Taliban Triggers the Onset of US Decline

 Introduction

Sunday 15^th August 2021 was the culmination of a long multi-generational process. Finally Taliban took Kabul without firing a shot and became the master of Afghanistan in a bloodless masterstroke that defied logic and deeply-held western worldview. The closest comparison military annals is 1940’s fall of Paris to the German army, an operation with the imprimatur of Field-Marshall Eric von Manstein. The boldest print of this outcome is the comprehensive defeat of United States, and everything it stood for. This is one of those rare geopolitical events that closes an era while signalling a paradigm shift that opens a new chapter. Where did this outcome come from? How did it emerge when it did? Some of the answers form the basis of light touches of dynamic processes steeped in history, unique indigeneity of justice and collective memories.  

The Spark of Long Durée

Two formidable intellectuals and religio-spiritual revolutionaries widely acknowledged in their homelands but unknown abroad opened the gates that later unleashed pregnant forces against accepted realities in 1979. The Roman Catholic Church was forced to elect a second pope in less than 60 days in the person of Pope John Paul II from Poland. At the time Warsaw was under communist rule as a satellite of USSR. Exiled Ayatollah Khomeini landed in Tehran and became the master of Iran. Opinion in Washington DC and other western capitals paid more attention to his long beards, inability to speak English and unconventional attire. By the way USSR invaded Afghanistan against the advice of its premier Kosygin.

The appearance of these two men at the same period confirmed two ignored facts; that the nation-state failed the goal it set for itself as the god who can solve all citizens problems and that religion has a place and role to play. Simply put, secularisation is limited. The forces unleashed in Tehran were felt first in direct challenge to the US in the taking her citizens hostage and in 1982 when US footprint was eliminated in Lebanon with the suicide bombing of its military barrack in Beirut. Later inducement of Saddam Hussein into an 8-year war with Iran did nothing to blunt Tehran’s ambition rather was rewarded by 2003 US invasion of Iraq which extended her sphere of influence and confirmed her position as the master of the Persian Gulf. Sanctions never deterred Tehran mobilisation and ascendance in the Middle East.

Pope John Paul II understood the injustice of communism first-hand in Poland and became a lighting rod of a constellation of forces that challenged Warsaw and Moscow in an existential struggle with his first papal visit to his homeland. Moscow took notice but drew the wrong conclusions. By the time Secretary Gorbachev started Glasnost and Perestroika, the disease has irreversibly metastasized. When he approved unilateral withdrawal from Afghanistan which Washington DC saw as defeat, Commandante Fidel Castro reminded Moscow to keep faith in the liberation of Southern African liberation among his prescient concerns. Moscow obliged until US backed rebels and their master receded from the scene for Luanda, Pretoria and Windhoek to breath a sigh of relief from 1991.

US pressed her cold war victory in Afghanistan following the collapse of USSR in 1991 in a geostrategic confusion that closed all moderation and opened the door for Taliban 1.0 to make its first foray on Kabul in the 1990s. Middle East petroleum commanded higher premium so Taliban 1.0 had an unopposed run. Besides the Russian Caucasus was burning. Moscow was in decline and hurting. Time waited for the launching of global full-spectrum dominance in the new American century. Twin bombings in Kenya and Tanzania edged in with the usually dismissed collateral damage.

War on Terror Phase

Once the buildings of New York were pulverised into dust, a motive and an offender were identified for hellfire treatment in 2001. Taliban 1.0 was carpet-bombed from power and a two decade-onslaught against innocent Afghanis were unleashed with all the sophisticated weapons, guns, missiles and boots on the ground. Unlimited fund were flowing to military contractors, arms dealers and the US military industrial complex. Afghani casualties where even deemed undignified enough to be counted. They should have asked indigenous peoples of North America and transported African slaves about humanity under an empire.  Afghanistan became a geopolitical bazaar for sharing trillions dollar cake.

Disregarding uniqueness of a people and their hurting collective memory of inter-generational conflicts imposed by foreign powers, US decreed ‘democracy’ of warlords whose government legitimacy were limited to Kabul and extended further only by force of arms. The neighbouring states watched the grand design unfold. Russia initially offered to help only to later realise that the subtext was different. Beijing stood aside and looked on as ferocious offensives were annihilating in two fronts, Iraq and Afghanistan. China accepted the easier option of turning itself into the global factory since US formally de-industrialised offering firms tax cuts to relocate to China for the highest profit from cheapest labour.

After newly 20 years, all Afghanis agreed on a single point. They are tired of conflicts, local and foreign. Even the puppet governments in Kabul knew so much but had no influence on serious change. Tokyo and Berlin are pass masters in those areas. European capitals obliged the only global hegemon after all since 1945, Europeans ceased to be global powers except for periodic reminders and ruffles on the African continent especially in their former colonial stomping grounds.

Death of Civilisation Mission

The arrival of Taliban 2.0 started when they signed a peace programme with US in Doha obviously from a position of strength. It was a clash of worldviews, civilisations and paradigms. It had little to do with religion. Religion in politics is only a vehicle for conveying collective interest and constituencies of unique experience. However in this clash like other clashes, secularised technology-oriented US greatly disdains religious Taliban without asking what and why that makes group resilient, formidable and irrepressible. With so much faith in their sophisticated weapon, precision systems and radar evading fighter jets; bearded non-English irregulars are deemed easy targets for pulverisation from a distance.

United States lost Afghanistan on a number of fronts which will baffle most analysts. The first point is failure to accept history fully in its complexity and non-linearity. Lack of respect of peoples, unique cultures and different collective memory only manifest deeper costly ignorance. The price of dismissing peoples as the Other. Dehumanisation precedes destruction. The lack of inter-communal clashes and inter-ethnic national conflicts is confounding the western mind who betted on post-US conflagration. Taliban 2.0 is non-violent on display while the violent ran by helicopters.

Afghanis trusted Taliban in the conclusion that they possess a common enemy who doesn’t deserve extra blood of their innocent. Suffering builds resilience, patience and hope in a positive setting. Man is more than flesh. Man is equally spirit. Ascetic disposition and discipline in the face of hardship raises the spirit. All the blabbing on democracy, women rights and human rights failed to admit that all casualties from imposed conflict have ignored rights without statute of limitation.

The second point of difference is knowledge. Most parts of the Global South reflect a collective dehumanisation where nothing of their origin, history and indigeneity is deemed worthy. Learning, ideas, theories and even attitudes are fit only when they come from the north. Western universities and English language are the correct symbols of progress. Taliban and Afghanis have added a notch in the restoration and glorification of Global South identities as viable life-giving niches. Indigenous knowledge system drawing from old sources continues to refine and adapt to new realities display the context for successfully engaging and blunting foreign impositions. There is no need for Harvard/MIT MBA for excellent organisation. Indigenous systems are open and do welcome adaptation to emerging realities at lower cost. Collaboration without dismissal of indigenous values is encouraged. How much did US loss and Taliban victory respectively cost?

One would be delusional to think that Taliban are unaware of Clausewitz theories in On War, ignorant of the fine points of Rommel’s North African desert maneuverers or remote from the brilliance of von Manstein exploits on the eastern front prior to the tank battle of Kursk. They settled for asymmetrical engagement and won.

Thirdly, there is a sad and harmful reality. This is the emerging or rather a confirming trend of the successful role of Islamic sensitivities in the confrontation of suffocating imperial impositions and geopolitical hegemonies in the last generation. The sad aspect is the erroneous conclusion that US and her European remora are Christian when they are anything but. One can simply conclude that both United States and Europe are vehemently opposed to Christianity as much as they are opposed to Islam or any religion.

Fourthly, this Taliban defeat of US has finally signalled the limitation of the latter in her global pretensions. While US will continue to be a formidable power, in geopolitical terms, it occupies just a seat at the table like any other state. In a sense US Empire has not only reached its zenith, it has abandoned that zenith in obedience to gravity never to return to it anytime soon probably until military loss on home soil triggers a deeper thinking. In summary US knowledge, technology, systems, capability, worldview and thinking failed woefully.  A lot of conclusion will be drawn in many capitals. Inspirations will not be in short supply either. As for US invincibility or exceptionalism, its place in the archive is secure.

United States has become the third superpower after Britain and USSR to be buried in the graveyard of empires, Afghanistan.

Nnamdi Kanu: Kenya and International Covert Operations

Introduction
Nnamdi Kanu, the leader of Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) was abducted in Kenya between the last week of June 2021 and the first week of July 2021. Abuja confirmed that the abduction took place under her directives citing Interpol as a collaborator. A careful review of Interpol website Red Notices of wanted persons and News of recent arrests fails to mention the abductee. In the meantime Nairobi through its High Commissioner in Abuja has denied any involvement in the case that occurred in its territory. It is not the first time Kenya denies knowledge of international covert operation in her territory.

The article attempts to sketch out Kenya’s role as a state and location of high-profile international covert operation. In addition a review of emerging options in Nigeria is presented.

Outlier Diplomacy
Knowledge in geography and history is essential towards understanding diplomatic, intelligence and geopolitical developments. While states are the smallest units of geopolitical engagements, all the actions occur in fixed locations called cities. Cities have many qualities, values and functions which ebb and flow over time. Some of these functions include favourability to covert intelligence and espionage operations. Examples include Cairo, Florida, London, Athens, Geneva, Brussels, Berlin, Beirut, Dubai, Bangkok, Kabul, Mexico City and Nairobi. All these cities are important intersection of international flow of persons/services regardless of size.

Intelligence and espionage are the stock-in-trade of every state which are conducted overtly and covertly in locations. Extra-territorial footprints define the big and medium powers. The big states play high-stake operations while the small players do what they must. Some of the big players including London may have supplied information/intelligence from sources including infiltrating assets in IPOB to facilitate the operation in Nairobi.

Intelligence and espionage are statecraft tools for enhancing strategic advantage of a state including higher profits, material improvement and resource access. These are not mindless policies implemented by irrational personnel. Kenya has evolved in this role in the last 4 decades with variable levels of successes and losses. Our attention will be concentrated on just two which consolidated her pedigree as a favourable operator in the dark arts of international covert operations.  

Entebbe via Nairobi
In 1976 an Air France passenger aircraft was hijacked by pro-Palestinian groups fighting for the liberation of Palestine. Most of the passengers on board were Israelis. The aircraft finally landed in Entebbe, Uganda during the administration of Field Marshall Idi Amin. Naturally the hijackers got media attention and pressed their demands. Israel reviewed her options and favoured attack-and-rescue operations. There were major problems. 

One was diplomatic and the other geography. After 1973 Arab-Israeli war, Israel became a pariah state in Africa in solidarity with Egypt whose Sinai peninsular was occupied by Tel Aviv. No African states will open her airspace to Israeli planes. Secondly the distance between Israel and Uganda is over 4000km. Probably these discounted the use of tankers for mid-air refuelling to avoid nuisance of being discovered.

While negotiations with the hijackers via Ugandan government was ongoing, Tel Aviv approached Nairobi for assistance. President Daniel Arap Moi who was in charge agreed. Israeli forces took off south-bound navigating from the Gulf of Aqaba into the middle course of the Red Sea, then due south east until Bab el Mandeb before rounding the Horn of Africa. From that point they flew due south parallel to the eastern African seaboard until they entered Kenya airspace. 

The entire inbound and outbound flight height was low to avoid radar detection. Soviet listening post in Ethiopia was aware, so were US warships in proximity. Inside Kenya the planes descended into the rift valley until they emerged onto Nairobi International Airport to refuel.  After refuelling, they made for Entebbe via the rift valley in a surprise attack, rescued the hostages and flew home in triumph with minimum casualties.  Nairobi denied involvement at the time.

PKK-Ankara Dance via Nairobi
Abdalla Ocalan is the founder-leader of Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), fighting for the liberation of Kurds in Turkey. The Kurds are one of the minority nations discriminated in Turkey among other countries in the region including Iraq, Syria and Iran. They are referred to as the biggest nation without a state. He studied political science at Ankara University. To increase pressure on Turkey, he led his group in armed struggle while based in Syria. However as facts of the ground changed, Damascus reminded him of his new status of an unwelcome guest.

From then he travelled to many countries in Europe including Russia but none granted him asylum. When his plane approached Amsterdam to enable him stand trial, it was refused entry. Greece allowed him entry for a brief period because the diplomatic heat was fierce that no capital wants to have anything associated with him or PKK. Turkish intelligence and her allies deployed across the world monitoring this global movement with the single purpose to capture him.

Ocalan left Greece on a private jet for Nairobi where he was under Greek protection. No one till today can accurately explain the chain of events that followed. Nevertheless Athens came under heavy pressure, Nairobi played her usual part. On February 1999, Ocalan left the Greek embassy in Nairobi for the airport and was stopped and arrested by armed masked men later identified as Turkish intelligence operatives. He was transferred to a waiting aircraft and flown out immediately to Turkey. Naturally Nairobi denied involvement in the operation.

Post-Abduction Fall-Out in Nigeria
Any credible geopolitical watcher will be at a loss on the strategic reason for this costly operation. Given the uncertainty, instability and unreliability of security and public administration which is increasingly spatially limited, Abuja’s triumphalist dispatches are unclear. A number of points need to be recognised for clarity.

The situation on the ground in Nigeria which is accelerating centrifugal forces is unmitigated by the abduction. The spatial spread of instability, non-government armed interventions and kidnappings is wider. This is stronger in the northern part of the country. On this singular point it is evident that the state have lost its monopoly of violence in its territory. Not only that, there is no effective response to lawlessness including absence of arrest of suspects and successful prosecutions.

By the abduction, Nnamdi Kanu has been elevated in stature beyond Abuja’s calculation. Various players on the ground within and outside the government have drawn different conclusions. Rather than destroying morale, it may well transform the fortunes of his supporters and his organisation in the long-term. Nearly 2 decades since Abdallah Ocalan’s arrest, the Kurdish Question remains unresolved by Turkey. Apparently cosmetic accommodations has been by Ankara since then despite the clear fact of the impossibility of its suppression. However the collapse of Iraq following US invasion has effectively granted self-governing Iraqi Kurdistan a lifeline.

Nigeria has not made any tangible gain from this event. One watt of electricity is not added and one litres of clean water is not accessed in the country. Rather instability continues to dodge the country in a situation created and sustained by incompetence of the ruling elite. Apparently, the rank and file of the state are clinging on due to unfettered access to liquid resources, material incentives and privileges.

Conclusion
Therefore in the absence of a credible resolution of generations-long Nigeria problem, the abduction of a person with a foreign passport in a 3^rd country will only exacerbate the situation by highlighting ineffectiveness of the government. Over time the state will be seen to have grappled more than it can chew as its inability to stem the ever growing centrifugal forces as they continue to gain ground towards wider legitimacy.  

Storm of Change - Lessons for Africa

 All are presently given to concentrate on COVID-19 infection. This global blanket is serving various roles and is understood in various ways while a variety of conclusions are drawn by different peoples. The implications are huge at a critical juncture of the world mostly in the Global South.

Old epistemologies have become irrelevant, new approaches are constructed while indigenous solutions are gradually standing up against the barrage of pressures.

The world geopolitical fault lines have sharpened for the next generation. Washington consensus have shrunk to the North American shark and European supplicants. The continued weakening of Europe is reassuring. The rest of its global footprint is imposed with direct and proxy violent offensive. In a sense, a renewed scramble for precious resources beneath their populations.

Russia in the last 2 decades have consolidated her interest in very innovative ways that irreversibly locked Europe and her near-abroad in a strategic stronghold. Her weapons programme is growing by leaps and bounds. To the uninitiated Moscow is not wealthy, while she’s the only country that is building and deploying the most advanced nuclear-powered stealth submarines. Instead of wasting resources on aircraft carriers, strategic weapon-carrying corvettes are deployed with target ranges of 3000km. S-400 air-defence system is already causing mayhem in NATO since Turkey purchased them.

Asia is long gone beyond the total dominance of western powers. Beijing is spearheading a consolidating reality at a speed that her opponents can only be grateful to reflect on.

In West Asia even Gaza Strip is showing active deterrence to an overwhelming force. Tel Aviv seem to be uncertain about her adherence to strategic ambiguity. Her military superiority is chipped away by new technologies held by her adversaries. Washington is rapidly drawing down in the Arabian peninsula and Afghanistan. She left Lebanon in a hurry 1982.

Africa is in a stalemate. This is aptly captured by the recent passing of a hero, President Kenneth Kaunda of Zambia. He was one of the few who understood like President Kwame Nkrumah, that the independence of one country is useless unless the rest of Africa is unchained. He coordinated with brother African heads of government, USSR, Cuba and China. He invested resources for the liberation of Mozambique via Samora Machel (Frelimo), Angola (MPLA), Namibia (SWAPO), Zimbabwe (ZANU/ZAPU) and South Africa (ANC/PAC/etc). He also presciently foresaw the devastation of HIV on the continent.

The main liberation of the mind continues to elude Africa. West African shatterbelt is reeling from a programmed conflict triggered by Ghaddafi’s removal. A proxy conflict for the appropriation of scarce natural resources is ongoing. You can draw your own conclusions on the so-called anti-terror, anti-bandit and anti-militant strategies by western powers. Paris is not leaving Africa and is committed to giving all to keep her stake. President Jacques Chirac said that France doesn’t exist without a supplicant Africa.

Now, South America is regaining her dignity in the last few decades. Her conquest of her mind with appropriate epistemologies imbued with indigenous knowledge systems is redefining her image. Cuba is the first non-power to develop COVID-19 vaccine, followed by Iran. The arrival of South America on modern stage is summarised by events in Venezuela. In Hugo Chavez, the marginalised finally took power. The plebes, hewers of wood, drawers of water and wretched of the earth embraced power through the ballot box and held it. Regardless of pressure, sanctions, afflictions, deprivation and suffering; the collective dignity of people’s across the continent have secured a solid reference.

Outsiders will never understand, the Western-oriented cannot appreciate the groundswell of intergenerational convergence of struggle with opportunity. In this documentary, important conclusions can be drawn especially by the African.

Countering Collapsing Leadership in Southern Igboland

 Introduction

There is a sustained decline of leadership quality in Igboland since 1967. With the massive shock it withstood during the Nigeria – Biafra War, most of its elements were lost as it limped grudgingly to 1982 with the first civilian rule in Nigeria. Since 1983 the compact between leaders and followers has broken down and what obtains is discredited, abysmal and regressive. This article attempts to flesh out some of the typological characteristics sustaining the breakdown and suggest at least a solution to the problem from a strategic viewpoint.

Spaces & Unique Qualities

Location only influence human actions rather than determine them. The implication of this ground truth confirms that change is the only permanent feature on any part of the earth, the only home of man including Igboland. Over 80% of Igbo population live in rural areas. There is abundant evidence of leadership change with observational data captured since 2016. This data only confirms the double flotsam & jetsam of centrifugal outcomes in Abuja and the state capitals. Standard of living and quality of life continues to decline across the board. Between 2017 – 2019 a 25-litre of palm oil never exceeded N7,999 in any market in southern Igboland. Apparently numerous major & minor palm oil dealers left the industry. Mayhem, instability and uncertainty rules!

Horrors of Leading

Most bearers of ascribed and achieved leadership i.e. men in the area have failed. It is natural that the landscape is contaminated by the prevailing poison of ontological and existential poverty flowing from Abuja. The following negatives dominate leaders disposition including lack of curiosity, insensitivity to complexity & history, slavish attachment to European & USA hypotheses/theories, ignorance of huge cost of solutions, poverty of problem-resolution tools & skills, anathema to knowledge, allergy to knowledge bearers and hatred for delegation. These negatives are found across the board in both urban and grassroot roles; in the political, social, economic, the Church and ecclesial groups. These are the collective drivers of the collapse of Igbo society.

Footprints for Man

Bad leadership doesn’t always correlate with bad followership however majority of followers carry the can falling from bad leadership setting off a hydra-headed explosion that affects every person in every family in the communities. Distrust, lack of confidence, fear and suspicion gradually rear their ugly heads with clear behavioural and spatial footprints. To beef up security home parcels are fenced and gated, within which large homes with gothic roof are usually erected for lizards and rats to occupy.

Another expression is ‘pure water’ syndrome, a desperate valueless and ahistorical living. The previous generation had cool fresh water stored in clay pots, a signature feature of a people that has vanished even in villages. Of course there is the pathological public display of material things. The best expression is the torturous erection of costly places of worship in villages by the poorest people consolidating the spectre of confused spiritual identity and ambiguous spiritual leadership. 

Browse of Confusion

One of the most powerful sources of leadership crisis across the board is uncritical attachment to ideas/theories/hypotheses from the Global North. Most of the leaders subscribe to these poisons without even reviewing and unpacking their components. For example many accept the idea of cash crop vs food crop. They also root for foreign direct investment vs local abundant resources and opportunities. They hang on to an uncritical and ahistorical presentation of knowledge which they helplessly impose on impressionable young minds transmitting poisons from one generation to another. 

Everything indigenous is beneath their dispositions, paying lip service to their values and potential to respond to current problems. The sad truth is that elite Europeans & USA citizens with power have never wanted other peoples, ethnicities and nations. A comprehensive treatment is found in Black Skin, White Mask by Frantz Fanon. There is no such thing as an African European, Asian European or African American. These are illusions packaged and sold to the existentially deprived & ontological poor.

The limitation of some of these ideas is recently evident. Global North elite will suffer their own populations before they export it to other peoples. COVID-19 decimated United States while the leaders played for time. European Union with all its wealth and advancement couldn’t produce a vaccine. The invincibility of Israeli armed force is exposed by the strategic error of allowing its eastern flank to be compromised which brought Iran to its borders. Despite sanctions in a generation, Iran has moved from being a no-power to a nuclear power. Brazil organises the best football but is on a freefall with COVID-19. Few weeks ago, India was flexing muscles with China and went on weapon-buying spree only for COVID-19 to unleash aggressively on its 1.3 billion people.

So the question to be posed is thus, does an Igbo leader/follower recognise his/her dignity intuitively? Or does he/she only have confidence in self-reference to others and things? An unexamined life is unworthy of living regardless of attainment and status. The mind must be drained of erstwhile poisons for life-giving knowledge to germinate and grow. There is no middle ground. A dignified people rise only through defiance of current powers, order and structures.

Ahead to Tomorrow

Things will get tough before getting better. The fact remains that the current indigenous structures are very weak to contend with the emerging problems initiated by the double implosion of Abuja and the state capitals. The kind of emerging problems can no longer be articulated and solved at the nuclear family level only. Which hospital is affordable? How is preventable health care managed? Where does a pregnant mother go for ante-natal care? Who provides resources for a talented child from a weakly resourced home? How/where are improved seeds obtained and distributed every farming season? These and more problems affect everyone and require well taught out collective action. Such actions need a new leadership.

There is a desperate need to revitalise indigenous leadership structure which is embedded in the community. The old leadership needs to be updated rather than be eliminated. Dynamic centralisation at the local level is the way forward. A new leadership need to fast-forward incorporation of young men and women into the ranks. There is huge untapped human resource in the villages in retired professionals. They will bring their skills, expertise, professional experiences and networks on board. These are the keys towards preparing the ground for knowledge-based economies with unique characteristics of each community. Above all this leadership must be open to share and interact with others for innovation exchange.

The community structure needs strengthening, fed by relevant policies, backed up with dynamic systems/processes, and sustained by an active personnel who implement approved proposals & initiatives. The community becomes a capital, a centre of excellence, an exporter and generator of added-value resources. Abuja is remote now, Owerri may return to better day. There is no need waiting for both centres.

There are rich opportunities waiting to be tapped if the collective will is brought to bear in recognising that a generational potential is open for positive exploitation. Only if the danger of inaction is recognised and positive action is accelerated.

Conclusion

Creative destruction in every age opens new paths for persons and collectives to recognise potential responses for strategic initiatives. Therefore communities have the best opportunities to embrace what appears ugly, regressive and disgusting by collectively articulate lasting cost-effective solutions for calibrated implementation. This ushers in stability and certainty. Through this way, the unintended consequences of centrifugal outcomes are avoided for consolidation & a healthy transfer from the current generation to the next. 

The Beginning of the End (Nigeria)?

Introduction

Events of the last few months in Nigeria especially in the east of the Niger are beginning to show interesting patterns. Patterns of confrontation and open conflict between different dynamic forces and factors are gradually emerging from the fissures that predate Nigeria’s consolidation in 1914 as a British geopolitical project. Taking a departure from 2016, this article will address some historical pointers while zooming on a few variables in Eastern Nigeria whose movements over time suggest strong indications of rupture rather than compromise.

In the Beginning

If the concept, entity and geopolitical reality referred to Nigeria has a foundation; it is evidently very weak that its owner must be caught between knocking it down to rebuild it and investing huge resources to shore up the foundations. Indications suggest that the Leaning Tower of Pisa has a better chance of standing another few centuries. Having written that, historical amnesia has the strongest index in many who review Nigeria.

Geographically, Nigeria consist of 2 parts. Fulani Empire in the north and the rest. Fulani empire covers swaths of territory from Borgu west of Sokoto to Garoua, Cameroun on the east – west axis between longitudes 4th degree East and 14th degree East. Its latitudinal extent ran from the 14th degree North to below 8th degree North. Makurdi seats on the 8^th degree parallel. Ilorin in slightly north of Makurdi. This is a huge geopolitical space ran from Sokoto. This arrangement came into existence after Usman Danfodio became the master of Sokoto and developed an ingenious geopolitical order laced in the amalgam of Islam & fulanisation to overthrow and dominate all lands east and south.  Rivers Niger and Benue didn’t obstruct this policy.

This order held firm until post-1885 Berlin Conference Scramble for Africa took effect. While Islamo-Fulani hegemony held sway, sections of the population in this multinational and multi-religious empire sustained their struggle for limited autonomy. These include various nations around today’s southern Kaduna,  Plateau, Benue, Taraba and Adamawa and old Borno. What appears as today’s struggle in these lands are phases of an old struggle for political control rather than clashes for land. Names like General Zamani Lekwot, Colonel Yohanna Madaki and Zango-Kataf should ring bells. Nations south of the two rivers bar Ilorin were never under Sokoto. For complete treatment read A Short History of Nigeria by Rex Niven.

It is important to stress that all officials of Fulani Empire from its beginning to the present are Black Africans i.e. dark-skinned Africans. However while Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe & Chief Obafemi Awolowo cared less,  certainly Dr Yakubu Gowon and Mr Theophilus Y Danjuma never knew or read these histories!

Interestingly the eastern boundary have changed several times from the 1950s until the recent past concession of Bakassi Peninsular to Cameroun. There is no northern boundary as permanent lines are not marked in the sand rather the frontiers start from the last arid settlement. This is clear from in-bound Kano flights descending from Northern Niger.

Operation Python Dance

Towards the end of 2016 widespread discontent in the general population reach fever high. The main driver of discontent is purely economic, the absence of capital and lack of regular access to capital in every form. This is testified to a macroeconomic policy of waste which bring many things to collide simultaneously. A mismanaged economy, an unproductive space, an over inflationary market, low (informal and formal) worker morale and enthronement of corruption! With this deadly cocktail, Abuja primed itself in a selective response to citizens reaction by targeting 5 Igbo-majority states.

Adopting a buffering strategy of limited interaction & partial exclusion, Operation Python Dance was deployed with full military powers against the population of the states. These are unarmed civilian populations focused on day-to-day survival who are facing sanctions in their homeland in a constitutional republic. This policy is expressed in and round these states along the major roads punctuated with military/police check points every 4km. There are also intra-city check points. The role of the check points include slowing movements, increasing cost of business/interaction, extorting money and inciting the populations. One can call these spaces military zones because the uniformed persons on these checkpoints act with impunity.

The other method is the deployment of cattle herds by armed ‘intelligence’ persons to prowl villages and communities for information with geographical precision. These are not cattle grazing exercise rather a show of dominance of a self-assumed conqueror.

However the unseen consequences include alienation of the populations and confirmation that they are beyond the pale of Nigeria. It has mental and experiential impact inflating an already huge collective memory. On another level it strengthens the connection between the younger generation and their parents’ negative experiences of Nigeria in the 1960s that culminated in Nigeria-Biafra War. To them these acts confirm that Nigeria is trust-deficit, unreliable, unstable and uncertain. In summary, sanctions or Operation Python Dance failed abysmally but accelerated new realities & new leadership disconnected from the old guard. The nascent leaderships with undefined constituencies are experimenting with new aspirations beyond the confines of Nigeria’s narrative. Abuja lost the narrative, which is ‘one-Nigeria by any means’ narrative.

Salaries & Pensions

It is difficult to appreciate how Nigeria survived this long from a data perspective. It almost defies logic that an entity dominated by long-term south-facing variables and indicators is unconsumed for nearly 2 generations. Well! This survival parameter is strongly shaken by two powerful indicators. In the 5 Igbo-majority states public service salary and pension payments are non-trivial. In addition to the combustion unleashed territorially by Abuja in Operation Python Dance, poverty of leadership is fully expressed through non-payment or delayed payment of remunerations.

Various states governors have elevated the ugly practice into traditions of fund denial to workers and pensions in the last 4 years with disastrous consequences. The best salary and pension payments states are Ebonyi, Anambra and Enugu. Imo and Abia States are dung-heaps for public servants & pensioners. Public servants constitute majority of workers and are the major sources of funds for families and communities. The deliberate disruption of this flow of strategic resources is a watershed feeding the narrative that these communities have no future in Nigeria. The average salary & pension payment cycles are 4 months & 6 months respectively in Imo State.

Which society will endure this vicious trend devoid of reaction for such a long time? How can such spaces develop? How can schools, hospitals and services function? How can stability be ensured in the communities? The abysmal standard of living & poor quality of life are instant outcomes. Only in few places does local leadership shows strategic thinking in absorbing the lessons as opportunities for collective action. Sadly non-government (grassroot) leadership is tenuously weak across the board leaving the space for various voices with unclear motives. Evidently this scenario has increased tension in the land as Nigeria continues to recede gradually from hearts and minds.

Free Pass

Observations made during the last Holy Week in Imo State confirmed new realities on the ground. Since December 2016 roads in the named states are punctuated by military/police checkpoints. This is the case every 4 km or less. For unfolding reasons, Aba – Owerri Road from Airport Junction to Owerri had only 2 checkpoints against the daily average of 5. One at the Airport Junction and another at Akachi Junction! The reason for this development was unclear, it was certainly not government policy. However reports since then have continued to present pattern of checkpoints abandonment by military personnel and police beyond the sub-region.  

If this pattern is sustained over a time, it will testify to the huge loss of morale in the military/police ranks. It also signals that costs of manning checkpoints are accruing more than benefits. On another level, it suggest that rank and file no longer follow orders from high command. The recent past popular End-SARs demonstration is important to note.

Whenever this pattern of events become apparent, a wind of change in the power distribution is imminent. This means that the status quo ante is no longer tenable in its erstwhile configuration. Nevertheless, while general breakdown of order is not apparent perception of order has evaporated. The weak tangibles of the state is fritting away. Will it be conclusive? Will the custodians of one-Nigeria make one more attempt toward its restoration? Let the reader draw conclusions.

Conclusion

The situation in Eastern Nigeria is dire. All indicators are pointing south. Most of the long-suffering populations perceive recent events with reservation and concern. While uncertainty thrives, people know that nature abhors a vacuum. It is difficult to accurately pinpoint when the end will come, if it will. What is certain to come is more suffering, more discontent, more struggle and tension from the biggest state in the West African shatterbelt called Nigeria.

Portuguese Euthanasia Bill & the 3rd Secret of Fatima

Introduction

In a COVID-19 dominated space & time, it was reported last week that the Portuguese parliament passed a euthanasia bill with a significant majority. Given that this is one tool from the culture of death encouraged increasingly in the despiritualising European Union, such repeat in Portugal calls for global concern. This concern is drawn from the fact that Portugal is privileged to receive messages from heaven when Our Blessed Mother Mary, the Mother of God, was sent by God to 3 children in Fatima to warn the world in 1917. We are going to explore this backdrop against the current geopolitical events and highlight their potential implications.

The Bill

Portugal is a member of the European Union, a post-national and post-Christian geopolitical entity. One of the main features of EU is its anti-Christian and anti-life positions. It is against first principles drawn from profound divine order. Simply put EU is against God and the culture of life. It is a bastion of offensives against marriage (between a man and a woman), gender (male and female only), the unborn, family and life itself hence it is a purveyor of death. While many of these values are subtly attacked, industrial killing of the unborn in the womb (abortion) and killing of the weak through medication (euthanasia) is gradually entrenched. For the EU dignity of the human person is non-existent.

Portuguese lawmakers moved under the cover of COVID-19 to progress this bill so that doctors and nurses in her health system can legally kill patients under various pretexts established in law. The main pretexts will be that the patients sees themselves as a burden to others, not necessarily that the illness is foreclosed. Another will be pain, and then incurability of illness. The person is seen as an individual devoid of identity, attributes and relationships. The so-called inserted checks will not be applied to safeguard patient’s dignity. Just fodders for the state through the health system! The sacrificial and cohesive dimensions of human suffering will be stripped by such law as Belgian and Netherlands examples show.  

Apparently one would be prompted to see this bill as an anti-COVID-19 measure but once it is in the statute books, it will outlast the infection.

The Deposit of Faith

Portugal is one of the few European countries where faith is strong as a value of personal and collective identity. Most of the population is Catholic. Her history in the last 1000 years is shaped by the Catholic faith. About more than half of the population identify themselves as believing in God which may not account for those attend weekly services and liturgical celebrations. This pattern is strongest in Lisbon & Porto, the two biggest cities. In the minor cities and towns, significant sections of the populations identify their faith with regular weekly participation in the various services and liturgical celebration.

Portugal influenced and is influenced by global events of the last 2 centuries. So it is not an island isolated from events near and far. It was a world power in the 12th - 14^th centuries and held distant colonies including Goa in India, Macao (China), East Timor; Angola, Mozambique and Guinea-Bissau in Africa. Brazil was her biggest prize.  Her current position in global affair is rather demoted.

However her declining fortune took a swift turn as the world descended into one of the bloodiest conflicts in human history. As the 1^st world war rages in the western and eastern fronts with minimum participation of Lisbon, a profound event took place in Fatima, 90km north of Lisbon. A event with profound impact and consequence for the world. On the 13^th May 1917, Our Blessed Mother Mary appeared to three shepherd children in Fatima with a message of peace and reparation for sin, encouraging devotion to her Immaculate Heart and the recitation of the Holy Rosary. She appeared to them on the 13^th day for six consecutive months which climaxed with the Miracles of the Sun on the 13^th October, when the sun ‘danced’ against all natural laws. For comprehensive treatment read The Whole Truth About Fatima by Frere Michel de la Sainte Trinite in 3 volumes. It is important to stress that this apparition is approved by the Catholic Church. Fatima is global pilgrimage site.

The three children were cousins, illiterate, from ordinary families and spent all their lives before the apparition in their village. They were given messages including prophecies; some private, public and secret respectively on 13^th July 1917. There are three main secrets given to the children including a vision of hell, Russian ascendancy to the global stage and a special message to the Pope to be revealed in 1960 but remains unrevealed by the Holy See. The second secret or message has both geopolitical and prophetic dimensions.

Our Blessed Mother Mary warned that if the world continues to offend God and Russia is not consecrated to her Immaculate Heart by the Pope, another worse war will breakout. She gave the children signs including the name of the reigning pope & a night illuminated by unknown light. Almost 2 decades after WW1 this unknown light lit up the northern hemisphere on 25^th January 1938 under Pope Pius XI. The next year the German air force started bombing the Polish port city of Danzig/Gdansk setting off global conflagration for the next 5 years. USSR rose to global dominance for two generations. Despite the conditional nature of the prophecies, the accuracy of their fulfilment is inexplicable. The world doesn’t listen. It is safe to conclude that Russia is not yet consecrated by the Pope to the Immaculate Heart of Mary according to heavenly requirements. The popes have refused for a reason. Read Mystery of Iniquity by Fr Paul Kramer.

Our concern is focused on the 3^rd secret whose accessible content reads, “In Portugal, the dogma of faith will always be preserved, etc.”

The crucial take on the prophecy is the evident opposite. This means that over time faith in God more in Jesus Christ will decline across the world to various degrees except in Portugal. There will be a global apostacy with Portugal remaining the anchor of fidelity, a concentration of remnants who will hold fast to the faith. The same messages have been confirmed in the 1961 - 1965 apparitions of Garabandal, Spain. apparition Now, consider the state of global affairs since the 1991 USSR collapsed including the number of conflicts and millions of casualties recorded till the present time. This cannot be described as peace. Rather this move suggest a renewal of global hurt, pain and distress.

The same pressure on faith in God and on first principles doesn’t immune Portugal however while their elite are interlocked with the global elite, natural outcomes like unlimited abortion and euthanasia are accounted for. However, this doesn’t represent Portuguese majority. The Portuguese like the rest of the world will be tried, assaulted and humiliated for their faith by every means. There are only few cases where the state is a true submissive vehicle of heavenly designs and at this time Lisbon is playing an opposite game contrary to the teaching of the Church and the Sacred Scripture.

COVID Vaccine Geopolitics

The attack on the Portuguese and their faith is masked as anti-COVID strategy. However evidence shows that anti-COVID strategies including imposing fear on populations is used as an excuse to push the bill. Besides Lisbon is no more stronger as to resist demarche from Berlin/Brussels. In the current climate the vaccine war is playing out unconstructively across the world. EU is no more a confused spectator as its poverty of leadership shines. Apparently Berlin/Brussels didn’t produce any vaccine for a simple reason, its dependency status under Washington DC.

Its vaccine supply is interrupted and her populations are palpitating with confusion as each day goes by with demonstrations in various cities. Now bear in mind that the efficacy/efficiency ratios of these vaccines continues to hover below 80%. Hungary broke ranks by imported Sputnik V from Russia which has efficacy/efficiency ratio of 91%. Prague counts her citizens as person with dignity. It is clear the EU under pressure from Washington DC refused to approach Moscow even in emergency to protect her citizens. Even the Holy See has taken a PR role on these matters.

In the frenzy Iran bans all importation of all vaccines from US and EU. This is the only country that made such law and remains standing so far. The forces of the global elite have suddenly discovered that the world is divided into spheres where its control is limited. China is taking care of her population and allies, India is pursuing a similar track while Cuba is developing her own vaccine. Effectively a multipolar or tripolar world has emerged piled on Washington DC, Moscow and Beijing.

It is not lost on any careful observer that the decline of the West has moved another notch. Like or hate Mr Donald Trump, his presidency only accelerate the obvious by limiting US destabilising role in the world. As the Igbos say, a tree doesn’t fall on the first cut. Evidently Asia is moving ahead unconstrained by the infection while the so-called advanced developed West is mired in regression.

De-Christianised Europe

Europe is no more Christian than Igbo is the moon’s lingua franca. What is presented as freedom of conscience and religion is only a totemic presentation frozen in the statute books. Its limiting implication eliminates the relational and communitarian dimension of faith and worship especially in the public space. The culture of death is given prominence and primacy as unlimited killing of the unborn and increased legalisation of killing the weak by health professional shows.

Republic of Ireland used to be known as an island of saints, a bastion of catholic faith and Emerald Isle. The last decade that shown that this precious faith heritage is almost lost and the island is emerging as the Scarlet Stump with annually rising number of abortions performed on the island.

Poland is currently under siege from Berlin/Brussels for holding strongly to her faith heritage especially in her defiant refusal to permit unlimited killing of unborn children in the womb. Hungary is also facing similar attacks accentuated by media offensives. These are the only countries in the EU whose leaders are bold enough to stand by their traditions, heritage and histories.

The main plank of contention between Moscow and the West rest on the place of faith in God. Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn captured it succinctly. The global elite with their atheistic materialist designs/errors which unleashed Bolshevik communism in 1917 as prophesied by Our Blessed Mother Mary with disastrous consequences across generation continues to seek Russia’s humiliation. Is it surprising that Moscow moved first on COVID-19 vaccine and the result continues to be rubbished in the mainstream media?

Now the sights have turned on Portugal and only time will tell the impact on the world. It is a subtle stripping of human dignity over time, the likes of which are easily explained away by the so-called experts even many self-identifying believing Christians.

Conclusion

Portugal’s move to legalise euthanasia is not isolated. It is part of a wider EU strategy of de-Christianisation and despiritualisation. This is an atheistic materialist agenda for enslaving the world for power and profit based on removing dignity of human person. The march will continue however the true faith of men and women of goodwill resides in their precious hearts and not on the statute books of state’s positive laws.