Conflict & Violence in Nigeria April 2014

 Data Source:

• Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data-2014/ 

Nigeria Bungling Boko Haram Saga with Incoherent Aplomb

Introduction

When finally Abuja was cornered by both internal and external forces on the recent unresolved abduction of secondary school girls by Boko Haram, Abuja continued to flail and tumble with incompetence, incoherence and cluelessness. This development which not only exposes divisions within the federal government has among other things worked in favour of her so-called ‘allies’ and ‘international community’ to be unconstrained in their bid to malign and insults Nigerians. 

No Road to Chibok

While it is easy to mention and hashtag Chibok as a point of interest, it is clear that the so-called western media in their feigning interests have failed to send reporters/correspondents to Chibok to investigate, collaborate and report events from the ground. Rather most of them have their reporters reporting ‘live’ from Abuja, Maiduguri, Lagos, Ibadan & etc. Anywhere but Chibok! The only Nigerian print report dispatched from Chibok in recent weeks was by a freelance journalist, which is a serious indictment on Nigeria's print and electronic media industry. Adding insult to injury BBC UK has made herself unofficial spokesmedia for Abuja reporting on positions which are exclusive of Nigerian media. The situation is exacerbated by headstrong refusal of President Goodluck Jonathan to visit Chibok for ‘security reasons’ while residents/citizens therein confirm rightly that Abuja doesn't care for them.

Neighbour is France

It is important to stress the near-absence of Nigeria’s top diplomat in all these development.  One begins to wonder if a foreign/external affairs ministry/minister exists suggesting another expression of incoherence and inconsistency. To compound the whole mess Abuja fell into the geopolitical trap which refuses to recognise that Nigeria is surrounded by France. Instead of consulting with the Federal Executive Council and coordinate with National Security Committee to consider strategy and policy, GEJ quickly acceded to French President’s suggestion of neighbourhood security summit in Paris. This is what happens when one arrives a party late & isolated only to give away their position and strategic interest. With an agenda and policy set by Paris GEJ only arrives to concede more positions and Nigeria’s strategic interests to the French. Hence Boko Haram has become a tool for advancing French interest in Nigeria! So much for terrorism!

War on Terror

It is on record that United States government failed to advance coherent reasons for the colossal failure of all its institutions to prevent and or respond forcefully in a timely manner to 9/11. For a country that claims so much hard power, technological prowess and military advancement; it beggars belief such an incomplete narrative juxtaposes her readiness to project power anywhere in the world through a mythical ‘war on terror’ at the least opportunity.

With such chance calling in Nigeria and their immediate response/intervention including among other things re-routing drones from Niamey Niger few hundred kilometres away, new reports are emerging that US has closed any chance to share information/intelligence with Abuja. So much for collaboration of ‘allies’! In any case such report which possess rich context offers insight on policy position of US State Department on Abuja while a lot of hot air is blown by so-called pro-US Nigerians. Another report is credited that US regards Nigerian Army as anything but a fighting force. The report went further to stress that sections of Nigeria Army deployed to Borno State refuse to engage the ‘enemy’. If this report is confirmed then one wonders how and why an asymmetrically warfare must be confronted with symmetric options? Is Boko Haram a standing army or does US possess information withheld from Abuja? Who benefits from purported attempt to deny Abuja access to raw surveillance data captured within her territory & air space?

If one considers the background where Nigeria’s defence and security budget may be one of the biggest in the world, then the hollowness of Abuja’s policy consistency and implementation lays bare. An important dimension is the credibility of so-called politicians' actually consulting, coordinating and sharing ideas with service chiefs on defence and security matters. One can easily conclude that service chiefs, some of them studied in US, and are not taken on board. Relate back to Nigeria’s hurried and uncoordinated response to Mali’s debacle where Nigerian Army served under French Command and notice a pattern of inconsistency including apparent display of Nigeria’s institutional weakness.

Presidential Spokespersons’ InfoErrors

As President Jonathan persists in dogmatic underwhelming of communication in English, the positive opportunities presented by Boko Haram’s latest action are squandered in spectacular fashion. This is not moderated by ineffective Presidential Media circus led by Dr Reuben Abati. When asked about the abducted girls before the media, President Jonathan rejected nuance, professionalism and diplomacy to further expose his inadequacy with a naked ‘I-don’t-know’ response.  Nothing prevented him from stressing enormous effort of all institutions towards capturing and returning the girls alive. What stops President Jonathan from responding to questions in Ijaw or whatever is his first language?

After taking a detour from Chibok for the questionable summit in Paris for 'security reasons', you wonder if the Presidential Media team actually appreciate the gravity of the situation and the complex world we are currently living in.  A simple attribution of change of plans to tight schedule would have sufficed. Of course it is too late to avoid labelling all Nigerians with such tenacity of incompetence, incoherence and unprofessionalism at the highest level. Nigeria we hail thee!

Dialogue – Negotiate

There is no evidence that all dialogues ends up becoming negotiations however negotiations doesn't always take place between equal partners. In the case of Nigeria dialogue is a mask meaning different things and or potential engagement with Boko Haram. The narrative for or against negotiation depends on or rather exposes the latent network of local and international interests handling, supporting, supplying and sustaining Boko Haram campaign of violence.

Despite shouting the mantra of ‘we don’t negotiate with so and so’, the weak and fragmented cannot negotiate from a position of strength. There is no empirical evidence that negotiating with so and so opens doors for repeat performance of the previous negotiation contentions.  In a highly networked world where non-state actors especially insurgent groups who are not independent of states, an insurgent group is a front of disgruntled opponents engaged in politics by other means. In any case Nigeria is not in a strong position to dictate terms to Boko Haram as it is institutionally weak, internally incoherent, fragmented and compromised.

The day after

The current saga will pass hopefully with our sisters safely released. New developments will emerge on how Nigerians engage with their reality of existence. Among others the old tools and methods of national discourse and geopolitical dependency driven by weakness will be challenged vigorously regardless of Nigeria’s status. There is an opportunity for demystifying “North” Nigeria and fragment its objective as an inter-generational metageographical template of political/economic solution. Equally, dormant and digressive discourses on “North” Nigeria religious brand which is exacerbated by other Nigerians’ unreformed & unreconstructed analytical methods must be overthrown. 

“North” Nigeria is neither a geographic, religious, ethnic, political or economic monolith. Until other Nigerians realise that new methodologies are required in engaging and understanding “North” Nigeria, a contextual and nuanced approach to unique peoples, unique experiences, unique times and unique histories; then the limbo continues. Colonial narratives are unhelpful in grappling post-colonial political evolutions.

Clues and Intelligence from Videos of Boko Haram Abducted Girls

Introduction

2 videos have gone online purportedly uploaded by Boko Haram showing the victims, the abducted girls, in one and the Boko Haram’s spokesperson flanked by his armed faced-covered lieutenants and their killing machines.  A number of clues and or intelligence can be picked up from the videos.

Video 1 of Abducted Girls

• The video view window is cropped and closed up to prevent potential viewer from making too much of the physical environment. The video was made in the morning hours before high sun.
• Nevertheless the physical environment is dry and upper Savannah in typology.  There are a few shrubs dotted around the sandy neighbourhood. No houses are shown.
• It is difficult to physically count all the shown girls. A sophisticated programme/software will be helpful.
• The girls sat outdoors on straw ground which they must have been forced to lay out before being paraded for the video session. A poor attempt to take away their dignity! Not seat or benches! Pressure is on Boko Haram!
• The outdoor space where they are paraded suggests that either their accommodation is nearby or they were forcibly transported from another point. Another transportation palaver! The latter is unlikely since their abductors are monitoring the situation as it developments.
• The girls shown (not 200+ in all) were dressed in full coverage of grey or black long clothes which one can guess are not the clothes they were abducted in.  It must have taken a number of tailors/seamstresses some time to sow in advance. Quite a logistic nightmare if done in emergency. Nothing will be missing for police to reach out to known tailors/seamstresses in the areas within 100km square of Chibok. Also cloth sellers as well.
• The girls show resilience & confidence in their controlled countenances despite enormous shock and stress from missing family, neighbours and friends.
• The chorus of ‘conversion’ songs and 'responses' from the girls were extracted under coercion, force and duress under the pain of death. Free will and freedom of choice doesn't apply in their case. Still the girls are cooperating for their individual and collective preservation.
• No adult female was shown in the video or the common uniform masked their presence. Another logistic problem!
• There is no evidence that Boko Haram has enough experience and success in group abduction of females. Apparently abduction is not in their DNA. Successful abductions of groups of individuals in peace time are limited. It is a logistic nightmare with serious implications & consequences.
• Successful and safe rescue of all the young women is the highest priority.

Video of Boko Haram ‘Conference’

• Boko Haram's credential as a violent organisation is established. It is anti-human hence its crimes are against humanity.
• Boko Haram is not an isolated & independent entity as it has supporters/patrons at the lowest geographies of Borno State, within Borno State political/economic system and within Nigeria. It has supporters/patrons beyond Nigeria in various important capitals.
• Boko Haram’s spokesperson is not the violent organisation.
• The spokesperson used at least 3 languages to address his different audiences.  Arabic is used to connect with Arabic speaking audience who in Nigeria are mostly Muslim elite versed in the classical and colloquial versions. Others include foreign sympathisers/supporters/handlers in different capitals. English is used to capture attention of Nigeria power brokers in Abuja and beyond. Hausa is used to secure focus attention of less wider metageography referred to as Northern Nigeria where Hausa is the lingua franca. The purpose is to seek fraudulent legitimacy from the population, ‘hearts & minds’, in this complex metageography. It is sad that there is no complete transcript of Boko Haram ‘conference’ in any section of Nigerian media! Maybe BBC Hausa Service could document it and surely the invited ‘international community’ will.
• Boko Haram expressed and espoused contradiction in feigning ignorance of learning and using its tools to disseminate its sick messages. The spokesperson is sophisticated enough to read from written text, reconnecting his thought and digression from it and referencing points from it.
• Boko Haram is monitoring its own performance, outcomes, reactions and impacts directly and indirect through supporters, handlers and sympathisers.
• The spokesperson and his cabal were facing north as his hand gesture towards Mali suggests in his litany of locations blighted by his colleagues.
• The 2 individuals immediate to the spokesperson’s left apparent look like females.  This is important to confirm in order to place their operation in the right context beyond the given male-dominated rhetoric of blood thirsty violent group.
• This latest abduction of over 200 young women may be a harbinger to Boko Haram's demise and or a major shift in the understood concept/reality of Nigeria.
• The truth about Boko Haram may not be truly known beyond anecdotes, conjectures and leaks because like other violent groups that emerged in the last decade post 9/11; their spokespersons/purported leaders are usually eliminated without benefit of prosecution. In each case the quick hurrah of their elimination masked the underlying things left untouched, unknown and unsaid. Their supporters/patrons/handlers are never identified and considering the miserable state of Nigeria, it will be a natural outcome unless conventional wisdom is proved wrong.

Geographical Analysis of Chibok Boko Haram Abduction

Introduction

As weeks gradually expand to a month, citizens’ trust & pressure on Nigerian government’s ability to rescue the abducted young women begins to mount. What happened last week was the climax of Abuja’s incoherence and dubious transfer of responsibility to ‘the international community’ i.e. United States including but not limited to the wife of the US president. Our concern in this piece is the geographical elements or connections towards successful rescue of all the girls.

Business Case with Caveat

With Abuja’s wake up and finally admission of slumber, a number of countries, the usual suspects, arrived the ‘scene’ ‘ready to help’ Nigeria with any resource required. Peruse the list; United States, United Kingdom, France and Israel. This lot wouldn't bat eyelids if the country in question produced only pawpaw. China offered to assist. Interestingly China's rise (in Nigeria/Africa) is a major factor in the usual suspects response. To perceive the depth of Abuja’s incompetency, it was credited that the French president advised for Abuja’s consultation with neighbouring states. Even though this is class 101 in crisis management/international relations, the hidden message is that Nigeria’s neighbour is France, so Paris rightly called the shot from Quai d’Orsay. Yaoundé, Ndjamena and Niamey are hardly free capitals beyond French realpolitik!

Data & Resources

It is not beyond Nigeria’s capacity and resources to successfully rescue these sisters without foreign assistance. Even if any is required, the legal spies from their Abuja & Lagos embassies should be enough.  Nevertheless the question now turns to what kind of resources are needed (by Nigeria) for the rescue operation.  Only one is most important, credible human resources including police, military & Secret Service within an efficient system; sadly this is lacking in Nigeria despite massive budgets running in trillions of Naira. The secondary resources include Geoinformation/Geographical Information System (GIS) tools and sophisticated telecommunication/surveillance equipments.

Geographical data is freely accessible on various Internet platforms such as Google, Yahoo, Yandex & Bing. Latest Satellite data is accessible on demand and payment. First step is opening a Google search engine and type in “Chibok” and open the map window in composite (Earth) mode to enable vegetation, routes and terrain to focus. This operation can be done in R or any open source platform. The caveat in this operation is that Google maps (of Africa) are usually outdated so current or latest detail of the previous 24 hours is only accessible through commercial arrangement with Google, Digital Globe or any military satellite provider. With zoom functions it is ease to ‘fly in’, ‘fly over’ and ‘fly out’ at various resolutions to confirm Chibok ‘borders’ and surrounding. Among other things to confirm is its isolation, its small population from counting dwellings and its aridity from scanty vegetation. See Google map below.

Chibok, Borno State

From reconnaissance it becomes apparent that this isolated clustered town less than 50km from Cameroonian border provides an important opportunity in that the members of the population more or less should know one another. A major factor in these areas is the climatic condition which is usually very hot and arid with little or no vegetation across swathes of land. This makes for clustered settlement near swallow water tables or rivers. The point of abduction i.e. the secondary school is identified and marked, the data was unavailable at the time of writing. Choosing a point as Chibok centre along the only main route, Damboa – Mayo-Bani Road, cutting it into two, a buffer of 3km completely encloses it. Mayo Bani is in Adamawa State.  See Google map below.

Damboa - Mayo Bani Road

From the school, where will Boko Haram take over 200 young women to for a considerable period of time? They must have planned their operation meticulously for successful capture and exit. If gender and climatic conditions are the primary variables, it is difficult to picture these girls farther away from Chibok. Even if Boko Haram possess significant resources in vehicles, fuel, mechanics, fresh water, medical personnel and medicine; they will not travel far. They have only 3 options after successful abduction; travel north toward Damboa (20km), or south to Askria (16km) & beyond or stay put in a large compound with many rooms in Chibok. See Google map below.

Chibok - Mayo Bani Road

My conclusion is based on among other things; Borno State as hotspot of Boko Haram offensive, a review of sparse route network, appreciating logistics complexity of abducting over 200 young women and scattered settlement pattern within a 100 sq km area around Chibok i.e. Damboa – Mayo Bani quadrangle. See Google map below. 

Damboa - Mayo Bani Quadrangle

Of course there are scattered settlements in the area, nevertheless their desire to keep the young women alive suggest that access to medical personnel, medical care and food puts Boko Haram in an awkward position for proximity to larger towns. Of course they possess greater local intelligence of points of interests, terrain and hydrogeology but in no way minimises the logistical challenge of abducting over 200 young women.

Houses Indeed

As I stated earlier over 200 young women can only be held in a large walled space with probably equal number of (male/female) observers/punishers with clear line of sight. They will supervising them at all times including but not limited to times of eating, bathing, cooking, cleaning, washing, praying, and even toilet. It requires a huge outlay of resources including waste management. Where will waste generated be dumped? Satellite imagery will help identify change in curious object size each day within/beyond residential wall where applicable, of course there are many dwelling to consider.

The only reason Boko Haram may take them out of Chibok is to minimise escape attempts implying a large walled dwelling distant from viable road. Nevertheless walled spacious dwellings in Chibok, Askria, Chul, Mayo Bani, Anjawa, Lassa and etc should be a priority. Geographical Information system offers powerful tools including Zoom and methodologies for identification and analyses in this area. There are many walled spacious dwellings in Chibok around the ‘borders’ especially in the north and west. See example in Google map below.

Examples of walled spacious dwelling North of Chibok

Telecommunication

Geographical data and their analyses alone are limited for a number of reasons. Considering the size of study area, huge human resources requirements for monitoring, observing and identifying potential real suspicious movements/behaviours/actions; telecommunication tools becomes imperatives. Sophisticated listening devices that monitor all telephone/mobile/satellite calls & their location in real time need to be deployed, including text message and email transaction surveillance tools. Probably this is where Abuja may have sought for assistance which the resident embassies possess for this day-to-day work against Nigeria’s interest.  Analyses of captured intercept call data/text messages/emails with Social Network Analytical (SNA) tools in addition to GIS results should generate interesting results of not only Boko Haram operatives but their sleeper supporters in high and low places within/beyond Nigeria.

Still

For all these requirements, tools, methods and personnel; Abuja doesn't need to compromise national interest/security by extending open-ended invitations to those countries whose interest in the matter run counter to Nigeria’s strategic interest. Yes, our sisters must be returned alive with not just their dignity intact but equally the dignity of all those who traditional and ontological homes fall within the boundaries of the leaking umbrella called Nigeria. 

Issues with Possible sighting of Boko Haram Abducted Girls in Central African Republic

Introduction

A report this morning in Punch newspaper suggests that the schoolgirls abducted by Boko Haram may have been sighted in Central African Republic. While this may not be impossible a number of issues suggest its implausibility. Taking into consideration the distance between Chibok, Nigeria and Birao, Central Africa Republic covers around 2140km by driving brings to fore critical points. See the Google map below.

Chibok, Nigeria - Birao, Central African Republic possible routes

 Points of Interest

1.  According to the Punch newspaper report the suggestion is that over 200 girls were transported across 4 countries probably within a week or two.  There is no other media report to collaborate even though the report cited Jeune Afrique of Friday 09/05/2014 as its source.
2.  This surely fits into duration it took Abuja to react. Lack of reaction from Abuja may have help Boko Haram in this action as borders may be open without instructions for closure or for extra full spectrum surveillance. This will also include potential inability of Abuja to inform/seek neighbouring countries to assist for complementary border closures/surveillance.
3.  Excellent roads and maintained infrastructure are lacking along the possible routes. Nevertheless there maybe cross-country collaborators in each country probably contacted by satellite or mobile phone which should normally be tracked where resources is available. I doubt if deliberate exposure enroute for satellite capture will be tolerated by Boko Haram hence my view that areas with higher vegetation density offers better covers. Remember Joseph Kony and his Lord Resistance Army holed up in the Central African Region dense vegetation which US assistance has failed to spot for over a year now.
4. The already sparse population of the Sahelian/desert region carries reduced activities for various governments in the region.
5. Most of the governments along possible routes lack well resourced border infrastructures
6. At least 10 vehicles will be needed to transport the young women provided at least with fresh water and basic consumables. Transporting large number of individuals is not a trivial task including stopping at intervals to resupply/refill fuel and abductors needs. Abductors are human beings too.
7. As the victims are young women in shock for days, inadequate sanitary conditions may not be easy for (Boko Haram) male abductors to handle for days on end unless they have women members taking charge of such delicate requirements. It is difficult to project a trouble-free scenario for bandits in a hurry.
8. Considering large number of these young women, meeting their eating, drinking, health and sanitary requirements will surely generate waste which will be a burden and clue against their abductors.
9. There is no doubt that the general well being of the young women will be less satisfactory despite their resilience to live in the horrific circumstance and there is no suggestion that their abductors are professionals in abduction and long-term seclusion.
10. There is no merit for Boko Haram to keep the girls alive when their core objective is killing of innocent individuals so why did they border with this line of action?  In a way or two they are under pressure rather than seek extra attention of which their capital is huge.
11.  It is my conjecture that the risk, logistics, complexity of transporting huge numbers of individuals mostly women makes it implausible that the report is valid.

Therefore I conclude that on the face of weak evidence, the girls are still alive within NE Nigeria probably in the southern part or any location with easy access to fresh water, food and toilets probably a large wall dwelling in an urban area.  

Geopolitical Assumptions & their Potential Connections on Boko Haram

Introduction

The recent abduction and hostage of secondary school girls by Boko Haram in Chibok, Borno State Nigeria has increased the insurgent group’s profile around the world. This is in part due to paralysis of Nigerian government to comprehensively tackle and eradicate Boko Haram after its emergence in 2009. It is the position of this piece that Boko Haram phenomenon involves more that meets the eyes including but not limited to potential connections at multiscalar & multidimensional levels within & beyond Nigeria.  The potential connection is a threat linking persons, states and institutions around the world.

Emergence

Boko Haram emerged in 2009 during the administration of late President Umaru Musa Yar'adua. Subsequent election of Dr Goodluck Jonathan as president after serving as vice-president and Acting President didn't dent or diminish their activity. There is no suggestion that the election of Dr Goodluck Jonathan methodologically enhanced their activity which will be simplistic and deterministic however it could be argued as part of variable mix. However a few issues remain unresolved within Nigeria including the fact that Nigeria remains politically and institutionally weak.  The stagnant and retrogressive state of institutions contributed to reduction of politics to personality struggles managed by coalitions of power brokers (s) elected from their political parties. The sustained state of affairs in Nigeria despite massive devolved political architecture lubricated with huge financial resources has been evaporated by successive administrations post Nigeria-Biafra War. There is surely a gap for failed politicians at local, state and federal levels to attempt to fill in misplacing priority of the genuine anger of miserable peoples.

However it seems that at some level violence is a profitable commodity. Prior to Boko Haram, Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) was a sub-regional template for securing special attention of Abuja by South-South geopolitical region albeit by violent means. In any case MEND was ‘settled’ with oil that is ‘flowing with pressure’ from their land.  So internal patrons of Boko Haram calculated that the complexity of the personality politics may trigger favourable winds to their sails if they deploy similar tools of industrial violence for a run on the federation account.

Internal Contradictions

Boko Haram carries a lot of contradictions internal and external to Nigeria. The emergence of the group has been locked in an ugly unproductive narrative which is very simplistic. Internally, Abuja under Dr Goodluck Jonathan has folded into inactivity in taking Boko Haram serious talk less of engaging or understanding it. One may conclude that Abuja drifted into an uncomfortable position that the group will simply go away as if the hotspot is beyond its jurisdiction and territorial integrity. Unfortunately, the emergence of Boko Haram is a complex affair with ramifications within and beyond Nigeria.  If one reviews overall Federal Government pathetic effort in engaging an asymmetrical group like Boko Haram; my case for disconnection of politicians, weakness of institutions, and absent government becomes tenable. There is no doubt that local and national political elite/brokers/machines from the North East & wider North geopolitical region may have potential link to the menace.

It is an insult to the glorious history of builders and consolidators of Kamen-Bornu Empire that a bunch of renegades operating a covert and overt machine is decimating their children and descendants generations later.  Boko Haram’s sad narrative is opposite and retrogressive that only disgrace can be attributed to NE & Northern Nigeria politicians and elites justifying it. Kanem-Bornu Empire was one of the powerful and strategic political configurations prior to colonisation that needs to focus minds (Davidson et al, 1977 p 97 - 103). The personage of Mai Idris Alooma is striking (Davidson et al, 1977 p.101). No empire lasts forever and the present peoples of NE Nigeria should be able to re-link their heritage to the achievements of their ancients including but not limited to Kanem-Bornu Empire.

The card of anti-(western) education is nonsensical. To suggest that northern Nigerians albeit in the North East are against (western) education is narrow-minded and stupid. This view has no traction, is simplistic and has no merit. The problems of the North are inflated by self-reductionism & confused identity nevertheless one must appreciate the complexity of political systems undergoing change. Northern Nigeria is an artificial metageographical platform whose utility has evaporated long ago while its profiteers continue to hang onto it passionately with inter-generational nepotism. Northern Nigeria is not a monolith. Their leaders’ retrogressive collective bargain with undeclared dividend to their followers is the death keel of the North. One of the fallout of Boko Haram will be re-evaluation of power structures within the mythic North since the abductees are from the North East. Of course of what remains of Nigeria!

Education did not emerge with the west and any reading of Basil Davidson’s book on African history including Kanem-Bornu Empire among others will testify that Northern Nigeria intellectual self-flagellation/deprecation is pathetic. Following it up with another lunacy that educational experience recorded in non-Latin script which is rightly a bomber. Arabic, Greek, Cyrillic, Chinese, Korean and Indian scripts have been media of excellence, discoveries and advancement recording and intergenerational transfers of knowledge across the ages.

From the external front there are a number of issues that need to be reviewed carefully. In the highly networked world, a serious event cannot be isolated to its primary geography. An explosion of a violence machine in the post 9/11 world is not a fair wind rather is a sinister well-connected instrument to blunt peoples and arrest their collective development.  If attention is paid to the religious angle of the insurgency, Boko Haram is a violent expression of erroneous Islam related to evil machinations. While latter day emergence of Islamic fervour hovers around and reaching Africa with late intensity, one must pay attention to many West African communities from Ghana to Senegal and appreciate their positive Islamic heritages, noble expressions and life-giving advancements.  Boko Haram is not Islam, not even anything like expressed by West African communities of faithful.

Asian Pivot Clarity

To understand African events in the last decade or more, it will be useful to address the rise of China and how United States is confronting it. China is gradually becoming a global brand, the second largest economy (to become the biggest in less than 10 years) and has the largest trade/current account surplus. As an amalgam of developed and developing economy, China is expanding and consolidating its economic growth based on challenging apparent terrains/backyards of the United States including huge investment in Africa’s extractive industries and market.  With Washington DC strategically refocusing its foreign policy means diminishing the importance of Middle East including Israel. 

With European Union’s castration in the bag including the baggage of World War 2 rescue dividend, Washington DC has holistically pitched its strategic assets to contain Beijing in an overarching policy called Asian Pivot.  It is a full spectrum policy to limit or diminish Beijing influence across the world politically, economically, culturally, militarily and technologically.

With Africa and her vast mineral resources open to the world market and the highest bidder, China naturally attempts to fill the gap to extract and obtain raw materials for its insatiable domestic demands. Of course with her policy of non-intervention in internal affairs of other countries, obviously Beijing invested billions of money including huge grants; Africa is booming in part for Chinese investment. With International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank effectively sidelined in Africa, both part of Washington Consensus, United States calculated that Beijing can be limited in her African jamboree through military means. In United State African Command (US AFRICOM), Washington DC recreated a policy and tool to recolonise Africa based on securing its continental shelves, geological and hydrogeological reserves. 

The only African country that rejected US AFRICOM publicly was Colonel Ghaddafi’s Libya and his country was decimated in the name of humanitarian intervention and Medvedev syndrome.  Billions of Russian and Chinese investments went down the pan as Libya was bombed back into Stone Age.  Beijing containment in Africa possesses toolset like ‘regime change’ where applicable and destabilisation with Islamic extremists. The fall of Tripoli purported to have unleashed Islamic fundamentalists across West Africa is red herring. With a domino effect on Mali where China invested heavily, it is not surprising that the apparent collapse and pacification of west half of Africa is systematically secured by US AFRICOM. One can even claim that Africa (North) head is completely shaved.

As North Africa (from Rabat to Cairo) folded, the next target albeit a client of US to all intents and purposes even though Chinese interests hovers, is Nigeria.  A number of events in the last decade placed Nigeria on the crosshairs of geopolitics especially since Beijing came to town. First was MEND that came and went. Second was US establishment of a drone base in Niamey International Airport, Niger; less than 500km North West of Abuja. Third, Boko Haram emerged in 2009. Bear in mind that any country that is regime changed and or destabilised successfully is open in the interim to unchecked US occupation and control. Check Grenada, Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali and etc.

In the case of Nigeria with an apparent weakness in politics, governance and institutions and very rich in resources; it perfectly fits into a picture of candidate to be secured against Chinese demand for mineral resources.  With the recent abduction of school girls in Chibok, in addition to pathetic response from Abuja, laced with world (Russia) distraction in Ukraine; US intervention may be the first step in a series of gradual moves to finally checkmate Nigeria. President Goodluck Jonathan’s performance is similar to Malian Captain Amadou Sanogo’s action in context. Indifferent and unjustifiable reaction to serious issues of national interest as master stroke for humanitarian intervention of the sole hegemonic power is evident in both cases. 

If US invest her military resources along mineral resources supply lines of China, Beijing will be forced to react in non-military ways but actually denied the resources. However in the interim her supply is diminished although increased demand will kick prices up which can be moderated in a way or two.

Opportunity in Pacification

What will be the fate of pacified Nigeria? This is a difficult scenario to unpick however a few ideas need to be considered seriously. Either Nigeria is dissolved by US occupation alias containment which is methodologically feasible or the potential of new Nigeria is seriously explored. As a weak country, peoples or ethnic nations of Nigeria have failed to have honest conversation of their raison d’ etre since 1960. 

Various political architectural reconfigurations have failed to quench demand for justice, self-determination and stability in Nigeria. It may well transpire that various ethnic nations will utilise potential US occupation to engage in serious debates and discussions on the reasons for having Nigeria or not if they agree in the affirmation will justify fighting to save it. Now to fight for it is another matter beyond the scope of this piece. Whichever way Nigeria ends up, either as one or in many parts, only force will ensure stability in one or simultaneously in many parts unless mineral resources are exhausted totally.   

Reference

Davidson, B., Buah F.K., Ade Ajayi., (1977) A History of West Africa 1000 - 1800. Harlow: Longman