Tehran – Master of Strait of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb?

Adjusted Map showing Bab el Mandeb (l) and Strait of Hormuz (r)

Introduction

While United States is whipping up sentiments to reactivate regime change programme through re-engagement in Syria via attacking DAESH, an indeterminate guerrilla with no fixed assets; a more significance event is taking place under the radar. This is a far more strategic move with far more serious geopolitical implications. The Houthis in Yemen who have been fighting the central government in a coalition with other parties for years have finally reached Sana’a and took power few days ago. This is a clear testament to the on-going reconfiguration of global geopolitical and geostrategic calculations. 

Clash of Capitals

Yemen is a country that attracts headlines of which most readers have no clue why such a small country should be the fixation of large western media corporations. Yemenis are Arabs and mostly Muslims. This is not a resource-rich country neither does it have a buoyant economy. Apparently, many news reports about the country are linked to the proverbial ‘war against terrorism’. Nevertheless its location is the most strategic and has been so for millennia. It holds the keys to and also the door to and from the Red Sea (to the Suez Canal).

For decades since its unification, many sections of the county’s population have been expressing their frustration with the central government and its inability to share what remains of the national wealth, lack of investments, lack of public service and domination of power by certain sections of the population especially the Sunni Muslims. In the last decade it has been appropriated into a space of struggle by US against 'terrorists' without 'boots on the ground'. Drones are the weapons of trust and choice, the victims/collateral damage surely are Yemenis.

This internal conflict possesses regional and international dimensions. The Sunni power brokers have the support of Saudi Arabia and Riyadh has made good on her interest by utilising her military to attack the opposition in the past. The opposition directed by the Houthis are mostly Shia in religious persuasion with tacit support or rather looked favourably upon by Iran. It must be appreciate that what is going on in Yemen is not a religious conflict rather a domestic conflict with proxy dimensions for Riyadh and Tehran.

Finally

In the last few days the Houthis finally entered the capital, Sana’a, and effectively took power. This action has serious implications no matter how much it is diminished. For Saudi Arabia it is a serious diplomatic and geopolitical blow as it means that Tehran is finally at the door. Given differences between both capitals including Tehran’s grievances against Riyadh dating back to the Iran-Iraq war, there is guessing of discomfort in the Saudi diplomatic and foreign relations departments. 

This outcome if sustained will force Riyadh to recalculate its position in the region especially in Iraq and Syria in terms of her long term interest beyond violence-diplomacy. It will have to revalue relationships with her allies especially United States as it is unlikely they are unaware of Houthi moves to take power hence diminishing the Sunni/Saudi card in Yemen.

Giant Prize on a Plate

With the Houthis finally in power in Sana’a, the Shia crescent has bulged in the south. If they sustain and hold power with stability in tow, then certain known views of current geopolitical configuration is bound to metamorphose. This may make Tehran the strategic master of 2 very significant geographical locations in the world. These 2 locations are the choke-points tied to the bloodline of global economy as nearly 50% of global crude oil (tankers) pass through the Strait of Hormuz (Iran) daily and almost 90% of East-European trade passed through Bab el Mandeb (Yemen).

The Strait of Hormuz is the trap door of the Persian Gulf while Bab el Mandeb is the trap door of the Red Sea. Iran to an extent may become the sole holder of the keys to these 2 highly significant geopolitical doors. There is no doubt that Other geopolitical players are taking note. 

These are highly significant locations with huge geostrategic and geoeconomic implications for Tehran. Global energy security architecture will be reconfigured as Tehran is strengthened by this strategic development. Curiously the loss of Yemen to Saudi Arabia (in her backyard) and if the loss is sustained in short and medium terms, it is inevitable that US is further exposed and will have to accelerate her rapprochement with Tehran. United States will surely sustain her energy supply lines which may result in her active demotion or relegation of Riyadh while Saudi Arabia has little room to manoeuvre but to accept reality as fait accompli vis-a-vis Tehran. This also potentially opens opportunity for enhancement of Beijing-Tehran military relationship with a naval base in Bandar Abbas, Iran, just at the door of Strait of Hormuz. Interesting!

An interesting outcome remains the fact that while US increased her military investments to contain Tehran, the effect continues in regressive trajectory. Only time will tell whether the emerging dispossession of Yemen from Saudi Arabia a la United States will deepen or fold in the face of aggressive reactionary full spectrum response by Washington DC. It is a complex reality with no easy answer.