New Chinese High Speed Link Thai Offensive & Geopolitics

Map of Proposed HSL Thailand Network original sourced from Guardian

Introduction

The recently announced deal between Bangkok and Beijing for Chinese investment to upgrade and integrate Thailand rail system into her high speed link (HSL) is significant on many levels. Nevertheless the timing and scope of the project contains important geostrategic and geopolitical dimensions which must be understood vividly. This understanding must be articulated with openness towards the gradual reconfiguration of global economic power in the Asia and the shifting of emphasis on ongoing challenges of hegemonic imperatives.

Domestic Insertion

The deal in itself is a domestic victory for the military government in Bangkok as it reconfirms its legitimacy to the local audience especially the elite with evangelical contamination & connection to the western neoliberal actors. Nevertheless it is equally a coup de grace and assertiveness to Western partners who harbour sense of illusion for the absence of an elected government. For the most part the deal (though the details haven’t fully emerged) offers Bangkok investment benefit of Chinese funding, procurement of HSL system and transfer of HSL technology. One can only affirm brilliance of Bangkok military leaders for such geostrategic decision that equally elevates Thailand into new heights of development in the future.

It is equally important to stress that for Beijing, this is a testament of her pragmatic view of Bangkok as a pillar of stability in the region as well as a reconfirmation of her maxim of non-interference in other country’s domestic affairs.  This is a huge weight of legitimacy for Bangkok.

Chinese Western Front

Contrary to some analysts’ limited conclusions, this project potentially has important benefits for China beyond the unpacked enigma of dominance by sections of western media. Western part of China is trailing the eastern part in the economic boom and economic growth. Increasing the role of Kunming as south-eastern regional hub connected with HSL will surely elevate her profile in trade, interaction and mutual integrations between China and South East Asian countries. Strategically Kunming and the rest of western China may have the opportunity to advance their economic development channelled through greater interaction with Thailand, Laos, Malaysia and other countries in the contiguous neighbourhood.

Thailand Incorporated

For China to maximise integration and upgrading of Thai railways as a gateway to its western part, it is imperative that railway development is the first of many investments necessary for obtaining full-spectrum benefits of interaction and economic development in the long term. There is no doubt that Thailand as a whole will become an epicentre of Chinese economic diplomacy and activities with huge multi-phased investments.

Direct connection between Chiang Khong, Thailand and Luang Namtha, Laos is inevitable in order to maximise efficiencies although Ventiane may need to be assuaged (if possible) for such deal to progress. Such a deal will actually diminish in the short-term Laos apparent strong role in contributing to Beijing economic & transportation blueprint. Empirically one must appreciate Laos small population, smaller market and land-locked geography. If such a deal is clinched it means that Chinese goods & freights picked up from any southern Thai seaport will travel uninterrupted overland to China. This makes Thailand a space of security, durability and dependability. This is a geostrategic coup for Bangkok.

New seaport and railway investments on the eastern coast opposite Surat Thani in the South (avoiding the national parks) must complement cost-reduction, increased efficiency while providing fully integrated transportation system serving Chinese interest and if possible upstaging other dominant players within Thai economic space. The long term benefits to the Thai economy and population will be massive in complementing her current initiatives towards positive enhancement across the country.

Asian Pivot a la Containment

There is no doubt that for Beijing this so-called HSL diplomacy is a nuanced response to United States containment policy labelled Asian Pivot. No hegemonic power tolerates challenge, and if required military confrontation is deployed following series of ill-fated policies. It is interesting to note that the HSL project avoided Vietnam while touching small footprint of Malaysia in its southern most point before stopping in Singapore. The consideration is significant because as time goes on South China Sea may become to all intents and purposes a conflict space as part of US policies challenging Beijing’s supremacy in the region.

Beijing may have calculated this scenario and is responding proportionately. With Philippines and Vietnam leading legitimate ownership challenge of the sea (based resources in the) area and in addition to Beijing’s intransigence to amicable settlement; recent re-militarisation of Japanese Armed Forces and increasing US incursion will surely generate uncertainty for commercial sea transportation as far as Beijing is concerned. South China Sea will always be the ‘weak spot’ and underbelly for potential destabilisation of China in the short to medium terms.

With Middle East and Arab world almost eliminated from serious global geopolitical significance bar crude oil sales, Europe neutered militarily and politically & Russia satisfied with global power devoid of dominance beyond her near-abroad; United States is unconstrained despite her economic woes to discomfort Beijing closer to home.

Thai in the Pivot

One can only surmise that Bangkok is focused on sustaining her vital strategic and national interests. With interaction and diplomatic experiences with China for over a millennium, close social and cultural & economic exchanges over this period and beyond offers her tangible tools to ensure stability and survive in a potentially uncertain neighbourhood. With India on the western flank and China in the north, and US smouldering of decline as evidenced recently in her undignified retreat from Tripoli, Libya; Bangkok needs to re-calibrate new geostrategic and diplomatic tools for a nuanced navigation of the potential choppy waters of Asia in the post-cold war era. There is no doubt that as Asia turns into the new global economic epicentre and powerhouse, Thailand will surely obtain a sizeable share of the strategic pie.