Few days ago US Secretary of State, touched down in Abuja on her latest 11-country tour of Africa. While the whole package was at best shuttle diplomacy unfurled in emergency toward making 'strong statement' to Beijing, it is a distraction from the big meat of excruciating process of attempting regime-change in Damascus. In any case it is instructive to dissect significance of pit-stop, how it came about that Abuja is only fit to receive important ally and not host them; and how this visit fits into the current US African geopolitics.
There is no doubt in any watcher that Africa visit was significant as resident ambassadors were deemed unsuitable to deliver the message indirectly to Beijing from African capitals. US regime is bent on maintaining unchallenged stranglehold on Africa by any means and increased militarisation of diplomacy through US African Command (AFRICOM) inspires effort towards directly re-emphasising conformity to each capital. It is important to observe that Hilary Clinton slotted 3 (laps) stops in West Africa consisting of Dakar, Abuja and Accra. This illustrates the level of importance accorded the region and governments. You do not need to be Formula 1 fan to catch the drift. However in other 2 capitals explicit programmes of hosting were followed strictly were US entourage combined work with pleasure. Other capitals are deemed as full race laps while Abuja is given the derisory role of few 'seconds' pit-stop of dry catching up, refueling, checks and take-off. Tasks unfit for mechanic(s) and deserving of glorified race track operatives!
Different national and international media confirmed that Hilary Clinton spent only 5 hours in Abuja all given to meetings with the President and his coterie. It is a classic demotion and loss of confidence in GEJ/Abuja. One would wonder if they actually sat down. Now some reports suggest that subsequently planned engagements were cancelled during the visit for security reasons. Well, there may be other reasons beyond public display of surprise in situ as the stunt simply indicate US chickening out even in her sole superpower status. By so doing there is erroneous inflation of insecurity to embarrass Abuja as well as giving tacit unwarranted recognition to Boro Haram in the short term. This could blowback on Abuja as Boko Haram may feel emboldened.
Given that State Department collate daily/timely primary security reports on Nigeria it is difficult to react negatively through cancellations in the name of 'perceived' threats in situ while been hosted. Who is the threat, where is it coming from beyond US capacity and how credible is the threat? Security watchers will concur on bungling of reception to spite a host. However there is no doubt the visit is more about (standing) GEJ reading his report card especially on crude oil export security and expected collaboration in AFRICOM including taking lead in Mali. Of course the crux of her post-meeting statements concentrated on insecurity, a humiliation and heavy indictment on GEJ. It carries a strong message that Nigeria is unsafe and unfit to host important delegations.
There is no evidence that State Department feel Abuja is slipping away as its regard for Nigeria as 'bastion of stability' remain unchallenged. Population is in survival mode and politics reduced to survival parades for detailed US role to take centre stage. One can contend that so far as Niger Delta crude oil installations are secure, Boko Haram is insignificant. While China's influence increases, it has insignificant effect on US interest. Africa's handling of geopolitical interests has recently become sophisticated and nuanced with examples in Ethiopia and Angola profitably working between seams of divide demarcating West and Beijing. Survival (political) strategies of many African government diminishes erstwhile rash attention to ideological disparities of gift bearers hence flexible diplomatic operations towards obtaining the best deals from many worlds.
In the case of Nigeria, China's interest will continue to grow because of Beijing's culture of eschewing baggage in relations. As a growing economy with huge population demanding low end goods and basic services, Beijing has free reign in meeting Nigeria expectations through huge contracts and dumping. Crude oil interest is best maximised through fresh upstream activities and downstream sectors investment, in summary US strategic interest in Nigeria is secure in the short term. It must be stated that members of the armed forces are likely to travel to US for further training as this will continue rather than in Beijing.
So Nigeria has received new star on her epaulets as the diminished giant fit to receive and not host the sole superpower. In classic diplomatic race where other capitals are credibly allocated full laps, Abuja can only muster a pit-stop. Another deserved demotion, humiliation and dress down in international relation and loss of eminence in global geopolitical architecture. As far as this pit-stop diplomacy is concerned Nigeria is a wash out and coated with indignity.
No comments:
Post a Comment