Post-Abdullah Saudi Arabia in the Geopolitical Order

Saudi Arabia Geopolitical Fortunes

Introduction

The recent death and burial of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia opened up a narrow window of time for consideration and analyses of his erstwhile positions especially his foreign policy. Now it is important to pay particular attention to those who took which position, who made specific responses and the target audience for the taken positions and responses. While cacophony of views overhangs, it is the position of this article that the most important subject is lost in the argument which is declining Saudi Arabia position in a geopolitically reconfiguring world. This is the discourse.

From the Outside

Saudi Arabia is known for 2 subjects, Islam and crude oil.  Everything item or object of attention and discussion revolves around or is nested in both subjects. The implication is huge because depending on your location in the world, the determinant of your interaction with Riyadh as a state depends on your religious disposition, your need/demand for her type of crude oil and her demand for niche goods/service your country produces. This is also the summary of Riyadh’s foreign policy and geopolitics since the end of WW2.

The Reality or Realpolitik

Saudi Arabia runs like many other countries of the world with its set of unique worldviews, expectations, assumptions and projections. It is a very rich country by many indicators which implies a dense connection with the outside world based on strong alignment with her strategic objectives. As an integral anchor in the comity of nations, she welds influence even beyond her ‘sphere of influence’ mostly in concert with other powers which is felt strongly at critical points of world history. A number of inflection points include 1970s alliance with crude oil producers (small powers) to cut production leading to global skyrocketing of prices with the attendant consequences.

In the 1980s Riyadh’s influence was projected against former USSR in Afghanistan through concerted support with USA of anti-USSR forces in the country. That influence continues to reverberate even today. When Iraq invaded Iran in 1980, the conflict was sustained in part due to Riyadh’s influence and collaboration with United States in a grand strategy that perceived Islamic Republic of Iran as a strategic threat to hegemonic and regional influences respectively.

Missing Pointers

The most important foreign policy of Saudi Arabia is the outcome of King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud’s summit with US President Roosevelt in 1945. The enactment of strategic relationship and partnership remains the cornerstone the Kingdoms’ foreign policy and geostrategic initiatives. Be mindful that 3 years later the state of Israel will come into being and a new dynamic emerges to consolidate over time.  What is interesting is King Abdul Aziz’s position on potential state of Israel in the neighbourhood and the questions he posed on the matter.

The first real test of Riyadh – Washington DC relationship came in the 1973 Arab – Israeli War. To King Faisal (Riyadh)’s surprise Washington DC sided with Tel Aviv and refused to countenance Riyadh’s concerns and consideration. Whether King Faisal wanted to recalibrate relationship with United States remains unclear but he showed his hand by playing the crude oil card.  There is no evidence that relations with United States was to be downgraded as the only other superpower was atheistic USSR, an anathema to Riyadh. Nevertheless despite the message, Riyadh was condemned to accept her position as 2^nd fiddle in US Middle East policy. Simultaneously, Riyadh had to contend with Shah’s Iran at the time projected a friendly posture towards both Washington DC and Tel Aviv.

A minor issue to consider is that in the aftermath of 1970s crude oil crisis, Riyadh agreed with Washington DC to rescue free-floating US dollar through backing it up with her huge profits deposited in US banks and denoting all OPEC crude oil transactions in US dollar. While this policy maybe contradictory to many observers, what is very clear is that Riyadh had few cards to play against US for a number of reasons. Her domestic aspirations devoid of any opposition are modest which secure revenue can handle, absence of strong domestic public opinion, prioritising economic pacification of the ruling family members and preponderance of stability in the region.

Precedence of Strategically Important Files & Inevitable Demotion 

2 dates set the scene in the region and have since strategically determined subsequent actions and reactions of all players. 1976 ignited Lebanon to open confessional conflagration which still defines that country. 1979 brought in the Islamic Republic of Iran. On these 2 events and outcomes Riyadh’s confessional disposition compelled her to lead, resist and regress those deemed opponents even in concert with erstwhile enemies. While the profile of Shias (Hezbollah) rose sharply and stabilised in Lebanon, Tehran consolidated around the Islamic Republic.

US went to Lebanon and returned empty handed in 1981/82. Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 and returned empty handed in 2000. Riyadh advised against 2003 Iraqi invasion but was shunned by Washington DC, as a consequence Tehran’s influence advanced to Saudi-Iraqi border. Riyadh’s position in the region never changed until 2003. It remained 2^nd behind Israel. Riyadh’s influence and power on Israel over the years is miserly on the Palestinian question even under late King Abdullah. Tel Aviv remains in ascendant indicating negative outcome of Riyadh diplomacy. Various Arab republics may share similar positions especially post-Mubarak Egyptian public.

Iranian resistance paid off with Washington DC rapprochement through initiative secret channel (Oman) of dialogue and negotiation. The secrecy was advanced against perceived and apparent resistance of Tel Aviv and feeble displeasure of Riyadh.  It is a known fact that Washington DC has acknowledged Tehran’s regional geopolitical heavyweight hence pushing Riyadh down the pecking order. Riyadh’s position was further eroded in her questionably joining Tel Aviv’s anti-Iran nuclear file without making forceful case for regional denuclearisation on the part of Israel.

Mixed Signals

United States is sending mixed signals to various allies in the region. Iran has an alternative and complex relationship with Washington DC and as such is not her dependent. The last geopolitical act of King Abdullah was supporting Palestine UN application torpedoed by United States rather than by Israel. Another black mark on Riyadh receding influence! With reducing crude oil purchase by United States Washington DC may be considering recalibrating relations with Riyadh pushing the latter further down the dependency ladder.

A stalemate in Syria and consolidation of President Bashar Al-Assad may have reflected his earlier view that Arab leaders are half men. Riyadh is not on a winning side! The south east underbelly is in tatters as Yemen erupts in ungovernable turmoil hence significant stretch of Saudi Arabia’s land border have become vulnerable. Bahrain remains uncertain despite Saudi Arabia-led 'humanitarian intervention' few years ago.

The ongoing geopolitical deployment of crude oil price depression by Saudi Arabia which has hurt & benefited many national economies remains open to interpretation. What is clear is on this edict of late King Abdullah is that beyond raising global concerns, it is unsustainable for Riyadh more so in the fact the nearly 90% of her revenue come from crude oil. Such policy is questionable and may return to haunt Riyadh in future depending on the uncertainty of its end.

Ankara is throwing fits and tantrums genuinely drawn from initial Washington DC encouragement (and later betrayal) to join in the expected overthrow of Damascus. President Edorgan can now settle for absence of no-fly zone in northern Syria, deflation of posture and haranguing Syrian Kurds against autonomous administration in Syria. Finally President Barack Obama glided across the India Oceans to avoid Auschwitz Holocaust memorial in Poland for condolence visit to King Salman in Riyadh with his wife's hair uncovered in equal measure symbolising disregard for Riyadh. By so doing he deftly ignored perceive top ally and projected higher objective in paying condolence visit to the lower ailing ally. Another US president may or may not perform such ritual less than a decade away. 

Compromising the Armed Forces and Intelligence Apparatus by Nigeria's Personality Politics

Nigeria We Hail Thee! towards 2015 Presidential Election

Introduction

There is an emerging trend in Nigerian national politics. This trend is more or less a spectre haunting Nigerians, their national security and their standing among the comity of nations. The ongoing campaign for the presidency has opened the bare conflagration of misuse of national institutions by the incumbent regime towards obtaining re-election. It is the case of this article that national institutions like the Army and Intelligence Agencies are not immune from corruption and regression as their leaderships are open to influence. The leadership may be connected in an interlocking network of powerful interests whose greed and desire respects no ambiguities, disrespects (rule of) laws and disrespects due process.

Context is Everything

Nigeria is preparing for presidential and other elections in February 2015 and of all the parties’ candidates, 2 stand above the rest. The incumbent president, Dr Goodluck Jonathan, for the ruling party (PDP); and the former military head of state, General Muhammadu Buhari for APC are locked in electoral battle. Apparently both candidates have tasted power at the highest level and desire to taste it again. Nigeria’s election tradition is penchant with challenges that upset electorate vote on election days.

As a process, it is work-in-progress for a number of reasons including but not limited to malignant mindset of the elite to concentrate power. The implication touches on every aspect of life with spatial distribution of uneven development, uneven distribution of resources and uneven distribution of opportunities.  What obtains is massive abuse of every tier of governance by elected and selected leaders irrespective of their party allegiance, ethnic nationality, level of educational attainment and institutional background.

So there is desperate pursuit of power in a country with massive natural resources reserves. For the elite the country is a meal ticket and political power is the key.

(Se) Election Victory by Any Means

Running for political office is not for the faint-hearted. Political campaigns can be likened to war not according to the Theories of Clausewitz, rather is Guerilla war to be specific because electoral rules are defied, preponderance of questionable elections strategies and deployment of asymmetrical tactics/theories of Sun Tzu/Mao/Che Guevara. Desperation plays an important part in motivating and driving candidates especially those of incumbent/ruling parties.

The incumbent president, Dr Goodluck Jonathan, is a candidate for re-elections with satisfaction deficit and confidence deficit of his records in government. A classic example is the impairment of the country’s territorial integrity by Boko Haram under his watch as Commander-in-Chief including massive loss of lives and property. There are other yawning gaps between his first pre-presidency promises and the actual outcomes. On security, economy, employment, opportunities, infrastructure, rule of law, health and education; performance is struggling, is regressive in itself and as holdover from immediate past administrations. On these and other accounts, PDP is rallying its candidate to obtain re-election by any means necessary.

Apparent awareness of the electorate and increasing vigilance of the electorate/voting process seem to have impacted strongly on PDP to deploying desperate measures. In the absence of rigorous planning and robust manifesto in addition to poor performance in government; personal and weak attacks on the opposite candidate is the main plank of PDP presidential campaign. Issue-based campaign is discredited!

Desperation Incorporated - Unfortunate Tools of Abuse

The first salvo of the government against opposition is the involvement of Department of State Security (DSS), an intelligence agency, dedicated to among others covert intelligence activities, to issue warnings in public to other political parties and their apparatchiks. This event took place as media briefing. It is unprecedented for intelligence agencies to be overtly involved in elections against the police force and other agencies with appropriate authorities. It is an expression of deep dereliction of duty and abuse of process. For an administration in power to misplace priorities to the extent of involving intelligence agencies in overt activities is disturbing.

What strikes potently is the near-absence of concern in the media or the publics regarding this abuse of process and abuse of authority!

The big adventure of this abuse of authority showed the extent the incumbent president and his campaign team overreached their hands. In the bid to damage the opponent in the person of General Muhammadu Buhari, a former head of state, misinformation was inserted in the media on his ‘questionable’ qualification based on education attainment.

In response the General informed the public and electorate that his certificates and credentials are in the possession/archives of Nigerian Army which he served for over 30 years. Then everything broke loose. Nigeria Army, already suffering from credibility deficit, projected poor leadership and regressive attitude professionalism. Nigerian Army spokesperson concurred with media misinformation of course aligning with PDP campaign objectives. (Please the pictured uniformed personnel is an air-force officer contrary to the caption). Does it mean that General Buhari or Nigeria Army lied? Both cannot lie at the same time? What has Nigerian Army to gain from discrediting its own, a former general and a former head of state?

Evidently Nigerian Army confirmed its discredit, regressive and immorality in the public space. It confirmed its unfitness for purpose, infection with malfeasance and questionable leadership. This is contrary to a quote on the Nigerian Army’s mission statement web page reading thus, ''If you build an Army of 100 Lions & their Leader is a Dog, in any fight, the Lions will die like a Dog, but if you build an Army of 100 Dogs & their Leader is a Lion, all Dogs will fight like a Lion''. (The spelling errors on the original are of Nigerian Army). In these contradictory actions Nigerian Army projected distrust, corruption, confidence deficit and shame on the country. This is a serious damage to the country and her image for years to come. This is non-trivial, reprehensible and humiliating.

The Real Scoop

For sections of the country, Nigerian Army is contextualised as one of the last bastions of remaining positive elements of the polity, a positive agent of dedication, an unbiased arbiter of command and principled executor of law. Sadly this is a false presentation and rather a walk of shame. This realisation is important as it exposes the depth of corrosion, abuse, malfeasance and regression in Nigeria’s institutions. 

Ideally Nigerian Army represents a member in the highest echelons of probity, integrity, excellence and honour. In reality, the observed is far from the ideal. This is the truth the electorate must absorb and possess as catalyst towards reforming Nigeria in the short, medium and long terms regardless of 2015 presidential election outcome. Those who exposed the Army and Intelligence agencies to these humiliations desire further scrutiny before voting in the coming elections.

Contradictions of Geostrategy in a Densely Networked World

It is a known fact and policy that the main plank of United States geostrategy against China is containment. It is called Asian Pivot but what does it mean? How is it perceived by ordinary person on the various national streets? Does it imply that United States will hold China at the throat including threatening her strategic interests across the world until Beijing begs for forgiveness or admits inferiority? Does it mean that China is too dependent on and cannot do without United States?

Evidence suggest something different. US geostrategy of China containment is designed and implemented based on many assumptions/variables. The main variable of implementation is through projection of hard (military) power. How it works is difficult to confirm. How the impact is measured is open to various interests and the nature of their interests/motivations. Another option is influencing China's neighbours but US is economically weak to pull it off in the short and long terms.

Since 1972 Nixon-Mao Summit, relationship between the 2 countries has been growing by leaps and bounds albeit very complex nevertheless they need each other. This is the realpolitik! US also committed to non-aggression pact not to invade China. US 1% realised that Chinese population is a huge market to be tapped in the long term. Many strategies emerged including investing in China for greater returns, another is through dumping of consumer and high end goods on the Chinese markets. 

US de-linking of the dollar from gold and the strategic master-stroke of protecting Saudi Arabia in return for Riyadh (OPEC) sale of crude oil only in US dollars and also Riyadh's investment of profit in US banks flooded US economy with cheap capital. This is an important footnote in understanding and appreciating US engagement with China over time from a geoeconomic point of view. Peter Gowan's The Global Gamble Washington's Faustian Bid for World Dominance offers a comprehensive treatment.

A simple fact is that governments are to an extent an instrument for advancing 1%'s interest, a tool of wealth accumulation by any means necessary including perpetual conflicts. Hence the geopolitics of de-industrialisation and enthronement of capital pursued by Reagan regime which implied hollowing out industrial heartlands and relocation of US based industries to China which has cheaper operating costs. Of course initial profits and later manufactured products will be flooded on US market via entities like Walmart. Another impact is that production and manufacturing of basic goods in the US market will be prohibitive, hurting domestic producers and eliminating jobs in millions. 1% are the winners!

If US attempt to contain China via Asia Pivot while Chinese consumer products dominate US market that it is difficult to find a US made consumer product, how then should geopolitical power projection of both capitals be defined? It becomes the case that geopolitics and geostrategy are complex beasts with no clear realistic presentation between potent powers. Mind you China purchased nearly a trillion dollars worth of US Treasury Bills which can be disposed at Beijing's convenience in principle. Rather these policies and assumptions are loaded with some unreconcilable contradictions. 

In the face of interlocking and networked interests between the countries, observers and analysts must admit that the era of zero-sum game of superiority/inferiority is defunct. Clear superiority/inferiority barometer is not only obsolete rather complex relationships of geopolitics can be viewed from co-dependency perspective of a network connections, its hubs and clusters. As networks cannot be totally destroyed but rather weakened. (US) Geopolitics and geostrategy policy makers must admit that total dominance of one power on another power is impractical in the 21st century and beyond.  

This is best captured in the video below through its complex and contradictory interactions between both countries and their peoples from the strategic to the individual levels. Ordinarily the video is harmless but the geopolitics/geostrategy nuggets and footprints are inevitable to perceive.

Happy Viewing! (Video may not open)

Top Stories of 2014 by The Global African via TELESUR

Media power can be appropriated by the oppressed to articulate and disseminate their views, voices and narratives. Presenting impossibility of (alternative) options is a defeatist summary of a zero sum game mentality.

The video below is an excellent example of nuanced presentation/discussion by eminent minds of a number of talking points of Africa in 2014. Happy Viewing!

Delusion through European Terrorism and Weak Political Class

On the ropes of economic weakness with no end in sight, on the altar of austerity were no alternatives are countenanced!

It is not freedom of speech or any type of freedom that is at stake rather the common peoples of Europe are under severe threat of annihilation by their interlocking network of elite who remain impervious and oblivious to their declining economic degradation and insecure social plights. Europeans want cheap food and accessible future not imposed threats from their leaders.

Sadly one wonders how long the common peoples of Europe will continue deceiving themselves with obnoxious self-validation laced in regressive results and poor outcomes as the sole evidence. This is what naturally comes after failure, colossal failure of austerity!

When you imagine the person of Mr Nicolas Sarkozy blabbing about ‘civilisation’ and you ask what happened to his masterpiece, Libya? Look at France; look at President Hollande and think of General De Gaulle! What you confront is a tragedy, colossal tragedy of the French! On every verifiable indicator arrows are unstoppably down. The same arrows face down for the rest of Europe in her capitals, a continent of sorrows!

Less than 3 decades after the demise of communism, Europe is haunted by a spectre of regression, imposition of fear as the main tool of statecraft and full-spectrum domination of the powerful master class/elite. The puerile European elite approve, pay for and sponsor insurgents/terrorists in foreign lands where annihilation of the innocent is welcomed as disinterested normality forgetting that the world is round and not flat. The so-called foreign insurgents/terrorists are channelled and tracked back to Europe to wreck guided havoc later presented as error in intelligence. Buy it and you are stuck to the ground! Remember Operation Gladio!

With sophisticated misinformation/disinformation machines bleating in advance by fusion of State and Media, European commons is softened up to the point that drug addiction seems more palatable. The commons refuse to wake up from ontological sleep and sleep infection will never leave them as a collective. They think that power will never leave the powerful elite or can be modified to refocus elite attention on ‘national interest’ in the name of sustaining the dying embers of democracy which equals dispossession of dignity & mangling of humanity by the same powerful elite.

What has Europe got to show tomorrow without immediately reversing back into the doldrums of the long centuries of industrial destructions cum violent past? Tottering like drunks on parchment of dead letter treaties scrambled as interludes or interregnum of bewildered continuum of negatives? Like the auctioneer with the bell, Europe is going without the common peoples paying the least of attention.

European elite now ride on the back of supine commons in reversal to a labyrinth of darkness loaded with profoundly despiritualised demotion as the roughage of ahistoricity, even the murder of history. Where life no longer motivates even in its primordial dimension, only the brutal annihilation of its ontology is the prized objective of a morally reprehensible leadership and followership respectively.

European leadership and followership must scruff their necks toward assimilating the rich meanings of this statement written on ancient African temples that read thus; An unexamined life is not worth living!

Complexity & Shallowness of Crude Oil Prices Depression and Nigeria’s Questionable Position

OPEC Member States (Losers in the Saudi Arabia Geopolitical Stunt)

Introduction

The last few weeks opened the way for short-term strategy of crude oil price depression by Oil Producing & Exporting Countries (OPEC). A number of points are thrown around in the Anglo media and other outlets for justifications or pseudo-reasons without much traction. For Nigeria, a country with complex relationships with resource management and wealth maintenance there seem to be absence of debate on the subject. This article attempts to review the issues attributed to this development and explore plausibility of short-term knee-jerk reaction turning into long-term patterns.

Crude Oil Economy 101.

OPEC provides 80% of daily crude oil production (30 mb/d) and Saudi Arabia supplies the highest quota of nearly 10 mb/d. In the currently climate there is a violation in overproduction of crude oil by 2mb/d increasing Saudi Arabia’s output to 12 mb/d hence supply is greater than demand which means if other variables are considered price starts falling over time. Saudi Arabia is in clear violation of OPEC quota allocation ceiling set in December 2011, a serious subject condoned by many including OPEC member-states. Above all crude oil has different types from light sweet Bonny to heavy crude. Now like all things under the sun, human beings seem to be prone to self-destruction with amnesia in view of the fact that what goes up surely goes down. This is the end of the simple branch of a complicate equation. Remember the crude oil price collapse by over 70% in the 1980s! See today's price here and 2nd half of 2014 pattern of price drop below.

OPEC 2014 Q3 - Q4 Weekly Crude Oil Price Pattern

Pseudo-Reasons and Justifications

An elderly grandmaster announced that the current crude oil price depression is motivated by geopolitics. Other expert advice is unnecessary on this point however there is a serious riot of talking heads and arm-chair analysts/hollow experts who string all sorts of constructs and justifications for Saudi Arabia’s move on the matter. Now let us read deeper into the crystal ball in points below.  

• Riyadh is making a geopolitical move against Iran which circumstantially aligns with Washington DC short-term interest to humiliate Russia and Venezuela.  If there is any merit in the above assertion, it is the immediacy of its attraction to short-term memory experts and lazy adherents of history. Deeper probing of the position suggests questionable conclusion that currently dominate Western media including particularly Aljazeera.

• While US has deployed and implemented flawed geopolitical strategy of containment on Moscow, attributing the crude oil depression as part of the package is a stretch. While Russian establishment acknowledge the attack on its economic system as manipulation, President Putin stated that acceleration of Russia’s economic problems includes foreign destabilisation and internal mismanagement factors. It is also a fact that crude oil export account for less than 53% Russian economy receipts. With this global picture Russia possess a robust economy with solid structure for further expansion for a country that turned to market economy few decades ago. Meanwhile conclusion that negative impact of Russian economy will be isolated and localised is myopic. Geopolitical attacks generate geopolitical outcomes.

• If there is a strategic or fundamental problem with Russian economy it is the total alignment or underpinning of the economy on the US dollar. Until Moscow addresses this national security problem, then her economy will be open to compromise and foreign manipulation. National economy is the biggest asset of a country followed by its population and tying strategic assets to a foreign interest is suicidal. Establishment and non-establishment Russians know this position very well. Therefore the idea that Saudi Arabia specifically or circumstantially targets Russia is questionable, shallow and hollow. Even if this is stretched into the future on its geopolitical merit, Moscow is now critical on the resolution of many complex problems on Riyadh’s backyard from including but not limited to Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Palestine.

• While Iran is a proxy for Riyadh’s enmity it is far-fetched for this short-term policy to be effective for Riyadh for a number of reasons. Tehran’s position as the main regional power in consolidated while Riyadh’s influence is either marginalising or its remit is spatially coterminous with conflagration. The so-called Sunni geographies are dominated by political and economic instability with no resolution in sight. On another level, Tehran has been under sanctions for more than 3 decades with successful geopolitical power projection around and beyond the Persian Gulf.  Domestic management of Iranian economy has serious gaps in its ability to accrue, manage and maintain crude oil based wealth.

• Iran’s 8+ years experience of war with Iraq cannot be replicated by few drops in the price of crude oil rather Riyadh and Tehran need each other towards resolution of teething problems in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria. This position will become complex with a possible US withdrawal from the Middle East. It is also clear and evident that Saudi Arabia is not the most important country for US in the region as King Faisal 1970s reaction expressed without changing Washington DC policy till present.

• Venezuela is not subject to Saudi Arabia’s attack. Venezuela has been experiencing intergenerational inflation since crude oil was discovered in the country with the consequence of bringing much wealth in an erstwhile agricultural economy. This wealth exploded with mismanagement, corruption and massive urbanisation which particularly eliminated the former way of life. Most of the wealth is held by small minority of powerful elite. For a long time Venezuela is high on importation syndrome with insignificant domestic production. The emergence of Commandante Hugo Chavez is in part to redistribute the huge national wealth in favour of the previously poor majority who abandoned the extra-urban areas for Caracas and other cities for at least 2 generations. Inflation in Venezuela is entrenched and difficult to manage, and will remain non-trivial and complex for generations to come.

Riyadh vs United States

It is easy to jump to the conclusion that US allies share the same interests on every policy and strategy. While European politicians are not robustly respectful of their national interests, other US allies have divergent motivations. Western media is mutating with the view that Saudi Arabia is motivated to increase production against potential introduction of shale crude oil/tar sand oil to the world market. There are a number of holes in the argument although one must be careful to identify them. There is no evidence of any convergence of these policies.  Bearing in mind that the current US president is given to compromise as a doctrine it is understandable that his policies do destroy the country’s economic interest. Example is the recent past counter-reaction of Moscow to limit opportunities for MasterCard and Visa in Russia.

First of all, there is no evidence that the current crude oil priced depression is long-term. Riyadh cannot afford it.  By implication shale crude oil/tar sand oil will surely enter the world market regardless of dropping levels of US imports from Saudi Arabia. It will be foolhardy for the White House and the State Department to put their imprimaturs on this preposterous initiative. The problem is at what price will $70+ cost of production US shale crude oil be sold profitably? If we bear in mind that US president is in his last term of office he can afford to slight some of his Wall Street constituencies including the crude oil industry.

Nevertheless the short-term geopolitical gain of Saudi Arabia will start biting soon for reasons including imminent problem of succession of the King, bubbling social problems, limited foreign reserves, potential return of religious combatants from conflicts in Iran/Syria and reconfiguration of the region.  Each of the issues mentioned require huge resources to maintain and sustain. The rosy picture painted of Riyadh by Western media lack robust foundation in full knowledge that crude oil prices depression is unsustainable even in the short-term. Riyadh cannot afford to jump from one major conflict with geopolitical implication to another one with geopolitical implication within a short space of time.

How much supposed losses to oil company will be calculated or substantiated remains as mysterious and crude oil price depression. Time is the only variable of importance even it must be admitted that either by design or conspiracy, oil companies seem to be vanished from the debate radar.

The danger impacting shale crude oil producer in the US is potent. Similar experience can be extrapolated to the European economy with the difference that it possesses a betrayed political class. For an economy hardwired to crude oil, the consequences in USA will be testing. Consumers will be eyeing downward move of fuel pump prices anticipating lowering prices. Huge loans/credits were drawn & invested to make the industry with wild expectation of subsequent profit. In the current climate, those investments in the US are frozen and thousands of workers will be laid off, bankruptcies filed and many banks will call back loans which mean repossession of toxic assets. Many states invested in shale production and short-term negative outcome will turn into political upheavals.  To some extent US politicians will make (geo) political capital against Riyadh on the basis of defending their national interest.

Beneficiaries of Short-Term Myopia

The narrative in Western media has been dictated by oil producers naturally anticipating profit for their products. However what is apparent in this narrative is the absence of unity among crude oil (OPEC & non-OPEC) producers and as Russia rightly pointed out, that OPEC has lost her political initiative. Along the same line OPEC is facing new realities as an organisation and a geopolitical entity. Be that as it were the voice of oil importers and non-oil producers is absent and dismissing. It is difficult to capture their narratives in the Western media unless their national media are individually reviewed.

Nevertheless the main countries benefiting from the short-term crude oil price depression include Brazil, Turkey, China, India and Japan. These countries and other resource-poor countries run huge current account bills in crude oil imports at high prices and in return run various levels of inflation in their domestic economies.  These are the scions of the emerging economies with almost 50% of global population. It is a welcome outcome for many countries whose development is hamstrung by huge cost of energy. Interestingly these mentioned countries have in the last few months and years cooled relations with Washington DC with accelerated interactions with Moscow except Japan.

If consideration is given to the future direction of global geopolitics and global economy, it is safe to confirm that these countries partly make up BRICS, constitute countries with impressive economic growth rates and possesses the largest portfolios of investment fund targeting opportunities around the world.

Now Then Nigeria

Monitoring Nigerian media in the last few weeks reveals total dismissal of the issue and limitation of debate. In a period drifting towards another national (s)election, the subject is best placed as an important element to explore stewardship of the current national and state leaderships. Now there is no suggestion that the current crude oil price depression has anything to do with current economic problems. Nigeria’s problems have nothing to do with crude oil prices, rather everything to do with 1970s Gowon Syndrome i.e. ontological disposition to waste accrued national wealth and corruption of huge resources.

Nigeria is a weak client of United States and the current leadership and those in the past except General Murtala Muhammed and General Muhammadu Buhari respectively, have toed lines assigned them by underlines of US State Department. In association to this development, comments by the Finance Minister, Dr Okonjo-Iwuala that more borrowing from foreign lenders can only be construed as questionable. After being in office for nearly a decade, there is no evidence of sustainably managed savings and the first order of cushioning new economic problem is returning to foreign lender; World Bank and IMF. As a former employee of World Bank, one wonders where her allegiance lies; Nigeria or World Bank?

Despite the fact that the current crude oil price depression is not Nigeria’s problem and equally acknowledging that the mains problems are the twin devils of domestic corruption and mismanagement; a number of information attributed to Nigeria demands exploration. Only Saudi Arabia can explain her reasons for deploying the crude oil weapon when it did. Some OPEC members have done excellently well with their resource and accrued wealth, Nigeria is not one of them.

It is also a fact that since shale crude oil became a reality in the United States, US importation of light crude oil from Nigeria has diminished which implicitly justifies reviewing Abuja’s relevance to Washington DC and vice versa. Nigeria is not short of customers as India has taken over as the biggest importer of her crude oil. China is another major importer. Nigeria’s geopolitical significance in crude oil is attributed to the high quality of its light sweet (Bonny) with very low sulphur content. This product is easy and cost-effective to refine in dedicated refineries which currently exclude all refineries in Nigeria. Leaders, elite and policy makers concluded that domestic refining is anathema so it is better to import petroleum products even from Senegal that in turn purchased the base crude oil from Nigeria. You can read the national security implication!

A Venezuelan analyst attributed a reason for the sudden crude oil price depression to security and protection of huge Asian markets share by Saudi Arabia and Nigeria offering discounts as a result of shrinking imports of light crude oil by United States. Saudi Arabia can afford such short-term instrument for a strategic deal with India, China and Japan because it possesses huge foreign reserves which are tied to the US dollar with the 1976 agreement. The stipulation is that all Saudi Arabia crude (OPEC) oil be sold in US dollars and all Saudi receipts will be reinvested in the United States economy (banks & Federal Reserve Bank). Mind you US Federal Reserve Bank masquerading as central banks is a private entity. In return United States will take care of Saudi Arabia’s security concerns.  What happens when US no longer needs Saudi oil?

For Nigeria leaders to even move in this direction is worrying because fossil fuel is a limited resource. It means that crude oil must be sold at any cost to retain production. The extra capacity of 2 mb/d overproduced by Saudi Arabia could have been distributed by OPEC member rather than nodding in agreement to a policy of one member hurting the rest of the cartel. On the other hand it is apparent that Nigeria lack capacity to store extracted crude oil against immediate sale/export at any price. As new economies expand and grow, demand for crude oil will increase of which shale crude oil/tar sand oil will be part of the mix.

Market security for a country with one of the best products in the world is determined by specific demand, criteria of choice and production capacity of producing country.  Countries do not just swing and change crude oil type overnight and building new infrastructures/refining capacities to accommodate the swing. This was the main reason US sanction on Iranian crude oil collapsed on implementation as the Asian customers like China, India, South Korea and Japan couldn't be compelled to reverse a hugely expensive turnaround. Even United States was indirectly importing Iranian refined products for her occupation project of Afghanistan.

Nigeria is ill-prepared for such draconian and expensive move. There is little or no foreign reserve left. There are no markets lost for her precious product in the short and long-terms considering that new commercially viable crude oil field discoveries are diminishing with time. Therefore it is against the national interest for such policy to be deployed if there is any veracity to it.

In a normal economy it will be politically dangerous to project such policy with national elections around the corner because the ruling party is potentially exposing itself to massive defeat. It is not an election winner to increase more pain on the electorate. Of course Nigeria is more complicated and complex than the aforementioned considerations.  Still Nigerians are concerned about the state of already accrued wealth from crude oil over years which they have not benefited from.

Conclusion

The current crude oil price depression is a short-term geopolitical strategy deployed by Saudi Arabia to pursue her national interest objectives. Consultations with other capitals are considered at best improbable and at worst tepid. This policy is not sustainable in the long-term, is diversionary and divisive. Above all the policy calls into question the raison d’être of OPEC at a critical time in global geopolitics. There are winners and losers and most of the winners are not sworn enemies of Russia. Nigeria’s position remains unclear and the leadership response is questionable both in context and quality. Only time will tell how the current crisis will be resolved but whenever it is, OPEC’s geopolitical footprint will be seriously reconfigured. Such reconfiguration will equip it if possible for the next generation. 

Catastrophic Collapse of US Geopolitical Project/Offensive (against Russia)

Introduction

The last few years saw the ascendancy of post-cold war United State foreign policy and geopolitical projects against many countries. The apex of this project has materialised as full-spectrum onslaught against Russia. The purpose of this attack by any means necessary is to eliminate Moscow as a potent rival or competitor, and only to exist thereafter as a weak and subservient state beholding to Washington DC interest. Further examples are presented summarising how this questionable geopolitical policy loaded with vivid contradictions and geostrategic initiatives failed spectacularly. 

Violence-Colour Revolution Incorporated

United States came out of the cold war as one ‘winner’, ushered in the ‘end of history’ but apparently refused to acknowledge history. The hubristic revision of the known world engineered in the Washington DC elite proclivity for global full-spectrum dominance by force of arms. One of the most glaring pointers of US foreign policy development is that most of the recent hacks never had military or combat experience which makes for their confused understanding of violence-oriented/’humanitarian’ initiatives.

Refusal to acknowledge Moscow’s sphere of influence which has been in place for many centuries by United States naturally pointed to disastrous outcomes. The assumption that post-Soviet apparent Russian weakness will last for a long time is another dangerous abuse of data/history. The support for ‘revolutions’ in Georgia and Ukraine by Washington DC was contrasted by robust resistance and reversal by Moscow. Evidently Georgia came out worse with a resultant dismemberment in Abkhazia and South Ossetia secessions. 

These 2 pieces of real estate now serve as buffer space on the south eastern underbelly of Russia. Moscow can afford to move strategic weapon systems into these new territories hence increasing pressure on European security profile. Why didn't Washington DC anticipate such response from Moscow? Russia is a world (nuclear) power and has been around for a long time.

Now there is strategic windfall for Russia to deploy nuclear weapons in Crimea which seats on the southern flank of Europe. This is a prospect which is very dangerous for sanction-protagonists because such an outcome will apparently nullify Turkish NATO position which is increasingly becoming strained. This development will be a security checkmate on Europe with Russia's strategic fault line running from Kaliningrad to Crimea with linear extension south-eastward connecting Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Such an outcome will be an interesting development and it may not have come in the geopolitical calculations of sanction enthusiasts. Russia effectively becomes the coast-to-coast doorkeeper of Eastern Europe! Call it a Nuclear Curtain! See Map below.

Potential Russia's Nuclear Curtain

The encouragement of rebellion in Chechnya is another geopolitical product that failed to fly. Being a strategic hub for Russia gas transmission and in proximity with conflagrant zones from Arab world to Afghanistan, war in Chechnya was instigated against a weak Russia. Apparently the strategy failed because of poor understanding of history and opaque management of Chechnya war interlocutors. Did interlocutors want full independence from Russia or internal independence within Russia? Are they hustlers and drug traffickers or genuine fighters for self-determination? The war ended when the ex-President Boris Yeltsin ended his grip on Kremlin.

Sanctionitis

If anyone or country is suffering from sanction, the disease can be given a name. United States chose to advance a complicated weapon with no clear direction and devoid of full proof against herself (the aggressor) and her allies. The list of countries United States put under strenuous economic sanctions for decades range from Cuba, Iran and North Korea. None of these countries gave in to US war 'by other means'. Sanction is a weapon that is closed from close examination and most analysts in the West accept its potency at face value. Regardless of geography and neighbourhood, nevertheless economic sanctions fail at their implementation by legitimising its target. President Obama confirmed this position few weeks ago on his review of policy on Cuba after 50 years of failure.

One of the complexities of economic sanctions is the role of powerful US interests advancing it as part of their domestic political dalliance and wealth accumulation strategy. In a world that is increasingly connected through powerful random and clustered networks, all the networks cannot be closed or deleted at the same time. Internal interests of the United States do not always align with foreign interests except in Europe.

The second casualty of economic sanction is the de-legitimisation of the imposing country, her trade, her products and her public diplomacy by the sanctioned country. US companies hurt from lost trade and lost profit potentials hence driving these countries towards self-sufficiency in select productive and development sectors. Cuba is not trivial in education, counter-intelligence & medicine, Iran is powerful as a regional power and North Korea is no pushover at least in military nuclear technology. Now placing Russia under economic sanction is the most regressive geopolitical policy that any foreign ministry/minister can authorise. 

This is a very large country economically and geographically. It is mostly interconnected as hubs and connectors with many global economic & geopolitical networks. Apparently this country possessing specialised intergenerational experience in reversing invaders cannot be reduced by mere manipulation of numbers or withholding purchases of relevant good for a few days, weeks and months. Russia’s defensive strategy is classic and has been replicated in various aspect of her cultural and public life.

Evidently those who placed the sanctions with various tools are hurting more than the target. Europe is in a midst of catastrophic economic & political problems with none of her leaders sophisticated enough and forward-looking enough to appreciate the inter-linkage of interests and halt the sanctions. EU citizens are replaced by austerity. Somehow Russia’s ability to retaliate was either dismissed or was not even considered. What is the net result? Russia remains standing, closed some of her markets to sanction enthusiasts and will continue to stand despite plans to dismantle and humiliate her.

Rouble is devalued which is good news for Russia producers and exporters. Oil price is going down and US shale oil producers are in a pickle and the Western media is plastered with pretended longevity of Saudi Arabia’s resolve forgetting that Riyadh is a winner. United States is a big loser.

Geopolitical Isolation

A recent listener/reader of Western media will confront the word ‘isolation’ numerous times whenever Russia is mentioned. This is a fig leaf for unaccounted failed policy. When geopolitical analysts planning to hit Russia big time marshalled their variables, they must have considered potential blow-back. US isolation strategy against Russia has failed spectacularly.

Moscow and Beijing have got closer without becoming friendlier or increasing their enmity. On many recent geopolitical and international affairs, both capitals deliver synchronised or coordinated positions. India, South American countries, Asian countries and the BRICS countries didn't stop trading with Moscow. Moscow’s role is now inevitable in the resolution of any conflict in the world. Apparently United States is seemingly isolated except for subservient Europe swimming in the bubble of self-validation devoid of measurable benefits. European leaders deliberately scuttled the South Stream oil pipeline and now Moscow perfectly exploited EU rift with Ankara and boosted Turkey’s position. A payback for EU fuss over Ankara membership application!

It is even messier with United States because the current Syrian civil war was initiated for Ankara on Washington DC advice with the understanding that the job will finished and new compliant faces will occupy Damascus. Reversing that understanding without consultation by Washington DC is the reason for apparent Ankara’s intransigence and zeal for every slimmer of victory against Damascus from setting up Kobani no-fly-zone to manufacturing ‘moderate’ rebels and sponsoring endless round of ‘Friends of Syria’ summit.

De-Dollarisation

Another outcome of economic sanction is reduction in the utility of the sanction currency by the sanctioned country, in this case, US dollars. With US dollar as a global reserve currency, and in addition to other vibrant and emerging economies on the rise this means a diversity of products and access. A sanctioned country with physical geographical connections with other countries can always get round the ‘firewall’ easily by engaging in international trade with other countries directly or via proxies with bilateral payment deals, paying for products in gold and or dealing in a basket of currencies. Products can be denominated in national currencies especially when the global reserve currency is overvalued and is inimical to national interest of the sanctioned country.

Russia seems to have started reaping the harvest of contrary strategic opportunities of having her economy tied to the US dollar. First of all the doors of the economic was shut for US credit card companies and domestic alternatives are advanced. Secondly, the threat of compromise on the erstwhile international payment system (SWIFT) has led to the development and deployment of a national payment system.

Beyond that Russia can call a payment moratorium of foreign debt repayments which will hit first European banks very hard in a time of austerity. It is also evident that 90% of nuclear fuel for US nuclear industry is supplied by Russia which mainstream media will not elaborate on. While US dollar will continue to reign supreme the proportion of its utility in international trade is diminishing as a result of a self-defeating policy of economic sanction against a world power.

Conclusion

While opinion is divided on Russia’s readiness and response including linkage with US dollar economy, what is overtly clear is that US hostile bid to isolate and diminish Moscow with various tools of economic warfare and misinformation have failed not because they were poorly implemented but due to their conceptual error ab initio or rather myopic view of a reconfiguring geopolitical landscape. This regressive view include lazy attitude towards history by decision makers in Washington DC. The idea that what proved easy in Grenada, Libya, Iraq, Panama and Diego Garcia can be propagated successfully on Russia with high level of positive outcome is preposterous and regressive. 

Nigeria’s National Security and Phases of Rebelo-‘Terrorism’

Nigeria Territory including Continental Shelves

Introduction

Nigeria State since its inception as a trading product has never being problem-free. Not necessarily one-week one-trouble! Nevertheless in terms of internal security, uncertainty is the watch-word. However in the age of ‘war-against-terrorism’ whatever it means, the country is faced with one the most gruesome episodes in her history. In view of this development the article attempts to explore ongoing Boko Haram debacle and reconstruct solution narrative considering both geopolitical designs and complexity of internal forces.

Battle of Contexts

Security in Nigeria is most maximised in the private space which is ubiquitously expressed in the prison-like fences crowned with electrified barbed wire. In the front is usually massive steel gate, gate house with an Hausa or professional security operative. Differentiation reflects value of location and income of occupant even in many villages. The spatial dimension seem slightly modified with minor difference. Those on low incomes combine survival budget with security initiative if possible.

In contrast the public space offers interesting investment in security. State/Federal buildings offer arrangements ranging from total exposure to fortified Dodan Barrack-style presentation around governors’ offices and the Presidential Palace. Heavyweight Traditional Rulers share in the more secure spaces. Banks and other business places have a variety of arrangements which can be appreciated within the context of their raison d’etre. Roads, ports, stadia, border points, and armed forces installation share something in common.

They are not in themselves secure as suggested rather in that they are to all intents and purpose militarised and regimented by preponderance/dominance by members of various armed forces even in under civilian administrations. These state assets are now arrogated to the armed forces in defiance of constitutional definitions and the commons have adjusted to this form of asset colonisation by armed forces institutions. It is now a norm.

Civilian and Military Biases

After gaining independence from United Kingdom without clear understanding of geopolitical designs on it, Nigerian leadership lurched towards a domestic policy confusion and foreign policy ‘moderate’ status setting the course for a drifting ship of state. The binary existential struggle of leadership between the civilian and the military has marked the country. When it comes to national security both leaderships failed miserably over time due to the myopic perception that refuses to elevate clear national interest. The military leadership always usurp power claiming corruption while the civilian are (s) elected to power claiming to tackle corruption while perpetuating it. Between these groups citizens see through the rhetoric clearly and more so confirm that the military cannot appropriate sanity from corruption creation and corruption contamination.

Domestic Instability

Various domestic conflicts in Nigeria have come and gone and are ongoing with massive fatalities without serious government response including successful legal redress. Some of the conflicts are repeat performances and irrespective of the underlying causes; economic, social, resources and religion, the main feature is the government inability to invest truly in the fundamental national project and in transparent resolution. Even the military have played direct/indirect roles in creating conflicts in peace time turning into instrument of peace disruption in many communities across the land.

No serious country can advance with careless attitude towards internal discontent & national security. The preponderance of the leadership and elite to dismiss onset of social instability, internal conflicts or threats against national security is suffocating. Issues that could have been avoided are initially manipulated for regressive economic interest and contraction of national interest. The ongoing Boko Haram conflict started in the usual pattern as local violence. The elite deposited confidence on the myopic & hollow religious template of Muslim-Christian despite its obvious flaws.

The problematic on the religious argument suggest a positive justification, but why should there be justification for violence and murder? Such justification is a mask for failure of leadership of the political and religious levels. Extending the condemnation is the obvious complexity in victim identification. If those who latently support murder and violence by non-state actors stop briefly, then who are the victims beyond their religious identity? Are Christians non-indigenes and non-citizens of their states? Does their ethnic nationality override their local government/state citizenship? Does Christian indigenes/citizens forfeit their national rights in the face of unprovoked violence?

If a citizen of Borno State of Ijaw nationality and of Christian persuasion has his/her home in the state for more than a generation, doesn’t he/she and his/her family deserve to be protected by the same state? Does he/she run off to Bayelsa/Rivers State, his/her genetic origin for assistance and will the state legitimately respond to his/her emergency? These questions expose a weakness that it is potent in Nigeria, that is the question of citizenship/residency remains a black box.

Beyond the above questions and fast-forward to the present, Boko Haram has increased in stature from a ragtag hit-and-run group to a formidable fighting force able to hold down territory in Nigeria. Muslims are not excluded from her victims! Boko Haram has presented real evidence indicating that Nigeria State can no longer justify its constitutional mandate of being the sole authority over its territory, islands, airspace and continental shelves. This is a very strong indictment and every citizen must be concerned.

Geopolitics of Instability

Tackling national security problems requires legal instruments and statutory authorities including deployment of national intelligence agencies and their actions need not be presented publicly. It may also require collaboration with other countries including exchange of resources and purchase of necessary equipments. On the basis of tackling issues of national security, the key to maintaining Nigeria’s territory integrity vis-a-vis Boko Haram, national independence and sovereignty are paramount. In the order of priority, democracy and human right are dependencies of the national independence and sovereignty.

Nevertheless it is obvious that Boko Haram is a geopolitical instrument targeted towards the weakening of the country. With a malaise in geopolitical projection for the last 2 decades, Nigeria is poised to be caught on the rearguard by reactionaries including members of her own elite. With influx of weapons, satellite telephones and covert military operatives, Nigeria is now caught in the middle of an existential crisis while citizens are bombarded with misinformation and negative information warfare. The leadership remains confused, uncertain and folded while innocent citizens are murdered, properties/infrastructures destroyed and territories occupied and held by Boko Haram.

Boko Haram Catchment Area of Operation

Now Nigeria has become an exporter of instability to her neighbours by proxy. Boko Haram is now well-resourced (as a mobile force) to conduct activities simultaneously in Nigeria and Cameroun respectively. It takes sophisticated logistics, real-time intelligence including troop movement & asset locations, advanced weapons/equipments and motivated fighters to open various fronts in a theatre. Yaoundé is legitimately placed to complain against Abuja on the use of her territory to destabilise Cameroun. This diplomatic complain will be given greater teeth with the support of a de-imperialising France, the erstwhile colonial master.  Despite peculiar geographical conditions, Chad & Niger must be on high levels of alert since Boko Haram’s catchment area/activity space is coterminous to their territories. See Map 2 above.

This situation presents a tarnished image of Nigeria, the so-called ‘giant of Africa’ who is unfortunately placed in a position of agency of instability and threat to her neighbour’s national security. The absence of decisive leadership, geopolitical leadership inertia, corroding national security delivery mechanism and a disorganised operational strategy has reduced Abuja to international ridicule.  

Conclusion

Without going into many details of national security strategies, Nigeria needs to revise her current strategies of dealing with Boko Haram. This problem must be de-politicised and de-militarised from a strategic decision making viewpoint towards a credible and positive result-oriented operation. It is doubtful that Boko Haram will be defeated on the battlefield considering apparent evidence of its connections to some powerful geopolitical forces. Direct/indirect engaging of these regressive geopolitical relationships by Abuja has the potential for generating positive breakthrough. This will among other things provide a subscript for final burial of colonial narrative and the resurrection of a progressive post-colonial narrative of Nigeria that is independent, sovereign, proud and tall.