A new dawn is emerging on the wreckage known
as Nigeria. While economic woes, policy confusion and political obstacles
dominate the headlines, the underlying forces and processes are taking new
forms with significant import mostly ignored by the population. This article
attempts to bring together historical snapshots and emerging process of
national governance that is changing power forces in the beleaguered country.
On the back of conflicts
A musician once waxed that Ghanaians appreciated Nkrumah only
when he died. Human memory is limited on every scale even in digital era and
mass publications. The currency of political events in Nigeria has forced
citizens to recall the greatness of the previous administration. One of the
masterstrokes of Dr Goodluck Jonathan’s administration was realising that no
army can fight in more than a theatre simultaneously. Among other things he
contained the insurrection in the South-South to extract room to engage
seriously with the onslaught in the North East. Moreover South-South holds most
of the recoverable crude oil reserves. It paid off but the dividend wasn’t
obvious at the time.
General of all conflicts
The new administration wasted no time to unleash different
battles on various fronts simultaneously. Evidence of feasibility studies, cost-benefit
analysis and scenario analysis of these escalations are hard to find. This
resulted in continued offensive in the North East, renewed conflict in
South-South and in corruption-land. North East conflict though with less
strategic impetus is moving towards ‘frozen’ status, corruption war is bogged
down while South-South is reconfiguring the country. Given that South-South
conflict is long-running and crude oil is at the centre, the new administration
seems to have overplayed its hand with old-school mentality of One-Nigeria by
any means necessary.
Money is power
When the new administration took office, South-South was
calmer but tense. The national amnesty was running toward expiration/renewal.
Abuja kept all in suspense on strategy and potential moves. Observers expected
anything given precedence despite many battle fronts already in active mode. Considering
the strategic value of South-South, sagging national revenue and malfeasance in
the economy; a better approach would have ensued.
Abuja refused to read tea leaves properly and joined battle
with South-South armed groups. The first law of conflict which Napoleon
understood is that war cannot be advanced without a buoyant economy. In
addition the armed forces is demoralised, have depleted arsenal and restricted
supplies. On the contrary, the armed groups are mobile, savvy and
sophisticated. They are armed with advanced weapons and other technological
gadgets in addition to local intelligence on oil assets and installations
locations.
Battle of Tactics vs Strategy
While limited resources is spent by the state on moving men,
equipments and weapons of the armed forces from various locations to the theatre;
the armed group played for time in their home turf. With local advantage as the
armed forces engaged, the armed groups knocked out few critical oil
installations, ground crude oil export and froze the national economy. Without
crude oil export money into government coffers is reduced. Each day millions of
naira is lost for nearly a year and government cannot posture out as propaganda
has already diminished the armed groups. The government has been forced by
tough economic barometer and weak strategic position to confront reality.
Either Abuja climbs down, safe face and negotiate or the rot continues
indefinitely. The country boils on.
Reconfigurations to new Nigeria
South-South armed groups and their political interlocutors
have scored a strategic victory in redefining the role of non-state actors and
extra-federal political forces to shape the country. They are gradually proving
that the future of Nigeria lies not at the centre rather in the outliers. Power
is shifting from other locations to South-South for real. One of the reasons
for this outcome is the long dismissal of their grievances as distraction by
the centre. Now it is becoming clear that Nigeria’s future lies in the
South-South. They have the armed group, crude oil, the human resources and the
technological assets to pursue their strategic design for space within Nigeria.
How long they will last is open, they have contradictions.
Historically recollections can confirm advancement of
advantage over colonial distortions, Biafra, Ogoni eruptions and MEND
skirmishes. Once again Aburi Declaration comes to the fore. Memories of
Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu bubbles up as he smiles in his grave! Resource
control by real resource owner is inevitable. Confederation is emerging without
the name and this political reality is difficult to dismiss. So
far crude oil remains the main economic lifeline of Nigeria the emerging
realignment cannot be erased, South-South has come of age to stay as a major
player. They have the means to control access, supply and delivery of crude oil
in real time. While zero-sum game is not an option, what is not also an option
is total elimination of the experience by force. So negotiation table is the
only game in town. Power is no longer in Abuja, Sokoto or Kaduna; it is in
South-South. The peoples are watching, the nations maybe itching!
Geopolitical Baggage
One of the most unfortunate consensus is the diplomatic
coldness of geopolitical powers on Abuja. Despite perceived openness,
Washington DC has maintained a strategic distance. She focused on recovering if
possible her Middle East credentials with Ankara’s revived strategic autonomy
on the back of the recent past coup attempt. In addition the TIPP trade deal
which should have secured Asian pivot is unravelling with Vietnam cooling down
and Philippines boldly asserting that Beijing has come of age. Russia is
unconcerned with African file confirming that Moscow (Bolshevik or not) doesn’t
‘want a hand in the African sun’. Following
Brexit as General De Gaulle expected, United Kingdom is finally settling down
to her real post-colonial small size while EU continues with ill-fated attempt
to mix ‘clay with iron’.
Conclusion
Reconfiguration of Nigeria is unfolding to a new level.
Unexpected convergence of forces has rubbished old template of power. Ethnic
politics is potent and South-South is pointing out the contours of confederal
accommodation with strategic economic and political implications. The centre
may not hold as it was known for too long. Many may not notice for a longer time
either.
