Potential Russian Response to the Latest Geopolitical Challenge

Introduction

The latest phase of United States ‘perpetual conflict’ within overland proximity to Russian border opens the age-old question; what will Russia do in response? There is no attempt to answer the question directly rather an opportunity will be explored of significant geopolitical decisions by Moscow which to all intents and purposes suggests acquiescence to the realpolitik of a determined aggressor.

Post – USSR Complexity

Russia has come a long way from the sudden collapse of USSR nevertheless it was a surprise to its operators and its opponents no matter how loud post collapse hubristic triumph becomes. Russia existed before USSR and United States respectively. Russian Academy of Science was established in 1725. Russia as a major successor of USSR has worked assiduously to refine and redefine her identity on various fronts since the collapse of Soviet experiment. However it will be unjust and intellectually deficient to lumped Soviet experience together with post-Soviet outcomes as a continuum since the complexity and dynamics of both political realities are divergent at least from a temporal perspective.

It is equally dangerous for erroneous conclusions drawn from outside of Russia by information speculators to form the basis of critical analysis of Russia’s geopolitics and foreign policy. Even significant western intellectual foray is guilty of such speculation and buttress the argument of elitist disdain by Martin Malia in this magna opus, Russia under Western Eyes.However a review of post-USSR geopolitics and foreign policy decisions focusing on Putin-Medvedev presidencies is balanced as this is the tangible political reality in the last decade.

Moscow’s Western Obsession

There is a conclusion in western capitals i.e. Washington DC that Moscow is predictable with non-reaction to her elastic geopolitical maneuverers in the last 2 decades.  If this position is true, it has an older origin in Peter the Great’s reforming Russia root and branch according to his view of Western Europe of his time. While his import for such giant investment may be visionary, he and his successors didn’t fail to notice the psychological conclusion of western European elite especially the Anglo that such investment borders on inferiority. It is evident many European capitals have benefited handsomely at various time in post-Petrine Russia.

Whether it is aware or not, Moscow has rendered a difficult account of itself in her own narrative of what it is and what it stands for. Moscow has failed to fully render an intellectual responsibility of her own Europe from ‘Atlantic to the Urals’. It has wallowed and waxed a defensive lyric of her ontology, raison d’etre and achievements in its right and as European. While the current geopolitical ‘hegemon’ deem it fit to demonise Moscow with various policies in collaboration with various European capitals with richer historical pedigree, Moscow is caught in an idealistic, naïve and reactive submissions against her own strategic interests.

A number of examples illustrate this frame of policy making and strategic implementations. Despite advancing the policy of ‘energy as a weapon’, Moscow refused to admit that flawed Soviet era containment never diminished as the newly independent countries in the Near-Abroad openly became springboards for her destabilisation. This is pronounced in those countries with ethnic Russian as higher proportion of their populations.

It took Moscow many years to realise that her economic fate/interest should be in her hands. Her full dependence of western economic/financial architecture blinded her to the potential of being subjected to economic warfare. It took 2014 US directed EU sanctions for Moscow to commence real investment in developing robust strategic payment system, an instrument Japan, China and Brazil already possess.

International Confusion

A number of incidents have put Moscow’s credibility on the line in the last few years. More so the decisions behind these incidents suggest that foreign policy decisions are flawed, lacks depth and are somewhat hazily promoted ‘under international law’ even to the point of going contrary to strategic and national interests. Global South has been watching these sad developments with keen interest and deep concern.

A case in point is the Iran file. Moscow is more aware than most capitals of Washington DC’s aspiration for Tehran. Moscow is very aware that Tehran brooks no interests in being subordinated to her under any circumstance. Moscow is aware of the geopolitical and geographical tangibles which placed Iran as a strategic competitor to her at least given her potential access to European petroleum market by sea tankers or by pipelines hence the strategic nature of the current Syrian conflict.

Nevertheless instead of implementing a pragmatic and strategic handling of (an ally) Iran file, a number of tragic geopolitical calculations were approved by Moscow. Moscow allowed Iran file to be moved to UN Security Council hence extended sanctions and call for intrusive inspections. What was Moscow’s interest? To please her western interlocutors Moscow cancelled a fully paid contract for supplying Tehran with S-300 anti-aircraft defensive equipment, in the process stifle her own aspiring weapon industry. In addition to that Moscow proactively complied with the sanction regime including but not limited to delaying contracted work on Busher nuclear plant and refused to take advantage of the vacuum to invest massively in Iran while China was cutting deals with Tehran.

Tehran has not hidden her displeasure with Moscow’s action on her file and had express so with Russian officials. Playing such zero-sum game without national interest guarantees smacks of the wrong way of advancing foreign policy. There is no evidence that Russia received tangible reward or benefit from United States for her ill-fated troubles. Russia knows fully well that United States brooks no rivals hence the Kissingerian geopolitics as balance of power is dead. For Washington DC, geopolitics and foreign policy remains the custody of one unrivalled country towering above the rest including Russia. This is the US realpolitik currently in action and expressed in various forms.

Security Questions

Moscow has always expressed her desire to be a collaborator of European security architecture with or without North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). This issue is loaded and complex with a number of impediments. Such collaboration will be welcomed by United States if Moscow is weak and will play her part as a subjected entity. Feasibility of realising Moscow’s initiative could rest on expectation of a weakened US restricted to her regional backyard with less potent hand across European bows. In a sense a weakened Europe unencumbered by an external power may be harbinger of multiple power centres and a return to balance of power regime that finally favours Moscow unrestricted and unfettered European diplomatic and geopolitical flourish. Time is still far on the project.

Given a number of conflicts, Russia has been exposed to mere bystander status pretending to punch weight perceived as heavy but insignificant on impact. Her underbelly was mangled and devastated by terrorism during the Chechen war placing the Caucasus in a state of interregnum within the Middle East-Caucasus-Afghanistan Triangle. See Map below. This triangle bar Iran is unstable, dangerous, toxic and unpredictable, and is a magnet for insurgency and illicit drugs. Bear in mind that Iran is militarily surrounded by United States and of course targeting Russia. 

Insurgent Triangle

It is well documented that Russia’s near-abroad has been punctured repeatedly to drain her resources in Georgia in 2008 of which she responded and effectively advanced her partition.Given that most countries in the near-abroad are inherently weak, it behoves Moscow to project pragmatic policies to contain their geopolitical aspirations and enable their economic stability. Near-abroad countries have not denied their subversive tendencies towards Moscow. See Map below. Ukraine is currently burning not in itself rather as a strategic baggage and direct shot across Moscow exploited by her unpatriotic Ukrainian elite.

Flashpoints in Near_Abroad - Georgia 2008 (r) and Ukraine 'Ongoing' (l)

Moving far afield Moscow did herself no favours. Her 2011 management and isolation of Libya is classic western obsession despite huge economic interest including but not limited to billion dollar contracts. Moscow knew well in advance that Washington DC approved invasion of Africa in Libya and meekly submitted to ‘inhuman intervention’. Of course Moscow will be hard pressed to play the hand of trusted interlocutor in African affairs. Libya is a testament of betrayal!

Current Round

Syrian conflict has been raging for nearly 3 years with no end in sight. Moscow has huge interest in Syria including Tartus Naval Base and one is uncertain if she’ll invest everything to protect and secure them. Of course Moscow pragmatically played a crucial role in eliminating Damascus biological weapons in full knowledge that the conflict will not cease. Rather Damascus is more exposed devoid of strategic deterrent as it becomes a theatre of geopolitical jostling.

Russia is aware of the players and conductors of the ugly symphony in the Arab World and with the proximity to her own borders, one anticipates an active engagement. Turkey’s deliberate border porosity with Syria has potential to redirect goods, equipment and personnel toward Russia via Georgia or even Ukraine. See Map below. 

Turkey Border with Syria

The current phase of the US involvement is a master stroke of realpolitik despite the carnage it carries. The policy of regime change in Damascus has entered phase 2 and one wonders if Moscow will put everything on the line to reverse the process now as it is obvious that elimination of Syria biological weapons robbing her of tangible deterrent was a waste of time and space. There is no doubt that Tehran understands the issue in Syria and has invested massively to reverse the advance of regime change forces.

Normal Essence of a State

It is correctly perceived around the world especially in the Global South that Russia’s military relationships with various countries are simple profit making ventures as few countries count on her committed heavy defensive investment and protection. It is realpolitik for them to adapt in the face such defensive posture of Moscow. While Moscow has world power potential, her core geostrategy is limited to the protection of her territorial integrity including her airspace and continental shelves. Every country does that without distinction.

Tehran – Master of Strait of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb?

Adjusted Map showing Bab el Mandeb (l) and Strait of Hormuz (r)

Introduction

While United States is whipping up sentiments to reactivate regime change programme through re-engagement in Syria via attacking DAESH, an indeterminate guerrilla with no fixed assets; a more significance event is taking place under the radar. This is a far more strategic move with far more serious geopolitical implications. The Houthis in Yemen who have been fighting the central government in a coalition with other parties for years have finally reached Sana’a and took power few days ago. This is a clear testament to the on-going reconfiguration of global geopolitical and geostrategic calculations. 

Clash of Capitals

Yemen is a country that attracts headlines of which most readers have no clue why such a small country should be the fixation of large western media corporations. Yemenis are Arabs and mostly Muslims. This is not a resource-rich country neither does it have a buoyant economy. Apparently, many news reports about the country are linked to the proverbial ‘war against terrorism’. Nevertheless its location is the most strategic and has been so for millennia. It holds the keys to and also the door to and from the Red Sea (to the Suez Canal).

For decades since its unification, many sections of the county’s population have been expressing their frustration with the central government and its inability to share what remains of the national wealth, lack of investments, lack of public service and domination of power by certain sections of the population especially the Sunni Muslims. In the last decade it has been appropriated into a space of struggle by US against 'terrorists' without 'boots on the ground'. Drones are the weapons of trust and choice, the victims/collateral damage surely are Yemenis.

This internal conflict possesses regional and international dimensions. The Sunni power brokers have the support of Saudi Arabia and Riyadh has made good on her interest by utilising her military to attack the opposition in the past. The opposition directed by the Houthis are mostly Shia in religious persuasion with tacit support or rather looked favourably upon by Iran. It must be appreciate that what is going on in Yemen is not a religious conflict rather a domestic conflict with proxy dimensions for Riyadh and Tehran.

Finally

In the last few days the Houthis finally entered the capital, Sana’a, and effectively took power. This action has serious implications no matter how much it is diminished. For Saudi Arabia it is a serious diplomatic and geopolitical blow as it means that Tehran is finally at the door. Given differences between both capitals including Tehran’s grievances against Riyadh dating back to the Iran-Iraq war, there is guessing of discomfort in the Saudi diplomatic and foreign relations departments. 

This outcome if sustained will force Riyadh to recalculate its position in the region especially in Iraq and Syria in terms of her long term interest beyond violence-diplomacy. It will have to revalue relationships with her allies especially United States as it is unlikely they are unaware of Houthi moves to take power hence diminishing the Sunni/Saudi card in Yemen.

Giant Prize on a Plate

With the Houthis finally in power in Sana’a, the Shia crescent has bulged in the south. If they sustain and hold power with stability in tow, then certain known views of current geopolitical configuration is bound to metamorphose. This may make Tehran the strategic master of 2 very significant geographical locations in the world. These 2 locations are the choke-points tied to the bloodline of global economy as nearly 50% of global crude oil (tankers) pass through the Strait of Hormuz (Iran) daily and almost 90% of East-European trade passed through Bab el Mandeb (Yemen).

The Strait of Hormuz is the trap door of the Persian Gulf while Bab el Mandeb is the trap door of the Red Sea. Iran to an extent may become the sole holder of the keys to these 2 highly significant geopolitical doors. There is no doubt that Other geopolitical players are taking note. 

These are highly significant locations with huge geostrategic and geoeconomic implications for Tehran. Global energy security architecture will be reconfigured as Tehran is strengthened by this strategic development. Curiously the loss of Yemen to Saudi Arabia (in her backyard) and if the loss is sustained in short and medium terms, it is inevitable that US is further exposed and will have to accelerate her rapprochement with Tehran. United States will surely sustain her energy supply lines which may result in her active demotion or relegation of Riyadh while Saudi Arabia has little room to manoeuvre but to accept reality as fait accompli vis-a-vis Tehran. This also potentially opens opportunity for enhancement of Beijing-Tehran military relationship with a naval base in Bandar Abbas, Iran, just at the door of Strait of Hormuz. Interesting!

An interesting outcome remains the fact that while US increased her military investments to contain Tehran, the effect continues in regressive trajectory. Only time will tell whether the emerging dispossession of Yemen from Saudi Arabia a la United States will deepen or fold in the face of aggressive reactionary full spectrum response by Washington DC. It is a complex reality with no easy answer.

Africa in the Mist of Geopolitical Mayhem

Africa

Introduction

African continent includes lands and continental shelves from the tip of Tunisia to the Cape in South Africa, and from Cape Verde (Islands) to the tip of Somalia. There is no room for imposed sub-Saharan and ‘Middle East’ metageographical nomenclature! The past 2 decades has brought new lease of life to external views of the continent, its usefulness and opportunities in terms of human and non-human resources. 

The geography of the continent placed it is an enviable location making contacts and associations inevitable from anywhere in the world. It is the position of this article that while non-African geopolitical forces have pushed themselves into tight reversible corners for both positive and negative objectives, Africans i.e. elite and the commons are moving forward regardless of quality and organisational depth.

Post-Colonial Respite

From a purely historical perspective one can assert that colonialism in its pure form on the African continent made a final retreat in 1991 following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Before then Africa was perceived and treated as a collective space of nested multidimensional conflicts excusably rooted in the ideological dichotomy between Washington DC and Moscow. It was also clear that actual African policies of the named capitals are mostly nebulous and ambiguous beyond attempting to impose military solutions in every problem. One must equally make clear that Moscow was not an agent of colonialism and didn't flesh out a coherent plan of building client states on the continent. Geostrategically, it is fair to advance Moscow’s naivety on Africa and this position remains unchanged with its proximate successor, Russia, beyond empty rhetoric.

The main thrust of USSR collapse is obtained in the concentration of conflicts as they shrank qualitatively, the big African countries increased in confidence while mineral resources became the new bête noire for emergent non-ideological conflicts especially in West Africa and Zaire-Rwanda axis. Political power in most African capitals started gradual consolidation in the new garb of democracy while (military) client status got many of them to defer to US. Of course the absence of war is never peace, nevertheless economic and social problems became prominent while potential solutions remained trapped in the firmament.

Positive Distraction

Exit of USSR was a form of grand settlement of an era in Africa geopolitics because in similar fashion United States technically left the scene for greater obsession of global hegemony through total domination of the Arab World. This exit from Africa is important for a number of reasons; the new political spaces of African countries were in a binary state of existence with either unrestricted ability to project power internally or contest spaces or contested machinery of state exists.

The other effect is the opportunity of these capitals to reconfigure their position vis-à-vis the emerging global geopolitical configurations and attempt to craft foreign policies to take advantage of potential changes. It must be asserted that the collapse of USSR did not present the world as a unipolar entity from the African perspective.  Only that the relevant forces where dormant for genuine reasons. This can be perceived from the perspective that no African leader hence can be described as socialist or anti-capitalist rather they were lumped together in a spectrum range between the binary of pro-West and not-so pro-West.

EU Neo-colonial Waste

With an economy mostly tied to western economic architecture, the dollar fitted as the sole international reserve currency and compromise of unprocessed natural resources dependence in a restricted global market dominated; African capitals had to devise programmes for raising cash to maintain their grip on power. In the face of US ambivalence which manifest in her subletting Africa to the former colonial powers (compensated losers in WW2) despite destructive austerity measures and odious debt impositions by World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Union (EU) became the Pretorian guard of Africa for Western interests.

The myopic geostrategy of restricting market access for African products, restricted access to funds through obtuse conditions, denial of political maturity of the capitals and strategic attention to waste of investments only confirm that EU is a retrogressive force. This could be crystallised in the unfinished Inga Dam in DRC which is more or less a poster project for western corruption.  

One of the most glaring expose of this colonial mentality is EU ignorance of new markets and emerging geopolitical powers around the world who share identical interest in having internal security and stability in their territories. The answers to these questions lie in having viable economies supported by accessible raw materials.  EU is tone deaf in accepting Africa as a place and space of positive potential with mutual benefit to all parties in real not delayed time nevertheless many European firms are heading to Africa to seek opportunities and make investments.

One can perceive the French unreconstructed policy where dependence of erstwhile colonies on Paris is entrenched. Evidence on the contrary displays to these capital that France is finished as a European force and rather depends on Africa for viability and identity unlike United Kingdom. French miscalculation in the EU geopolitical chessboard against Germany and normalisation of confused & inflexible governance (of Mitterrand, Chirac & Sarkozy) has left Paris strategically exposed, weakened and marginalised in global affairs. African capitals took note and continue to do so. Portugal and Spain have accepted their post-greatness marginal status with equaminity.

EU is now consigned to maintaining ill-fated metageographical configurations within Africa such as subservient ‘Sub-Saharan’, stillborn ‘Club Med’ and suppliant ‘Middle East’ which have no substance or reality. EU support and French obsession for the 2011 murder of Col Ghaddafi & Libya respectively is a powerful testament. In addition the well-worn dehumanisation of Africans and Africa as a space of retrogression continues at least with Europeans media representation of recent Ebola outbreak. 

Enter the Dragon

China was never far away from Africa. The conditions that allowed China to ‘rise peacefully’ so far can be narrowed down to a few points. Capital is not interested in states per se rather use states as vehicles to maximise profit. Deliberate de-industrialisation of United States and Europe is calibrated by politicians and investment fund managers to invest in markets where cost is abysmally low like China. It isn’t mostly about Chinese singular ingenuity that their fortune simply rose seamlessly. The story is not so juicy in the land of the Dragon for most Chinese citizens.

As stated earlier US zeal to consolidate her hegemonic power in the Arab World or ‘Middle East’ opened up new spaces and opportunities for emerging powers to deal with Africa with their unique geopolitical and geostrategic interests. Their political cultures and strategic experiences are unique but above all they went to Africa not to do African a favour. Suffice to say that they are purchasers of opportunity and not strippers of civilisation for now.

While and EU deliberately distracted and vacillated; Brazil, India, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea and most of all China have made and taken opportunities to engage with Africa/Africans towards making important diplomatic and economic deals. My focus is on China. This is the first time in almost a century an external power is dealing with Africa on equal terms without immediate military threat and cultural imposition. This is the first time a foreign power is expressing interest in purchasing African products and paying for them on the world market prices. It is obvious that Beijing strategy is tied to her internal security and stability concerns rather than in advancing African interest because sustaining a population of 1 billion people in a tough neighbourhood is challenging.

Africa is one of many Beijing files in her bulging geostrategic suite. One of the vehicles for advancing this policy is the ambivalent policy of non-interference in other countries internal affairs. Stripped of its ornaments, it is simply a strategy for eliminating waste (via obtuse conditions) and impediments in business deals including project implementations. This is a welcome development. It is evident that many African capitals are new in this line of thinking even to question or modify some of the projects executed by the Chinese. However one result of Chinese arrival is the almost gradual irrelevance of Bretton Wood instruments on African funding/investment market.

The success of Chinese entry into Africa cannot be denied as is observed in recent tepid effort of United States doing a copycat of Sino-Africa Summit. While room exist for improvement on these deals and implementations, there is certainty that the relationship will grow by leaps and bound given US ‘renewed’ engagement in Iraq. This is engagement will surely continue beyond the life of the current regime in Washington DC. China is confirming the obvious that Africa is a space of progress, a space of development and a space of positive engagement. It is still surprising that many Europeans and North Americans have negative or ambivalent views of Africa to their loss.

Internal Interaction

To successful address African internal interaction, it is essential to confront the primary misinformation traded across generations of the case against interaction. This is a deterministic conclusion developed in Europe that the physical conditions and the physical environment make long distance travel within Africa almost impossible. Usually an African map like the one above is depicted in a binary mode suggesting that Sahara desert is as impenetrable as the tropical forest in the interior and around the coasts. Heads you lose, tail you lose!

Ancestors of the same groups making these regressive conclusions penetrated these ‘obstacles’ to engage in vile slave trade for generations, later conducted colonial project genocides and are participating in advising various African government to ensure strict border controls despite the flawed nature of Berlin Conference boundaries.

Africa has never been closed to business and has always being a space for dense connection networks and multiscalar spatial interaction. History is abound of large and sophisticated empires with capitals that projected power to all corners of their territories meaning that infrastructure were built and maintained by efficient bureaucracies.  These experiences are not lacking in the current generation. While rail mode has limited international scope, road and air transportation modes are active across Africa especially in the various sub-regions.

A number of African airlines such Royal Air Maroc, Arik Air, Ethiopian and EgyptAir to mention a few run successful regional operations. Tourism, trade, investments, ideas and capital are exchange in large measure in these interactions. The recent cancellation of Air France flights to parts of West Africa on flimsy Ebola charge was successfully taken over by Royal Air Maroc among others. Bureaucratic inefficiencies, denuded infrastructure and poor inter-political coordination continue to inhibit intra-African interaction nevertheless there is a positive trend.

The need for improved utility of a large economic space will be the driver of expanded investments in the transportation sector and relaxation of colonial mentality &perception of various governments. Through these policy markets can be accessed in real time and connections consolidated in the same manner as nascent mobile phone investment showed at its inception a decade or more ago.

Conclusion

The flotsam and jetsam of global geopolitics have repositioned Africa in a positive strategic bearing. Africans are aware and have been making important decisions to progress economic development in their various territories. They are also working with various geopolitical partners mostly from the emerging economies to develop strategic partnerships and strategies for advancing economic relationships.

The plain truth is that North Americans and West European elites have historical distractions, superiority complex and emotional obstacles that not only prevent them from taking Africa/African serious now, it is not in their realities that Africa is fit for purpose beyond rhetoric. Nevertheless it is an ontological fact the Africa/Africans have no right to delay the realisation of their full potential as an expected renewal as manifested in previous cycles of greatness.

What Will Russia Do on the Emerging Phase of Perpetual "Middle East" Conflict?

"Middle East" Geopolitical Conflict Landmark

Airstrike Bombing, Beheading; ‘Legitimate’ Target-Collateral Damage, Atrocity

Introduction

The title is deliberate, reasonable and timely. The last decade has brought a new dimension to state sponsored violence as effective non-state sponsored purveyors of violence continue to decline. This is in part due to the demise of USSR in 1991 and associated collapse of ideological divide. If imagination is stretched to its limits it becomes apparent that violence of various forms is mostly sponsored by states directly or by proxy. With this picture, this article attempts a partial treatment through uncomfortable dalliance with ‘critical’ geopolitics in presenting the complexity of recent investment in state sponsored industrial violence around the world, the main requirements and various forms of competing justification descriptions (not narratives) in English (language).

‘Critical’ Geopolitics

The beauty of geography is that everything dabbles into it, like a form of intellectual prostitute. In the case of ‘critical’ geopolitics, it can be reduced to geopolitics without maps, a geopolitics without geography except for text and descriptors associated with locations and areas. The core of ‘critical’ geopolitics revolves around pathological repulsion of geographical core elements; scale, distance, distance, bearing and topography hence the intellectual allergy of maps and geography indeed. Within its fort of textual and discourse analysis, the objective of the article reconciles its essence to capture various dimension of conflicts and industrial violence in select urban spaces in Africa, Arab world and parts of south Asia.

New state-sponsored Industrial Violence Requirement

All conflicts are problems and all problems are projects and all projects have requirements for successful execution and solution. Napoleon Bonaparte was one the first generals who clearly articulated the role of finance or money as pre-requisite for successful prosecution of war. Despite the fact this position is that of a nation-state, the template is the same for liberation movements seeking self-determination, proxy groups seeking nebulous dividends and isolated group running for impervious expectations. It is on this note that conflict on industrial scale is surely a profit making venture requiring huge financing and bottomless lines of credit. Napoleon wasn’t the first to realise this as many successful and unsuccessful generals in antiquity expressed such awareness in their various campaigns.

Money among other requirements is no longer sufficient. Operating war machines on war path not only require support of nation-state citizens/residents but the war campaign must be imposed on them with noisy justifications of armchair ‘expert’ and inconclusive and uncoordinated reports of embedded & biased ‘reporters’. Having the media on side is now an inevitable part of a successful war machine to enable the imposer and impunity-purveyor win not just on the imposed battlefield but equally in the court of public opinion for ‘hearts’ and ‘minds'.

The media machine allows war makers (surely the global power elite) and industrial violence purveyors to commodify murder and industrial killings. Where morality is relativized and determined in a deliberate restrictive definition by the powerful, war and murders are turned into products cheaply accessed and obtained on any communication platform. This initially nauseating product dominates cable networks, newspapers and Internet. Unsurprisingly the repetition of the tired war ‘winning’ questionable narrative transforms the listener or viewer into a norm, careless and disinteresting mind whose consciousness on morality is murdered by a murder product imposed on the airwaves. 

These individuals unconsciously de-appropriate their rights of care, repudiate their right of investigation and at times give up their gift of critical analysis simply because on the surface the war theatre is far away from home.  This state of mind may not change when one of their own, a warrior ‘doing the job he/she loves’ is returned lifeless in a body bag. At this point critical thinking and basic analysis is eliminated by self-delusion and deliberate carelessness in part because the source of livelihood is not dented or seriously challenged.

Competing Justification Descriptions

War is not just an assault on human beings but more so a rape of their heritage, their essence, their ontology and on the earth. Violence purveyors have attempted to arrogate the powers of the impossible towards playing the complex game of ambiguity in their unquenchable belief in weapons precision, specificity of design and sophistication. Hence the use of words like ‘guided’, ‘precision’, and ‘surgical’ to justify lunatic abstraction from reality that weapon cannot be offensive and protective at the same time. 

None of the weapons given above-mentioned prefixes or adjectives have killed less people in Gaza, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Rather it maximises the indignity of taking human lives through caustic celebration of dehumanisation and degradation whose dignity is disturbingly reduced to the level of ‘collateral damage’. Even to the point that surviving victims are placed in a binary confusion of simultaneously confirming death of a loved one but no longer possess part of his/her humanity for burial.

As the world navigates through the last 2 decades with various unjust wars and unnecessary conflicts of madness, advanced weapons and sophisticated devices have being deployed in nothing short of barbarism and atrocities. Whether the powers that be acknowledge them or not is immaterial. 2011 Libyan (Africa) invasion by North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) under the direction of another African from afar only displayed unending barbarism, horror, atrocities and abominations in full glare of ubiquitous 24 hours media lens until other violence interests redirect them to new theatres. Libya is currently a real-time outcome of NATO barbarism, atrocities and abomination in their war planes, drones and foot-soldiers. Sadly Libya has not survived. Gaza is trying to.

The last few weeks have brought forward wider awareness of a stage on proxy outfit metamorphosis. Of course the metamorphosis has many stages to go as is the case with well-oiled and well strategized proxies. Their existence and operation is the only strategy in town for the violator-in-chief.  (Northern) Nation-states now exist only to make war, it is their raison d’être!

Posted images and motions of beheadings have been termed ‘barbaric’, ‘atrocious’ and ‘inhuman’ by the usual suspects. Yes, 24 hour media lens has become the leveller of different modes of murders for the same global population but carefully select audience(s). Even the bandwagon of illusory bunch of misplaced victims whose origins are the same war theatres and inappropriately labelled ‘moderates’ joined the chorus probably for self-preservation. In the absence of moral comparison talk less of justification of heinous methods of murder (by a knife or by F-15 or by Hellfire drone), no one or government can appropriate the right or power of event description or reallocation of meanings of violence expecting everyone in the English speaking world to follow slavishly.

Conclusion

Evidently these barbaric methods of murder on industrial scale mentioned above are globally geography neutral hence the fitting label of such analysis within ‘critical’ geopolitics. Of course local (regional) bias exist, anyone can be attacked anywhere. What is actually present but dismissed is that smaller proxy metamorphosis run parallel to regressive metamorphoses of the sponsors. It exhibits insecurity about the future which is best left like a sacred cow.

Future is a black box and only reinforcement of past glories and biased acknowledgement or attacks of unstoppable positive changes of other global players suffices. However the erstwhile foundation upon which the hubristic firmaments generating the disconnected conclusions have withered. It matters little what terms are associated with murder or by who made the association or to whom they is made for. Contextual implications of investment in violence and industrial killings may be multi-dimensional but its intergenerational component is immutable.

New geopolitical powers may be on the way to appropriate, refine and reallocate meanings in the violence & industrial murder dictionary. Whether others will follow slavishly is open to questions.

Ebola and Unravelling Global Geopolitical Reconfiguration

Introduction

The recent outbreak of Ebola virus in parts of West and Central Africa has projected a new dynamic in the relationship between African countries on one hand and their collective relationship with the so-called great (fading) powers. While the lethal nature of this virus is undeniable, it presented an opportunity for some global players to consolidate their myopic geopolitical designs on Africa through among other tools sustained misinformation, regressive reinforcement of counter-productive imagery of African peoples and deliberate attack on their own strategic economic interest. Nevertheless some African players have displayed astute and formidable response by eschewing panic and remaining open for business. These responses are the focus of this article.

Beyond Viral Attack

Ebola virus is one of the most lethal diseases to hit the scene. Its potency is amplified by the lack of a viable antidote. Baring noisy responses from the usual suspects, the primary geographies and states where the outbreak reoccur have no reason to avoid investment in drug research for an effective antidote. The idea that the so-called powers including Russia were sending experts to monitor and collect samples from victim-patients who they will not/never cure spoke volumes. 

There is no doubt an opportunity is identified by these powers towards development of vaccine not just to cure the disease but equally to extend their biological weapon stockpile. While some Africans perceive these actions as anti-Africa (which is of course misplaced), Ebola outbreak has real geopolitical implications and Africa in this case is the battleground while Africans will be the desperate and unrewarded guinea peas.

Managed BreakOut

Depending on the timeline of the current outbreak, in each country of outbreak the initial phase was highly localised in the cities or its outskirts and are clearly unmanaged due to poor investment in public service and accessible health care. There is no solid evidence indicating that it is beyond the capacity of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone governments to provide their citizens with adequate preventive health care system. These 3 countries have passed through conflicts of one kind or another in the last 3 decades, with the guns silent the leaders/elite should have invested in durable peace and stability.

The inexcusable absence of health facilities and lack of investment in resources offered few openings for the capitals to manage their expectations in questionable templates. The movement of an Ebola patient from Liberia under Liberian government imprimatur to Nigeria by air is not an accident. Nothing stopped the patient from making a b-line to United States or to Europe if obtaining the biggest attention is the priority. This is a dangerous move by Monrovia despite huge investment and resources made to bring it to stability. Abuja no doubt must take notice of this underhanded diplomatic foray by Monrovia.

However if other variables are fused together, it becomes apparent that some warfare is afoot. Strangely Monrovia allowed herself to be outmanoeuvred in a case of deadly biological weapon thereby threatening Nigeria’s national security. Nigeria has been struggling with weak governments at all levels, she is currently challenging by a non-state military actor and the government is running on diminished legitimacy. 

Considering that Liberia is more than a US client with huge US listening post on her territory, it makes sense that Nigeria is chosen as the first reception point of Ebola package to disconcert, intimidate and further destabilise the country. The patient not only died but other health professionals that attended to him equally died.

It is curious that other foreign doctors who contracted the virus in Sierra Leone and Liberia were evacuated by their countries under appropriate quarantine conditions and are given undisclosed treatment on arrival ensuring their survival.

Rapid Response

While western media doodled with misinformation when Middle East & Russia are not the priority, they continued their well-worn lines of diminution of Africa and African peoples. Nevertheless events started unfolding rapidly as various African governments rose to the challenge. Nigerian government timely marshalled out human and material resources to check, monitor and contain Ebola virus within her territory and entry/exit points. Within the country in places of interest including public and private sphere prevention kits were set up for all visiting citizens to ensure they do minimise potential contact with Ebola.

Huge information drive took over the airwaves across the country. You will be surprised that while Europe including many migrant Nigerians is riding on waves of apocalyptic demise of Africa, Nigerians on ground and other Africans refused to be locked down as they moved about their business. A sharp response and rebuke to the erstwhile masters of the world, the so-called great powers! It was clear that Nigeria was and remains open for business to those genuinely interested in advancing their mutually beneficial proposals/investments.

The main entry/exit airports/seaports/border post were equipped with professionals and equipments to check, monitor and identify and manage any case of Ebola arriving/departing in real time into/from the country. The organisation was excellent, professional and coordinated. There is no way anyone could slip through the net.

Air Opportunity

One of the initial reactions of Europe to Ebola outbreak was assuming positions of negative distraction. Europeans have recently been driven to zealous and obsessive anti-Russian position contrary to their collective strategic interest that Ebola offers little posture beyond knee-jerk reaction. French zeal amplified the knee-jerk action quite expectedly as Paris banned Air France flights to affected countries and flights to France directly coming from those countries.  Full flights were taking off from various European airports to West and Central African destinations filled with mostly Europeans. 

If one reviews French foreign policy on Africa in the last decade, evidence of incompetence abounds, originality of strategy vanishes, rather what become clear is a re-emergence of self-destructive erstwhile British lapdog strategy a la Sarkozy and now Hollande. In these policies and failures, you simply confirm the decline of the French state.

Now a strong African airline took the advantage of the situation as its hub turned into a beehive of flights to various African destinations including Conakry, Monrovia and Freetown. While on a recent rendezvous at this impressive city hub, I was deeply impressed that this great country and her airline seamlessly adapted to pick up profit that the French deliberately abandoned. It also expresses the problematic defining how French elite are disconnected from French people. French elite myopia at home and abroad is increasing at astronomical rate with only political and economic stagnation as dividend.

Africa Open for Business

While North America and Europe have decided their fates in a geographical limited world through violent expansion of interest and imposition by force of arms including pathological obsession with Middle East, Africa being both past and current victim of these designs is limping into a new era. This is contrary to Kissingerian conclusion that Africa is not a space of positive outcomes. Africans in various countries of the continent are working assiduously towards creating stable spaces for economic revival, political consolidation and economic development.

Ebola virus is not a threat to the lofty expectation dismissed by the West. China is part of this burgeoning partnership for nearly 2 decades and the partnership is still going strong. Dividends of the partnership are mutating across the continent with peculiar and unique contradictions albeit in a forward direction. It is rather sad and questionable that Russia is not part of this renaissance. As a great power without global geopolitical design of imposition, it is a combination of naivety and geopolitical miscalculation for Moscow to deprive herself of a strategic economic foothold in Africa.

Conclusion

Ebola virus recent outbreak has exposed weakness of many global players, reinforced the viability of Africa as a space of potential, a space of economic development and a space of progress. Within Africa, many countries with their unique structures are reforming their strategic relationships with various powers based on their unique experiences and expectation. The West is gradually retreating from Africa leaving only US gun and boots while China continues to display strategic depth in engagement, interaction and investment.

Ebola virus outbreak and responses has presented interesting local & geopolitical impacts and rightly place the burden of insight and positive action for future direction on African leaders and elites. So far they are on the right track.