Neo-confederacy and a new Nigeria

Introduction

A new dawn is emerging on the wreckage known as Nigeria. While economic woes, policy confusion and political obstacles dominate the headlines, the underlying forces and processes are taking new forms with significant import mostly ignored by the population. This article attempts to bring together historical snapshots and emerging process of national governance that is changing power forces in the beleaguered country.

On the back of conflicts

A musician once waxed that Ghanaians appreciated Nkrumah only when he died. Human memory is limited on every scale even in digital era and mass publications. The currency of political events in Nigeria has forced citizens to recall the greatness of the previous administration. One of the masterstrokes of Dr Goodluck Jonathan’s administration was realising that no army can fight in more than a theatre simultaneously. Among other things he contained the insurrection in the South-South to extract room to engage seriously with the onslaught in the North East. Moreover South-South holds most of the recoverable crude oil reserves. It paid off but the dividend wasn’t obvious at the time.

General of all conflicts

The new administration wasted no time to unleash different battles on various fronts simultaneously. Evidence of feasibility studies, cost-benefit analysis and scenario analysis of these escalations are hard to find. This resulted in continued offensive in the North East, renewed conflict in South-South and in corruption-land. North East conflict though with less strategic impetus is moving towards ‘frozen’ status, corruption war is bogged down while South-South is reconfiguring the country. Given that South-South conflict is long-running and crude oil is at the centre, the new administration seems to have overplayed its hand with old-school mentality of One-Nigeria by any means necessary. 

Money is power

When the new administration took office, South-South was calmer but tense. The national amnesty was running toward expiration/renewal. Abuja kept all in suspense on strategy and potential moves. Observers expected anything given precedence despite many battle fronts already in active mode. Considering the strategic value of South-South, sagging national revenue and malfeasance in the economy; a better approach would have ensued. 

Abuja refused to read tea leaves properly and joined battle with South-South armed groups. The first law of conflict which Napoleon understood is that war cannot be advanced without a buoyant economy. In addition the armed forces is demoralised, have depleted arsenal and restricted supplies. On the contrary, the armed groups are mobile, savvy and sophisticated. They are armed with advanced weapons and other technological gadgets in addition to local intelligence on oil assets and installations locations. 

Battle of Tactics vs Strategy

While limited resources is spent by the state on moving men, equipments and weapons of the armed forces from various locations to the theatre; the armed group played for time in their home turf. With local advantage as the armed forces engaged, the armed groups knocked out few critical oil installations, ground crude oil export and froze the national economy. Without crude oil export money into government coffers is reduced. Each day millions of naira is lost for nearly a year and government cannot posture out as propaganda has already diminished the armed groups. The government has been forced by tough economic barometer and weak strategic position to confront reality. Either Abuja climbs down, safe face and negotiate or the rot continues indefinitely. The country boils on.

Reconfigurations to new Nigeria

South-South armed groups and their political interlocutors have scored a strategic victory in redefining the role of non-state actors and extra-federal political forces to shape the country. They are gradually proving that the future of Nigeria lies not at the centre rather in the outliers. Power is shifting from other locations to South-South for real. One of the reasons for this outcome is the long dismissal of their grievances as distraction by the centre. Now it is becoming clear that Nigeria’s future lies in the South-South. They have the armed group, crude oil, the human resources and the technological assets to pursue their strategic design for space within Nigeria. How long they will last is open, they have contradictions.

Historically recollections can confirm advancement of advantage over colonial distortions, Biafra, Ogoni eruptions and MEND skirmishes. Once again Aburi Declaration comes to the fore. Memories of Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu bubbles up as he smiles in his grave! Resource control by real resource owner is inevitable. Confederation is emerging without the name and this political reality is difficult to dismiss. So far crude oil remains the main economic lifeline of Nigeria the emerging realignment cannot be erased, South-South has come of age to stay as a major player. They have the means to control access, supply and delivery of crude oil in real time. While zero-sum game is not an option, what is not also an option is total elimination of the experience by force. So negotiation table is the only game in town. Power is no longer in Abuja, Sokoto or Kaduna; it is in South-South.  The peoples are watching, the nations maybe itching!

Geopolitical Baggage

One of the most unfortunate consensus is the diplomatic coldness of geopolitical powers on Abuja. Despite perceived openness, Washington DC has maintained a strategic distance. She focused on recovering if possible her Middle East credentials with Ankara’s revived strategic autonomy on the back of the recent past coup attempt. In addition the TIPP trade deal which should have secured Asian pivot is unravelling with Vietnam cooling down and Philippines boldly asserting that Beijing has come of age. Russia is unconcerned with African file confirming that Moscow (Bolshevik or not) doesn’t ‘want a hand in the African sun’.  Following Brexit as General De Gaulle expected, United Kingdom is finally settling down to her real post-colonial small size while EU continues with ill-fated attempt to mix ‘clay with iron’.

Conclusion

Reconfiguration of Nigeria is unfolding to a new level. Unexpected convergence of forces has rubbished old template of power. Ethnic politics is potent and South-South is pointing out the contours of confederal accommodation with strategic economic and political implications. The centre may not hold as it was known for too long. Many may not notice for a longer time either.

Summary of Infantile Conclusions of National Economy Nigeria-Speak

Introduction

All of a sudden national media is collectively pouring out of the various voices of pseudo-reason on the state of the national economy as if anything radical is taking place. Nevertheless there is an overdrive in warning about it in the similar manner elites shout on the ‘indivisibility of one Nigeria’ while all along dividing it by proxy. Now everyone with microphone is nothing short of a Nobel Laureate in Economics waxing lyrical on macro side of the sun at one time and forgetting the meat of the story all the time before and after. So what is missing? Have a ride on the short summary below.

A State devoid of State

There are 2 main cohorts in the population found within the territory called Nigeria; the silent victims-majority across all ethnic nations and the loud minority elite interlocking in a powerful network across all ethnic nations. The majority have watched national events since 1914 and concluded that watching is not a bad trait. In a twist of fate watching is appropriated as a positive variable on quality of life for this group. They diligently watch the elite eviscerate everything a state should be in the last 3 generations which only produced confusion, waste, malfeasance and death. Therefore they cannot be deceived into accepting that the economy should be robust in confusion lighted by controlled demolition of state structures. Where is the State in Nigeria?

Denial of History

One of the highest achievements of the loud minority is the elimination of history and History from national consciousness. Even before 24-hours news arrived to decapitate attention span and thinking, the dogma of ahistoricity was instituted with seamlessness that an average majority can only in silence seek his/her roots beyond the 2^nd generation. The drowning on his/her soul on technical secular education dehumanised his essence to the level of immediate sensory perception devoid of context. He/she is free to condemn those who came before without and against reason while evidence piles for consumption.

No, it is not validated by the North. No Dr Kenneth Dike, the foremost economist historian and his like count for nothing. Even as the last blocks of neoliberal edifice successfully managed by Chinese communists totters, he/she refuses to recall the wisdom of the past. If you don’t know yesterday/origin, how can tomorrow/destination be navigable? If such journey were Nigerian economy? What goes up comes down and up again. Remember Shagari administration? How much did crude oil sell under his watch? If you care check it out!

Consumption without Production (Financialisation)

First of all there is no electricity and by the way the refineries are condemned for sale. Solar energy is toy on serious development. For the past 40 years Nigeria has been selling crude oil and other unaccounted national resources, spend the income on anything money can buy including imported toothpicks. Yes, General Gowon (Syndrome) unleashed this demon that refuses to leave the hall called Nigeria. For all the noise, policy documents, implementation initiatives and prostitution for foreign investment; production is minus. 

Even money is exported to foreign banks and the other nations’ wastes are imported for show. And you are asking why the economy has tanked? Toxic waste was once imported into Nigeria with bill of lading to boot and cleared at a port near either Warri or Sapele. No, it is not CBN, independent or not whatever it means! If you don’t produce and don’t save; surely after the rain comes the sun or vice versa.

Unaccounted Accumulation not Resource Scarcity

When the current administration blamed the preceding one for all the ills and wrongs of the country, you wonder if Nigeria has been under former President since 1960. National power has changed hands between elites with and without uniform. National accountability is anathema in Nigeria, the tradition has taken root and to uproot it will take more than singing in one’s evening of life. If there was a government(s) that paid attention to economic accountability, it expired in 1966.

So crude oil can sell for any price by the way the selling price is not fixed or determined in Nigeria or by Nigerians. They can sell it in Naira which is even splendid at least there will be no temptation to print money or prop it up with another paper called US dollar. Unsold volumes remain underground for another day. Until sold crude oil receipts are audited and accounted for let every trap simply shut its dignity on current diving prices.  

Ignorance of Geopolitics

Who is Nigeria’s Foreign Minister? Until the economy improves and domestic arena takes shape!

While we wait for answer to the above question to filter in, the last few months have displayed an administration that deliberated extricates itself from real global geopolitical reconfiguration. The visit to US, attendance of G7 summit and other western diplomatic soup kitchens all point to the same door; Washington DC. There are other parts of the world and other serious players too. Unreconstructed western-centricity is disastrous in foreign policy as Malaysia showed in the 1990s.

Few warning signs were ringing. US recalibrated her position on Nigeria by stopping crude oil imports. Buyers are customers and customer is king but Abuja can only swallow likes and dislikes given her by Washington DC. In addition US under an ‘African-American’ showed real Africa policy in Libya and Egypt, and what happened to terrorism? Any lessons or do you read only democracy while others see naked power? Is Nigeria not threatened?

OPEC ceased to exist with the passing of Venezuela’s Commandante Hugo Chavez and retirement of Iran’s Dr Mahmoud Ahmedinajad. Next Saudi Arabia launched is geopolitical offensive in 2015 with overproduction phalanx and continues the policy till date. The dividend is in the crystal ball. The icing on the cake is her all-out offensive on Yemen; surely Riyadh can fight on many fronts. Any lesson for Abuja?

Lastly, we warned about potential impacts of a successful conclusion of Iran – P5+1 nuclear negotiation. There were no takers in Abuja. Tehran is singing for snatching a deal from Washington DC without paying in war blood, Havana did the same. Any lesson for Abuja or Nigerians? Crude oil price will dive into single digit before stabilising. OPEC may go, Yemeni conflict ceases and new contracting quota system subsists for crude oil price to go north.

Conclusion

Crude oil glut and price depression have their time. Many responsible countries lack crude oil and care more for crude oil exporter's revenue (legal and illegal). Nigerians, please wake up.

Nigeria Pay Salaries and Pensions (On Time and Regularly)

Introduction

The change of guard at the helm of national affairs following 2015 presidential election initially and naturally generated loads of expectations and enthusiasm for positive outcomes probably in the long rather than in the short term. As the dust of expectation settles it is becoming apparent that business as usual in the negation of basic activities of a population is consolidated. In short the regressive state of salary and pension payments has continued. This ugly practice must stop.

Confusion Incorporated

It started with promises without inside experience. Then once inside all economic problems and undiscovered information were blamed on the immediate past administration. The ongoing trend is belated broadcasting of alleged national thievery by elites (associated only with the previous administration) which is no news until a conviction is secured with time in jail to boot. In the background it took 6 months to get the national cabinet in order while experience of abuse of processes continued infinitum. Such a package of actions for an incoming administration is rich in significance.

Money Matters of the Commons

What is evident is that for a very long time probably starting from the inception of post-Nigeria-Biafra War Gowon Syndrome i.e. the issue is not how much money you but how to spend it. Most of the commons employed by the state at the federal, state and local levels constitute the main lifelines to most of the population. They are not your so-called elite and big shots with powerful connection to enter CBN under instruction from above for bags of Ghana-must-go of Naira or any foreign denomination of choice. These are common men and women with families to feed, rents to pay, responsibilities to deliver, services and succour to provide and expectations to meet. There are credits to cover, arrears to drawdown and debts to clear.

Sadly month end no longer has its known meaning. Month end is now an unending long rolling temporal plane generating only pain, anger, frustration and death. Many have died from preventable and aggravated illness due to non-payment and or delayed payment of due salary/pension. Sure the state has turned a crafty killer of her won employees! Why should a village, community, town or city thrive when cash flow is unstable? Why should small business grow when the log book is filled with customer debt? The customers are cousins, friends, kinsmen, in-laws and neighbours.

Grand Indicator

Resolving salary and pension payment should have been the first assignment by the current administration.

The government must stop these malicious and premeditated attacks on unprotected citizens. Public employees of all levels must be paid monthly and on time. While some dream of volume of electricity, GDP, reserve and crude oil price as indicator of national status at a time; the named indicators and more are useless when a state cannot ensure payment of salaries/pension in its territory in peace time. This is even complicated by opening of one’s books to intruders like IMF harking back to the confusion mentioned earlier.

We are waiting for the President to vigorously advance this matter immediately making example of APC states and local government. The problem is that this issue may take few tranches of 6 months or rather be a tropical surprise. Enough of gnashing of teeth by public servants and senior citizens imposed on them by their elected. So much for democracy! 

Corruption Incorporated in Evolutionary Geography of Nigeria

Introduction

The so-called nascent democracy of Nigeria since 1999 is not only a watershed in political geography but provides important threshold on the question of her viability as a state. As the majority carry on with their victimhood, the elite have sustained and extended their grip on flagrant abuse of natural resources in the period. The ongoing exposure and dissemination of corruption allegations at the Federal level by the current administration opens a new phase conclusively rubbishing ethnicity as the primary cause of instability. This is the attention of this piece.

Multi-Ethnic Hierarchical State

Nigeria’s political geography was crafted by the British Empire within a strategic (inter-generational) geopolitical framework driven by economic expediency. This design was installed in 1914 and remains to all intents and purposes consolidated to the present day. Within the framework which remains unquestioned by subsequent generations of Nigerian elite and intelligentsia, the peoples of the territory were balkanised between majority and minority with the minorities nested in a regressive hierarchical structure to the majorities.

On this ill-fated diet of political potion many Nigerians have been fed permitting majority of them to appropriate pathological ethnic superiority over the rest. However underneath such unquestioned psychological template is the usual divide and rule installed by Pax Britannica. Sadly the elite including the current President and administration will not question it. Nevertheless the validity and veracity of this thesis remains undermined and inconclusive for many reasons since 1960.

There is no solid evidence that majorities of each ethnic nation benefit from abuse of national resources by any of their members.  What obtained and continues is the elevation and securitisation of elites for a single reason that transfer of power at Independence simply consolidated exclusion of the commons. Democracy in an essence is a mask/vehicle for controlling majority by a few. Unfortunately many citizens have died and properties lost in the ignorant zeal towards implementing ethnic superiority.

National Spread of Corruption Defying Ethnicity

The current phase of the political history is projects a reconfiguration process which is truly amazing in that it is gradually unmasking the lie of ethnicity as a serious driver of national instability whatever it means. Given that in Nigeria questions are not asked of seating and previous administration performance, anything goes. The unserious and meandering attempt to fix the economy has resulted in a minor unavoidable consequence. What elites do in government covertly is seeing the light of day; of course no serious person expects prosecution nay conviction in a court of law.

However the expose of very senior officials from various ethnic nations allegedly involved in misappropriating national budget at the Federal level is instructive. The former National Security Adviser to President Goodluck Jonathan (Ijaw), Alhaji Sambo Dasuki (Hausa/Fulani) is alleged to have mislaid and misused billions of naira. Parallel recipients of misappropriated Federal funds include Chief Olu Falae (Yoruba), Alhaji Yankassi (Hausa), Dr Ray Dokpesi (minority), Chief Tony Anineh (Edo State minority), Mr Nduka Obaigbena (?)and many others.

There are tens and probably hundred of names from various ethnic nations to be made public from various allegations not just from the immediate past administration but from previous administrations if need be. Despite that this is an exercise in exploration, the immediate impact should be on the relationship ethnicity plays. The underlying pattern is the interlocking relationship of the privileged elite across ethnic nations rather than on weak correlation between ethnicity and national instability.

Summary

There is little to be expected from the current administration in terms of using legal means to meet the peoples’ expectation. This is not based on doubting its credibility and ability rather in the face of long complex process of national destruction, rather an admission that coherence and pace of policy implementation time is limited, average 6 months per policy a la Federal Cabinet selection. However evidence is mounting for those who regard Nigeria as their origin to start reconfiguring their erstwhile political educational foundation. It is crucial for them to start reconscientising their worldviews that other ethnic peoples are not the enemy, that conclusion is and has always been false.