these highly trained specialist who died in the services of Liberia and Sierra Leone were let down by Monrovia and Freetown respectively.

Above all almost all the geopolitical powers are sending their specialist to both countries to collect blood samples without regulations and may even use unsuspecting Liberians and Sierra Leoneans are guinea pigs. Of course the sample collecting geopolitical powers will not invest in building and equipping hospitals in both countries in the course of these regressive endeavours neither will the leaders insist as they have confirmed their lower status in the global elite network. They are potentially interested in enhancing their biological weapon capacities.

If the heavy-duty misinformation by London and Washington DC about Ebola’s lethal disposition continues, question now is how this infection will be transmitted on a massive scale. Will the victims of these countries and other African citizens be made to undergo large scale preventive vaccination from which the real vaccine will be produced and suppressed for the right time? Will the commons in Africa be exposed to large scale foreign funded health aid to be infected and be made ready for sale of vaccines by the big pharmaceutical firms of the North? See Map below. One must recall that HIV/AIDS which emerged few decades ago was initially described as a sexually transmitted infection. In summary this infection devastated most part of Africa wreaking havoc to communities.

Potential Paths of Imposed Ebola Outbreak in Africa

Is it possible that suggest that Africa is the most sexualised continent in the world? Why didn’t HIV/AIDS wreak similar havoc in North America and Europe? Why did HIV/AIDS have most of its victim outside of North America and Europe? Ebola has every potential of becoming the new HIV/AIDS targeting Africa in order to weaken her further for resource exploitation alias recolonisation. Even a new pathetic dispute is hashed in the North on the geographical origin on HIV/AIDS. Distraction incorporated! This is a multi-pronged attack which African elites including Liberians and Sierra Leoneans will dismiss with wave of hands as conspiracy theory. The marginal progress of African countries in the last decade following the end of ideological conflicts is punctuated by renewed conflicts along ‘war on terrorism’ dimensions, instrumentation and militarisation of governments and now potential weaponisation of Ebola.

Conclusion

Monrovia and Freetown should wake up and immediately reconfigure their strategies of leadership strategic initiatives, recalibrate their geopolitical priorities and advance provision of public services in their territories. The accommodation of excuses, the charade of impression devoid of positive action and waste of public resources should cease. The leaders and elite should form a united front and cohesive structure towards kick-starting renewed vigour in the economic development of their countries. Until such actions are instrumented and implemented, lumbering across Northern capitals with begging bowls will continue as undignifying and unjustifiable as it.