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| 2nd Tier Sub-National Map of Nigeria |
Introduction
As the year is closing in one is
apt to review Nigeria’s foreign policy performance and if possible project
distinct patterns and relationship that may potentially emerge from next year.
This is extremely important since 2015 will usher in a new administration which
may potentially offer business-as-usual regardless whether the incumbent is
returned or not; or trigger new adjustment in foreign policy posture also regardless
of the national election outcomes. This article will use some of the current
foreign policy files to make informed guesses taking into consideration unique
domestic conditions.
Charity Begins at Home
Opening a European newspaper in
the last few years presents you with a certainty; austerity. The word
‘austerity’ is now a byword for Europe or the so-called developed North
illustrating a mask for political ineptitude, intellectual poverty and cultural
regression. This presentation is complemented with renewed attention to Russia.
So now ‘Austerity’ and ‘Russia’ are the current raison d’être for Europe.
Similar search in South American
media gives a distinct flavour of confidence and positive self-identity. A
significant item is the persistent rhetoric that their individual and
collective sovereignties no longer correlate with ‘US backyard’. Washington DC
move to open relations with Havana is a strong testament of Latin America
confidence and US weakness. China and India can both be summarised in the word;
(economic) deals. There is no suggestion
that singularity of word representation indicates linearity or simplicity
rather that they conveys a positive vibe that dominates governance in the mentioned
territories.
In the case of Nigeria; empty,
shallow or personality (Godfather) politics showcases. I don’t know why there
are no Godmothers in Nigeria’s personality politics but that is for another
piece. This presentation in reality and in fact masks and suffocates potential
positive interaction, intellectual development and positive political/economic
investment/development. It foretells the story of a troubled domestic policy
where apparently policies do not drive politics. Only ontological poverty
mostly motivates engagement in politics despite rhetoric. While interest in
policy cannot be dismissed expectant hope of positive outcome for citizens borders
between resignation, apathy and taking a long view. This is the summary of ‘bruised
and battered’ population for nearly 2 generations.
Taking the above paragraph into
consideration it becomes obvious that effective foreign policy runs on the back
of cohesive internal affairs backed-up with viable political & economic
governance/implementation with all the complexities associated with it. In the
case of Nigeria post-military national politics have miserably failed to
trigger serious effort against regressive actions. If a few indicators are
reviewed it becomes clear that domestic issues remain sub-standard; transport
infrastructure, accountability on state/national resources, quality of
education graduates, internal security, process management in private and
public sectors.
2 words summarises geographically-nested
low national performance: corruption and waste. Corrosive corruption and waste
of human & material resources at industrial scale! With these set of
regressive characteristics Nigeria is unable to project power coherently
internally talk less of externally. The country cannot and is not perceived
positively even at the base level of public diplomacy, and she becomes isolated
in a complex world undergoing massive geopolitical reconfiguration. In
addition, Nigeria is placed in an (apparent) immovable position unfortunately
assigned to it by Western geopolitical power led by United States that condemns
her to the status of ineffectual client (vassal), a geopolitical consumer and a
puerile player even in her own sub-region.
Select Points of Contention
Taking into consideration that
enhanced domestic affairs and robust internal security is yet to emerge in
Nigeria, Abuja can be forgiven from using confidence in internal affairs as
springboard to commence full spectrum review of Nigeria’s foreign policy,
posture and power projection capacities. International changes, global
geopolitical reconfigurations and modification of global economic/financial
architecture should be serious incentives for Abuja to get a grip. Above all in
what could have been her ‘backyard’ serious developments are emerging
potentially favouring cost-reduced expansion of influence.
The select areas of consideration
include West Africa sub-region, relationship with OPEC, relationship with
United States and relationship with China.
West Africa
Nigeria is seating on the eastern-most part of the sub-region while Cape Verde is on the most western point. Geopolitically the area of interest includes
all the territories, rich mineral resources therein, airspace and continental shelves of member-countries of Economic Community of West African States
(ECOWAS/CEDEAO). It is dangerous to be misled by the fact that Nigeria is the
most populous, possess the biggest economy and the biggest market. See map
below.
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| ECOWAS Member-States |
In reality while the variables
unravel incoherently in the region over the decade, coherent strategic posture
has failed to gain traction. The loss of traction in Nigeria’s ability to
project power in the sub-region in a coherent manner increased with the exit of
military regimes. There are a number of
reasons for this development. The defeat of US-backed South Africa forces and
UNITA in Angola by Cuban-backed Angolan forces, the collapse of the apartheid
regime in South Africa and subsequent decolonisation of Namibia closed the
picture of anti-colonisation struggle. A subtext in the demise of cold war is
equally significant. These has been the raison d’être of Nigeria’s foreign
policy and its exhaustion offered a recipe for change which was not seriously
considered. Accompanying the Pan-African posture was the benign pass to (France)
Paris to dominate affairs in her former colonies of West Africa.
In any case Nigeria till present
continues to perceive a chuck of West Africa as France ‘backyard’ even as Paris is
tumbling down the tubes of geopolitical weakness and confusion. See map below. In foreign policy and
geopolitics circles, analysts are apt to regard France as Nigeria’s true
neighbour as all the neighbours are former French colonies. While Lagos and
then Abuja continues to extend its statecraft specifically on Anglophone
countries which was maximised in her sponsorship of ECOWAS Monitoring Group
(ECOMOG) during the Liberian civil, there is a constrain in flexing muscle
against perceived French interest.
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| Nigeria's Neighbours - France |
Another reason for this constrain include
Lagos/Abuja’s position as a client state of United States within a nested hierarchy
of geopolitical network. At a higher level of that network, French interest
took precedence over Nigeria natural designs. French position is a compensation
for losing WW2 allowing her room to maintain her sphere of influence without
interfering with Washington DC global designs. Perfect example of this network
interest is the nomination/occupation of French citizen always as International
Monetary Fund Managing Director. Seating
on the West African front of French interest was a linchpin positioned in Cote
d’Ivorie’s President Felix Houphoet Boigny.
Cote d’Ivorie was not only
advancing French interest but also United States strategic interest hence her
proactive contribution to the coup that overthrew Ghanaian President Dr Kwame
Nkrumah in 1966. French interest projected through her geo-economic design of
domination was crucially tied in the currency/monetary union between former
French franc in the currency used by West African francophone countries; CFA.
Nigeria’s room to maneuver as United States client in the sub-region was
limited in principle at the time.
Fast-forward to this decade with
highlights of the past including end of cold war, emergence of European Union
and associated austerity of Europe; new opportunities are potentially opening
up in West Africa. For starters all the francophone countries have modest
economies of various bands in ‘struggling’ status.
A number of situations have
emerged that present new and interesting geopolitical and foreign policy
challenges to the erstwhile dominant players in the region. Some of the significant outcomes are mentioned
below;
- West Africa remains a richly resourced part of the world in human, mineral, land and marine/hydrological resources
- Cote d’Ivorie is currently a shell of its former status with unstable politics and economy after over a decade of civil war which ended in part with French military intervention under ex-President Sarkozy
- Various parts of West Africa were and are bedevilled by conflict, instability & biological warfare (Ebola) such as Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea and Guinea Bissau
- With France accession to EU, CFA is decoupled from Franc and in addition French economy is facing depression and will continue to face difficult times in the short and medium terms
- With United States power ebbing away with rising China in Africa vacuums are emerging in the sub-region
Relationship with OPEC
Nigeria has been a member of Oil
Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC) for a number of decades. One of the
presidential aspirants was an Oil Minister in the 1970s. What is OPEC’s
relevance to Nigeria in the current geopolitical climate? Does OPEC have
serious leverage in determining high prices for oil dominated economies like
Nigeria?
The ongoing deliberate price depression
is a testament of real weakness of OPEC in a series of contracting
performances. The last time OPEC displayed grit, stature and confidence as an
organisation was when President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela rallied member-states for concerted action. Production was cut, prices rallied and sale of OPEC crude
oil in other/basket of currency became a possibility. The current price tumble
deployed as an economic weapon by an OPEC member (to counter another state that
formerly deployed energy weapon) against other member-states strategic interest
is dangerous. Of course the question
will always be asked of the reasons behind poor diversification of Nigerian
economy away from oil and or how accounts of previous sales/investments are
reinvested. They are legitimate questions which border on both strategic
interest and national security.
Saudi Arabia’s [US ally] action of
deliberate crude oil prices depression delegitimizes justification of OPEC existence and Abuja should commence considering its membership as well as
potentially selling crude oil in a basket of currencies. Saudi Arabia’s action
of over-production which Abuja endorsed in the last OPEC meeting is regressive,
treasonous and threatens Nigeria’s national security. Of course Riyadh’s action
is motivated by demand from Washington DC, it is doubtful that the policy was
coordinated prior to implementation with Abuja. New/subsequent administrations
should address this issue with great care and serious attention.
Relationship With United
States
It is important to state at the
outset that relationship between Nigeria and United States is unequal. This has
nothing to do with ethics or morality. It is an understatement that the
relationship is best captured by master-servant analogy despite diplomatic
niceties placing Abuja on client status. It is also important to construct into the argument Nigeria's client status to Washington DC include vagaries of subordination to European powers in particular as all European capitals are subservient to United States. Any interested Nigerian or foreign policy observer who has experienced first-hand
the might of US power closely should ask the question, why would a US official
on Capitol Hill border with Nigeria? The observer should pose the question at
the height of US power and at the outset of its weakening.
Leaving aside the questions, attention is focused on Nigeria-US relationship from the Clinton presidency which
effectively allocated Nigeria a position and status of sub-regional ‘policeman’which remains unchanged.[link para 27 -31]. However attention must be focused on flickers of
realism emerging from Nigeria’s diplomats after many years of pretending an
equal relationship. The idea that Abuja
can robustly & effectively deflect major US foreign policy is a pipe-dream.
Nigeria is seriously constrained by regressive self-identity and poverty of
initiative that blind her in formulating realistic understanding of US policy towards her. In a sense Nigeria foreign policy elite are star-struck borne of
unchallenged absorption of dehumanising education and biased information of
imposed worldview and assimilation of glorified US objectives.
The perpetuation of near-colonial
narrative/knowledge continues in the unreconstructed negative attitude to local
history, dehumanisation of African identity and unquestioned glorification of
everything Western/English contextualised in US ‘exceptionalism’. Truth shows
that US was a slave republic that denied full humanity to Africans as a matter
of law for over 300 years. Apart from
1976 when General Murtala Muhammed challenged Dr Henry Kissinger on the merit
and veracity of US exceptionalism cum suggested African irrelevance, no other
Nigerian leaders have ever had a formalised defiance/defence of Nigeria’s strategic
interest vis-a-vis Washington DC. With rising China and other emerging
economies in Africa, US highest priority on Nigeria is security of access to
crude oil and other strategic mineral resources. Beyond this point Nigeria
commands very low priority in Washington DC.
Curiously Nigeria has no ethnic
interlocutor in the United States politics. The Black Congressional Caucus (BCC)
has transformed from a relevant ethnic power block into accessory to Washington
DC aspiration for full-spectrum violence-oriented global domination including
Nigeria and as such US foreign policy issues relating to Africa command less of
their attention. DRC and Rwanda crises are examples of BCC puerile performance
hence cannot be counted upon by Abuja. Compare them to Israeli, Irish, Armenian and Arab lobbies!
So the following questions are to
be considered for future relationship with Washington DC;
- Does Nigeria want to remain a client of US and on what conditions?
- Does Nigeria want to remain the sub-regional ‘policeman’ and under what conditions?
- In a geopolitically reconfiguring world, where should US be in relation with other emerging geopolitical powers?
- What does Nigeria hope or expected from US strategically and geopolitically in the medium and long terms?
- What is Nigeria’s strategic interest with United States deployment of USAFRICOM?
Furthermore, these questions are
belied by emerging evidence that Boko Haram phenomenon is far more complex. Case
in point is Abuja’s allegation that former Burkina Faso President Compaore was sponsoring weapon/equipments transfer to Boko Haram. Ouagadougou, a staunch US
client shrugged this allegation. The recent inconsistencies by United States to
share intelligence on Boko Haram and recently reported refusal to sell
weapons/equipments to Abuja on the red herring of Nigeria’s human right records
add fuels to suspicion.
Complementary to these
developments is the apparent meltdown of French power/interest in West Africa
which is transforming the geopolitical landscape enabling her displacement by
United States. Call it de-imperialisation of France! There is a US drone base in Niamey, Niger. There is another US military base in Ouagadougou, Burkina
Faso. These US military investments present evidence of gradual physical encirclement in addition to cyber and remote sensing capabilities projections deployed against Africa particularly Nigeria.
Apart from making diplomatic
statements, there is absence of coherent policy and consistent response to threats
emerging from US relationship. US interest on Nigeria and Africa in general
have moved from benign ambivalence to full-spectrum deployment through
militarisation of the continent (resources) as part of the strategic Asian pivot to contain China. 2011 Libyan invasion by United States via NATO
summarised Washington DC disposition towards Africa and Nigeria in particular.
These developments make for sober reflection which Abuja is expected to counter
very seriously.
Relationship with China
Chinese relationship will be enigmatic for a number of reasons. For the past 2 generations Nigeria’s
political, economic, intellectual formation and world-view has been
predominantly western. It is more or less an extension of intellectual colonial
enterprise. The implication of this world-view is the instinctive dealing of
complexity in socio-political and geopolitical diversity/difference through
western lens. Such lens is bound to trigger colossal failure. The richness of
pre-colonial geopolitical/diplomatic heritage is lost on current Nigeria
post-colonial project.
China is operating on 2 distinct
levels. One as a developing country sharing brutal colonial experience with
countries of the Global South as part of geopolitical and geoeconomic
strategies towards expanding her influence and maximise profit. Simultaneously
it is the factory of the world since for the West basic manufacturing has lost
its shine. Only high-end goods suffice to be produced in their territories! On
another level Beijing is playing with the big boys with ‘Peaceful Rise’ and is
apparently winning in the short and medium terms. With well crafted foreign
policy and robust geopolitical focus, China is gradually altering erstwhile geopolitical, geo-security and geo-economic architectures.
How does Nigeria react to this
development? Does Nigeria want to swap subservience to one geopolitical power for another? With
a new geopolitical power emerging without military defeat of the former, what
is Abuja’s game plan with both Washington DC and Beijing? In the short-term
there is an apparent need to accommodate Chinese needs for mineral resources
paid for at world market prices. On the other hand Beijing is bullish with
oriental subtleties and to an extent has modest access to Abuja. There is a
problem with this situation because Nigeria’s intellectual burden and worldview
forestalls independent assessment. Nigeria cannot freely make strategic choice unless
Abuja redefines her status/role in a US led hierarchy/network.
China rightly perceived economic
opportunities in Nigeria and have invested in various sections of the national
economy as well as fund major contracts with the attendant mobilisation of
thousands of Chinese citizens. With Nigeria’s rich resources and income
streams, what does Abuja need Beijing for? Has Nigeria fully explored Beijing’s real
economic and geopolitical weakness vis-a-vis Africa? Is Nigeria prepared for
Beijing shedding of her ‘developing country’ card and its implications? The
viability of people-to-people and business-to-business between the 2 countries
is growing astronomically but the implications are already manifesting with
massive dumping of cheap substandard/harmful products from China. Nigeria’s
local industrial and manufacturing capabilities are already hurting with poor
government response.
What is Nigeria’s strategic plan
to utilise Beijing to nullify/moderate Washington DC design on her and on the
whole of Africa? China’s influence in Africa is geopolitically anchored in
Pretoria through their intercontinental alliance in BRICS with Brazil, Russia
and India.
Conclusion
There should be a lot in the
in-tray of new/subsequent administrations. For all the rhetoric on the ‘giant
of Africa’ Nigeria remains a potential power devoid of real cohesive and
consistent power. The absence of cohesive and progressive internal affair drawn
from a stable economy, massive user-friendly infrastructure, efficiency
transportation systems, high quality education and cost-effective bureaucracy
all contribute in limiting any attempt to pursue robust foreign policy and
power projections. Probably as stated at
the outset, the viable way to pursue foreign policy is to invest in stable and
robust domestic affairs as a viable launch pad. Else Nigeria for all the
goodwill in the world will remain a laughing stock and lightweight among the
comity of nations. No amount of football tournament participation will change
such negative perception.
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