Enhanced encirclement of the Federal Republic

One of the first things Nigerian foreign policy experts got right immediately after independence is recognition that the country is encircled by France. This was evidenced on the fact that only Guinea under Late President Sekou Toure rejected General De Gaulle’s independence by proxy in 1958. West African countries formerly colonized by France have not shifted in disposition from that view held by Lagos. One can surmise that their relationship with Paris has strengthened as concretised by Cote d’Ivorie civil war including deployment of French troops twice in the last decade. To all intents and purposes French design on West Africa is rather a fait accompli in the face of emerging geopolitical power reconfiguration.

One of the main reasons of French unfettered dalliance is attributed to spineless foreign policy and diplomacy of Lagos and later Abuja in the last few decades. What should have been Nigeria’s sphere of influence is now open house of intervention as floundering domestic politics and absence of stature take hold. One doesn’t need to be a geologist to appreciate the wealth of mineral resources and huge deposits in the national territories and their continental shelves. In the face of increasing Chinese influence and investment, and declining fortune of European economies; new gunboat diplomacy in unleashed through US al-Qaedarisation of foreign policy has emerged. This time Nigeria is further encircled by new realities to the blindness of politicians and mandarins in Abuja.

The ongoing invasion of Mali by France and United States under the guise of ‘war against terrorism’ made it clear that recolonisation of Africa by United States is no longer a theory or approximation. Anti-terrorist statements are red-herrings. There is no evidence suggesting that any of the so-called Islamist/terrorist groups in Africa threaten United States or her interests. There is no evidence that the so-called Islamist/terrorist groups possess capacities to open fronts or sustain their initiatives independently without active (non-African state) support. Evidence is rather pointing to their existence as proxies for invasion of countries with massive mineral resources.

Now Nigeria is in the crosshairs of United States. While many Nigerians are apt to project positive relationship with Washington DC, evidence clearly shows that despite Lagos and now Abuja significant efforts; Washington DC prefers sub-letting diplomatic initiatives to London. This is the reason for apparent ambivalence of United States engagements in Africa with minor deviations here and there. What Abuja failed to foresee was that her intervention in Liberia and Sierra Leone were the high noon of her West African policy as Paris recalibrated her interest hence to tighten the noose and isolate Abuja further. This was clearly displayed few months ago in Nigeria’s reprehensible sending of troops to Bamako under UN mandate to serve under French high command. Contrast this development with Abuja’s docility as Boko Haram runs rampage.

Few weeks ago, Nigerien government signed an agreement with United States (Africa Command) to station drone airbase near Niamey.  Niger is already under Paris armpit with huge interest in uranium mines and other mineral resource investments. It is interesting that reaction from Abuja is not forthcoming. Nigeria is the real deal in Africa irrespective of weak leadership and pulverising domestic politics. The distance between (possible site) Diori Hamani International Airport, Niamey, Niger and Sokoto, Zaria and Abuja are 213 km, 416 km and 476 km respectively. 5 other countries are within 300 km buffer radius of this site. The proximity of this future drone base to Nigeria’s frontier is ominous and significant as drones will increase capacity for spying and real-time data/information gathering along the long border with Niger and potentially within the country. Complemented by constellation of civilian and military satellites, and on-the-ground human assets, drones will provide real-time voice and video intelligence in a classic cyper-spatial lockdown. It will be naïve to suggest that these drones will not penetrate Nigerian airspace and compromise her territorial integrity while Abuja sinks deep in malfeasance and corruption.

Nigerian US-phile commentators will be hard-pressed to justify this move by an ally. What these individuals failed to realize is that for decades now Nigeria and albeit Africa have no viable constituency or credible interlocutor in the United States. Congressional Black Caucus is as ineffectual as it is currently worthless. In this instance Dr Martin Luther King Jr. died with his dream and Malcolm X anticipations are fulfilled.  With this singular measure, Nigeria is fully encircled as the other prize in Africa after DR Congo. With disarray in governance and domestic politics, one can conjecture that increased stature of Boko Haram and her recent off-shoots will excuse proper invasion in time with minimum footprint. AFRICOM is in Africa to stay as violent and unprovoked bombardment of Libya plus execution of Col. Muammar Gaddafi is too vivid to dismiss.

The timing of al-Qaedarisation of US African policy is significant considering that 8 years of former President George Bush 2 focused attention on Iraq and Afghanistan. Now it took an African-American president of United States to back-stab with unadulterated violence and unprovoked attacks. Irish-Americans cannot imagine assault on Ireland, Armenians-American will not tolerate bombardment of Yerevan while Israeli-Americans will not enable targeting of the ‘standing’ aircraft carrier of Middle East alias Israel.

However it is clearer by the day that while Washington DC pivots in Asia to forestall Beijing, real war is actually taking place throughout Africa through unprovoked attacks to facilitate unfettered access to large reserves of mineral resources, arable lands and water resources. Unfortunately Nigeria is too weak domestically and diplomatically to complain talk less of mounting effective push-back. Change of top US diplomat from Mrs. Hilary Clinton to Mr. John Kerry seems like consolidation of Al-Qaedarisation/drone diplomacy than detour despite the latter’s mentioning ‘Nigeria’s fighting corruption’ in his opening statements. The current and emerging encirclement has a twist with French driving face and US rear seating of this troubling diplomacy. One can perceive the success of the French scoop in a perfect realignment of her African policy complementing US interest.

Evidently, in the face of geopolitical realignment, convergence of interests and pursuit of these interests via al-Qaedarisation/drone diplomacy; the so-called giant of Africa has regressed abysmally into micro-existence. In the absence of effective counter-initiative from Abuja, and in defiance of Kissinger doctrine that nothing comes out of Africa; it takes an African-American president to prove it wrong with unprovoked violence enabled by no boots on the ground towards effective recolonisation.

Still it is never late to clarify the substance of ‘arise o compatriots’ or the essence in reverting to ‘Nigeria we hail thee’.