Introduction
The current phase of non-state
violence concentrated in the northern part of Iraq didn’t present any new scenario
divorced from predicted consequences of US invasion and occupation of the
country. However, some observers and
analysts on the region seem to accept the worn out mantra akin to stability is
the goal of invasion and occupation. On the contrary, it is the thesis of this
piece that Sadaam’s Iraq has ceased to exist rather new geographies are
emerging as consequences which will in time stabilise depending on a number of
factors.
Shock & Awe
States are no different from
products on a shop floor, they have both manufactured and expiry dates. The day
in 2003 United States unleashed her menacing weapons of military destruction
signalled the end of the Iraq as a cohesive and viable state. All the excuse of
‘freedom’ and ‘democracy’ are fig leaves of propaganda which fooled many
observers. Dismantling of Iraq institutions including the armed forces opened
the space for new non-state players from within and beyond to fill the gap with
an indeterminate timeline. In the absence of coherent Shock & Awe and
Divide-and-Conquer policy it was only a matter of time before the social,
cultural, political and economic consequences start to unravel.
While it is indisputable that US
‘immobile warship’ in the region, Israel, benefitted; the prediction of having
a single beneficiary from this debacle was foolhardy. Naturally without firing
a shot Tehran’s influence elevated in the new Iraq as most representatives of
the majority Shia Iraqi lived at different times in Iran. This was a natural outcome of electoral
representation based on majority a la sectarianisation. The new majority were
not fooled that theirs is the usual Iraq from Basra to Mosul. The Kurds often regarded as the biggest nation
without a state gradually positioned to capture opportunities despite clear
awareness of repeat of geopolitical betrayal in a tough neighbourhood.
3 Countries from 1 State
Despite genuine nostalgia and
misplaced focus on nation-state system, the shifting sand of decade-long
violence and instability opened an avenue to reshape alliances and realities
within Iraq’s contiguous space. Among other things, the new players now
striving for attention and positions are to all intent and purposes greenhorns playing for a diminished crowd faced with new complex realities. The underlying
factors that empower all the players despite allegation of sectarianism in the
Anglo media is the ever presence of crude oil.
In the face of the fact that
nation building and institutional development takes very long, it is very rich
for destroyers to give lessons in construction.
There is no evidence that democracies are constructs for advancing
desires of minorities even to the point of suggesting inclusive frameworks to
accommodate niggling issues. In a sense democracy in one space is dead. So an emerging pattern of space of power has
concentrated in 3 locations and these are akin to 3 distinct geopolitical
spaces. There is Baghdad which is the epicentre of Shia Iraqi activism and is
conterminous to most locations south of Baghdad parallel. There is sufficient
crude oil to ensure its viability and sustainability. Of course calling the instigator
of Shock & Awe to ‘target bomb’ rivals albeit compatriots by Baghdad
exposes the complexity of negative outcomes.
From a geopolitical dimension the
guiding hand of Tehran is sufficient to modify and deflect military and
geopolitical encroachment on this entity. Its internal stability will be
initially shaky given the high stake attention to religious affiliation
exploited as raison d’être in post-Sadaam era.
In the central and northern parts
of Iraq dominated by Kurds, post-1991 Gulf War no-flying zone opened the way
for constructive policies of the first Kurdish state in living memory. As the
most viable and most stable/dependent of
the 3 entities, politicians in the area are consolidating their grips on power
and as well as meandering through the geopolitical minefield not least in the
recent past sale of crude oil via Turkey with Ankara’s connivance. One must
realise that Iraqi Kurdistan is landlocked and is surrounded by disparate
interests and historical challenges. Kurds everywhere in the region will surely
need recognition of preponderant capitals i.e. Ankara, Damascus & Tehran to
express their self-determination.
Fillers on Kurdistan’s moves from these capitals maybe difficult to
discern but may be not strategically accommodating. There is an absence of
viable policy in Ankara on dealing effectively with latest Kurdish political
maturity and its implication for Turkish Kurds.
The swath of space around Central
Iraq including its western borders with Saudi Arabia and Syria can be termed
the Sunni Iraqi Heartland. This is the crucible of fast changing alliances, the
space most active in dissolving the erstwhile Iraq as their geopolitical
currency apparently eliminated the usual boundaries. The coalition of Sunni
Iraqis as equal victims of savage sectariansation may end up being mere pawns
in a high stake game. The main contradiction overhanging the existence of their armed groups is the
conundrum of recognising international borders of which in Syria they are regarded
as anti-Assad and supplied with weapons & materials to boot, but as they
cross into Iraq they are presented as rational agencies for inclusion even
possible candidates for violent overthrow in Baghdad. So in their desperation
for power, they are manipulated and presented as rejecters of international
boundaries while they are simultaneously injected in its buoyant narrative.
For the Sunni Iraqis who have
benefited from power for nearly 2 generations, sudden expulsion from power has
proven cathartic, dangerous, contestable and opprobrious. The space will be a land-locked entity tied
to the geopolitical dexterity of Riyadh. It has borne major cost of Shock &
Awe with little or no institutions capable enough to guide requirements and
implementation of popular will. Time will tell if the current alliance
controlled by Riyadh will stand the test of time.
King Crude Oil
The short-term beneficiary of the
current conflict and brazen onus towards balkanisation of Iraq are the crude
oil companies. Rising oil prices stemming from the conflict has increased
profits as production remain unchanged for OPEC and non-OPEC producers. However
the new reality only exposes many fragile economies within and beyond the
region to new costs which cannot be replaces hence over time, economic growth
figures will start dipping.
In terms of viability of these
new entities based on their crude oil production capacities, Iraqi Kurdistan
and Shia Iraq are best placed to move into the next phases to consolidate their
gains internally. Ankara may not be constrained to take advantage of Kurdistan
in the short run as Erbil may have little room to manoeuvre. Awareness of threat from Sunni Heartland and
Iran may soften serious ambitions which imply clearly that Iraqi Kurdistan’s
fate as mentioned earlier is tied elsewhere.
As United States overreached
herself as the trigger of these developments, her credibility on many sides is
seriously dented that cooperation prospects are dim. Her current demand on
Baghdad i.e. for Prime Minister Maliki to resign confirms her limbo position.
Moscow’s warnings and ambivalence added to Tehran’s new composure albeit suspicion has placed Washington DC is an uncomfortable position. United
States is caught between serious face-saving gesture, an admission of guilt and
hardening of position. For each move to be effected, a Gordian knot must be cut
& pleasant surprise on the home front.
In the End
Nation-states as expressions of
human political instinct in specific locations cannot be denied even in the face of wrong policies.
While it is very early to suggest that wrongs have been righted and rights have
been wronged, Iraq as a result of colonial intrigue rested on Sykes-Picot
Accord is dead but not buried. New spatial and political realities have
supplanted and dismembered erstwhile power base into 3 spatial contiguities
expressing their majority populations’ dispositions. United States geopolitical
machinations and power projections including military imposition have revealed
limited benefit if any to its interest. Nevertheless, with no clear moves toward
stability and attention spilling beyond each of these new boundaries; weapon
supply, armed conflicts and violence may continue to be part of the new spatial
realities for some time. Truly, there is
no easy way out.
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