Friday 12 September 2014

Ebola and Unravelling Global Geopolitical Reconfiguration

Introduction
The recent outbreak of Ebola virus in parts of West and Central Africa has projected a new dynamic in the relationship between African countries on one hand and their collective relationship with the so-called great (fading) powers. While the lethal nature of this virus is undeniable, it presented an opportunity for some global players to consolidate their myopic geopolitical designs on Africa through among other tools sustained misinformation, regressive reinforcement of counter-productive imagery of African peoples and deliberate attack on their own strategic economic interest. Nevertheless some African players have displayed astute and formidable response by eschewing panic and remaining open for business. These responses are the focus of this article.

Beyond Viral Attack
Ebola virus is one of the most lethal diseases to hit the scene. Its potency is amplified by the lack of a viable antidote. Baring noisy responses from the usual suspects, the primary geographies and states where the outbreak reoccur have no reason to avoid investment in drug research for an effective antidote. The idea that the so-called powers including Russia were sending experts to monitor and collect samples from victim-patients who they will not/never cure spoke volumes. 

There is no doubt an opportunity is identified by these powers towards development of vaccine not just to cure the disease but equally to extend their biological weapon stockpile. While some Africans perceive these actions as anti-Africa (which is of course misplaced), Ebola outbreak has real geopolitical implications and Africa in this case is the battleground while Africans will be the desperate and unrewarded guinea peas.

Managed BreakOut
Depending on the timeline of the current outbreak, in each country of outbreak the initial phase was highly localised in the cities or its outskirts and are clearly unmanaged due to poor investment in public service and accessible health care. There is no solid evidence indicating that it is beyond the capacity of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone governments to provide their citizens with adequate preventive health care system. These 3 countries have passed through conflicts of one kind or another in the last 3 decades, with the guns silent the leaders/elite should have invested in durable peace and stability.

The inexcusable absence of health facilities and lack of investment in resources offered few openings for the capitals to manage their expectations in questionable templates. The movement of an Ebola patient from Liberia under Liberian government imprimatur to Nigeria by air is not an accident. Nothing stopped the patient from making a b-line to United States or to Europe if obtaining the biggest attention is the priority. This is a dangerous move by Monrovia despite huge investment and resources made to bring it to stability. Abuja no doubt must take notice of this underhanded diplomatic foray by Monrovia.

However if other variables are fused together, it becomes apparent that some warfare is afoot. Strangely Monrovia allowed herself to be outmanoeuvred in a case of deadly biological weapon thereby threatening Nigeria’s national security. Nigeria has been struggling with weak governments at all levels, she is currently challenging by a non-state military actor and the government is running on diminished legitimacy. 

Considering that Liberia is more than a US client with huge US listening post on her territory, it makes sense that Nigeria is chosen as the first reception point of Ebola package to disconcert, intimidate and further destabilise the country. The patient not only died but other health professionals that attended to him equally died.

It is curious that other foreign doctors who contracted the virus in Sierra Leone and Liberia were evacuated by their countries under appropriate quarantine conditions and are given undisclosed treatment on arrival ensuring their survival.

Rapid Response
While western media doodled with misinformation when Middle East & Russia are not the priority, they continued their well-worn lines of diminution of Africa and African peoples. Nevertheless events started unfolding rapidly as various African governments rose to the challenge. Nigerian government timely marshalled out human and material resources to check, monitor and contain Ebola virus within her territory and entry/exit points. Within the country in places of interest including public and private sphere prevention kits were set up for all visiting citizens to ensure they do minimise potential contact with Ebola.

Huge information drive took over the airwaves across the country. You will be surprised that while Europe including many migrant Nigerians is riding on waves of apocalyptic demise of Africa, Nigerians on ground and other Africans refused to be locked down as they moved about their business. A sharp response and rebuke to the erstwhile masters of the world, the so-called great powers! It was clear that Nigeria was and remains open for business to those genuinely interested in advancing their mutually beneficial proposals/investments.

The main entry/exit airports/seaports/border post were equipped with professionals and equipments to check, monitor and identify and manage any case of Ebola arriving/departing in real time into/from the country. The organisation was excellent, professional and coordinated. There is no way anyone could slip through the net.

Air Opportunity
One of the initial reactions of Europe to Ebola outbreak was assuming positions of negative distraction. Europeans have recently been driven to zealous and obsessive anti-Russian position contrary to their collective strategic interest that Ebola offers little posture beyond knee-jerk reaction. French zeal amplified the knee-jerk action quite expectedly as Paris banned Air France flights to affected countries and flights to France directly coming from those countries.  Full flights were taking off from various European airports to West and Central African destinations filled with mostly Europeans. 

If one reviews French foreign policy on Africa in the last decade, evidence of incompetence abounds, originality of strategy vanishes, rather what become clear is a re-emergence of self-destructive erstwhile British lapdog strategy a la Sarkozy and now Hollande. In these policies and failures, you simply confirm the decline of the French state.

Now a strong African airline took the advantage of the situation as its hub turned into a beehive of flights to various African destinations including Conakry, Monrovia and Freetown. While on a recent rendezvous at this impressive city hub, I was deeply impressed that this great country and her airline seamlessly adapted to pick up profit that the French deliberately abandoned. It also expresses the problematic defining how French elite are disconnected from French people. French elite myopia at home and abroad is increasing at astronomical rate with only political and economic stagnation as dividend.

Africa Open for Business
While North America and Europe have decided their fates in a geographical limited world through violent expansion of interest and imposition by force of arms including pathological obsession with Middle East, Africa being both past and current victim of these designs is limping into a new era. This is contrary to Kissingerian conclusion that Africa is not a space of positive outcomes. Africans in various countries of the continent are working assiduously towards creating stable spaces for economic revival, political consolidation and economic development.

Ebola virus is not a threat to the lofty expectation dismissed by the West. China is part of this burgeoning partnership for nearly 2 decades and the partnership is still going strong. Dividends of the partnership are mutating across the continent with peculiar and unique contradictions albeit in a forward direction. It is rather sad and questionable that Russia is not part of this renaissance. As a great power without global geopolitical design of imposition, it is a combination of naivety and geopolitical miscalculation for Moscow to deprive herself of a strategic economic foothold in Africa.

Conclusion
Ebola virus recent outbreak has exposed weakness of many global players, reinforced the viability of Africa as a space of potential, a space of economic development and a space of progress. Within Africa, many countries with their unique structures are reforming their strategic relationships with various powers based on their unique experiences and expectation. The West is gradually retreating from Africa leaving only US gun and boots while China continues to display strategic depth in engagement, interaction and investment.


Ebola virus outbreak and responses has presented interesting local & geopolitical impacts and rightly place the burden of insight and positive action for future direction on African leaders and elites. So far they are on the right track.

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