Saturday 17 January 2015

Contradictions of Geostrategy in a Densely Networked World

It is a known fact and policy that the main plank of United States geostrategy against China is containment. It is called Asian Pivot but what does it mean? How is it perceived by ordinary person on the various national streets? Does it imply that United States will hold China at the throat including threatening her strategic interests across the world until Beijing begs for forgiveness or admits inferiority? Does it mean that China is too dependent on and cannot do without United States?

Evidence suggest something different. US geostrategy of China containment is designed and implemented based on many assumptions/variables. The main variable of implementation is through projection of hard (military) power. How it works is difficult to confirm. How the impact is measured is open to various interests and the nature of their interests/motivations. Another option is influencing China's neighbours but US is economically weak to pull it off in the short and long terms.

Since 1972 Nixon-Mao Summit, relationship between the 2 countries has been growing by leaps and bounds albeit very complex nevertheless they need each other. This is the realpolitik! US also committed to non-aggression pact not to invade China. US 1% realised that Chinese population is a huge market to be tapped in the long term. Many strategies emerged including investing in China for greater returns, another is through dumping of consumer and high end goods on the Chinese markets. 

US de-linking of the dollar from gold and the strategic master-stroke of protecting Saudi Arabia in return for Riyadh (OPEC) sale of crude oil only in US dollars and also Riyadh's investment of profit in US banks flooded US economy with cheap capital. This is an important footnote in understanding and appreciating US engagement with China over time from a geoeconomic point of view. Peter Gowan's The Global Gamble Washington's Faustian Bid for World Dominance offers a comprehensive treatment.

A simple fact is that governments are to an extent an instrument for advancing 1%'s interest, a tool of wealth accumulation by any means necessary including perpetual conflicts. Hence the geopolitics of de-industrialisation and enthronement of capital pursued by Reagan regime which implied hollowing out industrial heartlands and relocation of US based industries to China which has cheaper operating costs. Of course initial profits and later manufactured products will be flooded on US market via entities like Walmart. Another impact is that production and manufacturing of basic goods in the US market will be prohibitive, hurting domestic producers and eliminating jobs in millions. 1% are the winners!

If US attempt to contain China via Asia Pivot while Chinese consumer products dominate US market that it is difficult to find a US made consumer product, how then should geopolitical power projection of both capitals be defined? It becomes the case that geopolitics and geostrategy are complex beasts with no clear realistic presentation between potent powers. Mind you China purchased nearly a trillion dollars worth of US Treasury Bills which can be disposed at Beijing's convenience in principle. Rather these policies and assumptions are loaded with some unreconcilable contradictions. 

In the face of interlocking and networked interests between the countries, observers and analysts must admit that the era of zero-sum game of superiority/inferiority is defunct. Clear superiority/inferiority barometer is not only obsolete rather complex relationships of geopolitics can be viewed from co-dependency perspective of a network connections, its hubs and clusters. As networks cannot be totally destroyed but rather weakened. (US) Geopolitics and geostrategy policy makers must admit that total dominance of one power on another power is impractical in the 21st century and beyond.  

This is best captured in the video below through its complex and contradictory interactions between both countries and their peoples from the strategic to the individual levels. Ordinarily the video is harmless but the geopolitics/geostrategy nuggets and footprints are inevitable to perceive.

Happy Viewing! (Video may not open)

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