Fuzzy Variables in Iran – P5+1 Nuclear Negotiations

Introduction

The nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Washington DC has dragged on to its final day 24/11/2014. In the interim both sides have sized each order up and made strategic calculations regardless of the negotiation end game. While Anglo mainstream media dominate the information war with misinformation, a number of variables missing from the geopolitical equation indicate that in the long term, unfolding forces will favour Tehran’s position. Select treatment of these factors/variables is presented below.

US Internal Incoherence

Credit must be given to interlocutors on Tehran and Washington DC sides that pressured and successfully convinced both parties to agree and engage in negotiations. One must equally express clear surprise that the negotiations lasted the current duration without complications. It is a victory of sort that these negotiations took place however it will be myopic to anticipate a comprehensive agreement between 2 hegemons of pride and juggernauts of pig-headedness.

One of the fault lines of potential failure of US position is fissures within its political leadership with clear absence of coherence, diminution of national interest below intangible proxies and lack of dedication to defining and maintaining unsubordinated US position. Despite all the wealth of human and material resources, current US leadership is divided to pursue a consistent position in foreign affairs. The gap between the presidency, the legislature and interest groups is so huge that prospective opponent is bound to receive conflicting and confusing messages that only succeeds in hardening minds in Tehran.

Even within the narrow field of domestic political participation, between and within Republican and Democratic Parties, various dynamic views continue to evolve with no concrete structure, dominance of immature discourses and above all detest any room for generating a package of national interest limited to US aspiration. Rather US position is represented as an evolving amalgam of internal and external interests which more or less hold Washington DC hostage on its hamstring foreign policy.  

Economy stupid

States need positive economic growth and progressive economic development in peace time to successfully engage in complex international relations project vis-a-vis hard/soft power projection. The last few years has exposed US economy through deliberate mismanagement, myopic deployment of narrow interest policy and illusory pursuit of unbalanced geopolitical projects. Despite possessing potentials for dominating the global economy, the adoption of counter-productive and regressive policies is gradually eroding US influence which manifest domestically in growing unemployment, huge underemployment and declining productivity.

Externally, illusory pursuit of global domination through deployment of hard power with declining economic growth domestically has contributed to the rise of other economies befitting massively from producing for and targeting US market. These outflows of capital from US to emerging economies without serious counter-balance/moderation diminish her ability to manoeuvre in the world stage and Tehran is watching with keen interest.

Abuse of economic warfare through misapplication of economic sanctions against Tehran succeeded to the point of eliminating Tehran from direct US attack and opening opportunities for her engagement with other capitals. For any economy imposed with US sanctions, US products and US currency are the first victims contrary to western media spin. Other powerful currencies naturally fill the vacuum. It is obvious that Tehran’s bilateral trade and balance of payment in basket of currencies is boosted by US economic warfare. Ongoing sanction by US against Russia has eliminated Visa and MasterCard as payment system players with Moscow’s development of home-grown alternative. In addition the SWIFT international payment system, a US dominates financial architecture is currently being replicated by alternative structure which may be favourable to Iran.   

Europe Divide Weakness

Nearly 2 generations after the 2^nd world war it is evident that Europe remains to all intents and purposes a colony of United States. The potent political weakness, absence of robust geopolitical identity in a changing world and disappearance of a molecule of independence has convinced Tehran that not only is the US the only player of stature in the West, that European capitals are unworthy of trust and dependence especially London and Paris. Emerging divisions in Europe with regard to Russia relations only allows Tehran room to review erstwhile policies.

Lack of political ambition and poverty of leadership has effectively eliminated Europe as a serious progressive player in a rapidly changing world that includes Iran. Ubiquitous and under-performance of Berlin is a testament of geopolitical weakness in the global arena. One must not forget that US military bases are still in effect in Germany post-cold war unification. Such weakness and division allow Tehran room to exploit favourable interests elsewhere towards meeting her strategic objectives.

East Drift

In view of issues raised on US under-performance on the global economy, members of the Global South are emerging as the new economic powerhouses including China, India, Brazil and so on. These and many other economies are not only growing economically but geopolitically as well which cannot be dismissed, reversed or ignored by United States. The recent past APEC, ASEAN and G20 summits that all took place in Asia sent a single message; Asia/Global South has arrived. With Russia already on a favourable seat on the non-Atlantic and non-European configurations, these constellations of geopolitical power possess potentials for accommodating Tehran.

One must appreciate that the gap between United States and Iran is not about possession of nuclear technology or potential acquisition of nuclear weapons. The crux of the matter is Tehran desire to appreciate in the ranks of human, technological and resource developments. The idea of limiting, containing or controlling Tehran’s development ambition by United States resonates negatively & strongly in the formerly colonised Global South coupled with increasing evidence of US undermining effort among various Global South capitals. Most Global South countries will never challenge US but are fully aware that only in equitable development can their societies be stabilised.

Devoid of coherent position on every issue, Global South members are disposed to seek alternative routes collectively or otherwise for economic growth, economic development and geopolitical engagement. Concentration of global wealth and power in this group of countries only limits ability of United States to suppress and emasculate Iran.

Cuba, an island in the Caribbean, has survived 50+ years of US sanctions and is unlikely to give up her independence and sovereignty.  Iran can afford to wait, Tehran can afford to do nothing, can afford to manage stalled negotiations and bid her time with the emerging geopolitical heavyweights in the Global South since the new wind of geopolitical reconfiguration is blowing in that direction. It will be a realistic conjecture for Tehran to walk away from the deal which will be a perfect epithet of US era and a favourable signpost of East/Global South initiation on the world stage.  

Changing ‘Middle East’

The epicentre of US foreign policy attention and interventions in the last 50 years is the ‘Middle East’.  Apparently the reason for multiple interventions is inadmissible US policy failures. Years of opportunities for resolving some of the issues are dismissed with expectation in deployment of military force and advanced weapon systems. Evidence of weakness in the United States geopolitical project is manifesting in ‘Middle East’. The list is numerous to count but they include failure to contain Iran, failure to moderate Tel Aviv, failure to support feasible Palestinian self-determination, failure to justify/explain Iraq destruction and current inability to destroy & regime change in Syria.

With defying solidity in Tel Aviv, intransigence in Ankara and profound uncertainty in Riyadh; US is leading a house built with cards. It is very clear to Washington DC that an emerging Middle East is a surprise and an uncertainty it wants to certainly control strategically but is equally aware that this cannot be accomplished without Tehran. With Iran as the sole stable territory in a sea of intergenerational instability, the die cast. Iran is not going to do Gorbachevian error/naivety via toxic doses of glasnost and perestroika in casting off allies in Hezbollah and Damascus for illusion while it is surrounded.

With United States unwilling or unable to deal with the above named capitals and their diverging interests, Tehran may be best placed to limit concessions, delay and rejuvenate her strategic interest to fully align with the East in the long run while Washington DC continues to battle the demons it unleashed in Tel Aviv, Riyadh, Baghdad, Erbil and Ankara. US State Department will have her hands filled.

Conclusion

In the final analyses, Iran – US nuclear negotiations can only be comprehensively addressed when both capitals focus on their sole strategic interest rather than one carrying multiple baggages of irrelevant policies, expectations and design with time regressing aggressively.