Sunday 18 May 2014

Nigeria Bungling Boko Haram Saga with Incoherent Aplomb

Introduction
When finally Abuja was cornered by both internal and external forces on the recent unresolved abduction of secondary school girls by Boko Haram, Abuja continued to flail and tumble with incompetence, incoherence and cluelessness. This development which not only exposes divisions within the federal government has among other things worked in favour of her so-called ‘allies’ and ‘international community’ to be unconstrained in their bid to malign and insults Nigerians. 

No Road to Chibok
While it is easy to mention and hashtag Chibok as a point of interest, it is clear that the so-called western media in their feigning interests have failed to send reporters/correspondents to Chibok to investigate, collaborate and report events from the ground. Rather most of them have their reporters reporting ‘live’ from Abuja, Maiduguri, Lagos, Ibadan & etc. Anywhere but Chibok! The only Nigerian print report dispatched from Chibok in recent weeks was by a freelance journalist, which is a serious indictment on Nigeria's print and electronic media industry. Adding insult to injury BBC UK has made herself unofficial spokesmedia for Abuja reporting on positions which are exclusive of Nigerian media. The situation is exacerbated by headstrong refusal of President Goodluck Jonathan to visit Chibok for ‘security reasons’ while residents/citizens therein confirm rightly that Abuja doesn't care for them.

Neighbour is France
It is important to stress the near-absence of Nigeria’s top diplomat in all these development.  One begins to wonder if a foreign/external affairs ministry/minister exists suggesting another expression of incoherence and inconsistency. To compound the whole mess Abuja fell into the geopolitical trap which refuses to recognise that Nigeria is surrounded by France. Instead of consulting with the Federal Executive Council and coordinate with National Security Committee to consider strategy and policy, GEJ quickly acceded to French President’s suggestion of neighbourhood security summit in Paris. This is what happens when one arrives a party late & isolated only to give away their position and strategic interest. With an agenda and policy set by Paris GEJ only arrives to concede more positions and Nigeria’s strategic interests to the French. Hence Boko Haram has become a tool for advancing French interest in Nigeria! So much for terrorism!

War on Terror
It is on record that United States government failed to advance coherent reasons for the colossal failure of all its institutions to prevent and or respond forcefully in a timely manner to 9/11. For a country that claims so much hard power, technological prowess and military advancement; it beggars belief such an incomplete narrative juxtaposes her readiness to project power anywhere in the world through a mythical ‘war on terror’ at the least opportunity.

With such chance calling in Nigeria and their immediate response/intervention including among other things re-routing drones from Niamey Niger few hundred kilometres away, new reports are emerging that US has closed any chance to share information/intelligence with Abuja. So much for collaboration of ‘allies’! In any case such report which possess rich context offers insight on policy position of US State Department on Abuja while a lot of hot air is blown by so-called pro-US Nigerians. Another report is credited that US regards Nigerian Army as anything but a fighting force. The report went further to stress that sections of Nigeria Army deployed to Borno State refuse to engage the ‘enemy’. If this report is confirmed then one wonders how and why an asymmetrically warfare must be confronted with symmetric options? Is Boko Haram a standing army or does US possess information withheld from Abuja? Who benefits from purported attempt to deny Abuja access to raw surveillance data captured within her territory & air space?

If one considers the background where Nigeria’s defence and security budget may be one of the biggest in the world, then the hollowness of Abuja’s policy consistency and implementation lays bare. An important dimension is the credibility of so-called politicians' actually consulting, coordinating and sharing ideas with service chiefs on defence and security matters. One can easily conclude that service chiefs, some of them studied in US, and are not taken on board. Relate back to Nigeria’s hurried and uncoordinated response to Mali’s debacle where Nigerian Army served under French Command and notice a pattern of inconsistency including apparent display of Nigeria’s institutional weakness.

Presidential Spokespersons’ InfoErrors
As President Jonathan persists in dogmatic underwhelming of communication in English, the positive opportunities presented by Boko Haram’s latest action are squandered in spectacular fashion. This is not moderated by ineffective Presidential Media circus led by Dr Reuben Abati. When asked about the abducted girls before the media, President Jonathan rejected nuance, professionalism and diplomacy to further expose his inadequacy with a naked ‘I-don’t-know’ response.  Nothing prevented him from stressing enormous effort of all institutions towards capturing and returning the girls alive. What stops President Jonathan from responding to questions in Ijaw or whatever is his first language?

After taking a detour from Chibok for the questionable summit in Paris for 'security reasons', you wonder if the Presidential Media team actually appreciate the gravity of the situation and the complex world we are currently living in.  A simple attribution of change of plans to tight schedule would have sufficed. Of course it is too late to avoid labelling all Nigerians with such tenacity of incompetence, incoherence and unprofessionalism at the highest level. Nigeria we hail thee!

Dialogue – Negotiate
There is no evidence that all dialogues ends up becoming negotiations however negotiations doesn't always take place between equal partners. In the case of Nigeria dialogue is a mask meaning different things and or potential engagement with Boko Haram. The narrative for or against negotiation depends on or rather exposes the latent network of local and international interests handling, supporting, supplying and sustaining Boko Haram campaign of violence.

Despite shouting the mantra of ‘we don’t negotiate with so and so’, the weak and fragmented cannot negotiate from a position of strength. There is no empirical evidence that negotiating with so and so opens doors for repeat performance of the previous negotiation contentions.  In a highly networked world where non-state actors especially insurgent groups who are not independent of states, an insurgent group is a front of disgruntled opponents engaged in politics by other means. In any case Nigeria is not in a strong position to dictate terms to Boko Haram as it is institutionally weak, internally incoherent, fragmented and compromised.

The day after

The current saga will pass hopefully with our sisters safely released. New developments will emerge on how Nigerians engage with their reality of existence. Among others the old tools and methods of national discourse and geopolitical dependency driven by weakness will be challenged vigorously regardless of Nigeria’s status. There is an opportunity for demystifying “North” Nigeria and fragment its objective as an inter-generational metageographical template of political/economic solution. Equally, dormant and digressive discourses on “North” Nigeria religious brand which is exacerbated by other Nigerians’ unreformed & unreconstructed analytical methods must be overthrown. 

“North” Nigeria is neither a geographic, religious, ethnic, political or economic monolith. Until other Nigerians realise that new methodologies are required in engaging and understanding “North” Nigeria, a contextual and nuanced approach to unique peoples, unique experiences, unique times and unique histories; then the limbo continues. Colonial narratives are unhelpful in grappling post-colonial political evolutions.

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