Senator Saraki’s Anti-Party Moves and Future Implications

Introduction

The euphoria of 2015 successful national elections and seamless handovers is immediately challenged by fallouts at the Senate and House of Representatives respectively. A deviation of expectation, bad judgement and regressive machinations were laid bare resulting in the elevation of Senator Saraki as Senate President. Since this event, a new development is unfolding with (unforeseen) medium and long term implications. It is the position of this piece to ‘scenario’ potential implications on the back of recent history of the Senate. 

Jumping Devoid of Vision

It is not unexpected for the latest saga in realpolitik to manifest at the Federal level. That Senator Saraki defied his party line, snubbed the President and connived with opposition party is undesirable but expected. The ruling party as a new structure is filled with laudable members, questionable operators and significant remnants of PDP. This unfortunate move by APC senators led by Senator Saraki played a hand they know best which has served well or should sustain in the handbook of PDP since 1999. Significantly it mustn’t be lost that Senate has been one of the weakest links in the constitutional triumvirate. This institution is synonymous with turnovers. This is one of the unfortunate legacies of President Olusegun Obasanjo. Curiously PDP is no longer in power.

Intellectual & Procedural Trap

What obtained in the election of Senator Saraki as Senate President is part of ugly currency of undue-process in the Federal Republic. When a group get used to having their way by any means necessary, it becomes a norm of which the contrary is perceived as anathema. The Nigerian political scene for a long time has become a dynamic space dominated by anything-goes, the end justifies the means and put-up-or-shut-up syndrome. 

Sadly these wrapped behavioural contortions, procedural abuses and intellectual regression are motivated by short-sightedness and selfish calculations. There is no relationship between such machinations and positive national interest. These and related moves are decoupled from perception and conclusion beyond the shores of the country. Of course interested domestic and foreign interlocutors especially in the Global South of which Nigeria is struggling to re-define a role against subservient comfort under Washington DC are concerned.  Only time will tell but it is clear that the current Senate President is trapped.

Missing Function in Equation

One of the ubiquitous elements missing in Senator Saraki’s group is failure to realise that a new dispensation is in place under a new political party and a new President. Another is his blatant conspiracy with opposition party to seek high office, by so doing became an APC liability. How he expects to work positively the new administration remains in the mind of the gods. Unfortunately trust, confidence, integrity and honour evaporated in this short-sighted machination and anyone asking the President to countenance/seat comfortable should think again. There could be national security risk. 

The most impressive aspect of this unfolding saga is the show of unity by APC leadership in giving public support to his election. By so doing they wholly appropriated the issue to be dealt with as an internal matter, which takes the wind out of opposition party sails. PDP has said little publicly on the matter.

This action shortens the celebration in Senator Saraki’s camp and turns their triumph into pressure-cooker. Surely the pressure is mounting as his latest visit to ex-President Obasanjo testifies.  This ill-fated visit failed on arrival for 2 reasons; the former leader wouldn’t like to be seen as interfering in a new administration and more so is aware that his own presidential history with institutions is opaque & questionable. Such damage-limitation excercise is belated. This means that Senator Saraki will continue to hang & dry in the wind while calculating his options as his position is untenable. Rushing towards and occupying a position is one thing, but legitimacy is another kettle of fish. On legitimacy Senator Saraki seems very light as Senate President.

4 Years of Presidency

There are number of analysts who live on regressive business-as-usual mode, rate self-interest against national interest, and they have concluded that the new administration has little options. They are allergic to long-term and positive outcomes. They have calcified into an unfortunate position of accepting that those with corruption allegations are untouchable. This is not the case. There is no such thing as risk-free politics. 

It is the positive expectation of this article that the new administration will act with tact, diligence and prudence in time. At the moment Senator Saraki is under enormous pressure with President’s silence duly propelling his earlier stated position of non-interference with other arms of government. This wily statement is a loaded, pregnant and strategic weapon. Silence has never been more golden!

In addition President’s useful time is invested in unveiling handover notes to enable priority harmonisation, defining strategies and policies confirmation for effective administration and tackling of problems. There are a number of weapons in the president’s arsenal. The first weapon could commence with potential neutralisation of ex-Vice President Atiku with a strategic offer to jettison his support of the Senate President.  It is understood that Mr Atiku is a backer, but he wouldn’t want to be perceived as an obstructer of Presidential programme. It will be dishonourable.This means that the presidency has to ensure that various factions of the party buy into his plan and strategy. The party stalwarts must realise that the party is subordinate to the state.

In anticipation of potential sign of things to come, Senator Saraki pledged support to unannounced anti-corruption initiative. Unless his has ideas, there are no explicit allegations against him in the course of his political career. The presidency has yet to release the contours of any such policy nevertheless; the President has an opportunity to engage the senate with his 4-year (legislative) programme with clear plan and targets including strategies of implementation. 

Inserted in the framework is unambiguous anti-corruption plan targeting members of the senate. There is no way those with corruption allegation can truncate his administration as suggested in some quarters.  On this show of amber light, Senator Saraki will be isolated and naturally move into decision mode. Senakor Saraki is already delegitimized, distrusted & weakened strategically as a brand to frustrate president’s legislative programme even of his remains in office till 2019. 

It depends on the presidency and APC leadership on whether to take a slow road drawn out till 2019 or take a quick road of minor instability for stability in the future.  The former seems feasible and matches voters’ expectation as well as align with despite national priorities. One area the presidency need to be vibrant is revitalisation of institutions especially judiciary and all the anti-corruption departments for unobstructed performance.

The Alleged Corrupt is Touchable

Nigeria cannot take her rightful place among the comity of nations in a dishevelled state. Celebrating business-as-usual where national resources are stripped away for narrow personal interest cannot elevate that country and her peoples. The current issue of distasteful senate election offers conducive opportunity for the administration to commence a stepwise reconfiguration of due-diligence, due-process and legality in this administration. Until mentality of untouchability and unaccountability is tackled head-on, the presidency, presidential programme and Nigerians will struggle. The president possesses all the legal tools, weapons and strategies for comprehensive implementations of targeted solutions. 

Conclusion

There is optimism for positive action by the new administration. There is equally clear understanding that limitations exist which will surely eliminate successful resolution of certain issues and complex problems. Nevertheless consensus is gradually rising in acknowledging that negative and regressive business-as-usual climate days are numbers. Only time will tell how far President Buhari will go in limiting it. Delegitimized & appropriated Senate Presidency is an important litmus test for the next 4 years.

Buhari’s Neighbourhood Shuttle Diplomacy & the Other Summit

Introduction

President Buhari kicked off his diplomatic shuttles with an immediate foray among the comity of nations. His first official trip to Nigeria’s neighbours speaks volumes in the short and medium terms as it harks back into a defined precedence. This piece will review the import and potentials. The other following trip took him beyond African shores to G7 Summit in Germany. This trip is pregnant with meaning while it triggers a lot of concerns for Nigeria in the medium and long terms. On this point hangs an uncertainty of Nigeria’s diplomacy in a rapidly geopolitically reconfiguring world where erstwhile centre no longer holds.

Neighbour-Africa-Centre-Diplomacy

President Buhari’s first foreign trip to Niger and Chad should be a no-brainer but within the context of ‘decolonised’ Africa it is heavyweight with meaning. It is also important to appreciate credible diplomatic gestures displayed by neighbouring leaders on his election by paying him pre-inuagural courtesy calls which is unprecedented. Some of them also attended his inauguration despite their tight schedules, poignantly all these countries were colonised by France.

With demise of USSR and slight dent on naked colonisation, Africa-centred foreign policy continues to defy expectation at it gradually responds positively to new geopolitical realities. These realities include the rise of China which is felt in Africa by her increasing investment footprint, the regression of France who has forced her against teleological design into Washington DC arms. The implication is observed in Paris re-parcelisation of France-Afrique policy to facilitate USAFRICOM objectives. The result has led to re-encirclement of Nigeria by United States via establishment of military bases in West Africa including but not limited to airbase in Niamey (less than 500 miles North of Abuja) and in Ouagadougou. This is instability per excellence!

It is equally on this framework that one start to appreciate the insertion of Boko Haram into the geopolitical equation. Boko Haram is an extra-African geopolitical insertion to weaken Nigeria and Africa.  Solution to Boko Haram is openly appreciated in Ndjamena and apparently this conclusion was misread public by Dr Goodluck Jonathan’s presidency, who made the biggest error with his ill-fated Paris visit a year ago.  On this note President Buhari’s move is wise on the surface; the diplomatic hurdle will be in obtaining full agreement in a short time with minimum French & Washington DC obstructions.

Nigeria’s current status including conflicted Foreign Affair ministry & hostaged Armed Forces leadership indicates that the time line of eliminating Boko Haram as a threat may take longer than anticipated. The levers of geopolitical initiative unfavourable to Abuja are partly pulled in Paris and endorsed in Washington DC. Currently and for a long time Nigeria has played passive role & subservient disposition below her full diplomatic potential in her relationship with both capitals. Nevertheless the presidential visits surely restore confidence in both capitals, reopen weakened channels and encourage sustained interaction with Nigeria.

The Other Summit

President Buhari left Ndjamena for Germany to attend G7 meeting in Germany. Of course Nigeria is not a member and the agenda issue are contentious. The reason for inviting Nigeria (lumped with Liberia, Iraq), a current geopolitical lightweight can be read as sub-text of an imposed grand design rather than with elation for winning diplomatic brownie points. Nevertheless, a few issues need to be mentioned in advanced.

It is must be appreciated that a person of President Buhari’s experience and capacity should adhere to diplomatic norms especially in full knowledge that Nigeria is not a banana republic. His pre-inaugural visit to the United Kingdom in un-presidential, geopolitically distasteful and diplomatically unsavvy. The message must have been closely watched in Beijing, Moscow, Pretoria, Brasilia, Tehran& Delhi.

Nevertheless there is an opportunity for President Buhari to talk, listen and read presentations of G7 members without giving anything away. G7 has questionable design on Nigeria. It must be an exploratory visit bearing in mind that National Assembly and various ministries are still in post-election mode and gradually settling down. G7 has made clear her policy on Africa with the recent regressive murderous demarche on migrant crossing the Mediterranean Sea. It must also not be lost on the President that G7 is a global destabilising force. The strategic trajectory of the group is unfavourable and tilts heavily on the negative be it economy, security, politics, health, culture, education and religion. Abuja must take stock and avoid particularly taking on spurious regressive geoeconomic policies like TIPP in the guise that Nigeria is Africa’s largest market!

Most discussion time must be allocated with US team especially at the lower levels for meatier details, followed by France team. It must be stated that Paris is not always in sync with Washington DC despite her rapidly declining fortunes. With limited information of geopolitically experienced members of the team at the time of writing, the President is not a greenhorn in global geopolitics with his mettle as Oil Minister and Head of State. Historically, he’s one of the only 2 Nigeria’s Heads of State that maintained robust diplomacy with the West in their administration. The other was General Muhammed who stood down United States a la Kissinger during the Angolan imbroglio. It is strange that both administrations didn’t last long.

The Other History

Observing the changing global scenario and reconfiguring geopolitics, President Buhari is aware of the transfer and consolidation of economic power in the east i.e. Asia led by China. This singular fact must be considered in all diplomatic and geopolitical dimensions of pursuing Nigeria’s strategic interests. China is a heavyweight that cannot be ignored and in acknowledgement mustn’t be acquiesced to easily.

China is the behest of new & unstoppable geopolitical configurations unfurling new diplomatic momentum which is beyond erstwhile capacity of the West to impinge or reverse. A number of institutional developments must be noted by the President and his incoming team across the board as opportunities for Nigeria. These include but not limited to Brazil, Russia, India, China & South Africa (BRICS), BCRICS New Development Bank, Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) & Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

There is a strategic need and necessity for the incoming team to contain West-centred worldview and cautiously acknowledge recent & consolidating global geopolitical dynamics led by Beijing. It is imperative to specifically diminish credibility ascribed to the geo-economic design of Bretton Woods’ institutions with a view towards higher flexibility on independence and strategic decision making. Nigeria is at a comfortable position & equilibrium to tap into declining West and rising East for Nigeria’s narrow interest and as step-board towards securing Africa’s interest. Until Abuja appreciate the weight of her continental responsibilities, the administration may struggle not just in the domestic front but on the geopolitical/international space.

Conclusion

There is no evidence that President Buhari’s formation including spell in United Kingdom and United States institutions is a hamstring to his delivery of robust Africa-centred & strategic foreign policy primarily focused on protecting the country’s strategic interest including national security. 

Radical Reality of Nigeria’s Presidential Inauguration

Introduction

On the 29^th May 2015 a new president of Nigeria was inaugurated in Abuja.  In many parts of the world similar events come and go with or without aplomb. However in this instance there was a positively charged atmosphere and for many with a decent sense of expectation on the basis that fallen peoples can fall no more. Poignantly the occasion beamed live across the world provided striking opportunities to x-ray the real importance of Nigeria in the comity of nations and also contrast contradictory scenes of fellowship by mischievous diminutors of her essence abroad.

Africa’s Day at the Centre

It is not always the case for Africa to pick up positive headlines in Europe & North America and on this day the negative took the lead but essentially no one in Nigeria or Africa paid attention. UK Guardian led the way for the dying embers of a collection of regressing powers. As various powerful media channels of Nigeria beamed the event, a construction of events played out by interaction of important African personalities only copied the world i.e. Africa a la Nigeria. As Abuja stood still, geographies and sub-geographies of discontent around the world took deserving beating into the background.

MetaGeographical Power Player of ReNewing Africa 

Africa arrived Abuja on time and stool still for the important event. Nigeria’s neighbours in the persons of Chad’s President Deby, Cameroun’s Paul Biya, and Niger’s Issofou graced the occasion as President Deby gave President-elect a big hug. Few days earlier he reminded him that Nigeria is essential in Africa as ‘when Abuja sneezes her neighbours catch cold’. Benin Republic President was missing from the action. Quite strange but one must acknowledge that recent past energy strike in Nigeria stirred things up in Benin. 

On the western flank, ECOWAS put on an excellent presence including Ghanaian President Mahama, Liberian President Sirleaf, Sierra Leone’s President Koroma to mention a few.  Guinean and Ivorian presidents paid President-elect courtesy call few days in advance to display their understanding of Nigeria’s geopolitical weight. 

From South Africa, President Zuma led the charge in attendance and must be acknowledged as a bonus because he smoothed the way for a Nigerian to be elected African Development Bank (ADB) president for the first time.  This diplomatic victory was active despite the xenophobic tension in his country at the time. Swaziland King graced the occasion, so did President Robert Mugabe. Southern African regional presence is an acknowledgement of Nigeria contributions to their liberation from colonial jaws of United Kingdom, Portugal & Apartheid South Africa. 

From the eastern flank President Paul Kagame of Rwanda sauntered in his lanky frame while Ethiopian Prime Minister Desalegn remained quietly in his seat. There was a conspicuous absent of the remaining Heads of State of North Africa.  This state of affair only reinforced the weight of instability sweeping across the region. It is interesting that King Mohammed of Morocco made a detour to Guinea Bissau few day earlier while the action waited in Abuja. It is sad to watch North Africa in regression, confusion and disruption.  

 

Weakened Northern Powers

While the new constellation of consolidating powers (Russia, China, India, Brazil, Iran, Turkey & Argentina) must have sent their representatives understandably, the chasm between Africa and South America & Asia remains. Government-to-government, people-to-people interactions between these continental regions is astronomically local despite sharing common experiences, histories and apparent picking up similar future trends.

One couldn’t miss the 3 Western amigos led by United States in attendance. The foreign ministers of United States, United Kingdom and France sat together reminding one clearly of their shared past in eviscerating Africa’s dignity through slavery, colonialism and neo-colonialism. These men represent the awful geopolitical convenience of unleashing policies of regression and suppression of Africa through perpetual wars, instability, economic wars and controlled development.

It was awful watching Mr Laurent Fabius of France making futile cavorting efforts to obtain attention of the President-elect as he spurn platitudes on the back of Paris designs on Libya, Cote d’Ivorie, assigning her ‘colonies’ to United States for new military bases for recolonisation of Africa with USAFRICOM. Mr John Kerry stood grinning in the knowledge of refusing Nigeria timely military support in dealing with Boko Haram because Abuja rejected her erstwhile pressure to moderate her marriage/family laws.

Conclusion

There is life beyond presidential inaugurations Nigeria is no exception. Nevertheless there are 2 options facing the new administration; implement at least 50% of her initiatives/policy or lay the foundation of potential concerted effort by the commons to retrieve what remains of their despoiled and raped domain.