Introduction
2020 has brought an early fresh
wine in the almost insipid Nigeria’s political concoction. A deft move from the
Western Region bears the marks of a classical geopolitical response to perceived
encirclement by apparent powerful protagonists. While the move is fresh and
interesting, it invites the strongest insight into its structures and processes
driving it.
History 2.0
To understand this view it is
better to transcend the 36-states structure and settle on the pre-1966 regional
arrangement for improved clarity. Look at the history books and maps again as
they make sense. The pre-1914 map of Nigeria consists of Fulani Empire above Niger-Benue rivers and the nations south of the rivers. This is critical for under-50s.
It is important to stress what
many hollow analysts refuse to admit as a fact. Nigeria is a multinational state
which is uncertain, unstable and unreliable since it emerged from the womb of its
designer. One can safely conclude that most data over time show that Nigeria’s
objective is the paralysis of its nations bar a few favoured ones by violent
means. Nigeria has never appreciated internal cohesion or the admission of the
primacy of her nations as the building blocks towards the emergence of a
Nigerian nation.
Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the first
Premier of the Western Region, laid it
bare when he referred to the Nigerian as a mere geographical expression.
Considering this nuanced geostrategic bluster buttressed on exclusive ethnic
nationalism, Nigeria with all her human and natural resources became a rich
source of ready exploitable wealth as long as it lasted. Other regions were the
competitors.
Mindful of the cartographic manna
that fell from geopolitical heaven with the creation of Mid-Western
Region/Bendel State in 1963, the Yoruba nation consolidated into a favourable
space for unassailable implementation of a calculated ethnic geopolitical agenda
a la Awolowo. This was a credible and realist approach to stem the flow of
idealistic constructions of power in a space devoid of clear purpose and an effective
driver.
The consistency of one nation with
one language, one culture and one dominant collective experience set the stage
for rolling out a grand strategy by a grand master. Western Region shares an international land border with Benin Republic.
Geography doesn’t lie!
For a man who retorted years
later that 24 hours is sufficient in the highest office, his best opportunity
arrived during Nigeria-Biafra War when the intellectually denuded counter-coup
plotters offered Chief Awolowo the ‘presidency’ and the rest is history. Even
Are Afe Babalola has said it on record that Nigeria-Biafra War was fought with
funds from the Western Region, certainly an investment with perpetual dividend
regardless of who is in charge of Lagos/Abuja with untold consequences to the other ethnic nations.
The designs of Chief Awolowo were
given legal imprimatur of the Nigerian State hence the regional advantage of an
exclusive maritime area in the south feeding the landlocked hinterland. This
remained effective regardless of who is the master of Lagos/Abuja. East of the
Niger up to the 8th parallel was condemned to waiting for time until
the final excision of its rich maritime asset (Bakassi Peninsula) to Cameroun
as negotiated under Chief Awolowo. This was the greatest geopolitical error
that was only accounted for by the genetic instability of a state. Still Chief
Awolowo deserve the utmost respect.
Next Move
The potency of Chief Awolowo’s
grand strategy continued to flow with unmatched energy as the comfort of
Western Region security declines in the festering Nigeria. Suffice to admit that the
busiest seaport and airport is in this Region, it has the biggest commercial
space and the highest concentration of physical development and infrastructure.
Free education, free medical care, most universities/teaching hospitals, densest
macadamised road network, busiest international airport, busiest seaport, high
proportion of federal appointments and etc are some of the benefits. Western
Region remains the biggest beneficiary of Nigeria. On this merit fittingly rest
the magnanimous reference of Chief Obafemi Awolowo as the ‘best president
Nigeria never had’ by the Head of State of ex- Biafra.
With such benefits, the post-1999
civilian rule gradually opened new spaces for contest, winning and losing that
has condemned most players with poverty of vision and ignorance of purpose. The
born-to-rule in the Northern Region may not have contemplated an impending challenge.
The Western Region was not untouched by the machinations, alliances and
reconfigurations as demanded by collective strategic interest. Huge changes were
coming despite misleading appearances.
Lion Paws
2020 came with a flash of
rejuvenation of intellectual advancement with the release of the lion, Amotekun
in Yoruba. Amotekun is the regional security architecture launched collectively
by all state governors in the Western Region. This geopolitical posture seem to
have caught the Northern Regional political elite by surprise. The freshness of
the idea is neither toxic nor is it original considering various earlier cheap alternatives
designed for a piece of Nigeria’s cake.
Moving beyond its ethnic national
flavour, it became clear that they have geographical consistency, concentration
of infrastructure, massive commercial advantage and geopolitical disposition. For
the first time Nigeria i.e. the deep state, took notice and panicked. This is
most visible in the Northern Region despite the fact that Western Region is the most
pro-Nigeria. Eastern Nigeria have other fish to fry.
What is attractive is the
solidarity of governors in the region towards addressing a common interest with
a common voice. While evidence suggests that the strategic initiative may be
currently lacking, no sane mind across the Nigeria should deny its geopolitical
potency. The obvious fact of the design is its confederal aroma and
intellectual descendancy from the Aburi Declaration. Lagos/Abuja have vehemently
continued on the path of security centralisation which has increased
militarisation and regimentation of the society. In a sense Nigeria has become
a densely militarised civil space.
Resistance to security apparatus
decentralisation by the centre is vicious and potent. Centralisation of
security apparatus ensures the consolidation of the deep state by the powerful
elite who are the state. Amotekun lays bare the nonsense that governors are the
highest security offers in their territories. Governors’ are legally inferior to commissioners of police in their respective states. Centralised police has the
centre as its sole line manager. Governors cannot remove police checks near
their governor’s residences.
Considering that all indicators
of advancement and growth of Nigeria are negative offers a place for Amotekun to be
rightful appraised. The arguments of insecurity is consistent across the
territory and few ethnic nations are devoid of this existential concern. To deny
that Nigeria is a serious security concern is immoral and inhuman. On this note
Amotekun is justified as an idea, a hypothesis and a construct in reality;
without dismissing its geopolitical potential.
Conclusion
Amotekun is an unclear but
welcome development. It has arrived to remind regional elites and power brokers
that power cannot be contained at least as an idea. Nigeria is very weak and
has little traction among most capitals and chanceries of the world. Her
internal structures and processes have sustained waste, corruption and
illegality. Therefore uncertain regional dynamics cannot be dismissed. One
thing is very clear from the recent geopolitical trend, all powers great and
small are exhausted from the inside rather than from outside as the conditions
favouring external intrusion are internally constructed. It is unclear whether
Amotekun is a call for compatriots to arise or to hail the state. It is very
early but certainly time will tell.
