Potential fall out from alleged Boko Haram attack on Emir of Kano

Introduction

Media was dominated few weeks ago with reports of alleged attack by members of Boko Haram on the Emir of Kano, Alhaji Ado Bayero. The reports claimed that while he was unhurt members of his entourage were not so lucky. While this report is disputable, I’ll concentrate on the potential implications for political forces in northern Nigeria and Nigeria in the short and long term. In doing so I’ll attempt to tease out unique dynamics over time that placed Emir of Kano in questionable position since the 1960s.

Northern Politics

That Boko Haram has become media sensation in Nigeria is no longer news. One will conclude that their media prowess has amplified to attract mainstream western media which in itself is serious and worrying. Nevertheless the events that brought Boko Haram into public discourse has a long unique trajectory which is unfortunately dismissed as a usual phenomenon. These events are part of political tools ad methodologies used by the northern Hausa-Fulani oligarchy to successful pull the strings of the state.

From a spatial perspective it now evident that the actions and methods of Boko Haram are restricted within the territorial space coterminous to the erstwhile Northern Nigeria region. It is also instructive that while this area has undergone population and cultural dynamics since 1960, the political structures and operators remain to all intents and purpose monolithic and cohesive.

From internal political dimension, this is an area formerly under the guardianship of the late Northern Region Premier, Sarduna of Sokoto, Alhaji Ahmadu Bello, a proponent of the strategy of ruling Nigeria from ‘sand to the sea’. There is no evidence that this dictum has suffered denudation of late if you pay less attention on who occupies the head of government/state.

Northern hand of Federal instrument

The arrival of 4^th republic under former President Obasanjo opened up a new era in opaque Nigerian politics. Among other things the northern states positively and successfully played strong cards on devolution of law with regard to Sharia. It is important for political watchers to realize that there are few areas of the ‘federal republic’ that is federal indeed. Just a theoretical construction for finally valorization of the state! The successful establishment of Sharia Law as the primary basis of mediation and litigation in Northern region is a testament of political astuteness and strategic foresight.  Only if it solved all underlying problems!

It is rather surprising that this legal and constitutional victory which should have been significant pointer in ‘fighting the war by other means’ did not materialize. The implications are huge for the northern political machine and northern elite in general.

 Emir’s Hegemony

While the Emir of Kano is a powerful political and religious figure in the north and Nigeria, he is on a lower pecking order whose apex is occupied by the Sultan of Sokoto. While I ply my trade denying the veracity of alleged Boko Haram attack, my bearing of this conclusion come from history. Compared to other parts of the country, northern region political machine has remained consistent and united. Dissent is not tolerated or rewarded. To suggest that rouge political and religious elements can institute, execute and wreak havoc across their patrimony without oversight is myopic and delusional.

History has recorded and confirmed that Northern region is a space of genocide and massacre since independence with sustained periodic annihilation of innocent citizens who ascribed and achieved it as home. In the name of politics, religion or both, 1000s have been killed over generations in the northern region with no one brought to account. One of those who always give assurance of safety in his territory is Alhaji Ado Bayero not least the assurance he gave to the late General Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu before and during the events that led to the establishment of Republic of Biafra.

From the fall of Biafra Republic to the present, northern instituted massacres have continued unabated including in Kano and Emir of Kano has not supported its cessation or prosecution of suspects. Many families from around Nigeria have suffering bodily and material losses under Alhaji Ado Bayero’s leadership without recourse to justice in a court of law. To suggest that Emir of Kano has blood on his hands is an understatement. One can only surmise that Boko Haram is another name in the litany of northern instituted violence in her unique pattern of self-regeneration.

Implications

One can wishfully and rightly expect Boko Haram to fade away in time when its masters decide to pull the leash. We have observed similar successful management of cyclical violent proxies in Eastern DR Congo by Rwanda itself a proxy of United States. Boko Haram is a violent proxy whose identity is not very clear at the moment. Nevertheless if the alleged attempt on Alhaji Ado Bayero is true, then this is the first time the Hausa-Fulani oligarchy is receiving a body blow from internal quarters. It can be interpreted as the outset of gradual erosion of northern political machine towards elevation of a new political force. Therefore Emir of Kano and his superior, Sultan of Sokoto may not be smiling after all or they are playing double game of strategic realignment. It is difficult to discern.

On the one hand the usually consistent and all-encompassing power base is threatened from within by a potentially powerful group who are determined to use the same methods that assured erstwhile unity to split or overthrow the current political machine.  In any case there are 2 folds of threats; one against current northern political machine/elite and the one against Nigeria. This is a dynamic which is bound to change and or reverse. It is difficult to conjecture Boko Haram’s success without the current northern power machine/elite. On the other hand, they seem to be plying under unseen hands towards reconfiguration of (Africa) current power structures similar to objectives of US AFRICOM.

The longevity of Boko Haram confirmed it as an organised group with coherent theory of domination, have well-funded local and international support, well-established military hardware supply lines, expertise in deploying explosives, understanding of low-intensity conflict and gradual mastering of the spatial underpinnings of urban warfare. The unseen and unknown guides/masters may be playing for time awaiting events to drag out for an opportunity to finally claim their booty. The determination of this new group who combine effective use of media for maximum impact and deployment of fear confirms an understanding that absence of the state is not just an incentive but a comparative advantage for supplanting it.

Geopolitical Pivots

If Boko Haram is a threat to citizens it is understandable.  However in the face of mounting evidence of state’s reluctance to deal effectively with northern institute religious armies of violence, why should Boko Haram be an exception. If innocent citizens for the last 2 generations have suffered genocide and massacres without Nigeria state interventions and relief, why should these citizens expected positive change while Boko Haram runs riot? To all intents and purpose, the arrival of Boko Haram is another confirmation of Nigeria as a genocidal state. Does Nigeria deserve to be saved? What is the justification for such proposition?

As a potential harbinger of further destabilisation, events in North Africa in the last few years should be a guide. Western mainstream media has commenced paying attention to Boko Haram with armchair ‘experts’ already suggesting links between Boko Haram and foreign Islamist assets. Libya should be a perfect example of where interest of great powers and Islamists converged to generate maximum celebration of violence and dismantling of a state. United States AFRICOM core objective is ensured in the destruction of Libya with effective deployment of Islamist and NATO.

Apart from Libya possessing large quantities of fresh water and crude oil, there were billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese and Russian contracts. To suffocate national independence and check Beijing’s influence, Libya was reduced to rubble and reverted to Stone Age.

Similar event is repeated with panache of stage management in Mali where huge deposits of crude oil, natural gas and gold are confirmed. Chinese investment in Mali is substantial to trigger alarm in Washington DC. It is not surprising that Islamists here used again as fodder of destabilisation to enable deployment of foreign troops in another plank toward recolonisation of Africa. If Mali has only fields of broccoli or geology of useless laterite no Rafael bombers will overfly her airspace with French boots on the ground via US airlifting capacity. One should not forget that Mali has been under US radar and compliance for at least a decade with her armed forces trained by both United States and France. Nigeria’s deployment of troops to Mali maybe dress-rehearsal of what may materialise eventually in her case.

While Nigeria possess crude oil among other natural resources as part of US strategic interests secure, Chinese investment in Nigeria is growing in the last decade albeit in the non-crude oil sector. Nigeria is the biggest geopolitical prize on the continent. The size of Chinese investments and Beijing’s hunger for mineral resources among others things could be the trigger for unleashing Boko Haram as proxy to displays pitiable state response and final call for foreign intervention. If this is plausible, then there is no doubt that the northern power machine/elite including the Emir of Kano are in pole position to reap benefits of potential emergence from final recolonisation of Nigeria.