Africa between the Battle of Two Asian Pivots

Introduction

United States demoted strategic relevance of both Europe and Middle East during Obama’s first term with Hilary Clinton as Secretary of State. Apart from continuing most of George W Bush foreign policies, Obama regime demonstrated an attempt to repack containment strategies a la Brzezinski and unipolar doctrine of the New American Century. The final outcome is reconfiguration of the grand chessboard of global balance of power to contain emerging China with the Asian Pivot policy. This Asian pivot is a full spectrum containment policy including but not limited to military option. Considering that US projection of power diminished or dismissed potent reaction of Moscow, nevertheless its implementation has resulted in Moscow’s breakout to pivot in Asia. We’ll attempt to navigate through the geopolitical jungle on how these developments will reflect on Africa.

Last Man Standing

In a previous piece I attempted to make a geopolitical case for the broadness of US Asia Pivot policy of containing Beijing to include but limited to relocation of strategic and convention military assets to the Pacific. I stressed that US AFRICOM is part of the full spectrum of the policy to mitigate mineral resources supply lines of China from Africa. It is long standing policy of US since 1945 not to tolerate any competition in the global stage and the demise of USSR in 1991 provided a triumphant and hubristic conclusion. Of course such investment in geopolitical celebration seem to ignore lessons of history or where it was understood, resources were mismanaged & misplaced.

It is the triumphalism of assumed unipolar world dominated by Washington DC that led her to openly choose the part of self-destruction. In any case global domination simultaneously by military and cyber forces is perceived as fait accompli.  Africa’s resistance to US overtures especially US AFRICOM was led by Ghaddafi since most of the continent leaders were either weakly running the show only in their capitals or are simply on the throes of stagnation. Nigeria was muddled as a baggage of potential with increasingly diminished diplomatic profile of a client status.

Enter the Dragon

By the time Deng Xiaoping rendered his own version of ‘riches is good’, USSR was on its deathbed as Gorbachev struggled with its life support coupled with ineffective dual doses of perestroika and glasnost. Beijing could only source for mineral resources from around the world at market prices in other to sustain her emerging role as the factory of the world. One must always understand Beijing’s motive for dropping Marx for Adams on the economy.  Potential loss of power albeit in a violent counter-revolution by over a billion people is non-trivial expectation hence strategic adoption of market economy is rather doing politics by other means. Internal stability and unchallenged maintenance of power are the primary objectives of Chinese Communist Party.

Therefore Africa offered Beijing rich opportunities to invest, pay at world prices, extract minerals and transport raw materials back to China.  Angola and Nigeria added to her crude oil sources while DRC and other country opened up precious/rare mineral reserves.  Underlying these developments is strong US ambivalence on Africa summarised in Henry Kissinger’s dictum that nothing good comes out of Africa which was punctuated by 3 events; 1970s – 1980s awashing of US weapons for various wars of liberation crystallised in the final push for Angola in the war between Washington DC & Havana by proxy, unleashing of World Bank/IMF structural programme of austerity/debt inflation and emergence of HIV/AIDS.

A number of developments enabled Chinese economic expansion into Africa after her 1970s ill-fated attempt to engage in liberation wars. These include US diminution of her only nuclear rival, Moscow; US investment of huge geopolitical capital in the precarious Middle East especially on the Israel-Palestinian file, Israeli invasion/occupation of Lebanon, Iran-Iraq War and Gulf War 1. The more unstable each case became the more US got involved even after suffering heavy day losses in 1982 Beirut Truck Bombing. Two items foreclosed US involvement in Middle East; ensuring Israeli pre-eminence and undisputed control of Gulf crude oil.

Full Spectrum Self Destruction

By the time US ‘won’ the Cold War, USSR finally laid to rest, Russia emerged weak and confused, Europe finally pacified; Washington DC seemed to have reached its geopolitical zenith. The apparent consolidation and sole dictation of global events was insufficient prize as new frontiers were mapped out for accumulation. In the meantime European Union had garnered enough feathers to attempt serious flight while NATO gradually moved eastwards unopposed by a hapless Moscow. Whatever happened in 2001 allowed United States to advance her new programme of global domination forward with hubris and miscalculated judgements.

Dual invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq with the most lethal weapons ever made by man presented cheap military victory, inter-generational social disasters and minimal real positive objectives at years turned into a decade plus. In the decade of warring, Beijing consolidated her African expansion to the point of rendering World Bank/IMF irrelevant. US distraction and side shows ran by London & Paris still didn't allow many African countries rooms to manoeuvre coupled with mismanagement, huge debts, instability, crumbled infrastructure and lack of vision/innovation.

China’s non-interference in other country’s internal affair and US distraction offered Africa new options in an emerging geo-economic space for trade, finance and investments all in US dollars.  China-Africa summits suddenly became new features in international events calendar. Prudent management of these windfalls is an important subject for critical examination across African capitals. However Beijing was focused on her strategic interest to ensure ‘a peaceful rise’.  Apparently Africa from Clinton era had gradually became a serious subject as a space for actual domination or (military) re-colonisation not her peoples but her rich geology. This will mean further reduction of London & Paris influence. This is the making of US AFRICOM.

The Bear wakes from Hibernation

Moscow’s humiliation a la Boris Yeltsin is gradually reversed by Putin nevertheless without commitment of global power projection rather with expectation to be counted an indispensible serious player on the world stage.  Unfortunately Putin and Russian elite since Peter the Great have a historical predilection of over seeking Western attention. The same conclusion can be drawn on Moscow’s disinterest in Africa which USSR accentuated it with hierarchical classification of communist orthodoxy that relegated African players at the bottom. Havana tasted Moscow’s modus vivendi in the conclusion of Cuban Missile Crisis with Kennedy-Khrushchev rapprochement behind the scene as Fidel Castro painfully acknowledged.  

The second coming of Putin was on the back of Medvedev misjudgement in giving US green light on ‘humanitarian intervention’ to destroy Libya in 2011, in the process eliminate the sole resistance to US AFRICOM operating freely in Africa with the murder of Ghaddafi.  Another expression of Russia’s retrogressive view of Africa!  Putin must have absorbed the lesson and when Damascus’ turn came for vaporisation with Hellfire & Tomahawk missiles, Moscow objected, blocked potential ‘intervention’ and offered strategic solution. US were not only saved humiliation, Arab world was lifted up a bit while Tel Aviv consolidated her pre-eminence in the area with Tehran waiting with uncertainty on the wings.

Curiously US policy was churning out success in Kigali and Kampala in the genocidal frenzy in the Democratic Republic of Congo leaving nearly 6 million dead. A bequeathal to Mobutu! These arrowheads on the east African flank grew their profiles, received huge military aid from US and consolidated their leadership with unchallenged political structures. Addis Ababa played the regional policeman in Somalia while seamlessly accepting Beijing’s investments.

West Africa has been sinking for a long time with Nigeria running a client show in declining stature and diplomatic misery. Libya’s invasion simply opened the door to further destabilise West Africa for ‘humanitarian intervention’ and disrupt Chinese investment where applicable. Though South Africa is a BRICS member with medium-sized diplomatic weight, it broke ranks to vote for US invasion of Libya in 2011. Africa is caged with increasing number of US AFRICOM military instructors and drone bases across the continent to ‘fight terrorism’!

Moscow Asia Pivot

It is difficult to estimate the depth of lessons Moscow learnt from its 2008 war with Georgia. One can suggest little as NATO continued her eastward match. In 2014 finally Kiev offered Moscow a grand opportunity to reconsider her foreign policy, revalue her history in Europe and simulate her future interests/security. In deciding against military response to the Kiev provocation, Moscow reaped huge dividend which added to her urgency in recalibrating her disentanglement from the US economic machine. Washington DC miscalculation in Kiev presented Moscow an entree to finally establishing an independent payment system (cutting out Visa & MasterCard), advance the use of rouble in trade and finally accepting that her future partly depends on developments in rising Asia starting with China.

The recent past $400 billion gas deal signed with Beijing to supply gas via pipelines for at least 30 years is significant & in contrast signals categorical economic pivot in Asia. While global trade in US dollar is declining, this deal opens the door wider for trade in basket of currencies which may exclude US dollars. China finally obtains secure energy supply lines with minimum interdiction. While Russia secures an alternative market in a near-perfect diversification strategy. The era of bilateral trade in national currencies is finally returning with national central banks on the throes of losing their ‘cherished independence’.

It cannot be challenged that most of the deal will be paid for in Yuan and Ruble which further diminishes US dollar profile hence US hegemony.  With large high income populations across Asia particularly in India, energy demand will surely rise. With Pakistan & Afghanistan currently the sick men of Asia geo-stability, secure pipeline encirclement of Asia from Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan will be fait accompli in a few years despite US resistance. 

European uncertainty and disunity led by a weak Germany on isolating Moscow indicates that many capitals are willing to defy Washington DC to preserve their strategic interests. France publicly rebuffed US leaning to cancel her defence contracts with Moscow. Berlin’s ambivalence is testified by the robust & unflinching position of her business elite on their Russian investments. Curiously these investments have potential opportunity to be conveyed in Euros & Ruble further restricting US dollar.

Which Way Africa?  

Africa is not in the position to defy or resist US. Nigeria is already lurching between failed-state status and moribund existence despite possession of huge mineral and human resources. The unending freefalling of Naira is matched against dominance of US dollars in trade coupled with members of Washington DC consensus serving as Economy and National Planning ministers.  However with increasing profile of Beijing through various financing and investment vehicles, African capitals may have to renegotiate old contracts and draw new deals in Yuan.  African central banks may have to adopt stronger positions to enable Beijing freer hand in their economies with greater injection of Yuan despite the challenges to their domestic markets. In any case these central banks have huge potential in dealing in basket of currencies as diversified investment portfolios with capacity of negotiating improve trade terms.

Without pursuing illusions, African countries have a long way to go especially French colonised countries whose national reserves are held in the French Treasury without accountability from Paris. Close cooperation is required for African countries to make positive move which ensuring domestic stability in their internal affairs. Gradual reversal from poorly negotiated & lopsided EU free trade agreements is necessary. Whether such moves will be countenanced by Beijing in the long run is a matter of conjecture. In the meantime Beijing lacks the capability to protect her strategic interests overseas militarily hence the apparent threat of US military. In the mean time Africa has the potential of swimming between the tides of geopolitical powers as the older template of international balance of power is giving way.

US is caught in a precarious position as a result of ill-defined foreign policies especially over priority on Middle East. With Middle East in tatters and seriously weakened, the windfall of resistance will move towards Tehran elevating her as the regional power as US reluctantly concede the errors of Iraq invasion.  An Iran freed from encumbrances of US containment and military bases will surely project power through expansion of internal investments, welcoming Asian investments, securing Syrian file and reinvigorate trade with Europe including in oil & gas sales. Most of these potentials may inevitable lead to increased activity in a basket of currencies with a diminished US power only able to tolerate and manage her strategic interest without recourse to military force. This is a lesson for African capitals and courageous policy makers.