Introduction
Post World War 2 security and
stability around the world provides curious spatial patterns, relationships and
trends. Despite the natural disposition to take each new conflict as it emerged
rather than on its merit (which is mostly absent), deeper appreciation of each
conflict is the avoidance of isolating them. By collating all the conflicts
over longer periods of time in specific locations, better understanding of these
conflicts will become clearer in terms of their timing, specific theatre,
mineral/political resource at stake, motives, players, instigators, weapons
suppliers and funders. Full capture of these variables over time and space
allows for wider scope for informed & contextual analysis disparate from
mantra of the usual suspects who are rather unbeknown investors in Weaponistan.
Weaponistan
It is not a place rather an
existing context and phenomenon of the times with regard to weapons and
conflicts. Weaponistan is associated with interlocking, networked &
powerful individual geopolitical hierarchical relationships connecting
political, media, economic, infrastructure, weapon production, mineral
extraction, logistics interests etc.
These are sections of crème de la crème of the global power elite with
no fixation for countries but concentrate on specific interest at a given
period. Based on an overriding ‘grand strategy’ of the hegemonic power
currently emanating from Washington DC, these are investors in perpetual
conflict as a sustainable development.
By leveraging the instruments and assets of the state, state interest in
conflated with narrow elite interest towards extraction and accumulation of
targeted interest accelerated by violence perpetrated by investment in a cycle
of perpetual conflict.
USSR Exit
The dynamic of conflicts in the
cold war hung on the premise that since both nuclear armed superpowers cannot
confront each other in detente, then the whole world becomes open space of
conflict investment. There were few conflicts where both superpowers were on
the same side which was an exception. An example is the 1967 – 1970
Nigeria-Biafra War. In most cases, all conflicts were proxy battles wedged
between Moscow and Washington DC, both sides supplying killing equipments and
killing advisers in a sustainable development akin to Murder Incorporated a la
Bruce Springsteen.
The 1991 demise of USSR changed
the geopolitical calculus that left United States only standing, even though
there is no evidence Washington DC defeated Moscow as the myopic, triumphalist
& hubristic mantra goes. As this change sank in with parallel expectation
that post WW2 peace will finally reign, no such thing happened. Rather
conflicts were spatial reconfigured, displaced and reinforced. Weaponistan did not shrink rather
its sales boosted as the movers and shakers sought for higher profits around
the world mostly for states seeking her defensive posture.
Under Washington DC Watch
Since US hegemony hubristically
consolidated without inhibition, rather with renewed vigour against any
suggestion of challenge Washington DC moved to expand its military asset
including military bases and associated hardware to provide conditions for new
conflicts in Africa, Middle East and Asia. Interestingly South America finally escaped
from the clutches of perpetual (ideological) conflicts leaving only Colombia to
hold the can of worms with FARC.
Defence budget of South American countries
have increased with purchases of US hardware mostly except Venezuela where Commandante Hugo Chavez revolutionised her military doctrine, her
defensive capability and sourced new suppliers of hardware. By shifting attention to Moscow as her major
supplier, Caracas invested huge resources to purchase ready materiel, training
and capabilities to prevent supply hostage of erstwhile suppliers. Weaponistan grew fatter! As the new mission against
‘terrorism’ took shape, Weaponistan took a shine in permitting United States to
open 2 new war fronts in quick succession in Afghanistan and Iraq.
These
conflicts regardless of their origins have only one beneficiary, Weaponistan.
With trillions of dollars creamed off huge treasury bonds and trades in dollar
as global reserve currency, expensive weapons were purchased and deployed to
fight ‘terrorism’ which in the process created new dimension of the same
conflict or new conflicts from the old theatres. By so doing these conflicts
are easily manipulated to sustain for long periods in the same old name of ‘war
against terrorism’. War for the sake of
war!
When the so-called ‘terrorists’
are compared with sophisticated and advanced US military machine, the odds are
very high in favour of the latter. However if these conflicts are subjected to
forensic analyses it becomes clear that these are not conflicts where clear
victory or completion is the objective. The grand strategy is perpetual
conflicts which stakeholders of Weaponistan perceive as sustainable
development.
The interlocking relationships between political animals and
captains of weapon industry are very dense that instruments and other resources
of the state are commandeered in disguise to sustain unsubstantiated threats.
Iraqi conflicts has recycled in
the last decade from 1991 kicking Iraqis out of Kuwait, to protecting the Kurds in
the mountains with Non-Fly Zones, 2003 seeking exit of Sadaam Hussein, to giving
Iraqis ‘democracy’ & ‘freedom’, to current balkanising of Iraq with no clear strategic
follow-up plan. Fast forward to destabilisation of Syria and 'unveiling' of ISIS whose
‘caliphate’ is coterminous to areas with huge crude oil deposit and struggle to
clarify the fate of Iraqi Kurdistan.
Why should ISIS or their handlers seek Baghdad
with such rich deposits at hand? Who is ISIS master/handler? Just a division of
Weaponistan deployed to distract in a maze of obvious contradiction! Forget
about the religious scarce, a detritus of deliberate misinformation! So Weaponistan is unperturbed. US is ‘back’
to Iraq with new advanced weapons which they refused to supply to Baghdad
despite receiving payment. Mistakes are not deliberately made more than once
without strategic initiative or purpose.
The cauldron of Middle East
continues to boil under US watch whether it is Israeli attack on Gaza,
destabilisation of Syria, maintenance of open border & easy movement of
assets between Arabstan and Afghanistan. Middle East is sustained as the main
theatre of the biggest weapon space and market for over 5 decades. Middle East
is now sure bet of serious conflict every 3 years, huge arms purchase every 5 years and
daily news of conflicts as a 'therapy' a la Anglo media.
One may even go as far as to suggest that
Middle East is a metageographical metaphor dedicated to conflict and uncertainty. This case is unfolding as an unstoppable reconfiguration of geopolitical reality
in the metageography sweeping round with some player struggling to
understand, contain or take advantage of it.
By and large the metageography
has failed as a political project as it has become a huge island of instability where apparent
conflict winners seem to be real isolated losers despite heavy investment in
the best Weaponistan has to offer. It equally carries the potential of finally
humbling United States as a superpower. Suggest that it maybe US graveyard!
US AFRICOM in bloom
As USSR gradually wound down
under the double toxic doses of perestroika and glasnost, tectonic changes
started emerging across Africa. With the
last geopolitical duel finally shifting against US in the 1988 Battle of Quito Cuanavale Angola showing the hand writing on the wall for Apartheid South
Africa. It was only time before Zaire’s Mobutu had his last smile. Of course
Chinese economic onslaught continues profitably and unprotected, Africa was
obviously open, unprotected and attractive in her rich geology.
As a contested continental
territory despite deliberate distraction in the Middle East & Afghanistan,
US did not stomach challenge in a distant backyard. By creating US AFRICOM, an instrument of
recolonisation of Africa by force of arms was deployed initially sleeping in
Germany, another conquered space in the heart of Europe. Time will open up for
real action with wider spatial implications especially in those real estates
with richer geologies and Chinese investments.
Despite Nelson Mandela’s frothing at the mouth, he betrayed his people
in his 'evening' Damascene neoliberal conversion.
Earlier Djibouti in the eastern Horn was opened up as
a military base for ‘war against terrorism’ where drones take off and land.
Prior to that 1993-1995 Somalia’s drubbing of the sole superpower brought it a pyrrhic
victory that made it ungovernable. Somalia is not a waste land, her geology and
continental shelves paint a different story. Weaponistan knows it very well.
Hence the many East African countries pretending to do peace-keeping while
seeking for exploration concessions!
The processes that unleashed
Rwandan genocide have converged into state building, clientism and export of
destabilisation to former Zaire (DRC) with over 6 million murdered while its
rich mineral resources are looted. Limb-cutting Belgian Emperor Leopold didn't that foresee
he’ll be bested in his blood-letting game even by African sons farther east in a geopolitical
high risk game. Even by armies without states!
In 2011 the sole obstructer of US
AFRICOM had his country decimated and dismantled, with it the last figment of
Africa independence went in his murder. Now Libya’s presence is defined by a struggle
of complexity and existential inconclusion. Weaponistan ensured normality of violence to
vapourise peoples of this glorious land. China and Russia investment got lost
with no compensation as Africans were murdered without dignity. No democracy,
no freedom and no peoples to reap the promised benefits; only blood, tears and
death remain in abundance. Libya's oil is gone by stealth.
Mali in time followed as the
usual suspects descend on the territory with the usual excuse targeting sands,
inselbergs and isolated habitat. Failing France pretend to take the lead when
it can no longer justify its erstwhile role as a European power in European
theatre. Bamako is now ‘humanitarian’ heaven with credible humanity as
Weaponistan devises means to control her rich gold veins among other rich
mineral deposits.
Finally the giant of Africa that
refused to fly gave up her wings. Fluctuating between conflict investments,
Weaponisation recently used Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND) to extract tribute and ‘settlement’ from Abuja
and then disappeared. In its place, Boko Haram rose to prominence and is riding
towards becoming the 37th state of Nigeria with increasing capturing & retention of territories. Nigeria’s defence
ministry’s part of Weaponistan has failed to deliver despite huge budgets which
may have been lost in translation.
Conclusion
As Iraq is showing clearly,
Weaponistan has an investment cycle with potential to sustain itself so far
purchase and utility is available. This can be referred to demand with purpose.
Weapons can be purchased for either offensive or defensive requirements. Since
the end of USSR, conflicts have remained sustained in Middle East, spatially
displaced in various locations in Africa and lately taken hold in Afghanistan. These conflicts and sparks of
instability leave a trail of events, action and resources only attributed to
the complex activities of Weaponistan mostly under the imprimatur of the sole
superpower, United States.
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